View in Natural Gas and Soybean given on 28.10.13........

1. Commodity Insight
28th October, 2013
Commodity
Exchange
Turnover (Cr.)
MCX
20631
NCDEX
3625
Rate
Rate
Gold
Silver
Crude
USDINR
Turnover of 25.10.13
28.10.13
1351.10 $
22.56 $
97.72 $
61.44
25.10.13
1351.90 $
22.54 $
97.87 $
61.55
Up / Down
- 00.80 $
00.02 $
- 00.15 $
- 00.11
Natural Gas
Fundamentally, Natural Gas future for October
delivery on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)
is trading in sideways range from last four weeks that
is between 215 on lower side and 238 Rs./mmBtu on
higher side. In NYMEX Natural Gas is trading around
$3.60 levels after testing high of $3.86 last week. The
U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its
weekly report earlier that natural gas storage in the
U.S. in the week ended Oct. 11 rose by 77 billion
cubic feet, just below bearish forecasts for an
increase of 80 billion cubic feet. Inventories
increased by 54 billion cubic feet in the same week a
year earlier, while the five-year average change for
the week is a build of 75 billion cubic feet. Total U.S.
natural gas storage stood at 3.654 trillion cubic feet
as of October 11. The recent government shutdown
disrupted publication of data this month. Mild weather
in the U.S. during autumn tends to prompt
businesses and homes to throttle back on air
conditioning or heating, which cuts into demand for
natural gas at the country's thermal power plants.
Technically, Natural gas prices has been moving up from past few months, we have seen prices moving up
from low of Rs.192 to a recent high of Rs.257.10 i.e. a return of approx 30%. Looking at the trend it
seems, that the upside momentum will continue in near future. So for short term one can initiate long
position in Natural Gas for the targets of Rs.245.
In Long term, i.e. for next two months we expect Natural Gas prices to move up and touch levels of
Rs.300. So anytime dips in prices till Rs.215 or Rs.205 should be used as buying opportunity for the target
of Rs.260 and if prices are able to break and give close above Rs.260 than further bullishness in prices
can be seen till Rs.300. We continue to hold our bullish view in Natural Gas for next few months.
Soybean
Fundamentally Indian soybean futures is trading in narrow range of Rs.230 from last four weeks that is between
3660 per 100 Kg on higher and 3430 on lower side. The early onset of the monsoon this year had initially led to
expectations of an early harvest, but the recent late rains in parts of central India have dampened these hopes.
Good demand in spot markets and as late monsoon rains over the growing areas of central India raised
concerns over the quality of the crop. Heavy rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, largest producer of soybean in country,
in the last few days can deteriorate quality of the crop that is ready for harvesting and supplies in spot market
may also get delayed.
India could export as much as 5 million tonnes of Soymeal in the year from Oct. 1, 2013, a rise of about 25
percent on the previous year, as Asia's top exporter of the animal feed finds strong demand from Iran and
Thailand.
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2. Commodity Insight
28th October, 2013
Technically, Soybean has given good upside
move of Rs.400 in last few months we have seen
prices moving up from Rs.3350 to Rs.3824 i.e. a
upside move of more than 15%. As the upside
was sharp so there should be some consolidation
or correction in prices from present levels but the
overall view remains positive. So for short term
dips in prices till Rs.3650 or Rs.3600 should be
used as buying opportunity for the target of Rs.
4000.
For long term, i.e. for next two months, Soybean is
expected to move up and touch levels of Rs.
4500. So in short term if there is any correction in
prices till Rs.3600, than it should be used as
buying opportunity for the upside target of
Rs.4200 and Rs.4500. We maintain our bullish
view in Soybean for next two months.
Natural Gas Chart
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3. Commodity Insight
28th October, 2013
Natural Gas Trading Range

Natural Gas today’s trading levels 220-227

Intraday Support @ 220-224 and Resistance @ 226-227

Intraday Trend Down, Sell on rise....…

Sell Natural Gas @ 224 SL 227 TGT 220….
Open Calls
Date
Type
of
Call
Commodity
Initiated Price
Stop
Loss
Target
28.10.13
Buy
Copper Mini
447
443
452
28.10.13
Buy
Zinc Mini
118.75
117.5
120.25
28.10.13
Buy
Lead Mini
135.2
134.2
136.3
28.10.13
Sell
Gold Mini
31330
31500
31000
Closing
Price
Comments
Spread Calls
Date
Type
of Call
Initiated
Price
Commodity
Stop
Loss
Spread
Target
Spread
Comments
Report by: Sumeet Bagadia
(Head - Commodities & Currencies Research)
sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com
Yogesh Khatri
(Senior Research Analyst)
yogesh.khatri@destimoney.com
Kunal Kame
(Research Associate)
kunal.kame@destimoney.com
Madhav Bana
(Research Associate)
madhav.bana@destimoney.com
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4. Commodity Insight
28th October, 2013
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