1. Commodity Insight
21st October, 2011
Turnover of 20.10.11 Commodity Rate Rate Up / Down
21.10.11 20.10.11
Exchange Turnover (Cr.) Gold $ 1621.90$ 1612.90$ 09.00$
MCX 71565 Silver $ 30.52$ 30.28$ 0.24$
NCDEX 5799 Crude $ 86.11$ 86.07$ 0.04$
USDINR 50.2425 49.83 0.4125
Copper
Fundamentally, demand from China is rising as stocks in
Chinese warehouses have declined, China is tapping into
the LME owned Asian warehouse. Demand from Japan is
also increased after massive earthquake hit Japan this
March. International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported
that copper market will be in a 201,000 tonnes deficit this
year, the low prices and sustaining Chinese demand may
be setting the floor for copper prices to scale new highs.
Copper is trading at very low prices which can be used as
a good buying opportunity for investors. Orders for copper
have been strong in Asia especially from China.
Technically, Copper has been moving down from 440 to
330 Rs i.e. a correction of more than 25% in last two
months. Copper has major support at 330 levels and on
higher side has resistance at 380 levels. It’s better to play
with support and resistance for next one week to ten days.
Copper can move in a range of 330 to 370.
In Long term, we expect Copper prices to move up. On higher side it has potential to touch levels
of 420 and 470 again in next two to three months. Copper if breaks major support of 330 then
there is a possibility that prices can come down till 310 or 300 levels, but any such fall or
correction in prices should be used as buying opportunity for the target of 420 and 470. We
maintain our bullish view in Copper.
Soy Oil
Fundamentally, Soya Oil is facing downward pressure after rising new arrivals in domestic market and
weak global cues. The country's Soya production in the current crop year that started Oct. 1 is likely
to rise about 15% to 11.65 million tons, according to the Soybean Processors Association of India,
adding more pressure on prices. Indonesia reduced export tax on refined palm oil to 10% compared
to 22.5 % prior on crude palm oil. This had negative impact on the edible oil industry in India which
kept prices under pressure. Palm Oil exports of India during September decreased by 6.3%. Indian
government kept the base tariff of edible oils unchanged which is hindrance for edible industry in
India. Base tariff has remained unchanged from 2006 and is less than 50% of current market price on
which import duty is incurred.
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2. Commodity Insight
21st October, 2011
Technically, Soy Oil has given a correction of approx 15% in
last one month. It has major support at 570 levels and on
higher side soy oil has potential to touch levels of 670 again.
So in short term if there is small correction in prices till 600 or
590 Rs. then it should be used as buying opportunity for the
target of 650 and 670 Rs.
Soy Oil is bullish till the time prices are trading above the
support levels of 570, if prices break and give close below 570
Rs than the commodity can get bearish for the target of 530
and 510 Rs. We maintain our bullish view in Soy Oil till the
time prices are trading above the major support of 570 levels.
Copper
COPPER - 1 KG - 1 MONTH (355.000, 355.000, 339.000, 342.450, -13.1000)
470
460
450
440
430
420
410
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
Relative Strength Index (34.9370) 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Volume (213,230,000) 30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
x10000
27 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 16 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31
2011 February March April May June July August September October November
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3. Commodity Insight
21st October, 2011
Daily Trading Range
Copper today’s trading level are 339-360.
Intraday support @ 339 - 344 and Resistance @ 355 - 360.
Intraday Trend Sell on rise.
Copper Sell @ 355 SL 360 TGT 347 - 344 …..
Open Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Closing Comments
of Price Loss Price
Call
st
Almost 1 TGT
20.10.11 Sell Silvermic 52700-52900 53500 51500-50700 51743 Achieved @ 51600,
Hold with SL @
52900.
20.10.11 Sell Nickel 915-922 943 860 907.70
st
Almost 1 TGT
19.10.11 Sell Silver Mini 52700-52900 53700 51500-49900 51733 Achieved @ 51533,
Hold with SL @
52900.
st
19.10.11 Sell Crude Nov 4365-4375 4450 4270-4140 4291 1 TGT Achieved,
Hold with SL @
4375.
Spread Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Comments
of Price Loss Spread
Call Spread
- - - - - - -
Report by : -
Sumeet Bagadia (Head - Commodity & Currency Research) sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com
Mohit Kothari (Research Associate) mohit.kothari@destimoney.com
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4. Commodity Insight
21st October, 2011
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