Presented at the 10th Electric Power Control Center Conference in Dublin, Ireland, June 17, 2009

1. Future System Planning to
Meet New Challenges
Stephen Lee
Senior Technical Executive
Power Delivery & Utilization
June 17, 2009
10th International Workshop on Electric Power Control Centers
Dublin, Ireland

2. Outline
• Holistic Power Supply and Delivery Chain – Foundations
for a Smart Grid
• Holistic Planning
• Raising the Bar on Reliability Standards
• Key Messages
– Focus on Benefits to Cost Payback
– Consider all parts together (Holistic approach)
– Remove deficiencies in foundations
– Implement new solutions
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

3. EPRI Report on Holistic Power Supply and
Delivery Chain (Report #1018587)
• Presented and used in
Brainstorming session in
support of NASPI (North
America Synchro-Phasor
Initiative), October 2008
• Presented at Carnegie
Mellon Smart Grid
Conference, March 2009
• Major building blocks to
create real values from the
Smart Grid of the future
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

4. End-to-End Power Delivery Chain Operation &
Planning
Power Plants
Transmission System
Distribution System
Fuel Supply System
Renewable Plants
Fuel Source/Storage
Energy Storage
End-uses & DR
Controllers
Sensors
Data Communication
M
ZIP
Wide Area Control
Dynamic Power Plant Models Dynamic Load Models
Monitoring, Modeling, Analysis, Coordination & Control
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 4

5. Foundations Need Strengthening
• End-to-End Situational Awareness
• Alarm Management and Real-Time Root-
Cause Diagnosis
• Dynamic Models of all Generators and
Loads
• Faster System Restoration
• System Integrity Protection Schemes
– Faster reflex actions on wide-area
problems
– Measurement-based safety nets to
prevent cascading blackouts, e.g., load
shedding, islanding/separation, damping
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

6. New Solutions Are Needed
• Optimal end-to-end commitment and dispatch by ISO/RTO as
backstop for system reliability
• Virtual Service Aggregators serving as Energy Balancing Authorities
– Dispatch and control stochastic renewable generation
– Dispatch and control (and own?) large scale energy storage
plants
– Manage demand response proactively
– Manage smart electric vehicle charging
• “Virtual” Vertically Integrated Utilities
– Own/operate Generation/renewable/storage, some transmission,
& Virtual Service Aggregator
– Interstate ownership and operation (overcome NIMBY-ism)
• National/Continental Backbone Transmission Grid
– Holistic transmission planning
– Virtual RTO
– Transmission toll collection system
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/author.cfm?at_id=259
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 6

7. Potential Role of the Virtual Service Aggregator
(Virtual Vertically Integrated Utility)
Traditional
Traditional
Central Station
Central Station
Power Plants
Power Plants
Loads
Transmission Loads
Transmission
Grid
Grid
Large-Scale
Large-Scale End Uses
Renewable
Renewable End Uses
Resources and
Resources and PHEVs
Distributed PHEVs
Distributed
Resources
Resources
Real Regional
Real Regional
Large-Scale Control Center
Large-Scale Control Center
Energy
Energy
Storage Distributed
Storage Distributed
Generation
Generation
& Storage
& Storage
Financial
Settlement of
Net Difference
Virtual
Virtual Power Flow
Service
Service
Aggregator Financial
Aggregator Transaction
S
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 7

8. What is Holistic Planning?
• Holistic Planning is to develop a whole or a part of the
electric power system, with full consideration of the
WHOLE, responsive to the public, modeling all
reasonably probable scenarios of uncertainties affecting
planning as well as future power system operating
conditions, with additional tests to assess the robustness
of the system when exposed to “unlikely” but potentially
devastating disturbances or other events, in order to
achieve a system which has:
– Economic efficiency
– Adequate reliability
– Acceptable environmental impacts
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

9. Optimal Decisions
Total Cost = Tier 1 Cost + Tier 2 Cost
Tier 1 Costs Tier 2 Costs (Public Good)
(Direct Costs)
* Best Decision
Decision is not optimal if Tier 2 costs are ignored
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 9

10. Boundary Conditions
Wh
Mtc
a
–p
sis
D
Outside Boundary ow
ilo
n
Ft
Conditions
n erra
ew
Po
G
Load and Load Profile
Inside Boundary Conditions
Voltage
Operating
State – “You are here”
System Operating
Limits
Transmission and Generator
Connectivity and Topology
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 10

11. N-1 criteria
enforce possibly
uneven
reliability
N-1
Boundary = N-2
Contingency Criteria
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 11

12. Holistic Transmission Planning
• White space is the inside
of the CAR (community
Activity Room) where
operation is reliable
• Future growth requires
operating outside the white
space
• How do we expand the
grid to fit all future
Line 2-4 operating conditions
(described by the ellipse?)
Line 1-4 • CAR gives the holistic
answer by moving all
necessary walls the right
amount (increase
capacities of line 1-4 by
2500 MW and 2-4 by 1200
MW)
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 12

13. NERC TPL-001-01 (Transmission System Planning
Performance Requirements) “Raises the Bar”
• Draft 3 posted on 5/26/09 -
Comments due 7/9/09
• Loss of Non-Consequential Load or Implications:
interruption of firm transfers is no
longer allowed for certain events Need to study
(effects of cascading outages) cascading outages
• May have significant budget, siting,
permitting, and construction impacts Need to assure
on many Transmission Owners system stability
• Submit standard(s) to NERC Board – with sufficient
1Q2010 confidence
• Submit to regulatory authorities for
approval – 1Q2010
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 13

14. Concept of an MRI of Power System Reliability
Metrics
• Transmission Planners need a scanner of
the entire power grid to identify the state of
health of the whole power system
• Even seasoned planners lack a tool for an
overview of the study results from the large
volume of power flow study cases involving
large number of planning scenarios and
contingencies
• Very difficult to digest and analyze
• A MRI-like tool can be investigated
conceptually in combination with
visualization tools, using power flow cases
as the input data
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 14

15. EPRI Research Projects Helpful for Meeting
TPL-001-01
• Prediction and Online Risk
Monitoring of Potential
Cascading Modes Unlikely events with
unacceptable
Likely events with
unacceptable
More Unacceptable
consequences consequences
– ConEd, NYPA, Entergy, ISO
New England, Exelon, AEP, Risk
FirstEnergy, TriState G&T
Unlikely events with Likely events with
– Phase II acceptable
consequences
acceptable
consequences
• Fast Fault Screening for
Transient Stability More Likely
– Entergy, NYSERDA
– Phase II on system-wide
stability screening
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 15

16. Concept of Online Risk Monitor
Risk of Contingencies
8000
Tier 3 Cascade PRI = 200 MW
7000
PRI = 150 MW
Overload / Load Shed (MW)
6000
Tier 2 Cascade
5000 Unacceptable= Risk
PRI 90 MW
4000
Tier 1 Cascade PRI = 50 MW
3000
PRI = 25 MW Acceptable Risk
2000
Initiating Event
1000
0
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07
Probability of Contingency
Normal Weather Risk Exposure to One Cascading Mode
With 1 Line on Maintenance Outage &
System (6750 MW Load) Not Compliant with N-1

17. Concept of Online Risk Monitor
Risk of Contingencies
8000
PRI = 200 MW
Tier 3 Cascade
7000
PRI = 150 MW
Overload / Load Shed (MW)
6000
5000 Unacceptable= Risk
PRI 90 MW
Tier 2 Cascade
4000
Tier 1 Cascade PRI = 50 MW
3000
PRI = 25 MW Acceptable Risk
2000
Initiating Event
1000
0
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07
Probability of Contingency
Storm Increases Risk Exposure to One Cascading Mode
With 1 Line on Maintenance Outage &
System (6750 MW Load) Not Compliant with N-1

18. Conclusions
• Holistic Planning – works for central planning, free
markets or mixed environment
• What is the optimal level of reliability?
• Key Messages for Smart Grid:
– Focus on Benefits to Cost Payback
– Consider all parts together (Holistic approach)
– Remove deficiencies in foundations
– Implement new solutions
THANK YOU!
slee@epri.com
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 18