Slides for a lecture given by Steve Omohundro in Jerry Kaplan's Stanford CS22a class on "Social and Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence"

1. AI for a Better World
Steve Omohundro, Ph.D.
PossibilityResearch.com
SteveOmohundro.com
SelfAwareSystems.com
http://googleresearch.blogspot.com/2015/06/inceptionism-going-deeper-into-neural.html

2. https://www.venturescanner.com/artificial-intelligence
Venture Scanner:
1630 AI Startups
$12.2 Billion

3. https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/27/superintelligent-ai-explains-softbanks-push-to-raise-a-100bn-vision-fund/

4. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ef/Human_brain_01.jpg
86 Billion Neurons
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2776484/
http://bio3520.nicerweb.com/Locked/chap/ch03/3_11-neuron.jpg

5. 1957: Rosenblatt’s “Perceptron”
http://www.rutherfordjournal.org/article040101.html
“The embryo of an
electronic computer
that [the Navy] expects
will be able to walk,
talk, see, write,
reproduce itself and be
conscious of its
existence.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perceptron

6. 2007: Deep Learning Neural Nets
http://www.nicta.com.au/content/uploads/2015/02/deep.jpg

7. 2012: Deep Learning Successes
• 2009 Speech Recognition TIMIT: Cortana,
Skype, Google Now, Siri, Baidu, Nuance, etc.
• 2012 Image Recognition ImageNet
• 2012 Drug Discovery Merck Challenge
• 2013 Natural Language Sentiment
• 2014 Image Captioning
• 2014 Natural Language Translation
• 2015 Atari Video Games DeepMind
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_learning

8. 2,700 Google Projects Use Deep Learning!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/why-2015-was-a-breakthrough-year-in-artificial-intelligence

9. http://cdn-media-1.lifehack.org/wp-content/files/2014/07/Cash.jpg
McKinsey: AI and Robotics next 10 years
$50 Trillion
US GDP is $18 Trillion
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies

10. http://thismasquerade.me/wp-content/uploads/blogger/-84ftTg_azwY/Um8up3j4zTI/AAAAAAAABJ8/9_-dxg23UaY/s1600/9979402_ml.jpg
AI Knowledge Work: $25 Trillion/10 years
Marketing, ERP, Big Data, Smart Assistants

11. Internet of Things: $15 Trillion/10 years
100 Billion devices by 2025
Cars, Appliances, Cameras, Meters, Wearables, etc.
https://www.summitbusiness.net/images/Internet.jpg
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2014/08/22/internet-of-things-by-the-numbers-market-estimates-and-forecasts/

12. Robot Manufacturing: $10 Trillion to 2025
Work 24 hours/day
No breaks, food, medical
Don’t quit, get bored, get depressed
Work anywhere
Hazards OK
Don’t leak secrets
Work well with others
Easy to replicate
http://thisisrealmedia.com/2014/06/19/robotics-and-ethics-the-smart-car-by-ron-parlato/

13. Foxconn Technology Group
• World’s largest contract
manufacturer
• Assembles 40% of all consumer
electronics
• iPhone, iPad, Kindle, Xbox,
Playstation 4, etc.
• 1.3 million employees, $8K
salary
• Employee suicides
• “Foxbot” robots, cost $25K, 2nd
generation now
• Building 30K robots/year
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/foxcponn-apple-iphone-ipad-robot,19088.html

14. Dec. 2015: Fanuc Deep Learning Robots
http://australianroboticsreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Fanuc.jpg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-03/zero-to-expert-in-eight-hours-these-robots-can-learn-for-themselves
Deep Learning to Bin Pick in 8 hours

15. 420 Chinese Robot Companies
http://thestack.com/china-robot-market-overstimulated-291014 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/china-robots-idUSL3N0RB2WX20141028

16. Self-Driving Vehicles: $10 Trillion by 2025
Disrupt Dealers, Insurance, Parking, Finance, Trucking, Taxis
10 million jobs
http://zackkanter.com/2015/01/23/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-by-2025/
http://www.theverge.com/2014/5/28/5756852/googles-self-driving-car-isnt-a-car-its-the-future

17. https://osuwmcdigital.osu.edu/sitetool/sites/urologypublic/images/Robotics/robotic_surgery_table.jpg
Health Care: $10 Trillion to 2025
Robot surgery, medical records, AI diagnosis

18. http://airwolf3d.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/3d-printer-v.5.5-airwolf3d1.jpg
3D Printing: $2 Trillion by 2025

19. US Building construction: $960 billion/yr
5.8 million employees
http://www.aisrenovations.com/gallery/Gallery-Photo-1.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Construction

20. April 2014: Chinese WinSun 3D printed
10 houses, 2100 sq ft, $4800
http://m.newsru.co.il/realty/20jan2015/3d_house_i101.html

21. WinSun 3D printed 12,000 sq ft villa
http://3dprint.com/38144/3d-printed-apartment-building/
US Building construction: $1 Trillion/yr
5.8 million employees

22. Drones: $98 Billion by 2025
Nov. 2015: Kespry and Nvidia Deep Learning for Drones
http://mint-tek.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/commercialdronesforhire.jpg
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-market-for-commercial-drones-2014-2
http://www.flybestdrones.com/best-5-drones-with-camera-under-50-dollars/

23. AI Economy
AI Military
AI Society
Technological Unemployment
Increasing Inequality
Propaganda and Manipulation
Lethal Autonomous Weapons
Robot Terrorism
Decreased Barriers to War
Expanded Governance
Expanded Laws
Expanded Enforcement
http://orig04.deviantart.net/d4fc/f/2016/071/d/e/circuit_board_by_xxaries1970xx-d9ut9nd.jpg

24. Maslow Hierarchy of Human Needs
Self-
Actualization
Esteem
Social
Safety
Physiological
Self-Transcendance
https://alchetron.com/Abraham-Maslow-1355192-W
1943

25. Technological Unemployment?
Kai Fu Lee 50% in 10 years Eric Schmidt 0%
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/27/kai-fu-lee-robots-will-replace-half-of-all-jobs.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabets-eric-schmidt-takes-a-contrarian-stance-on-the-robot-revolution-2017-05-04

26. http://cdn0.mommypage.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/mall-robot-1.jpg http://cdn0.mommypage.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/mall-robot.jpg
http://www.sciencealert.com/a-mall-security-robot-recently-knocked-down-and-ran-over-a-toddler-in-silicon-valley

27. http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/isis-using-armed-drones

28. 7 Tesla Autopilot Accidents
Summer 2016
https://www.quora.com/Have-there-been-any-Tesla-Motors-autopilot-road-accidents
http://s1.cdn.autoevolution.com/images/news/first-tesla-model-s-crash-in-china-is-downright-painful-to-watch-photo-gallery-83839_1.jpg

29. Pedestrian Chicken
https://medium.com/@mitchturck/self-driving-cars-and-sound-cannons-an-indecent-proposal-43ebf99fafc#.m648686fv
http://www.siliconvalley.com/business/ci_29114891/driverless-google-car-stopped-traffic-violation-and-story
"We jokingly play chicken with
them when we're trying to cross the
street," he said. "You see one about
to make a right turn at a light, and
they're obviously trying to decide if
we're going to step into the street
or not. It's so tempting to sort of
step toward the curb, which makes
the car stop instantly and wait for
you to go, except you don't go.
"We're just messing with it," he
said, "to see what it'll do.”
– Zandr Milewski

30. https://i.ytimg.com/vi/FZkIk7yjZjE/maxresdefault.jpg
https://hunterwalk.com/2016/04/06/amazon-echo-
is-magical-its-also-turning-my-kid-into-an-asshole/
https://qz.com/701521/parents-are-worried-the-
amazon-echo-is-conditioning-their-kids-to-be-rude/ http://bgr.com/2016/12/30/amazon-alexa-video-funny-kid/
Kids Love Alexa!

31. https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/01/07/tv_anchor_says_alexa_buy_me_a_dollhouse_and_she_does/
Alexa Orders Viral Dollhouses!

32. Humans “Synthie” Subculture
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6V0xwxWgAA-Q9W.jpg:largehttp://www.tvguide.com/news/humans-amc-preview-william-hurt-gemma-chan/
Kids with Bot Personality?

33. 2010: Trillion Dollar Flash Crash
http://www.nanex.net/20100506/PercDrop1.png
Dow Industrials lost 9% in 36 minutes
Today: 50% of trades are automated HFT

34. Offloading Our Knowledge?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/14/upshot/if-americans-can-find-north-korea-on-a-map-theyre-more-likely-to-prefer-diplomacy.html

35. Deep Learning Neurofeedback VR Porn
https://webby-gallery-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/asset/image/entry-asset-10354/3020000000161110.jpg
Ultimate Ecstatic Experience? End of the Human Race?
Better Than Sex?

36. https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/01/07/tv_anchor_says_alexa_buy_me_a_dollhouse_and_she_does/

37. http://wisetoast.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/night-watch-rembrandt-wallpaper.jpg
Rembrandt

38. http://datanewsroom.com/the-most-expensive-paintings-in-the-world-in-one-map/
Jackson Pollock

39. http://googleresearch.blogspot.com/2015/06/inceptionism-going-deeper-into-neural.html
June 2015: Google Deep Dream

40. https://research.googleblog.com/2016/02/exploring-intersection-of-art-and.html
2016: Deep Learning Style Transfer
https://no2147483647.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/deep-learning-for-hackers-with-mxnet-2/

41. http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~sturm/research/RNNIrishTrad/index.html
AI Music Composition?

42. http://curatedai.com/
Fish
fish away
you like those long black
houses where her branches roll
where flowers hang bare
water there
for gold trees upon heaven
about some air
before thee an emerald
world among water but
her shadow there
like their bright
eye seems near
Deep Gimble II is a
Recurrent Neural Net,
trained on public
domain poetry.
AI Poetry?

43. http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/the-british-data-crunchers-who-say-they-helped-donald-trump-to-win/
Social Manipulation?

44. Maslow Hierarchy
Self-
Actualization
Esteem
Social
Safety
Physiological
Self-Transcendance
Technological Abundance
Elimination of Drudgery
Peace Through Smart Contracts
Tools for Thriving
Human Connection
Tools for Creativity
Tools for Beauty
Networks of Inspiration
https://i.imgur.com/nxBWT4A.jpg
Tools for Contribution
Dystopia Utopia
Inequality, Scarcity
Technological Unemployment
Robot Warfare
Cyber-Terrorism
Social Disconnection
VR Porn
Human Obsolescence
Addiction
Greed
Manipulated Meaning

45. https://futureoflife.org/bai-2017/

46. https://twitter.com/kcimc/status/664217437840257024/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Open Source Toolkits

47. https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/tensorflow-smarter-machine-learning-for.html https://www.linkedin.com/company/toobler
Google and Microsoft Open Source Toolkits

48. http://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2015/03/17/digits-devbox/
http://timdettmers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/gpu-pic.jpg
Deep Learning
Hardware
NVIDIA GPUs
AMD GPUs
FPGAs
Intel ConvNet core
Movidius: embedded
Mobileye: automotive
Orcam: low power vision
Qualcomm: mobile
Samsung: mobile
Teradeep: startup
Nervana: startup

49. Cloud: MetaMind, Google, Microsoft, Amazon
https://www.metamind.io/
http://googlecloudplatform.blogspot.com/2015/12/Google-Cloud-Vision-API-changes-the-way-applications-understand-images.html
http://www.slideshare.net/Azure4Research/azure-ml-webinarjuly2014
http://www.pyimagesearch.com/2014/10/13/deep-learning-amazon-ec2-gpu-python-nolearn/

50. Serial Bugs
Memory Leaks,Dangling
Pointers, Conversion Errors
http://orig04.deviantart.net/d4fc/f/2016/071/d/e/circuit_board_by_xxaries1970xx-d9ut9nd.jpg
Parallel Bugs
Security Bugs
Hardware Bugs
Machine Learning Bugs
AI Goal Bugs
AI Governance Bugs
Collective AI Bugs
Deadlocks, Race Conditions
Bad Encryption, Buffer Overflow
Rowhammer, Drammer,
Instruction Cache Leaks
Adversarial Examples,
Inscrutable Behavior
Unintended Consequences, Basic AI Drives
Loopholes, Manipulations
Crashes, Long Tails, Black Swans

51. The Three Constraints on AIs
• Mathematics
• Physics
• Cryptography
http://www.dreamstime.com/royalty-free-stock-photography-wooden-puzzle-image7733587

52. The Power of Physics
• Seth Lloyd, “Ultimate
Physical Limits to
Computation”
• Margolus-Levitin theorem
• Entire visible universe:
10^92 bits of storage
10^122 operations
• The whole universe as a
quantum computer can’t
search 500 bits
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Hubble_view_of_barred_spiral_galaxy_Messier_83.jpg
kdlIW5Ljlspn/zV4DIlsw3Kasdjh0kdfuKR4+Q3KofOr83LfLJ8Eidie83ldhgLEe0GlsiwcdO90SknlLsDd
http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9908043

53. The Power of Cryptography
Post-Quantum Cryptography
Zero-knowledge Proofs
Indistinguishability Obfuscation
Secure Multi-party computation
Bitcoin Blockchain
Energy Encryption

54. Governing Autonomous Systems
Internal: Prosocial values External: Laws, Police,
Economic Incentives
https://www.flickr.com/photos/waltstoneburner/2863583929/

55. Trusted Infrastructure
• Constrained AIs
• Trusted computation
• Trusted communication
• Trusted identity
• Privacy and safety
monitoring guarantees
• Trusted money
• Trusted reputation
• Trusted voting
• Trusted energy flows
• Trusted manufacturinghttps://www.flickr.com/photos/sanchtv/4192677571/in/photostream/

56. 2008: Cryptocurrencies
• Bitcoin and 511 Altcoins
• Decentralized consensus
• “Blockchain” ledger
prevents double spending
• “Bitcoin miners” get paid for
adding blocks
• “Proof of work” prevents
“Sybil” attacks
• Current market cap: $40B http://blog.newegg.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/bitcoin-logo-3d.jpg

57. 2015: Smart Contracts
• Ethereum
• “Blockchain with a built-in
programming language”
• “Consensus-based globally
executed virtual machine”
• Contracts in Turing complete
programming language EVM
• Summer 2014 presold more than
$18 million Ether
• “Decentralized Autonomous
Organizations” (DAOs)
• “TheDAO” disaster – $54M theft
http://francebitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Ethereum.png

58. Smart Contracts and AI
AIs enable smart contract:
• Perception
• Action
• Dispute resolution
• Design
• Constraints
Smart contracts constrain
Robots and AIs:
• AI legal framework
• Self-enforcing structures http://www.trbimg.com/img-50fe0287/turbine/ct-biz-0122-baxter1.jpg-20130121/600

59. The Future Looks Bright!
• $50 Trillion of value!
• Need governance!
• Need new ideas!
• Need new methods!
• Need AI startups!
https://spiritualmusclehead.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/justice.jpg