Comprehensive Napa Valley Housing Market Overview 01/22/11

Comprehensive Housing
Market Overview
January 22, 2011

http://stevenwblack.com

background

13 years Experience


background

Top-Producing Realtor in Napa

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background

Been through it personally

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background

Driven by passion to help other
Americans keep their homes

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we’re going to talk about

Why we’re here
Who is a ected
How it happens
What you can do


the ﬁne print

* Steven W. Black & Associates o ers
information on the state of the market
and insight into what has worked in
the past. Each situation is unique and
you are responsible for the use of
the information presented.

! Steven W. Black & Associates offers
information on the state of the market and
insight into what has worked in the past. Each
situation is unique and you are responsible for
the use of the information presented.


the ﬁne print

* Steven W. Black & Associates o ers
information on the state of Don’tmarket are happy to
the worry, we
o er help speciﬁc to your
and insight into what has workedafter this presentation
situation in
the past. Each situation is unique and
you are responsible for the use of
the information presented.

! Steven W. Black & Associates offers
information on the state of the market and
insight into what has worked in the past. Each
situation is unique and you are responsible for
the use of the information presented.


Why Are We Here?

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how it SHOULD work

Change in ﬁnancial situation

ARM Adjusts
Job Loss
Injury
etc.


how it SHOULD work

Change in ﬁnancial situation Loan Modiﬁcation

ARM Adjusts Priniciple reduction
Job Loss Restructuring
Injury (interest rate )
etc. Enabled by Federal
Assistance programs


how it SHOULD work

Change in ﬁnancial situation Loan Modiﬁcation one.
D
D
ARM Adjusts Priniciple reduction
Job Loss Restructuring
Injury (interest rate )
etc. Enabled by Federal
Assistance programs


Loan Modiﬁcation Programs


loan modiﬁcation programs

SMD
Streamlined Modiﬁcation
Process



Indy Mac Plan



Fannie Mae /
Freddie Mac Plan



Hope for Homeowners Plan
(HUD/FHA)



TARP
(Troubled Assets Relief Program)



HAMP
(Home A ordable Modiﬁcation Plan)



SMD Streamlined Mod Process
Indy Mac Plan
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Plan
Hope for Homeowners Plan
TARP
HAMP


1 SMD Streamlined Mod Process
2 Indy Mac Plan
3 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Plan
4 Hope for Homeowners Plan
5 TARP
6 HAMP


How Did the Major Banks Do
in 2009?


wells fargo *

500,000 modiﬁcations in 2009

* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com

wells fargo *

10,000 modiﬁcations per state


wells fargo *

that’s 833 modiﬁcations per month


wells fargo *

58 counties in California


wells fargo *

172 per county every month


wells fargo *

500,000 modiﬁcations ns 2009 in
10,000 modiﬁcations a state
oper
L
ib le
l ig
58 counties
f E in California
o
6
172 per %county every month


bank of america *



bank of america *

224 per county every month


bank of america *

650,000 modiﬁcations ns 2009 in
13,000 modiﬁcations a state
oper
L
ib le
l ig
f
58 countiesE in California
o
4
224 per% county every month


How it Really Works


how it really works

Change in ﬁnancial situation

ARM Adjusts
Job Loss
Injury
etc.


how it really works

Change in ﬁnancial situation Loan Modiﬁcation

ARM Adjusts Rarely happens
Job Loss ~10% include
Injury principle
etc. reduction
Where is TARP?
Where is HAMP?
...

how it really works

Change in ﬁnancial situation Loan Modiﬁcation Short Sale

ARM Adjusts Rarely happens Bank drives
Job Loss ~10% include terms of sale
Injury principle Multiple O ers
etc. reduction
Where is TARP?
Where is HAMP?
...

how it really works

ree
or - e -
FFo rre
Change in ﬁnancial situation Loan Modiﬁcation Short Sale
cl
c losu
su
o !!!
ARM Adjusts Rarely happens Bank drives !!!
Job Loss ~10% include terms of sale
Injury principle Multiple O ers
etc. reduction
Where is TARP?
Where is HAMP?
...

Who is Directly A ected?

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who is directly a ected?

home purchased in the last 13 years



home purchased in the last 13 years
that’s back to 1997



reﬁnanced in the last 13 years
that’s back to 1997


Who is Indirectly A ected?


who is indirectly a ected?

friends and family

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communities

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local businesses
schools
marriages
taxpayers


Everyone.


Who Proﬁts?


bank proﬁts *
$60

$45

In
$30
Billions

$15

3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 $0
3/10 6/10 9/10

* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com

bank proﬁts * $51 Billion
292% annual increase
$60
34% quarterly increase
$38 Billion
124% quarterly increase $45

In
$30
Billions

$15

3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 $0
3/10 6/10 9/10


How it Happens


pine st. napa

$220,000
2 Bedroom
1 Bath
$165,000 ~0.3 Acre
Regular Sale

$110,000

$55,000

870 ft2

Oct 28, 2010
Dec 10, 2010


pine st. napa

$220,000
2 Bedroom
1 Bath
$165,000 ~0.3 Acre
Regular Sale

Sold by REO
Bank owned
$110,000

$55,000

870 ft2
1150 ft2
Oct 28, 2010
Dec 10, 2010

* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected property

pine st. napa

$220,000
2 Bedroom
1 Bath
$165,000 ~0.3 Acre
Regular Sale

Sold by REO
Bank owned
$110,000

$55,000

870 ft2
1150 ft2 $50,100 devaluation
Oct 28, 2010
Dec 10, 2010
for a house 32% larger
in ~5 weeks


westwood neighborhood

$230,000
2 Bedroom
1 Bath
$172,500 ~0.12 Acre
Regular Sale

$115,000

$57,500

880 ft2

Sept 4, 2009
Sept 18, 2009



$230,000
2 Bedroom
1 Bath
$172,500 ~0.12 Acre
Regular Sale

Sold by REO
Bank owned
$115,000

$57,500

880 ft2
760 ft2
Sept 4, 2009
Sept 18, 2009



$230,000
2 Bedroom
1 Bath
$172,500 ~0.12 Acre
Regular Sale

Sold by REO
Bank owned
$115,000

$57,500

880 ft2
760 ft2
Sept 4, 2009 $81,800 devaluation
Sept 18, 2009 in 14 days


Ja
n 31
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autumn run neighborhood

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$350,000
$700,000
$1,050,000
$1,400,000


Ja
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$350,000
$700,000
$1,050,000
$1,400,000


$1,400,000

$765,000 devaluation $1,050,000
over 3 years while
bank proﬁts are at record highs
$700,000
Regular Sale

Bank owned
$350,000

* *
7

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8/2008 through 9/2010

Sa
ge
W
ay
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000


autumn run neighborhood Q1 2008 through Q3 2010

bank proﬁts*

home values


autumn run neighborhood Q1 2008 through Q3 2010

$51 Billion
34% quarterly increase

$765,000
devaluation

napa overview As of January 14, 2011

Pre-forclosure 367

Auction 444

Bank Owned 401

Total 1,212
* Source: BAREIS http://stevenwblack.com

crime rate

According to a study by Woodstock
Institute and the Georgia Institute of
Technology, a foreclosure rate of
3 percent leads to a
7 percent increase in crime*

* Source: National Association of Realtors http://stevenwblack.com

What Can You Do?


what you can do

Get Educated

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what you can do

Being here is a
great start!

Get Educated

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what you can do

Get Help

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what you can do

*
Get Help

* Or someone like us
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The Process


the process


the process

Draft a plan


the process

Real Estate
Attorney

CPA

Realtor

Financial
Advisor
Bankruptcy
Attorney

the process

Real Estate
Attorney

CPA

Realtor Execute
Financial
Advisor
Bankruptcy
Attorney

Next Steps


we are here for you

info@stevenwblack.com
@stevenwblack
Facebook
1.707.931.4700


Questions
&
Answers


ﬁnishing up

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Comprehensive Napa Valley Housing Market Overview 01/22/11

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