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Working in collaboration with
Economic Forum
8 September 2022
Provost, Innovation & Research
@ONSfocus #economicforum
Welcome to the
University of Derby
Professor Warren Manning
#DICEnetwork
Deputy Chief Economist
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics
@ONSfocus #economicforum
Welcome and
Introduction
Ed Palmer
#DICEnetwork
Agenda
10:00 – 10:05 Welcome to the University – Professor Warren Manning (Provost, Innovation & Research)
10:05 – 10:10 Welcome and Introduction – Ed Palmer, Deputy Chief Economist, Office for National
Statistics
10:10 – 10:25 Understanding the Economy – Ed Palmer, Deputy Chief Economist
10:25 – 10:45 ONS plans for subnational statistics – Abbie Davies/Emma Hickman, Office for National
Statistics
10:45 – 11:05 Q&A
11:05 – 11:20 Refreshment break with tea and coffee
11:20 – 11:40 Addressing the Productivity Puzzle: From ONS Data to the Transformational Triangle –
Professor Mark Gilman
11:40 – 11:50 Q&A – Dr Val Derbyshire
11:50 – 12:00 Closing remarks – Ed Palmer, Deputy Chief Economist and Dr Larissa Allwork, Associate
Professor, DICE
@ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
Deputy Chief Economist
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics
State of the Economy
September 2022
Ed Palmer
@ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
Food and energy are pushing up inflation
Source: Office for National Statistics Source: OECD
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Per
cent
Contributions to 12-month UK CPI inflation
Food and Energy Other CPI
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-21
Jun-22
USA UK Canada Germany Italy France Japan
Contributions to 12-month G7 CPI inflation
Food and Energy Other
Rising wholesale gas prices rises will feed
through to higher CPI
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
p/therm
(GBp)
Gas Prices: Forward Delivery Contracts
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2021 JAN 2021 APR 2021 JUL 2021 OCT 2022 JAN 2022 APR 2022 JUL
Gas and Electricity, 12-month CPI inflation
Source: Ofgem Source: Office for National Statistics
Increasing costs are putting pressure on firms
Source: Companies House
Source: Office for National Statistics
0 10 20 30 40 50
Business is not considering raising prices
Other
Not sure
Finance costs
Labour costs
Raw material prices
Energy prices
Reasons for considering price rises
All businesses All size bands excl 0-9
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Week
1
Week
3
Week
5
Week
7
Week
9
Week
11
Week
13
Week
15
Week
17
Week
19
Week
21
Week
23
Week
25
Week
27
Week
29
Week
31
Week
33
Week
35
Thousands
Number of voluntary and compulsory company
dissolutions in the UK, cumulative
2019 2020 2021 2022
Consumer confidence has fallen while people
cut back on spending
Source: Office for National Statistics
Source: GfK
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
01/1985 04/1990 07/1995 10/2000 01/2006 04/2011 07/2016 10/2021
Consumer confidence
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Using credit more than usual, for example,
credit cards, loans or overdrafts
Making energy efficiency improvements to my
home
Using my savings
Shopping around more
Cutting back on non-essential journeys in my
vehicle
Spending less on food shopping and essentials
Using less fuel such as gas or electricity in my
home
Spending less on non-essentials
Proportion of people taking measures in
response to increased cost of living
There is some evidence that pay pressures are building
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
vs
February
2020
(000s)
Employment, unemployment and inactivity
levels compared to its pre-pandemic levels
Employment Unemployment Inactivity
Source: Office for National Statistics
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2016
2016
2017
2017
2018
2019
2019
2020
2020
2021
2021
2022
Per
cent
Expected average pay settlements
Bank of England private sector settlements
Previous Agents' pay surveys
2022 expected pay settlements (January survey)
Next 12 months expected pay settlements (July survey)
Source: Bank of England
Economic effects of the Russian invasion of
Ukraine are being seen
Source: Office for National Statistics
Source: Office for National Statistics
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Do not have the required documentation / visa
Not found a job that pays enough
Other
Unable to find childcare
Job opportunities limited by physical / mental health
Not found a job with suitable working hours
Limited access to required transport
Not found a job that suits my skills
Qualifications not recognised / valid in the UK
English language skills not met job requirements
Percentage of Ukrainian adults who experienced
barriers to take up work in the UK
Forecasters are downgrading their GDP outlook for this year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Per
cent
Real-time GDP forecasts for 2022
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Pre-recession
qaurter
=
100
Quarters after pre-recession peak
Profile of volume GDP
1973 Q2 1979 Q4 1990 Q2 2008 Q1 2022 Q3
Source: Office for National Statistics, Bank of England
Source: Consensus Forecasts
Conclusions
• Food and energy are pushing up inflation, while rising
wholesale gas prices will feed through to higher CPI
• Increasing costs and prices will put pressure on
businesses and households
• Forecasters are revising down their outlook of the UK
economy
ONS Plans for
Subnational Statistics
Deputy Director
Subnational Statistics and Analysis
Division
Abbie Davies
Lead Analyst, ONS Local
Office for National Statistics
Emma Hickman
@ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
Contents
• Strategy and workplan
• Timely, granular subnational statistics and insight
• Improved dissemination
• Economic trends in the East Midlands
Strategy and workplan
GSS Subnational Data Strategy (December 21)
A framework to guide the GSS in producing and
disseminating more timely, granular and harmonised
subnational statistics, that meet user needs
Referenced in the Levelling Up White Paper as a key enabler in the Government’s ambition
to improve subnational data and improve transparency and accountability to the public
GSS Subnational Data Strategy ambitions
Produce more timely, granular and harmonised subnational statistics
Build capability and capacity for subnational statistics and analysis
Improve the dissemination of subnational statistics
Explore Subnational Statistics service
ONS Subnational Workplan
ONS committed to follow up the Strategy with a workplan
Published 16 May 2022
A cross-cutting overview of the wide range of new or improved subnational
outputs and initiatives, planned for the next 18 months, across the Office
A strong commitment for UK-wide coverage, where possible, enabled by
solid collaboration with the Devolved Administrations
Timely, granular
subnational statistics
and insight
Model-based early estimates of regional GVA
• Started publishing model-based
quarterly estimates of regional GVA
from October 2021 onwards
• Early indication of quarterly GDP,
published 5 months in advance
Source
Productivity in towns and travel to work areas
• Experimental labour
productivity data for
TTWAs and towns made
available for the first time
in December 2021
• Complements existing
annual subregional
productivity release
Source
Disaggregating annual subnational GVA to
lower levels of geography
• As part of the ONS strategy to provide more
granular data to our users
• Experimental statistics using granular
geographies as building blocks to derive GVA for
flexible geographies
• Improve our understanding of the local economy
• Provisional publication for second version Autumn
2022 Source
Improved
Dissemination
21 September 2022
Explore Subnational Statistics
• Announced in GSS subnational data strategy
• One-stop-shop for subnational data and statistics
• Standardised geographies and user-defined areas
• Prototyped as Subnational indicators explorer – second
iteration published in May 2022
ONS Local
• Commitment outlined in the white paper
• A statistical advisory service for local leaders, with
dedicated analysts based in hubs across the UK,
ensuring they have access to data, statistics and
analysis to support decision making
• Analysts based in each region, drawing on support and
resource from across the office to act as a window onto
wider ONS developments and capability
• First iteration of service to be launched this Winter
Service offer
Analytical
Teams will provide resource to scope and support analytical projects to provide
statistical insights that support decision making Strategic
Using our unique
position within central
government to
understand, identify,
and align priorities
for both local and
central decision
makers, alongside
capturing user needs
Data
Connecting local users to key government datasets, whilst also looking for
opportunities where local data can add value to central decision making
Network
Establishing local partnerships with a range of external stakeholders to bring
together regional expertise, share knowledge, and draw on research capability
Economic trends in the
East Midlands
• East Midlands showed
28% growth in GVA in
2020 compared to
1998, below the UK
average of 40%
• Within the region,
Leicester showed the
highest level of growth
in GVA, whilst Derby
showed the least
GVA
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Growth of GVA, split by ITL3 regions
Derby
East Derbyshire
South and West Derbyshire
Nottingham
North Nottinghamshire
South Nottinghamshire
Leicester
Leicestershire CC and Rutland
West Northamptonshire
Source
Productivity and industry structure
• Productivity in the east of the
region is similar to the UK
average, with some LADs in the
west showing higher than average
levels
• This is part of a belt of high
productivity stretching from the
South West towards Birmingham
• Employment in Medium
Technology Manufacturing follows
a similar pattern
Spatial distribution of industries across
TTWAs using location quotients, 2019
Source
Source
Real-time Economic
Indicators
• The number of job adverts in the East
Midlands dropped in line with the UK
average at the beginning of the
pandemic, but increased more quickly
over Summer 2020 and throughout
2021
• In July 2022, East Midlands job adverts
were roughly in line with the UK
average
• This could be driven by strong growth
in the Transport and Storage sector
Source
GDHI
Region
GDHI per
head, 2019
East Midlands £18,635
West Northamptonshire £22,227
South Nottinghamshire £20,432
Leicestershire CC and Rutland £20,162
South and West Derbyshire £20,158
North Northamptonshire £19,666
Lincolnshire £18,783
North Nottinghamshire £18,225
East Derbyshire £17,405
Derby £16,793
Leicester £13,802
Nottingham £13,381
• GDHI per head in
the East Midlands
is comparative to
nearby regions,
although slightly
lower than the UK
average
• There is
significant
variation in this
measure across
the region Source
GDHI
Housing affordability
Using annual data on house prices and
annual earning to calculate affordability
ratios for national and subnational
geographies:
• At a local level, house prices grew faster
than earnings in 91% of local authority
districts, leading to a reduction in
housing affordability in these areas.
• Average house prices in Derby were
5.08 times average earnings
• Interactive tools available to explore and
compare data.
Derby
Source
Thank you for listening
Q&A
Break
University of Derby
Addressing the
Productivity Puzzle: From
ONS Data to the
Transformational Triangle
Professor Mark Gilman
@ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
OUR MOTIVATION
To understand the reasons behind the low productivity puzzle that
prevails in the UK since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and its link
to SME growth processes
 How has the SME sector in the West Midlands been developing over the
last 20 years? (Our report 1 - “The SME Drag Effect in the West Midlands
Economy”,)
 What drives or hinders the SME growth? (Our report 2 - “Understanding
the SME Drag Effect in the West Midlands Economy – Findings of PSP
Growth Diagnostic (Survey)”)
 What can be done to stimulate SME growth, particularly after the Covid-
19 pandemic? (Our report 3)
THE WEST MIDLANDS ECONOMY: SME ‘DRAG EFFECT’
• The SME sector has been
experiencing mixed fortunes
• An increasing share of
employment but declining share
of turnover the last decade.
• A deepening productivity
problem in micro and small
enterprises in the West
Midlands (enterprises with 1 to
49 employees)
• More births but even more
deaths particularly in 2018,
leading to an overall shrinkage
of SMEs in the West Midlands in
2019
• The West Midlands share of
HGFs is still below the UK
average and fluctuating from
year to year without ensuring a
steady impact on productivity,
as would be expected from
HGFs.
Company
size 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
SMEs
in the
private
sector
None 71.3 70.5 72.4 73.8 74.8 73.4 73.9 74.5 73.7 75.5
1-49 27.9 28.6 26.8 25.3 24.5 25.8 25.3 24.8 25.6 23.8
50-249 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Total
(0-249) 99.9 99.8 99.9 99.8 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9
Employment None 14.8 13.7 15.1 15.3 16.2 15.2 15.4 16.3 15.7 16.7
1-49 33.0 31.7 31.4 30.6 30.4 30.7 30.4 30.9 30.7 29.7
50-249 12.2 12.7 12.4 12.4 12.1 12.2 12.3 11.9 11.8 11.8
Total
(0-249) 60.0 58.1 58.9 58.3 58.7 58.1 58.1 59.1 58.2 58.2
Turnover
None 7.4 6.9 7.1 6.4 6.6 5.5 6.0 6.9 6.5 6.8
1-49 30.7 29.3 29.6 27.7 26.1 22.5 23.8 26.4 27.7 24.6
50-249 14.9 15.3 14.6 14.0 12.7 11.6 12.1 13.1 12.3 12.5
Total
(0-249) 53.0 51.5 51.3 48.1 45.4 39.6 41.9 46.4 46.5 43.9
Private sector SMEs, employment and turnover in the West Midlands, by their size, 2010 -2019, %
Source: ONS, Business Population Estimates, 2019
PSP DIAGNOSTIC: To determine YOUR strengths and weaknesses & guide
YOU in developing your company strategies for growth
CHARACTERISTI
CS
EXTERNAL
RELATIONS
PERFORMANCE & PLANNING ADDED VALUE
KNOWLEDGE & RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT
Characteristics
Markets &
Competitio
n
Supply
Chain
Growth
Manageme
nt &
Strategy
Performanc
e
Measureme
nt
Innovatio
n
CSR
Technolo
gy
HR
Manageme
nt
Training &
Developme
nt
Financ
e &
Fundin
g
IAG
Age Market
distribution
Collaboratio
ns
Growth
trend (3
years)
Manageme
nt
Performanc
e measures
Product
innovatio
n
CSR
Project
s
Technolo
gy
utilisation
Investment
planning
Dedicated
budget
Financ
e
source
s
Membersh
ips
Sector Export
locations
Collaborativ
e partner
Growth
expectatio
ns
Strategic
Plan
Process
innovatio
n
Investme
nt
planning
HR
responsibil
ity
Training
days
Advice
sought
Ownership International
sales method
Customer
type
Strategic
issues
Obstacle
s
HR
practices
Training
provider
Advice
source
Management Length
international
trading
Supplier
type
Strategy
ownership
Employee
pay
Specific
skill
developme
nt
Networks
involveme
nt
Experience Market
conditions
Employee
engageme
nt
Benefit of
involveme
nt
Size No of
competitors
Working
UNDERSTANDING THE ‘DRAG EFFECT’
Performance and Planning (I)
GROWTH
How SMEs performed over the three years
• SMEs are more likely to experience rapid or steady growth in
sales revenues than profits or employment.
• SMEs seeking growth in profits are more likely to experience
rapid or steady decline.
A misconception of growth  Narrowing down ‘firm’
growth to ‘market’ growth
An over-emphasis on costs and sales can detract from
addressing wider growth issues such as productivity and
efficiency!
How SMEs perceive future growth factors
• Ability to identify ‘future’ growth factors and barriers, but not
the ‘past’ promoters and barriers.
• Difficulty to learn from past strengths and weaknesses and
reflect them on their future performance.
A lack of motivation or ability to analyse past
performance can misguide future growth aspirations!
10%
12%
17%
20%
27%
33%
63%
46%
41%
4%
10%
5%
Employment
Profit
Sales Revenue
Grown rapidly on average by more than 20% per annum
Grown steadily on average by 5-20% per annum
Remained the same varying by +/-5% per annum
Reduced steadily on average by 5-20% per annum
Reduced sharply on average by more than 20% per annum
STRATEGIC
TRANSFORMATION
MINDSET
TRANSFORMATION
DIGITAL
TRANSFORMATION
Growing your business for the future
TRANSFORMATION
TRIANGLE
MINDSET TRANSFORMATION
Do you effectively apply
management and leadership
skills into practice?
Do you understand what strategy
entails?
To what extent do you attach
importance to technology use in
your business?
How important for your business to
collect and utilise information and
advice for improved performance
What does ‘growth’ mean for
your organisation?
MINDSET TRANSFORMATION
Inclusiveness
Developing
strategy and
sharing it with
managers and
employees
Approach to
HR
Change in
organisation
al culture to
create
motivated
and engaged
workforce
Resilience
Failures as
learning
opportunities
, e.g.
successive
ventures
The way you
observe
growth
barriers
Challenges as
opportunities
Openness to
radical
changes
Awareness of
challenges
MINDSET
TRANSFORMATION
Changing the mindset of not only the managers but also the employees
Networking
Strategy
Innovation Strategy
Human
Resource
Strategy
Market
Strategy
Corporate Social
Responsibility
Strategy
STRATEGIC
TRANSFORMATION
Business Strategy
Comprehensive Growth Strategy
Not only inclusive but also an integrated approach to
strategic areas within the boundaries of the firm.
Long term perspective to Strategy and Planning with a focus on internal capability development
STRATEGIC
TRANSFORMATION
Is your management of
finance and
investments efficient?
Do you make use of
performance measures to
develop appropriate and
efficacious strategies for the
relevant business operations?
How good are you in
transforming the abstract
notion of innovation (what
innovation really is) into
concrete products and
services (how it is
managed)?
How do you strengthen your
Human Resources? Have you
thought of empowering your
employees by investing in their
training and development?
What kind of plans do
you have in place for
creating effective
competitive advantage?
Have you considered
or operationalised an
expansion into
international
markets?
Have you successfully
convert your ‘supply chain’
to a ‘value chain’ to
effectively cooperate with
your suppliers and
customers?
CHARACTERISTICS OF A COMPREHENSIVE SME STRATEGY THAT BRINGS ABOUT GROWTH
BUSINESS STRATEGY
Written strategy Staff inclusion in strategy planning Wider coverage of business areas than market development
Communication of strategy within the SME A mix of financial sources to fund investments and arising opportunities
Data collection on wider areas than accounting
MARKET STRATEGY
Quality and differentiation
strategy (niche products
and personalization of
services)
Competition (as a means
for growth, not the target
itself)
New markets
Internationalisation to
wider markets
Value chain
HUMAN
RESOURCE
STRATEGY
Long term view on HR as a
source of competitive
advantage:
-value HR practices;
-commit dedicated resources;
-strategic investment to HR
Formal pay system
Balanced average working hours
(no excessive overtime)
A variety of forms of
communication with employees
NETWORKING STRATEGY
Long-term view to
networking:
Purposeful collaboration (not
the number of but the
content of collaborations)
Aim at accessing different
sources of knowledge
Horizontal collaborations with
Higher Education Institutes
Holistic approach to market
collaborations:
Suppliers AND customers
together
INNOVATION
STRATEGY
Emphasis on knowledge and
innovation management
Lack of qualified personnel
differentiating obstacle to
innovation
Increased use of technologies
Purposeful use of technology
(integrating technology into
wider firm operations as well as
infrastructural)
Digitalisation of Value Chain
operations
More service innovations than
product, and process innovations in
supporting activities than manuf
and logistics
CSR STRATEGY
Actual
implementation of
influential CSR
initiatives
STRATEGIC
TRANSFORMATION
DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
Integrating
business
operations
digitally
(e.g. Value
Chain
operations)
Training and
engagement
of all
employees
Data analysis
– ability to
measure
wider
indicators
Data collection
on a broader
range of
performance
measures
Technology adoption for efficiency improvement
DIGITAL
TRANSFORMATION
Mindset Transformation
Employees Inclusiveness Approaches
to HR
Resilience Challenges as
opportunities
Openness to change
Understanding Human
Capitals role in building
competitive advantage
(leaders & management)
Empowering
employees:
Purpose, Mastery
& Autonomy
Creating
competitive
advantage
Key components of? Understanding the
roles of
management and
leadership.
Understanding growth –
what does it really entail
(For individuals,
organisations and
economy)?
Understanding your role in
building competitive
advantage (employees)
Engaging
employees
Managing
knowledge
Your job description on
a page: transitioning to
a new role
The art of
delegation: leaders
and employees
utilising information and
advice for improved
performance
Resistance, power and
control
Role of information
and consultation
Building
effective
culture
Embracing crisis and
change
Environmental
scanning
Understanding how to
build effective
Business/university
interactions
Strategy Transformation
Business Innovation HR Market Network CSR
Written strategy
Understanding how to build strategy
and become more strategic
Emphasis on
knowledge and
innovation
management
HR as a source of
competitive
advantage:
HPWS
Quality and differentiation
strategy (niche products and
personalization of services)
Porter?
Long-term view to
networking:
effectively cooperating
with their suppliers and
customers,
Actual implementation of
influential CSR initiatives
Understanding Corporate Social
Responsibility
Staff inclusion in strategy planning Lack of qualified
personnel
differentiating obstacle
to innovation
Value adding HR
practices;
- dedicated
resources;
-strategic
investment to HR
Competition (as a means for
growth, not the target itself)
Purposeful
collaboration (not the
number of but the
content of
collaborations)
Community – Develop local
talent, support voluntary and
philanthropic work
Wider coverage of business areas
than market development
Increased use of
technologies
Formal pay
system
New markets Aim at accessing
different sources of
knowledge
Workforce – Good recruitment
and development, work-life
balance, trust, etc.
Communication of strategy -
Internal & external
Purposeful use of
technology (integrating
technology into wider
firm operations as well
as infrastructural)
Recruitment and
selection
Internationalisation to wider
markets
operationalising expansion
into international markets,
Horizontal
collaborations with
Higher Education
Institutes
Marketplace – right products,
service, delivery, etc.
Understanding Financial Capital.
Understanding the importance of
efficient management of finance
and investments,
A mix of financial sources to fund
investments
Digitalisation of Value
Chain operations
Balanced average
working hours
(no excessive
overtime)
Value chain
Understanding relational
characteristics and
developing the value chain.
converting their supply
chain to value chain,
Holistic approach to
market collaborations:
Suppliers AND
customers together
Environment – Resources,
waste, green, etc.
Understanding Performance
measurement and management.
introducing a variety of
performance measures, and making
appropriate use of them
Product, service and
process innovations in
supporting activities
(and logistics )
Involvement &
communication
Understanding markets and
competition
Stakeholder
engagement
Human Rights – Fair wages,
non-discriminatory practices,
clean water, etc
Product/service segmentation What is Innovation Value proposition Customer
Digital transformation
Efficiency Integration of
operational
processes
Development Data Collection Data Analysis
Technology for efficiency
improvements (productivity)
Value Chain
integration
Skills and
capabilities
Broader integrated
measures
Ability to measure
wider indicators
comprehending the
importance of technology
use for their business and
integrating the right
technologies for their
business into their
operations
Value proposition: product
offering, market
segmentation, revenue model
Customer
relationship
management
Innovation Problem solving
Infrastructure
management
Value
architecture:
sensing,
creation,
distribution,
capture
Continuous
improvement
THANK YOU ANY QUESTIONS?
Q&A
Deputy Chief Economist
Economic and Microdata Insights
Office for National Statistics
Dr Larissa Allwork
Associate Professor
DICE
Closing remarks
Ed Palmer
@ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
You can set-up your own site to report
SDG-related data using Open SDG
• Open source
• Free to reuse
• Collaborative
Open SDG
The global community working
in partnership for SDG reporting
• Fully Customisable
• Data Visualisation
• Machine readable data
• UK – sdgdata.gov.uk
• Bristol
• Liverpool
• Blackpool (early stages)
SustainableDevelopment@ons.gov.uk
email the team:
@ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
13 September 2022 – Labour Market Theme day
14 September 2022 – Prices Theme day
20 September 2022 – “Green jobs”, current and upcoming work
27 September 2022 – Labour demand indicators by profession in the UK
30 September 2022 – Quarterly National Accounts
All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website
@ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
Dates for your diary
12 September 2022 – ONS Economic Forum
7 October 2022 – ESCoE - Modelling an Evolving Economy Workshop
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ONS Economic Forum - 8 September 2022

  • 1. Working in collaboration with Economic Forum 8 September 2022
  • 2. Provost, Innovation & Research @ONSfocus #economicforum Welcome to the University of Derby Professor Warren Manning #DICEnetwork
  • 3. Deputy Chief Economist Economic and Microdata Insights Office for National Statistics @ONSfocus #economicforum Welcome and Introduction Ed Palmer #DICEnetwork
  • 4. Agenda 10:00 – 10:05 Welcome to the University – Professor Warren Manning (Provost, Innovation & Research) 10:05 – 10:10 Welcome and Introduction – Ed Palmer, Deputy Chief Economist, Office for National Statistics 10:10 – 10:25 Understanding the Economy – Ed Palmer, Deputy Chief Economist 10:25 – 10:45 ONS plans for subnational statistics – Abbie Davies/Emma Hickman, Office for National Statistics 10:45 – 11:05 Q&A 11:05 – 11:20 Refreshment break with tea and coffee 11:20 – 11:40 Addressing the Productivity Puzzle: From ONS Data to the Transformational Triangle – Professor Mark Gilman 11:40 – 11:50 Q&A – Dr Val Derbyshire 11:50 – 12:00 Closing remarks – Ed Palmer, Deputy Chief Economist and Dr Larissa Allwork, Associate Professor, DICE @ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
  • 5. Deputy Chief Economist Economic and Microdata Insights Office for National Statistics State of the Economy September 2022 Ed Palmer @ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
  • 6. Food and energy are pushing up inflation Source: Office for National Statistics Source: OECD -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Per cent Contributions to 12-month UK CPI inflation Food and Energy Other CPI -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-21 Jun-22 USA UK Canada Germany Italy France Japan Contributions to 12-month G7 CPI inflation Food and Energy Other
  • 7. Rising wholesale gas prices rises will feed through to higher CPI 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 p/therm (GBp) Gas Prices: Forward Delivery Contracts -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2021 JAN 2021 APR 2021 JUL 2021 OCT 2022 JAN 2022 APR 2022 JUL Gas and Electricity, 12-month CPI inflation Source: Ofgem Source: Office for National Statistics
  • 8. Increasing costs are putting pressure on firms Source: Companies House Source: Office for National Statistics 0 10 20 30 40 50 Business is not considering raising prices Other Not sure Finance costs Labour costs Raw material prices Energy prices Reasons for considering price rises All businesses All size bands excl 0-9 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Week 1 Week 3 Week 5 Week 7 Week 9 Week 11 Week 13 Week 15 Week 17 Week 19 Week 21 Week 23 Week 25 Week 27 Week 29 Week 31 Week 33 Week 35 Thousands Number of voluntary and compulsory company dissolutions in the UK, cumulative 2019 2020 2021 2022
  • 9. Consumer confidence has fallen while people cut back on spending Source: Office for National Statistics Source: GfK -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 01/1985 04/1990 07/1995 10/2000 01/2006 04/2011 07/2016 10/2021 Consumer confidence 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Using credit more than usual, for example, credit cards, loans or overdrafts Making energy efficiency improvements to my home Using my savings Shopping around more Cutting back on non-essential journeys in my vehicle Spending less on food shopping and essentials Using less fuel such as gas or electricity in my home Spending less on non-essentials Proportion of people taking measures in response to increased cost of living
  • 10. There is some evidence that pay pressures are building -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 vs February 2020 (000s) Employment, unemployment and inactivity levels compared to its pre-pandemic levels Employment Unemployment Inactivity Source: Office for National Statistics 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2007 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 Per cent Expected average pay settlements Bank of England private sector settlements Previous Agents' pay surveys 2022 expected pay settlements (January survey) Next 12 months expected pay settlements (July survey) Source: Bank of England
  • 11. Economic effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are being seen Source: Office for National Statistics Source: Office for National Statistics 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Do not have the required documentation / visa Not found a job that pays enough Other Unable to find childcare Job opportunities limited by physical / mental health Not found a job with suitable working hours Limited access to required transport Not found a job that suits my skills Qualifications not recognised / valid in the UK English language skills not met job requirements Percentage of Ukrainian adults who experienced barriers to take up work in the UK
  • 12. Forecasters are downgrading their GDP outlook for this year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Per cent Real-time GDP forecasts for 2022 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Pre-recession qaurter = 100 Quarters after pre-recession peak Profile of volume GDP 1973 Q2 1979 Q4 1990 Q2 2008 Q1 2022 Q3 Source: Office for National Statistics, Bank of England Source: Consensus Forecasts
  • 13. Conclusions • Food and energy are pushing up inflation, while rising wholesale gas prices will feed through to higher CPI • Increasing costs and prices will put pressure on businesses and households • Forecasters are revising down their outlook of the UK economy
  • 14. ONS Plans for Subnational Statistics Deputy Director Subnational Statistics and Analysis Division Abbie Davies Lead Analyst, ONS Local Office for National Statistics Emma Hickman @ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
  • 15. Contents • Strategy and workplan • Timely, granular subnational statistics and insight • Improved dissemination • Economic trends in the East Midlands
  • 17. GSS Subnational Data Strategy (December 21) A framework to guide the GSS in producing and disseminating more timely, granular and harmonised subnational statistics, that meet user needs Referenced in the Levelling Up White Paper as a key enabler in the Government’s ambition to improve subnational data and improve transparency and accountability to the public
  • 18. GSS Subnational Data Strategy ambitions Produce more timely, granular and harmonised subnational statistics Build capability and capacity for subnational statistics and analysis Improve the dissemination of subnational statistics Explore Subnational Statistics service
  • 19. ONS Subnational Workplan ONS committed to follow up the Strategy with a workplan Published 16 May 2022 A cross-cutting overview of the wide range of new or improved subnational outputs and initiatives, planned for the next 18 months, across the Office A strong commitment for UK-wide coverage, where possible, enabled by solid collaboration with the Devolved Administrations
  • 21. Model-based early estimates of regional GVA • Started publishing model-based quarterly estimates of regional GVA from October 2021 onwards • Early indication of quarterly GDP, published 5 months in advance Source
  • 22. Productivity in towns and travel to work areas • Experimental labour productivity data for TTWAs and towns made available for the first time in December 2021 • Complements existing annual subregional productivity release Source
  • 23. Disaggregating annual subnational GVA to lower levels of geography • As part of the ONS strategy to provide more granular data to our users • Experimental statistics using granular geographies as building blocks to derive GVA for flexible geographies • Improve our understanding of the local economy • Provisional publication for second version Autumn 2022 Source
  • 25. Explore Subnational Statistics • Announced in GSS subnational data strategy • One-stop-shop for subnational data and statistics • Standardised geographies and user-defined areas • Prototyped as Subnational indicators explorer – second iteration published in May 2022
  • 26. ONS Local • Commitment outlined in the white paper • A statistical advisory service for local leaders, with dedicated analysts based in hubs across the UK, ensuring they have access to data, statistics and analysis to support decision making • Analysts based in each region, drawing on support and resource from across the office to act as a window onto wider ONS developments and capability • First iteration of service to be launched this Winter
  • 27. Service offer Analytical Teams will provide resource to scope and support analytical projects to provide statistical insights that support decision making Strategic Using our unique position within central government to understand, identify, and align priorities for both local and central decision makers, alongside capturing user needs Data Connecting local users to key government datasets, whilst also looking for opportunities where local data can add value to central decision making Network Establishing local partnerships with a range of external stakeholders to bring together regional expertise, share knowledge, and draw on research capability
  • 28. Economic trends in the East Midlands
  • 29. • East Midlands showed 28% growth in GVA in 2020 compared to 1998, below the UK average of 40% • Within the region, Leicester showed the highest level of growth in GVA, whilst Derby showed the least GVA 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Growth of GVA, split by ITL3 regions Derby East Derbyshire South and West Derbyshire Nottingham North Nottinghamshire South Nottinghamshire Leicester Leicestershire CC and Rutland West Northamptonshire Source
  • 30. Productivity and industry structure • Productivity in the east of the region is similar to the UK average, with some LADs in the west showing higher than average levels • This is part of a belt of high productivity stretching from the South West towards Birmingham • Employment in Medium Technology Manufacturing follows a similar pattern Spatial distribution of industries across TTWAs using location quotients, 2019 Source Source
  • 31. Real-time Economic Indicators • The number of job adverts in the East Midlands dropped in line with the UK average at the beginning of the pandemic, but increased more quickly over Summer 2020 and throughout 2021 • In July 2022, East Midlands job adverts were roughly in line with the UK average • This could be driven by strong growth in the Transport and Storage sector Source
  • 32. GDHI Region GDHI per head, 2019 East Midlands £18,635 West Northamptonshire £22,227 South Nottinghamshire £20,432 Leicestershire CC and Rutland £20,162 South and West Derbyshire £20,158 North Northamptonshire £19,666 Lincolnshire £18,783 North Nottinghamshire £18,225 East Derbyshire £17,405 Derby £16,793 Leicester £13,802 Nottingham £13,381 • GDHI per head in the East Midlands is comparative to nearby regions, although slightly lower than the UK average • There is significant variation in this measure across the region Source
  • 33. GDHI
  • 34. Housing affordability Using annual data on house prices and annual earning to calculate affordability ratios for national and subnational geographies: • At a local level, house prices grew faster than earnings in 91% of local authority districts, leading to a reduction in housing affordability in these areas. • Average house prices in Derby were 5.08 times average earnings • Interactive tools available to explore and compare data. Derby Source
  • 35. Thank you for listening
  • 36. Q&A
  • 37. Break
  • 38. University of Derby Addressing the Productivity Puzzle: From ONS Data to the Transformational Triangle Professor Mark Gilman @ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
  • 39. OUR MOTIVATION To understand the reasons behind the low productivity puzzle that prevails in the UK since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and its link to SME growth processes  How has the SME sector in the West Midlands been developing over the last 20 years? (Our report 1 - “The SME Drag Effect in the West Midlands Economy”,)  What drives or hinders the SME growth? (Our report 2 - “Understanding the SME Drag Effect in the West Midlands Economy – Findings of PSP Growth Diagnostic (Survey)”)  What can be done to stimulate SME growth, particularly after the Covid- 19 pandemic? (Our report 3)
  • 40. THE WEST MIDLANDS ECONOMY: SME ‘DRAG EFFECT’ • The SME sector has been experiencing mixed fortunes • An increasing share of employment but declining share of turnover the last decade. • A deepening productivity problem in micro and small enterprises in the West Midlands (enterprises with 1 to 49 employees) • More births but even more deaths particularly in 2018, leading to an overall shrinkage of SMEs in the West Midlands in 2019 • The West Midlands share of HGFs is still below the UK average and fluctuating from year to year without ensuring a steady impact on productivity, as would be expected from HGFs. Company size 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 SMEs in the private sector None 71.3 70.5 72.4 73.8 74.8 73.4 73.9 74.5 73.7 75.5 1-49 27.9 28.6 26.8 25.3 24.5 25.8 25.3 24.8 25.6 23.8 50-249 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 Total (0-249) 99.9 99.8 99.9 99.8 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 Employment None 14.8 13.7 15.1 15.3 16.2 15.2 15.4 16.3 15.7 16.7 1-49 33.0 31.7 31.4 30.6 30.4 30.7 30.4 30.9 30.7 29.7 50-249 12.2 12.7 12.4 12.4 12.1 12.2 12.3 11.9 11.8 11.8 Total (0-249) 60.0 58.1 58.9 58.3 58.7 58.1 58.1 59.1 58.2 58.2 Turnover None 7.4 6.9 7.1 6.4 6.6 5.5 6.0 6.9 6.5 6.8 1-49 30.7 29.3 29.6 27.7 26.1 22.5 23.8 26.4 27.7 24.6 50-249 14.9 15.3 14.6 14.0 12.7 11.6 12.1 13.1 12.3 12.5 Total (0-249) 53.0 51.5 51.3 48.1 45.4 39.6 41.9 46.4 46.5 43.9 Private sector SMEs, employment and turnover in the West Midlands, by their size, 2010 -2019, % Source: ONS, Business Population Estimates, 2019
  • 41. PSP DIAGNOSTIC: To determine YOUR strengths and weaknesses & guide YOU in developing your company strategies for growth CHARACTERISTI CS EXTERNAL RELATIONS PERFORMANCE & PLANNING ADDED VALUE KNOWLEDGE & RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Characteristics Markets & Competitio n Supply Chain Growth Manageme nt & Strategy Performanc e Measureme nt Innovatio n CSR Technolo gy HR Manageme nt Training & Developme nt Financ e & Fundin g IAG Age Market distribution Collaboratio ns Growth trend (3 years) Manageme nt Performanc e measures Product innovatio n CSR Project s Technolo gy utilisation Investment planning Dedicated budget Financ e source s Membersh ips Sector Export locations Collaborativ e partner Growth expectatio ns Strategic Plan Process innovatio n Investme nt planning HR responsibil ity Training days Advice sought Ownership International sales method Customer type Strategic issues Obstacle s HR practices Training provider Advice source Management Length international trading Supplier type Strategy ownership Employee pay Specific skill developme nt Networks involveme nt Experience Market conditions Employee engageme nt Benefit of involveme nt Size No of competitors Working
  • 42. UNDERSTANDING THE ‘DRAG EFFECT’ Performance and Planning (I) GROWTH How SMEs performed over the three years • SMEs are more likely to experience rapid or steady growth in sales revenues than profits or employment. • SMEs seeking growth in profits are more likely to experience rapid or steady decline. A misconception of growth  Narrowing down ‘firm’ growth to ‘market’ growth An over-emphasis on costs and sales can detract from addressing wider growth issues such as productivity and efficiency! How SMEs perceive future growth factors • Ability to identify ‘future’ growth factors and barriers, but not the ‘past’ promoters and barriers. • Difficulty to learn from past strengths and weaknesses and reflect them on their future performance. A lack of motivation or ability to analyse past performance can misguide future growth aspirations! 10% 12% 17% 20% 27% 33% 63% 46% 41% 4% 10% 5% Employment Profit Sales Revenue Grown rapidly on average by more than 20% per annum Grown steadily on average by 5-20% per annum Remained the same varying by +/-5% per annum Reduced steadily on average by 5-20% per annum Reduced sharply on average by more than 20% per annum
  • 44. MINDSET TRANSFORMATION Do you effectively apply management and leadership skills into practice? Do you understand what strategy entails? To what extent do you attach importance to technology use in your business? How important for your business to collect and utilise information and advice for improved performance What does ‘growth’ mean for your organisation?
  • 45. MINDSET TRANSFORMATION Inclusiveness Developing strategy and sharing it with managers and employees Approach to HR Change in organisation al culture to create motivated and engaged workforce Resilience Failures as learning opportunities , e.g. successive ventures The way you observe growth barriers Challenges as opportunities Openness to radical changes Awareness of challenges MINDSET TRANSFORMATION Changing the mindset of not only the managers but also the employees
  • 46. Networking Strategy Innovation Strategy Human Resource Strategy Market Strategy Corporate Social Responsibility Strategy STRATEGIC TRANSFORMATION Business Strategy Comprehensive Growth Strategy Not only inclusive but also an integrated approach to strategic areas within the boundaries of the firm.
  • 47. Long term perspective to Strategy and Planning with a focus on internal capability development STRATEGIC TRANSFORMATION Is your management of finance and investments efficient? Do you make use of performance measures to develop appropriate and efficacious strategies for the relevant business operations? How good are you in transforming the abstract notion of innovation (what innovation really is) into concrete products and services (how it is managed)? How do you strengthen your Human Resources? Have you thought of empowering your employees by investing in their training and development? What kind of plans do you have in place for creating effective competitive advantage? Have you considered or operationalised an expansion into international markets? Have you successfully convert your ‘supply chain’ to a ‘value chain’ to effectively cooperate with your suppliers and customers?
  • 48. CHARACTERISTICS OF A COMPREHENSIVE SME STRATEGY THAT BRINGS ABOUT GROWTH BUSINESS STRATEGY Written strategy Staff inclusion in strategy planning Wider coverage of business areas than market development Communication of strategy within the SME A mix of financial sources to fund investments and arising opportunities Data collection on wider areas than accounting MARKET STRATEGY Quality and differentiation strategy (niche products and personalization of services) Competition (as a means for growth, not the target itself) New markets Internationalisation to wider markets Value chain HUMAN RESOURCE STRATEGY Long term view on HR as a source of competitive advantage: -value HR practices; -commit dedicated resources; -strategic investment to HR Formal pay system Balanced average working hours (no excessive overtime) A variety of forms of communication with employees NETWORKING STRATEGY Long-term view to networking: Purposeful collaboration (not the number of but the content of collaborations) Aim at accessing different sources of knowledge Horizontal collaborations with Higher Education Institutes Holistic approach to market collaborations: Suppliers AND customers together INNOVATION STRATEGY Emphasis on knowledge and innovation management Lack of qualified personnel differentiating obstacle to innovation Increased use of technologies Purposeful use of technology (integrating technology into wider firm operations as well as infrastructural) Digitalisation of Value Chain operations More service innovations than product, and process innovations in supporting activities than manuf and logistics CSR STRATEGY Actual implementation of influential CSR initiatives STRATEGIC TRANSFORMATION
  • 49. DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION Integrating business operations digitally (e.g. Value Chain operations) Training and engagement of all employees Data analysis – ability to measure wider indicators Data collection on a broader range of performance measures Technology adoption for efficiency improvement DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
  • 50. Mindset Transformation Employees Inclusiveness Approaches to HR Resilience Challenges as opportunities Openness to change Understanding Human Capitals role in building competitive advantage (leaders & management) Empowering employees: Purpose, Mastery & Autonomy Creating competitive advantage Key components of? Understanding the roles of management and leadership. Understanding growth – what does it really entail (For individuals, organisations and economy)? Understanding your role in building competitive advantage (employees) Engaging employees Managing knowledge Your job description on a page: transitioning to a new role The art of delegation: leaders and employees utilising information and advice for improved performance Resistance, power and control Role of information and consultation Building effective culture Embracing crisis and change Environmental scanning Understanding how to build effective Business/university interactions
  • 51. Strategy Transformation Business Innovation HR Market Network CSR Written strategy Understanding how to build strategy and become more strategic Emphasis on knowledge and innovation management HR as a source of competitive advantage: HPWS Quality and differentiation strategy (niche products and personalization of services) Porter? Long-term view to networking: effectively cooperating with their suppliers and customers, Actual implementation of influential CSR initiatives Understanding Corporate Social Responsibility Staff inclusion in strategy planning Lack of qualified personnel differentiating obstacle to innovation Value adding HR practices; - dedicated resources; -strategic investment to HR Competition (as a means for growth, not the target itself) Purposeful collaboration (not the number of but the content of collaborations) Community – Develop local talent, support voluntary and philanthropic work Wider coverage of business areas than market development Increased use of technologies Formal pay system New markets Aim at accessing different sources of knowledge Workforce – Good recruitment and development, work-life balance, trust, etc. Communication of strategy - Internal & external Purposeful use of technology (integrating technology into wider firm operations as well as infrastructural) Recruitment and selection Internationalisation to wider markets operationalising expansion into international markets, Horizontal collaborations with Higher Education Institutes Marketplace – right products, service, delivery, etc. Understanding Financial Capital. Understanding the importance of efficient management of finance and investments, A mix of financial sources to fund investments Digitalisation of Value Chain operations Balanced average working hours (no excessive overtime) Value chain Understanding relational characteristics and developing the value chain. converting their supply chain to value chain, Holistic approach to market collaborations: Suppliers AND customers together Environment – Resources, waste, green, etc. Understanding Performance measurement and management. introducing a variety of performance measures, and making appropriate use of them Product, service and process innovations in supporting activities (and logistics ) Involvement & communication Understanding markets and competition Stakeholder engagement Human Rights – Fair wages, non-discriminatory practices, clean water, etc Product/service segmentation What is Innovation Value proposition Customer
  • 52. Digital transformation Efficiency Integration of operational processes Development Data Collection Data Analysis Technology for efficiency improvements (productivity) Value Chain integration Skills and capabilities Broader integrated measures Ability to measure wider indicators comprehending the importance of technology use for their business and integrating the right technologies for their business into their operations Value proposition: product offering, market segmentation, revenue model Customer relationship management Innovation Problem solving Infrastructure management Value architecture: sensing, creation, distribution, capture Continuous improvement
  • 53. THANK YOU ANY QUESTIONS?
  • 54. Q&A
  • 55. Deputy Chief Economist Economic and Microdata Insights Office for National Statistics Dr Larissa Allwork Associate Professor DICE Closing remarks Ed Palmer @ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
  • 56. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) You can set-up your own site to report SDG-related data using Open SDG • Open source • Free to reuse • Collaborative Open SDG The global community working in partnership for SDG reporting • Fully Customisable • Data Visualisation • Machine readable data • UK – sdgdata.gov.uk • Bristol • Liverpool • Blackpool (early stages) SustainableDevelopment@ons.gov.uk email the team: @ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
  • 57. Forthcoming ONS economic analysis 13 September 2022 – Labour Market Theme day 14 September 2022 – Prices Theme day 20 September 2022 – “Green jobs”, current and upcoming work 27 September 2022 – Labour demand indicators by profession in the UK 30 September 2022 – Quarterly National Accounts All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website @ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
  • 58. Dates for your diary 12 September 2022 – ONS Economic Forum 7 October 2022 – ESCoE - Modelling an Evolving Economy Workshop Further details on the above events will be published at ons.gov.uk/economicevents @ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
  • 59. Feedback For us to continue to improve and shape future Economic Forums and events, we would appreciate if you took some time to fill in our short survey. You can access the survey via the QR code below: @ONSfocus #economicforum #DICEnetwork
  • 60. Thank you for attending the Economic Forum You can keep up to date on all up coming events via ons.gov.uk/economicevents If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk
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