Cardiff Economic Forum, 13 June 2019

Economic Forum - Cardiff
13 June 2019
Twitter: @ONS #Econstats
13 June 2019

Agenda
09:30 – 10:00 Registration with tea and coffee
10:00 – 10:10 Welcome and introduction – Huw Dixon
10:10 – 10:20 Statistics for the public good – Ed Palmer
10:20 – 10:40 Understanding the UK economy – Marilyn Thomas
10:40 – 11:00 County and Regional Public Sector Finance – Foyz Khatun
11:00 – 11:15 Regional Household Income – Trevor Fenton
11:15 – 11:25 Regional GDP – James Scruton
11:25 – 11:35 Question and answer session
11:35 – 11:55 Coffee break
11:55 – 12:15 Dr Annette Roberts, Cardiff University
12:15 – 12:30 Question and answer session and close

Welcome and Introduction
Cardiff University
Huw Dixon
13 June 2019

Statistics for the public
good
Deputy Chief Economist, Economic Advice and Analysis
Office for National Statistics
economic.advice@ons.gov.uk
Ed Palmer

To discuss today
• UK Statistics Authority and the Office for National Statistics: our status and
role
• What the ONS does
• Why we are transforming
• Some examples of how we are transforming

The status and role of the UK
Statistics Authority
• An independent statutory body
• Operating at arm’s length from government as a non-ministerial
department, reporting directly to the UK’s Parliaments and Assemblies
• In law (the Statistics and Registration Services Act 2007) our objective is:
“promoting and safeguarding the production and publication of official
statistics that serve the public good”
• And that public good includes:
• informing the public about social and environmental matters
• assisting in the development and evaluation of public policy
• regulating quality and publicly challenging the misuse of statistics

Who are we?
• Economic, public policy and population statistics
• Other government Departments also provide statistics, e.g. energy, health,
environment
• Our responsibility is for coherence of system as a whole
• Census provider in England and Wales
• Office locations in Newport, Titchfield, London
UK Statistics
Authority
Other
government
stats producers
Office for
National
Statistics
Office for
Statistics
Regulation

Explaining the statistics you see in
the news: 10 June 2019

And a lot more:
GDP growth Inflation (Un)employment Wages
Trade Public finances
Regional and country
economic data
Crime
Births, deaths and
marriages
Population Migration Health and social care
Personal income and
wealth
Well-being Environment …and more

Three ways of calculating GDP
Expenditure
GDP(E)
How much
is spent
Output
GDP (O)
How much
is produced
Income
GDP (I)
How much
is earned

Three ways of calculating GDP
Expenditure
GDP(E)
How much is spent
Use of credit
card data
Retail sales
Output
GDP (O)
How much is
produced
Use of VAT data
Purchases
Survey
Income
GDP (I)
How much is
earned
Use of PAYE &
Self-Assessment
data

Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence
• National Accounts and Beyond GDP
• Productivity and the modern economy
• Regional and labour market statistics
• www.escoe.ac.uk
Economic statistics analysis, research

Economic forum- Cardiff
Understanding the UK
economy
Head of International Trade Analysis
Office for National Statistics
Dr Marilyn Thomas
13 June 2019

Contents
• GDP
• Labour Market
• Inflation
• Productivity
• Economic well-being

Real GDP increased by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2019
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
Quarter on quarter (LHS) Quarter on previous year's quarter (RHS)
% %

Growth in services output drives GDP growth in Quarter 1 2019
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1
Services Production Construction Agriculture, forestry and fishing GDP
%, percentage points

The UK economy was the fifth-fastest growing G7 economy in 2018 with signs of a
loss of momentum in the wider global economy
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
US Canada France Germany UK Japan Italy
2018 GDP growth 2017 to 2018 change in GDP growth
%, percentage points

Labour Market

The gap between unemployment and vacancies has been narrowing
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Vacancies Unemployment level
Thousands

The percentage of self-employment in total employment had an upward trend since
2000
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
%

Pay for employees (including bonuses) increased by 1.3% on the year when adjusted
for inflation
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total pay (nominal) Total pay (real)
%

Job changers experience higher pay growth compared with job stayers
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Stayers Changers
%

Younger people are more likely to change jobs
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
16 to 20 years 21 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 49 years 50 to 64 years 65 years and over

Most workers change jobs within the same region or country
2018
2017 North EastNorth West
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
South
West East London South East Wales Scotland
Northern
Ireland
North East 82.0 0.7 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.2
North West 2.8 83.8 2.8 2.2 3.2 1.1 1.0 2.1 1.3 4.4 0.7 0.7
Yorkshire and the
Humber 3.0 2.4 80.5 5.1 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.9 0.3
East Midlands 1.0 1.4 3.9 74.5 4.8 1.4 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.0
West Midlands 1.2 2.4 2.1 5.0 77.4 3.1 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.2 0.2
South West 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.9 81.9 1.2 1.6 2.6 3.3 0.6 0.5
East 0.4 1.7 2.4 6.0 2.9 2.1 77.8 4.2 3.3 1.5 0.8 0.9
London 2.3 1.6 1.9 1.2 3.2 2.2 7.3 74.8 8.2 2.1 1.6 0.6
South East 4.3 2.2 1.8 3.1 3.0 5.3 5.4 9.1 76.7 1.8 1.0 0.8
Wales 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.0 82.9 0.2 0.2
Scotland 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.0 91.3 0.2
Northern Ireland 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 95.4

Overeducation rate stood at 16.1% in 2017
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%

Overeducation was highest in London in 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
North East North West Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East of
england
London South East South West Wales Scotland Northern
Ireland
%

Inflation

12-month growth rates of CPIH and input PPI increased, while output PPI fell in April
2019
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2010 APR 2011 APR 2012 APR 2013 APR 2014 APR 2015 APR 2016 APR 2017 APR 2018 APR 2019 APR
CPIH (RHS) Input PPI (LHS) Output PPI (LHS)
% %

London is the most expensive region, with average house prices close to £200,000
higher than any other region or country
2017 2018 Change
London £480,000 £478,000 -0.4%
South £286,000 £294,000 +2.8%
Midlands £183,000 £192,000 +4.9%
Wales £151,000 £157,000 +4.0%
North £150,000 £155,000 +3.3%
Scotland £143,000 £149,000 +4.2%
Northern Ireland £128,000 £133,000 +3.9%

Productivity

Productivity, as measured by output per hour, was 18.3% beneath its pre-downturn
trend
70
80
90
100
110
120
130 1994Q1
1994Q3
1995Q1
1995Q3
1996Q1
1996Q3
1997Q1
1997Q3
1998Q1
1998Q3
1999Q1
1999Q3
2000Q1
2000Q3
2001Q1
2001Q3
2002Q1
2002Q3
2003Q1
2003Q3
2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q3
2018Q1
2018Q3
Output per hour Output per worker Output per hour (trend) Output per worker (trend)
Index, Q4 2007 = 100

London and the South East were the only regions above the UK output per hour average
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
North East North West Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East London South East South West Wales Scotland Northen
Ireland
2016 2017 UK
Index, UK = 100

Economic Well-being

Economic well-being indicators at a glance

Find out more
• Quarterly economic commentary
• Labour market economic commentary
• Economic review
• Analysis of job changers and stayers
• Overeducation and hourly wages in the UK labour market
• Prices economic commentary
• Labour productivity
• Measures of National Well-being Dashboard

Economic Forum, Cardiff
Country and Regional Public
Sector Finances
Public Sector Division, ONS
Foyz Khatun
13 June 2019

Overview
• What are the country and regional public sector
finances?
• Statistics on Wales
• Future plans

What are the country and regional public
sector finances?
• First published in May 2017
• Provides information on public sector revenue and expenditure
for NUTS1 countries and regions of the UK
• Based on methods initially developed by Scottish Government
in their GERS publication

Main aggregates
• Public sector revenue: mainly taxes, but also social
contributions, interest, dividends – measured on a ‘who pays’
basis
• Public sector expenditure: mainly wages and salaries, goods
and services, social benefits, expenditure on fixed capital –
measured on a ‘who benefits’ basis
• Net fiscal balance: gap between public sector expenditure and
public sector revenue

-40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000
London
South East
East of England
South West
East Midlands
Northern Ireland
North East
Yorkshire & the H.
West Midlands
Wales
Scotland
North West
£ million
Net fiscal balance for 2017/18, by NUTS1 countries and regions
North Sea revenue - population share North Sea revenue - geographic share
Source: Office for National Statistics

Public sector revenue, expenditure and net fiscal balance per head for 2017/18, by NUTS1
countries and regions
North Sea revenue
geographic share
North Sea revenue
population share
North Sea revenue
geographic share
North Sea revenue
population share
Northern Ireland 9,255 9,275 14,195 4,940 4,920
Wales 8,691 8,710 13,085 4,394 4,375
North East 8,938 8,963 12,604 3,666 3,641
North West 9,452 9,473 12,336 2,884 2,863
Scotland 11,230 10,986 13,682 2,452 2,696
West Midlands 9,308 9,328 11,582 2,274 2,254
Yorkshire and the Humber 9,416 9,446 11,580 2,164 2,134
East Midlands 9,883 9,906 11,146 1,263 1,240
South West 10,685 10,706 11,553 868 847
United Kingdom 11,454 11,454 12,090 636 636
East of England 11,936 11,958 10,970 -966 -988
South East 13,427 13,447 11,169 -2,258 -2,278
London 17,090 17,110 13,185 -3,905 -3,925
Public sector revenue per head Net fiscal balance per headPublic sector
expenditure per
head
2017/18 (£s)

0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
£ million
Public sector revenue and expenditure, Wales, 1990/00 to
2017/18
Total current receipts (incl. North Sea revenue by population share) Total managed expenditure

What affects revenue and expenditure?
• Population and demographics
• Economic activity – businesses, employment,
investment, etc.
• Consumer behaviour
• Regional prices
• Reserved vs devolved powers
• Many other things!

Population 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Regional GVA (£mn) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Northern Ireland 1,829,700 1,840,500 1,851,600 1,862,100 1,870,800 Northern Ireland 34,110 35,194 36,259 38,228 39,609
North East 2,610,600 2,618,700 2,624,600 2,636,600 2,644,700 North East 47,342 49,093 50,661 51,625 53,235
Wales 3,082,400 3,092,000 3,099,100 3,113,200 3,125,200 Wales 54,717 56,050 57,928 60,296 62,188
East Midlands 4,598,500 4,637,400 4,677,400 4,725,400 4,771,700 East Midlands 90,823 94,721 97,186 100,818 104,239
Scotland 5,327,700 5,347,600 5,373,000 5,404,700 5,424,800 Yorkshire & the H. 103,105 106,080 110,964 113,947 116,774
Yorkshire & the H. 5,337,900 5,360,100 5,390,200 5,425,400 5,450,100 South West 114,915 120,966 123,367 127,291 130,636
South West 5,377,700 5,423,300 5,471,600 5,517,000 5,559,300 West Midlands 112,543 118,310 122,636 128,360 133,115
West Midlands 5,675,000 5,713,400 5,755,000 5,810,800 5,860,700 Scotland 123,088 129,016 129,969 133,978 138,251
East of England 5,951,900 6,017,300 6,076,000 6,129,000 6,168,400 East of England 130,147 137,075 142,075 146,893 152,803
North West 7,103,500 7,133,000 7,175,200 7,224,000 7,258,600 North West 149,835 155,219 161,640 167,223 173,614
London 8,417,500 8,539,400 8,666,900 8,769,700 8,825,000 South East 233,619 243,585 253,290 259,458 267,114
South East 8,793,200 8,874,000 8,949,400 9,030,300 9,080,800 London 355,217 380,257 389,616 413,689 431,164
Median earnings (£) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Employment level 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
North East 20,048 20,155 20,667 21,356 21,787 Northern Ireland 790,094 806,254 826,781 836,693 822,250
Yorkshire & the H. 20,082 20,246 20,496 21,251 21,454 North East 1,128,834 1,167,171 1,172,126 1,192,163 1,219,216
Northern Ireland 18,473 19,487 20,332 20,969 21,217 Wales 1,379,158 1,385,588 1,377,796 1,451,589 1,464,727
Wales 19,725 20,032 20,574 21,000 21,500 East Midlands 2,117,625 2,188,900 2,234,885 2,254,502 2,287,882
East Midlands 20,887 20,900 21,070 21,790 22,000 Yorkshire & the H. 2,444,178 2,474,654 2,495,505 2,508,719 2,569,206
South West 20,320 20,711 21,197 21,807 22,083 Scotland 2,534,178 2,581,287 2,631,675 2,595,862 2,647,036
North West 20,578 20,718 21,050 21,622 21,986 West Midlands 2,550,787 2,565,268 2,625,621 2,665,618 2,666,568
West Midlands 20,600 20,464 21,038 21,789 22,265 South West 2,533,424 2,614,942 2,664,996 2,686,085 2,752,936
Scotland 21,522 21,769 22,470 22,971 23,176 East of England 2,855,831 2,944,062 2,990,105 3,019,718 3,026,677
East of England 23,167 23,259 23,471 24,218 24,603 North West 3,193,899 3,216,445 3,323,567 3,392,440 3,462,486
South East 23,868 24,385 24,884 25,348 25,802 South East 4,222,285 4,364,920 4,461,915 4,509,091 4,537,702
London 27,956 27,988 28,282 28,832 29,625 London 4,088,930 4,222,463 4,350,699 4,459,822 4,489,327
Sources: Office for National Statistics

0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
Northern Ireland North East Wales East Midlands Yorkshire and the H.
£ million Public sector expenditure and revenue per person, 2013/14 to 2017/18 for
selected NUTS1 countries and regions
Expenditure per person
Revenue per person

Most revenue raised in Wales is from VAT
19.2%
19.4%
18.6%
18.5%
18.2%
22.9%
23.3%
23.7%
23.2%
23.5%
16.2%
15.9%
16.0%
16.7%
16.8%
8.8%
8.5%
8.9%
8.5%
8.4%
5.2%
5.3%
5.5%
5.4%
5.5%
9.5%
9.2%
9.0%
8.6%
8.4%
3.8%
4.1%
4.3%
4.8%
4.8%
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
3.8%
14.0%
14.1%
14.2%
14.8%
15.5%
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
Main sources of revenue in Wales, 2013/14 to 2017/18
VAT Income tax National Insurance Contributions
Gross operating surplus Excise duties Council tax
Onshore corporation tax Business rates Other revenue

Most expenditure occurs under social protection
36.9%
37.5%
37.5%
36.8%
36.3%
16.4%
16.9%
17.1%
17.7%
17.8%
11.0%
10.4%
10.6%
10.6%
10.5%
8.3%
7.9%
7.8%
8.0%
8.4%
7.9%
8.2%
7.6%
8.0%
7.7%
6.5%
6.3%
6.5%
6.2%
6.7%
4.6%
4.6%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
3.7%
3.8%
3.4%
3.4%
3.6%
4.5%
4.5%
5.1%
4.8%
4.7%
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
Main categories of functional spending for Wales, 2013/14 to 2017/18
Social protection Health Education General public services Accounting Adjustments
Economic affairs Defence Public order and safety Other functions

Future plans
• Aim to publish 2018/19 data in Winter 2018/19
• Continue to improve methods and harmonise with other
publications
• SR19 aims include:
• introducing guide for producing sub-NUTS1 statistics –
further collaboration with combined authorities
• further development of methods (e.g. workplace based
estimates) and use of admin data
• National Statistics accreditation

Cardiff Economic Forum
Gross Disposable
Household Income
Head of Regional Accounts
Trevor Fenton
13 June 2019

What does it include?
Gross disposable
household income

Resources
Operating surplus
Mixed income
Compensation of employees
Property income (received)
Uses
Property income (paid)
Allocation of primary income

Resources
Social benefits
Other current transfers
Uses
Taxes on income and wealth
Social contributions
Other current transfers
Secondary distribution of income

Gross disposable household income
• Money available for spending or saving
• Includes everyone resident in an area, whether living in
a traditional household or a communal establishment
• Can be divided by population to give GDHI per head, to
allow comparison across different sized areas

and regions within Wales
Disposable household
income in Wales

0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
United
Kingdom
England North East North West Yorkshire and
The Humber
East Midlands West Midlands East of
England
London South East South West Wales Scotland Northern
Ireland
Gross Disposable Household Income per head: 2015 to 2017 (£ pounds)
2015 2016 2017

NUTS2 regions
and local
authorities in
Wales

14,078
14,217
14,303
14,423
14,524
14,747
15,003
15,071
15,192
15,573
15,795
15,917
16,413
16,500
16,545
16,558
16,578
16,600
16,858
17,064
17,155
17,514
Merthyr Tydfil
Blaenau Gwent
Rhondda Cynon Taf
Torfaen
Caerphilly
Neath Port Talbot
Swansea
Gwynedd
Bridgend
Carmarthenshire
Pembrokeshire
Vale of Glamorgan
Denbighshire
Ceredigion
Conwy
Cardiff
Powys
Isle of Anglesey
Wrexham
Flintshire
Newport
Monmouthshire
Welsh local authorities: GDHI per head 2017 (£ pounds)

13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
Cardiff Capital Region Swansea Bay City Region Mid Wales Growth Deal North Wales Growth Deal
Welsh City Regions: GDHI per head (£ pounds)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Composition of Welsh economic regions
North Wales Mid and South West Wales South East Wales
Isle of Anglesey Powys Central Valleys
Gwynedd South West Wales Gwent Valleys
Conwy and Denbighshire Bridgend and Neath Port Talbot Cardiff and Vale of Glamorgan
Flintshire and Wrexham Swansea Monmouthshire and Newport

16,447
15,071
16,486 16,600
16,968
1,821 1,916 1,882
2,133
1,661
12037
9,888
10,945
11,511
13,873
2503 2,491 2,587 2,422 2,466
5727
5,365
6,226
5,851
5,486
North Wales Economic Region Gwynedd Conwy and Denbighshire Isle of Anglesey Flintshire and Wrexham
Components of Income per head: 2017 (£ pounds)
GDHI Rental Wages Investments Benefits

15,541
14,971 15,003
15,821
16,578
1752
1,464 1,548
1,920
2,212
10565
11,410
10,983
10,567
8,863
2394
1,820
2,202
2,488
3,097
5937 5,855 5,751 5,972
6,269
Mid and South West Wales Economic
Region
Bridgend and Neath Port Talbot Swansea South West Wales Powys

15,563
14,258 14,435
16,389
17,292
1673
1,225 1,240
2,054 2,041
12187
11,275
11,618
12,775
13,378
2216
1,693 1,770
2,776 2,585
5411 5,271 5,434 5,179
5,758
South East Wales Economic Region Central Valleys Gwent Valleys Cardiff and Vale of Glamorgan Monmouthshire and Newport

Find out more
You can find all our Regional Accounts statistics at
www.ons.gov.uk.
Just click on the letter R for our latest bulletins.

Introducing Regional GDP
Head of monthly and regional GDP
James Scruton
13 June 2019

What am I
going to
cover?
What data do we currently have on the Welsh economy?
Why regional GDP?
Challenges
About regional GDP
Regional GDP/Welsh Short-Term Indicators
Limitations
Future developments

What data do we currently have on the Welsh economy?
National Estimates of GDP
Regional estimates of GVA
Welsh Short-Term indicators

• Meets user demand
for quicker estimates
of the economies of
the regions and
nations of the UK
• In line with
recommendations
from the Bean review
of economic statistics
Why Regional GDP?

• Data sources
• Methodological challenges
• Emerging systems
• Consistency with other
estimates

About regional GDP
• Calculated using millions of VAT returns
• In some instances alternate data sources will
be available e.g. construction
• Data will be provided by region and industry
• Coherent with national estimates of GDP and
regional accounts
• Published in late summer/ early August

Regional GDP/Welsh Short-Term Indicators
Regional GDP Welsh Short-Term Indicators
Covers whole economy Market sector only
Published by ONS Published by Welsh Govt, data
provided by ONS
Benchmarked to Regional Accounts No benchmarking carried out
Using cloud based systems Uses legacy systems
Incorporates VAT data Uses Survey data
There are also methodological differences between Regional GDP and
Welsh Short-Term Indicators such as constraining to national
estimates and industry classification

• Regional apportionment
• Deflation
• Timing
• Data sources
• Initial publication will be
experimental

Future
developments
Consultation with users
Fine-tuning our methods
Combine this work with the flexible geography project
and develop the capability to provide quarterly “real”
GVA estimates for any user-specified area
Improvements to data sources e.g. construction

Regional data – some
applications and reflections
Senior Lecturer in Economics, Cardiff University
Dr Annette Roberts

Cardiff Economic Forum, 13 June 2019

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Cardiff Economic Forum, 13 June 2019