This document discusses global trends in scholarly publishing based on data from Thomson Reuters. It finds that submissions are growing rapidly in countries like China, India, and Iran. By 2013, it projects that China and India will be the top two submitting countries. However, acceptance rates are lower in these fast-growing countries. This may present challenges for peer review systems. It also finds increasing regionalization and internationalization of scientific research. Thomson Reuters aims to expand the international reach and coverage of its tools and services.

1. GLOBAL TRENDS IN SCHOLARLY PUBLISHING
Society for Scholarly Publishing
2009 Annual Meeting
Keith Collier
VP & General Manager, ScholarOne
Thomson Reuters

2. TOPICS
• Scholarly & Scientific Research at Thomson Reuters
• Global Peer Review Trends
• Global Research Evaluation Trends
• What does it mean?

3. THOMSON REUTER’S VIEW OF SCHOLARLY
RESEARCH
Publishing, Authoring, Performance
Discovery
and Collaboration Evaluation
• Web of Knowledge • ScholarOne • Essential Science
• Web of Science • EndNote Indicators
• Journal Citation
Reports (impact
factors
• Research Services
Searches Submissions Citations
Downloads Acceptances # of Papers
Key Metrics

4. THOMSON REUTER’S VIEW OF SCHOLARLY
RESEARCH
Publishing, Authoring, Performance
Discovery
and Collaboration Evaluation
• Web of Knowledge • ScholarOne • Essential Science
• Web of Science • EndNote Indicators
• Journal Citation
Reports (impact
factors
• Research Services
Searches Submissions Citations
Downloads Acceptances # of Papers
Key Metrics

5. TOTAL ORIGINAL SUBMISSIONS THROUGH
SCHOLARONE BY COUNTRY (2002 – 2008)
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0

6. SUBMISSION GROWTH BY COUNTRY (TOP 17)
200000
180000 United States
China
160000 United Kingdom
Japan
140000 Germany
Italy
120000
Canada
India
100000
France
80000 Spain
Australia
60000 Turkey
Korea, Republic of
40000 Taiwan
Netherlands
20000
Brazil
Sweden
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
# of Journals 245 446 694 1074 1554 2155 2805
(sample size)

7. TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
PERCENT BREAKDOWN
2002
3%
4%
United States
4%
Japan
6% United Kingdom
Germany
Italy
6%
43%
France
Canada
6% Spain
China
Australia
8%
10%
10%

8. TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
PERCENT BREAKDOWN
2003
4%
5%
United States
5% United Kingdom
Japan
5%
Germany
Italy
6% 42%
France
Canada
6% China
Spain
Australia
7%
10%
10%

9. TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
PERCENT BREAKDOWN
2004
4%
5% United States
5% United Kingdom
Japan
6% Germany
39% China
Italy
6%
Canada
France
Spain
7%
Korea, Republic of
8%
10% 10%

10. TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
PERCENT BREAKDOWN
2005
5%
5% United States
5% United Kingdom
China
6% Japan
37%
Germany
Italy
6%
Canada
France
Spain
7%
Turkey
9%
10%
10%

11. TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
PERCENT BREAKDOWN
2006
5%
5% United States
5% China
United Kingdom
5% Japan
36%
Germany
Italy
6%
Canada
India
7% France
Spain
9%
12%
10%

12. TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
PERCENT BREAKDOWN
2007
4%
4% United States
5% China
United Kingdom
6% Japan
37%
Germany
India
6%
Italy
Canada
7% France
Spain
8%
10% 13%

13. TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
PERCENT BREAKDOWN
2008
5%
5% United States
China
6%
United Kingdom
Japan
6% 38% India
Germany
Canada
7%
Italy
Australia
8%
10%
15%

14. TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
PERCENT BREAKDOWN
2009 YTD
4%
4% United States
5% China
United Kingdom
5%
Japan
36%
India
6% Germany
Canada
Italy
7% Spain
France
8%
10% 15%

15. AVG ANNUAL SUBMISSION GROWTH (2002 – 2008)
JOURNALS WITH AT LEAST 5,000 SUBMISSIONS IN 2008
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Iran, China India Taiwan Turkey Brazil Greece Poland Korea, Australia
Islamic Republic of
Republic of

16. EXPECT MORE SUBMISSIONS RELATIVE TO OTHER
COUNTRIES FROM THESE “HOT SPOTS”

17. PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING
MANUSCRIPTS
2009 Projected
4%
4% United States
5% China
United Kingdom
5%
34% India
Japan
6% Germany
Canada
Italy
7%
Turkey
Australia
7%
10% 18%

18. PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING
MANUSCRIPTS
2010 Projected
5%
5% United States
5% China
United Kingdom
5% 31%
India
Japan
5% Germany
Turkey
6% Taiwan
Canada
Italy
8%
21%
9%

19. PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING
MANUSCRIPTS
2011 Projected
4%
5% United States
5% China
28% India
5% United Kingdom
Japan
5% Iran, Islamic Republic of
Turkey
6% Taiwan
Germany
Canada
8%
25%
9%

20. PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING
MANUSCRIPTS
2012 Projected
4%
4%
China
5% United States
29% India
5%
United Kingdom
Iran, Islamic Republic of
6%
Turkey
Taiwan
6% Japan
Korea, Republic of
Germany
7%
24%
10%

21. PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING
MANUSCRIPTS
2013 Projected
3%
4%
China
4%
United States
6% India
32%
Iran, Islamic Republic of
6% United Kingdom
Taiwan
Turkey
6% Japan
Korea, Republic of
Brazil
8%
10% 21%

22. TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS
PROJECTED CHANGE OVER 10 YEARS…
2003 2013 Projected
4% 4% 3% China
United States
4%
5% United Kingdom United States
5%
Japan India
5% 6%
Germany 32%
Iran, Islamic Republic of
6% 42% 6%
Italy United Kingdom
6% France 6% Taiwan
Canada Turkey
7% 8%
China Japan
10% Spain 10% 21%
10% Korea, Republic of
Australia Brazil

23. 2002-2008 ACCEPTANCE RATIOS
COUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 10,000 SUBMISSIONS
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

24. 2002-2008 ACCEPTANCE RATIOS
COUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 10,000 SUBMISSIONS

25. PEER REVIEW CHALLENGES COMING?
COUNTRIES WITH GROWING SUBMISSIONS AND LOWER ACCEPTANCE
RATES

26. SCIENTIFIC & SCHOLARLY RESEARCH’S VIEW OF
SCHOLARLY RESEARCH
Publishing, Authoring, Performance
Discovery
and Collaboration Evaluation
• Web of Knowledge • ScholarOne • Essential Science
• Web of Science • EndNote Indicators
• Journal Citation
Reports
• Research Services
Searches Submissions Citations
Downloads Acceptances # of Papers
Key Metrics

27. ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)
RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF PAPERS (1998 – 2008)
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0

28. ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)
RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS (1998 – 2008)
50,000,000
45,000,000
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0

29. ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)
RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS PER PAPER
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

30. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
SWITZERLAND
USA
DENMARK
NETHERLANDS
SCOTLAND
SWEDEN
ENGLAND
FINLAND
CANADA
BELGIUM
GERMANY
AUSTRIA
ISRAEL
NORWAY
FRANCE
WALES
AUSTRALIA
ITALY
IRELAND
NORTH IRELAND
NEW ZEALAND
JAPAN
SPAIN
HUNGARY
CHILE
PORTUGAL
SINGAPORE
SOUTH AFRICA
GREECE
ARGENTINA
CZECH REPUBLIC
THAILAND
RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS PER PAPER
MEXICO
SLOVENIA
POLAND
SOUTH KOREA
VENEZUELA
TAIWAN
BRAZIL
SLOVAKIA
BULGARIA
CROATIA
PEOPLES R CHINA
ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 50 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)
INDIA
RUSSIA
MOROCCO
EGYPT
MALAYSIA
TURKEY
ROMANIA

31. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN (THOMSON REUTERS
PERSPECTIVE)
• Challenges for Peer Review
– Increasing submissions, but from countries with lower
acceptance rates and lower citations
• Focus on Regional Science
– More visibility and use of regional journals
• Internationalize Tools & Services

32. THE TWO-WAY STREET: THOMSON REUTERS
• International version of tools
– Web of Science
– EndNote
– ScholarOne
• Expanded Regional Coverage in WoS
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total WoS 8,834 9,109 9,337 10,755 11,035
Growth +275 (3%) +228 +1,418 +280
(2.5%) (15%) (2.6%)

33. PERCENT OF WORLD PAPERS FOR OVERALL
COUNTRY IN 1 YEAR PERIODS CITED TO PRESENT