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Jim Spohrer (IBM)
For Ntegrea, Stanford Park Hotel, Palo Alto, CA, Wed July 23, 2018
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/UIDP_20180419_V6
July 23, 2018 1
Future of AI:
Measuring Progress and Preparing
IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive
July 23, 2018
© IBM UPWard 2016
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July 23, 2018 IBM #OpenTechAI 3
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© IBM UPWard 2016
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AI (Artificial Intelligence) is popular again… you see it mentioned on billboards in SF
However, pattern recognition does not equal AI
Deep learning works if you have lots of data and compute power
We finally have lots of data and compute power – hurray!!!
So finally, deep learning for pattern recognition is working pretty well
However, AI is more than deep learning for pattern recognition…
AI requires commonsense reasoning – that will take another 5-10 years of research
How do we know this? Look at the AI leaderboards – we will get to that…
Future of AI
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 5
… when will
your smartphone
be able to take and
pass any online
course? And then
be your coach, so
you can pass too?
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 6
IBM-MIT $240M over 10 year AI
mission
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 7
GitHub: >50K IBMers have accounts
3/24/2023
© IBM MAP COG2018
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Technical Eminence: Explore, Read, Pull Request, Contributor, Committer, Governance
Kaggle: How many know about
leaderboards?
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Questions
• What is the timeline for solving AI and IA?
• Who are the leaders driving AI progress?
• What will the biggest benefits from AI be?
• What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and
are they real?
• What other technologies may have a bigger
impact than AI?
• What are the implications for stakeholders?
• How should we prepare to get the benefits and
avoid the risks?
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Future of AI
3/24/2023
© IBM Cognitive Opentech Group (COG)
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Dota 2
“Deep Learning” for
“AI Pattern Recognition”
depends on massive
amounts of “labeled data”
and computing power
available since ~2012;
Labeled data is simply
input and output pairs,
such as a sound and word,
or image and word, or
English sentence and French
sentence, or road scene
and car control settings –
labeled data means having
both input and output data
in massive quantities.
For example, 100K images
of skin, half with skin
cancer and half without to
learn to recognize presence
of skin cancer.
Every 20 years, compute costs are down
by 1000x
• Cost of Digital Workers
– Moore’s Law can be thought of as
lowering costs by a factor of a…
• Thousand times lower
in 20 years
• Million times lower
in 40 years
• Billion times lower
in 60 years
• Smarter Tools (Terascale)
– Terascale (2017) = $3K
– Terascale (2020) = ~$1K
• Narrow Worker (Petascale)
– Recognition (Fast)
– Petascale (2040) = ~$1K
• Broad Worker (Exascale)
– Reasoning (Slow)
– Exascale (2060) = ~$1K
12
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group
2080
2040
2000
1960
$1K
$1M
$1B
$1T
2060
2020
1980
+/- 10 years
$1
Person Average
Annual Salary
(Living Income)
Super Computer
Cost
Mainframe Cost
Smartphone Cost
T
P
E
T P E
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
GDP/Employee
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 13
(Source)
Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations
Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
Leaderboards Framework
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap
Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles
Pattern
recognition
Video
understanding
Memory Reasoning Social
interactions
Fluent
conversation
Assistant &
Collaborator
Coach &
Mediator
Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions
Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI
Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarizatio
n
Values
ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI
Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation
WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT
Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization)
Learning by Watching and Reading (Education)
Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration)
2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 14
Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer?
Approx.
Year
Human
Level ->
Leaders and Leaderboards:
Who is winning
• How to Measure Leadership?
– Publications or Patents
– Regions China vs USA vs EU vs ROW
– Companies Microsoft vs Google vs IBM
• How to Measure Progress?
– One capability or all leaderboards?
– SQuAD – Question Answering
– EFF Measuring AI Progress
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 15
AI Benefits
• Access to expertise
– “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted
service providers
– Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance,
etc.
• Better choices
– ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on
what matters most
– AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher
value co-creation interactions
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 16
AI Risks
• Job Loss
– Shorter term
bigger risk
= de-skilling
• Super-intelligence
– Shorter term
bigger risk
= bad actors
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 17
https://maliciousaireport.com/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/automation-makes-us-dumb-1416589342
Other Technologies: Bigger impact?
Yes.
• Augmented Reality (AR)/
Virtual Reality (VR)
– Game worlds
grow-up
• Blockchain/
Security Systems
– Trust and security
immutable
• Advanced Materials/
Energy Systems
– Manufacturing as cheap,
local recycling service
(utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.)
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 18
Stakeholders
• Individuals
• Families
• Businesses and
other Organizations
• Industry Groups
• Regional
Governments:
– Cities
– States
– Nations
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 19
“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
Be Prepared
• Understand open AI code + data +
models + stacks + communities
– Leaderboards
– Ethical conduct
• Learn 3 R’s of IBM’s Cognitive
Opentech Group (COG)
– Read arXiv
– Redo with Github
– Report with Jupyter notebooks on
DSX and/or leaderboards
• Improve your team’s skills of rapidly
rebuilding from scratch
– Build your open code eminence
– Understand open innovation
– Communities + Leaderboards
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 21
1972 used
Punch cards
2016 used
IBM Watson
Open APIs to win…
Courses
• 2015
– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”
– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy
– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
• 2025
– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”
– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
• 2035
– “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”
– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day
– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves
• 2055
– “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”
– Most people have 100 digital workers.
3/24/2023 22
Take free online cognitive classes today at cognitiveclass.ai
Prepare for AI Future
• Do you have a GitHub account?
– Yes: proceed
– No: sign up
• Do you program?
– Yes: Learn and do 3 R’s (read, redo, report)
– No: Learn to read and execute code (cheat T2T)
• Do you have favorite AI leaderboards?
– Yes: Learn and do 3 R’s
– No: Find a mentor with favorites, do together
• AI prepared = Favorites you can 3 R together
• … until you find the one favorite that can do them all
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I have…
Have you noticed how the building
blocks just keep getting better?
Learning to program:
My first program
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Early Computer Science Class:
Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s
First Program 1972
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Fast Forward 2016:
Consider this…
Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016
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Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016
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IBM Image Tagging
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Today: November 10, 2017
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IBM
Cupertino Teens
• IBM Watson on Bluemix
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AI for NLP
entity identification
Resilience:
Rapidly Rebuilding From Scratch
• Dartnell L (2012) The Knowledge: How to
Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a
Cataclysm. Westminster London: Penguin
Books.
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Industries Transformed
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”
3/24/2023 35
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Better Building Blocks
Build: 10 million minutes of experience
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 36
Build: 2 million minutes of experience
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 37
Build: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 38
Types: Progression of models and
capabilities
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 39
Task & World Model/
Planning & Decisions
Self Model/
Capacity & Limits
User Model/
Episodic Memory
Institutions Model/
Trust & Social Acts
Tool + - - -
Assistant ++ + - -
Collaborator +++ ++ + -
Coach ++++ +++ ++ +
Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++
Cognitive
Tool
Cognitive
Assistant
Cognitive
Collaborator
Cognitive
Coach
Cognitive
Mediator
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Cognitive Mediators
for all people in all roles
Occupations = Many Tasks
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Watson Discovery Advisor
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Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.
URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
In Sum: Prepare by…
• Participating
– Opentech AI (GitHub)
– Leaderboard Challenges (Kaggle)
• Making
– Smartphone apps become low-cost digital workers
(expertise economy)
– Return of mini-local factories and farms (manufacturing
and agricultural economy)
• Learning
– Service science and knowledge science study the evolution
– As well as influence the evolution of industries and
professions
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In Summary
3/24/2023
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
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“A service science
perspective considers
the evolving ecology of
service system entities,
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation
interactions, and their
capabilities, constraints,
rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities
Trust: Two Communities
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© IBM MAP COG2018
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Service
Science
OpenTech
AI
Trust:
Value Co-Creation,
Transdisciplinary
Trust:
Ethical, Safe, Explainable,
Open Communities
Special Issue
AI Magazine?
Handbook of
OpenTech AI?
Robots by Country
• Industrial
robots per
10,000 people
by country
3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 46
Leaderboard - rankings
• Korea leads
3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 47
Learderboard – rankings 2
• China is below world average
3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 48
Brian Arthur - Economist
• The term “technological unemployment” is from John Maynard Keynes’s 1930 lecture,
“Economic possibilities for our grandchildren,” where he predicted that in the future, around
2030, the production problem would be solved and there would be enough for everyone, but
machines (robots, he thought) would cause “technological unemployment.” There would be
plenty to go around, but the means of getting a share in it, jobs, might be scarce. We are not
quite at 2030, but I believe we have reached the “Keynes point,” where indeed enough is
produced by the economy, both physical and virtual, for all of us. (If total US household
income of $8.495 trillion were shared by America’s 116 million households, each would earn
$73,000, enough for a decent middle-class life.) And we have reached a point where
technological unemployment is becoming a reality. The problem in this new phase we’ve
entered is not quite jobs, it is access to what’s produced. Jobs have been the main means of
access for only 200 or 300 years. Before that, farm labor, small craft workshops, voluntary
piecework, or inherited wealth provided access. Now access needs to change again. However
this happens, we have entered a different phase for the economy, a new era where production
matters less and what matters more is access to that production: distribution, in other words—
who gets what and how they get it. We have entered the distributive era.
3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 49
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Explain external
phenomena
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Explain internal
phenomena
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Explain
value co-creation
phenomena
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Physics Chemistry Biology
Neuroscience Psychology Artificial
Intelligence
Engineering Management Public
Policy
Education Design Humanities
Natural Systems
Cognitive Systems
Service Systems
3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 54
3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 55
3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 56
OpenTechAI on GitHub (April 29,
2018)
Code Stars (K) Forks (K)
Google TensorFlow 97 62
Keras-team Keras 28 10
Sci-kit Sci-kit 27 13
BVLC Caffe 23 14
PyTorch PyTorch 14 3
Apache MXNet 13 5
Caffe2 Caffe2 7 1
Baidu PaddlePaddle 6 1
Google Tensor2Tensor 3 0.8
Tencent ANGEL 3 0.8
3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 57
OpenTechAI on GitHub (April 29,
2018)
Code Stars (K) Forks (K)
Tencent NCNN 3 0.8
Google Kubeflow 3 0.3
Microsoft ONNX 3 0.3
Google TensorBoard 1 0.3
Apache SystemML 0.6 0.2
IBM (watson-intu) INTU (10 Repositories) 0.1 0.07
IBM FfDL 0.1 0.04
IBM ART 0.1 0.03
IBM MAX 0.005 0.017
LFDL AT&T Acumos (35 Repositories) 0.01 0
3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 58
Headlines
• 2017 Popular
– “AI vs People”
– “X-Y team up to invest big in AI”
• 2025 Commonplace
– “People using AI to become better at their
professions, serving others.”
– “Teenagers using AI to solve challenges,
and improve their communities.”
• 2085 Resilience
– “Teams competing to rapidly rebuild
socio-economic-technical systems (wise
service systems) from scratch”
– “U.N. Pluto-base makes major discovery
about nature of universe. U.F.P.
established.”
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 59
IEEE 2017
SQuAD Leaderboard
Majority of IBM offerings
incorporate open technologies
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OPEN CONTAINER
PROJECT
At IBM, employees can win awards for both patents and open source contributions.
News
• CODAIT
• SnapML
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Learning:
Open Innovation Learning (OIL)
By David Ing
• Ing D (2018) Open Innovation Learning:
Theory building on open sourcing while
private sourcing. Foreword by Jim Spohrer.
Publisher: Toronto Canada: Coevolving
Innovations Inc. Publishing.
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Icons of AI
Progress
• 1956: Dartmouth Conference
organized by:
– John McCarthy (Dartmouth, later
Stanford)
– Marvin Minsky (MIT)
– and two senior scientists:
• Claude Shannon (Bell Labs)
• Nathan Rochester (IBM)
• 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) - Chess
• 2011: Watson Jeopardy! (IBM)
• 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMinds)
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 64
AI to IA Timeline: Hard unsolved AI
problems
• 2012-2017 AI Pattern Recognition and
Learning from Massive Labeled Data
– Speech, image, translation, driverless, games
– Chatbots as digital assistants
• 2018 Video Understanding
• 2021 Episodic Memory
• 2022 Learning from Watching
• 2024 Commonsense Reasoning
• 2026 Learning from Reading
• 2028 Learning from Doing
• 2030 Fluent Conversation
• 2031-2039 Cognitive Collaborator and
Mediator; Intelligence Augmentation (IA)
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 65
Jim Spohrer (IBM)
For C Mohan
Wednesday February 21, 2018
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/nsf-20180124-v18
3/24/2023 66
The Future of AI:
Measuring Progress and Preparing
Jim Spohrer & Opentech AI group?
3/24/2023
© IBM UPWard 2016
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IBM Products and Services to Customers
IBM Research
(Patents Science
Eminence &
Differentiation)
Open Technologies
(Open Source
Technical Eminence &
Industry Standards)
Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) = Open Source AI + Data
Measuring AI Progress
3/24/2023
© IBM COG 2017
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What exists in 2016?
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360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
User Models
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$5M Prize
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“AI will change the world?
Who will change AI?”
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 72
“These amazing technologies must be
able to help people like myself…”
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 73
Recent press…
Real reading and Q&A is hard
Good science = Reproducibility
In Conclusion
• Hundreds of AI Challenge Leaderboards
exist and the number is growing
• Can one system be built to do them all?
See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FpdEmySsuc
What types of digital cognitive
systems?
• Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people)
– Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do
something important in your personal or professional
lives
– Team to design it and advocate for it, and then
everyone votes
– Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen
for health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and
make better choices, find what you are looking for,
move around more effectively, provide emotional
support, provide IT support, learn about important
public policy goals and make better choices
• Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 78
Types
• Tool
• Assistant
•
Collaborat
or
• Coach
• Mediator
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 79
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Machine
Learning
Natural
Language
Processing
High
Performance
Computing
Knowledge
Representation
and Reasoning
Question
Answering
Unstructured
Information
Brief History
of AI
• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference
• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds
• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation
• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak
• 1990 – AI Winter
• 1997 – Deep Blue
• 1997 – 2011 Real-World
• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI
• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute
• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &
• True North Brain Chip
• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
on IBM Bluemix
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Definitions: AI vs IA
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AI is Artificial Intelligence, or
intelligence in machines (smart machines)
IA is Intelligence Augmentation, or
people thinking and working together with smart machines.
IA is what IBM calls “Cognitive Computing” and
the smart machines are called “Watson Solutions” or
more generally “Digital Cognitive Systems (Cogs)”
Cognition as a Service (CaaS):
AI building blocks for IA solutions
Augmenting Workers
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 84
Startup
Companies
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 85
Societal Grand Challenges
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Solving these would mean we are smarter,
but would they mean we are wiser?
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High School Senior: Anish Krishnan
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IBM in Silicon Valley:
From Punch Cards….
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On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children,
among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special
train that carried them across the continent to establish
new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant
Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.
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Computing: Then, Now, Projected
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2035
2055
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93
Cognitive Build
What types of digital cognitive
systems?
• Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people)
– Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do
something important in your personal or professional
lives
– Team to design it and advocate for it, and then
everyone votes
– Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen
for health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and
make better choices, find what you are looking for,
move around more effectively, provide emotional
support, provide IT support, learn about important
public policy goals and make better choices
• Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 94
Partnership for AI formed
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 95
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What might Reality 2.0 look like?
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How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?
3/24/2023 99
What might it look like?
Reality 2.0 Service Platform:
polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2)
do not interrupt people (P1,P2)
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Service Platform
CM2
P2
CM1
P1
100x
100x 100x
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Wise Service System:
All entities’ in network
use cognitive mediators
to enhance
value co-creation interactions
Cognitive Mediators:
Cognitive systems
with deep knowledge of both
customer (user) and provider (expert)
as co-creators of win-win value
Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
Two assertions
• Machines seem to be getting smarter fast.
– Agree/disagree?
• People do not seem to be getting wiser fast.
– Agree/disagree?
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Homo Sapiens means Wise Man: True/False?
What is Industry 4.0?
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Yesterday: Servitization
• Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”
Tomorrow: Servitization
• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers
• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system
– Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything
– Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’
performance across their life-cycles
– Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product
performance, efficiency, maintenance, etc.
– Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with
financing/Internet of Service
– Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability
– Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability
• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for
service innovation) for innovative university startups
Vision: MMaaRRSS
• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional
Recirculation Service System
– “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for
customer Y.”
– Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows
– Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)
• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)
In Summary
3/24/2023
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
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“A service science
perspective considers
the evolving ecology of
service system entities,
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation
interactions, and their
capabilities, constraints,
rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities
Backup Slides
• Understanding Cognitive Systems
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 108
What is a cognitive system (entity)?
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 109
What is a digital cognitive system
(entity)?
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 110
Backup slides
• Service systems - http://service-
science.info/archives/3368
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 111
Assisting individuals and organizations
to close their service innovation skills gap
and co-create wiser service systems
empowering employees, customers, citizens
with cognitive mediators
in the collaborative service economy
What is service science?
• IBM initiated effort to establish a
multidisciplinary field to study
service systems … with a focus on
people-centered, IT-enabled service
innovations for business and society
– based on service-dominant logic
– service = value co-creation
– IT-enabled service architectures
– service systems (socio-technical
systems for win-win value co-creation)
• IBM helped establish
– computer science (1945-present)
– service science (2005-present)
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 113
Service systems are dynamic configurations of
resources (people, technology, organizations,
and information) interconnected by
value propositions, internally and externally.
Examples:
- macro: cities, states, nations
- meso: hospitals, universities, businesses
- micro: households, families, individuals
Reference:
Spohrer J, Maglio P, Bailey J, Gruhl D (2007)
Steps toward a science of service systems.
IEEE Computer Society. 40(3):71-77(January).
What is service science?
• Now over 500 universities globally teach a more
multidisciplinary approach to service innovation,
including:
– Service management and marketing
– Service engineering and operations
– Service design and arts
– Service public policy and economics
– Service computing and informatics
• SSME + DAPP =
Service Science Management Engineering +
Design Arts Public Policy
– People, technology, organizations, information
interconnected by value propositions.
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 114
Reference:
IfM & IBM (2008). Succeeding through service
innovation: A service perspective for education,
research, business and government.
University of Cambridge Institute for Manufacturing,
Cambridge, UK. 2008.
How to get involved?
• Weekly speaker series
– Service innovation
– Service education & research
– Smart service/cognitive systems
• Discovery summits & book series
• Opportunities
– Institutional memberships
– Leadership & ambassadors
– Volunteer opportunities
– Awards & sponsored
conferences
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 115
ISSIP.org is a non-profit society
International Society of Service Innovation Professionals
Membership:
Over 1000 professionals and students from 40+ countries,
50+ companies and 50+ universities.
How to get involved?
• Journals (INFORMS,
etc.)
• Conferences (HICSS,
etc.)
• Courses (MIT, etc.)
• Funding (NSF, etc.)
• Society (ISSIP, etc.)
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 116
What are the hot topics?
• Smart Service Systems: Intelligence Augmentation
– AI + AR UX (Artificial Intelligence + Augmented Reality User
Experience)
– Smartphones (mobile, social, secure, etc.)
• Collaborative Economy: Servitization
– From assets to co-creation (e.g., Uber, AirBnB, etc.)
– From product to capability/outcome-as-a-service
– Manufacturing as a local recycling service
• Digital Transformation: Trust and Identity
– Blockchain: Don Tapscott’s TED Talk & book
– Big Data: Service Analytics & HAT (Hub of All Things)
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 117
Backups
• T-shaped people
3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 118
Sciences provide…
• Frameworks for people to ask and answer
questions systematically
• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”
3/24/2023
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
119
Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -
“To our children and children’s children,
to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world
that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”
Proenneke:
Alone in the Wilderness -
To do a thorough testing,
should each generation
be required to rapidly rebuild
from scratch?
A re-makers movement?
Some paths to becoming 64x smarter:
Improving learning and performance
• 2x from Learning sciences (methods)
– Better models of concepts
– Better models of learners
• 2x from Learning technology (tools)
– Guided learning paths
– Elimination of “thrashing”
• 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps)
– More you know, faster you go
– Advanced organizers
• 2x from Lifelong learning (time)
– Longer lives and longer careers
– Keeps “learning-mode” activated
• 2x from Early learning (time)
– Start earlier: Challenged-based approach
– STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems)
• 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support)
– Technology & Infrastructure Interactions
– Organizations & Others Interactions
The Maker Movement &
Open Source Ecology
3/24/2023
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
121
3/24/2023
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
122
Future of Skills
T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent
3/24/2023
© IBM UPWard 2016
123
3/24/2023
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
124
Future of Skills
Future-Ready T-Shapes
3/24/2023
© IBM UPWard 2016
125
Next Generation:
Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators
Many disciplines
Many sectors
Many regions/cultures
(understanding & communications)
Deep
in
one
sector
Deep
in
one
region/culture
Deep
in
one
discipline
By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great
Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators
3/24/2023 127
Empathy & Teamwork
sector
region/culture
discipline
Depth
Breadth
STEM
Liberal Arts
IBM Cloud Bluemix:
Watson APIs are growing…
3/24/2023
© IBM UPWard 2016
128
So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
3/24/2023
© IBM UPWard 2016
129
But this stuff is still really hard…
3/24/2023
© IBM UPWard 2016
130
Social Emotional Skills - Empathy
3/24/2023
© IBM UPWard 2016
131
You say you want a
revolution?
October 8, 2017
https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/revolution-20171008-v23
3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group
132
3/24/2023
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide
accelerating regional development
133

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Ntegra 20180523 v10 copy.pptx

  • 1. Jim Spohrer (IBM) For Ntegrea, Stanford Park Hotel, Palo Alto, CA, Wed July 23, 2018 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/UIDP_20180419_V6 July 23, 2018 1 Future of AI: Measuring Progress and Preparing
  • 2. IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive July 23, 2018 © IBM UPWard 2016 2
  • 3. July 23, 2018 IBM #OpenTechAI 3
  • 4. 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 4 AI (Artificial Intelligence) is popular again… you see it mentioned on billboards in SF However, pattern recognition does not equal AI Deep learning works if you have lots of data and compute power We finally have lots of data and compute power – hurray!!! So finally, deep learning for pattern recognition is working pretty well However, AI is more than deep learning for pattern recognition… AI requires commonsense reasoning – that will take another 5-10 years of research How do we know this? Look at the AI leaderboards – we will get to that…
  • 5. Future of AI 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 5 … when will your smartphone be able to take and pass any online course? And then be your coach, so you can pass too?
  • 7. IBM-MIT $240M over 10 year AI mission 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 7
  • 8. GitHub: >50K IBMers have accounts 3/24/2023 © IBM MAP COG2018 8 Technical Eminence: Explore, Read, Pull Request, Contributor, Committer, Governance
  • 9. Kaggle: How many know about leaderboards? 3/24/2023 © IBM MAP COG2018 9
  • 10. Questions • What is the timeline for solving AI and IA? • Who are the leaders driving AI progress? • What will the biggest benefits from AI be? • What are the biggest risks associated with AI, and are they real? • What other technologies may have a bigger impact than AI? • What are the implications for stakeholders? • How should we prepare to get the benefits and avoid the risks? 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 10
  • 11. Future of AI 3/24/2023 © IBM Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) 11 Dota 2 “Deep Learning” for “AI Pattern Recognition” depends on massive amounts of “labeled data” and computing power available since ~2012; Labeled data is simply input and output pairs, such as a sound and word, or image and word, or English sentence and French sentence, or road scene and car control settings – labeled data means having both input and output data in massive quantities. For example, 100K images of skin, half with skin cancer and half without to learn to recognize presence of skin cancer.
  • 12. Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x • Cost of Digital Workers – Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by a factor of a… • Thousand times lower in 20 years • Million times lower in 40 years • Billion times lower in 60 years • Smarter Tools (Terascale) – Terascale (2017) = $3K – Terascale (2020) = ~$1K • Narrow Worker (Petascale) – Recognition (Fast) – Petascale (2040) = ~$1K • Broad Worker (Exascale) – Reasoning (Slow) – Exascale (2060) = ~$1K 12 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2080 2040 2000 1960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 2060 2020 1980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost T P E T P E AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  • 13. GDP/Employee 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 13 (Source) Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
  • 14. Leaderboards Framework AI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles Pattern recognition Video understanding Memory Reasoning Social interactions Fluent conversation Assistant & Collaborator Coach & Mediator Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarizatio n Values ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization) Learning by Watching and Reading (Education) Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration) 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 14 Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer? Approx. Year Human Level ->
  • 15. Leaders and Leaderboards: Who is winning • How to Measure Leadership? – Publications or Patents – Regions China vs USA vs EU vs ROW – Companies Microsoft vs Google vs IBM • How to Measure Progress? – One capability or all leaderboards? – SQuAD – Question Answering – EFF Measuring AI Progress 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 15
  • 16. AI Benefits • Access to expertise – “Insanely great” labor productivity for trusted service providers – Digital workers for healthcare, education, finance, etc. • Better choices – ”Insanely great” collaborations with others on what matters most – AI for IA = Augmented Intelligence and higher value co-creation interactions 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 16
  • 17. AI Risks • Job Loss – Shorter term bigger risk = de-skilling • Super-intelligence – Shorter term bigger risk = bad actors 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 17 https://maliciousaireport.com/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/automation-makes-us-dumb-1416589342
  • 18. Other Technologies: Bigger impact? Yes. • Augmented Reality (AR)/ Virtual Reality (VR) – Game worlds grow-up • Blockchain/ Security Systems – Trust and security immutable • Advanced Materials/ Energy Systems – Manufacturing as cheap, local recycling service (utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.) 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 18
  • 19. Stakeholders • Individuals • Families • Businesses and other Organizations • Industry Groups • Regional Governments: – Cities – States – Nations 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 19
  • 20. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
  • 21. Be Prepared • Understand open AI code + data + models + stacks + communities – Leaderboards – Ethical conduct • Learn 3 R’s of IBM’s Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) – Read arXiv – Redo with Github – Report with Jupyter notebooks on DSX and/or leaderboards • Improve your team’s skills of rapidly rebuilding from scratch – Build your open code eminence – Understand open innovation – Communities + Leaderboards 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 21 1972 used Punch cards 2016 used IBM Watson Open APIs to win…
  • 22. Courses • 2015 – “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” – 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy – 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject • 2025 – “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” – Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week • 2035 – “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” – Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day – Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves • 2055 – “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” – Most people have 100 digital workers. 3/24/2023 22 Take free online cognitive classes today at cognitiveclass.ai
  • 23. Prepare for AI Future • Do you have a GitHub account? – Yes: proceed – No: sign up • Do you program? – Yes: Learn and do 3 R’s (read, redo, report) – No: Learn to read and execute code (cheat T2T) • Do you have favorite AI leaderboards? – Yes: Learn and do 3 R’s – No: Find a mentor with favorites, do together • AI prepared = Favorites you can 3 R together • … until you find the one favorite that can do them all 3/24/2023 © IBM Cognitive Opentech Group 2018 23
  • 24. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 24
  • 25. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 25 I have… Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
  • 26. Learning to program: My first program 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 26 Early Computer Science Class: Watson Center at Columbia 1945 Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
  • 27. 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 27 Fast Forward 2016: Consider this…
  • 28. Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 28
  • 29. Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 29
  • 30. IBM Image Tagging 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 30
  • 31. Today: November 10, 2017 3/24/2023 © IBM DBG COG 2017 31 IBM
  • 32. Cupertino Teens • IBM Watson on Bluemix 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 32 AI for NLP entity identification
  • 33. Resilience: Rapidly Rebuilding From Scratch • Dartnell L (2012) The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a Cataclysm. Westminster London: Penguin Books. 3/24/2023 © IBM MAP COG2018 33
  • 34. Industries Transformed Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”
  • 35. 3/24/2023 35 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Better Building Blocks
  • 36. Build: 10 million minutes of experience 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 36
  • 37. Build: 2 million minutes of experience 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 37
  • 38. Build: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 38
  • 39. Types: Progression of models and capabilities 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 39 Task & World Model/ Planning & Decisions Self Model/ Capacity & Limits User Model/ Episodic Memory Institutions Model/ Trust & Social Acts Tool + - - - Assistant ++ + - - Collaborator +++ ++ + - Coach ++++ +++ ++ + Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++ Cognitive Tool Cognitive Assistant Cognitive Collaborator Cognitive Coach Cognitive Mediator
  • 40. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 40 Cognitive Mediators for all people in all roles
  • 41. Occupations = Many Tasks 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 41
  • 42. Watson Discovery Advisor 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 42 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
  • 43. In Sum: Prepare by… • Participating – Opentech AI (GitHub) – Leaderboard Challenges (Kaggle) • Making – Smartphone apps become low-cost digital workers (expertise economy) – Return of mini-local factories and farms (manufacturing and agricultural economy) • Learning – Service science and knowledge science study the evolution – As well as influence the evolution of industries and professions 3/24/2023 © IBM MAP COG2018 43
  • 44. In Summary 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 44 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  • 45. Trust: Two Communities 3/24/2023 © IBM MAP COG2018 45 Service Science OpenTech AI Trust: Value Co-Creation, Transdisciplinary Trust: Ethical, Safe, Explainable, Open Communities Special Issue AI Magazine? Handbook of OpenTech AI?
  • 46. Robots by Country • Industrial robots per 10,000 people by country 3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 46
  • 47. Leaderboard - rankings • Korea leads 3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 47
  • 48. Learderboard – rankings 2 • China is below world average 3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 48
  • 49. Brian Arthur - Economist • The term “technological unemployment” is from John Maynard Keynes’s 1930 lecture, “Economic possibilities for our grandchildren,” where he predicted that in the future, around 2030, the production problem would be solved and there would be enough for everyone, but machines (robots, he thought) would cause “technological unemployment.” There would be plenty to go around, but the means of getting a share in it, jobs, might be scarce. We are not quite at 2030, but I believe we have reached the “Keynes point,” where indeed enough is produced by the economy, both physical and virtual, for all of us. (If total US household income of $8.495 trillion were shared by America’s 116 million households, each would earn $73,000, enough for a decent middle-class life.) And we have reached a point where technological unemployment is becoming a reality. The problem in this new phase we’ve entered is not quite jobs, it is access to what’s produced. Jobs have been the main means of access for only 200 or 300 years. Before that, farm labor, small craft workshops, voluntary piecework, or inherited wealth provided access. Now access needs to change again. However this happens, we have entered a different phase for the economy, a new era where production matters less and what matters more is access to that production: distribution, in other words— who gets what and how they get it. We have entered the distributive era. 3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 49
  • 50. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 50 Explain external phenomena
  • 51. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 51 Explain internal phenomena
  • 52. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 52 Explain value co-creation phenomena
  • 53. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 53 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems Cognitive Systems Service Systems
  • 57. OpenTechAI on GitHub (April 29, 2018) Code Stars (K) Forks (K) Google TensorFlow 97 62 Keras-team Keras 28 10 Sci-kit Sci-kit 27 13 BVLC Caffe 23 14 PyTorch PyTorch 14 3 Apache MXNet 13 5 Caffe2 Caffe2 7 1 Baidu PaddlePaddle 6 1 Google Tensor2Tensor 3 0.8 Tencent ANGEL 3 0.8 3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 57
  • 58. OpenTechAI on GitHub (April 29, 2018) Code Stars (K) Forks (K) Tencent NCNN 3 0.8 Google Kubeflow 3 0.3 Microsoft ONNX 3 0.3 Google TensorBoard 1 0.3 Apache SystemML 0.6 0.2 IBM (watson-intu) INTU (10 Repositories) 0.1 0.07 IBM FfDL 0.1 0.04 IBM ART 0.1 0.03 IBM MAX 0.005 0.017 LFDL AT&T Acumos (35 Repositories) 0.01 0 3/24/2023 IBM #OpenTechAI 58
  • 59. Headlines • 2017 Popular – “AI vs People” – “X-Y team up to invest big in AI” • 2025 Commonplace – “People using AI to become better at their professions, serving others.” – “Teenagers using AI to solve challenges, and improve their communities.” • 2085 Resilience – “Teams competing to rapidly rebuild socio-economic-technical systems (wise service systems) from scratch” – “U.N. Pluto-base makes major discovery about nature of universe. U.F.P. established.” 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 59 IEEE 2017
  • 61. Majority of IBM offerings incorporate open technologies 3/24/2023 © IBM MAP COG2018 61 OPEN CONTAINER PROJECT At IBM, employees can win awards for both patents and open source contributions.
  • 63. Learning: Open Innovation Learning (OIL) By David Ing • Ing D (2018) Open Innovation Learning: Theory building on open sourcing while private sourcing. Foreword by Jim Spohrer. Publisher: Toronto Canada: Coevolving Innovations Inc. Publishing. 3/24/2023 © IBM MAP COG2018 63
  • 64. Icons of AI Progress • 1956: Dartmouth Conference organized by: – John McCarthy (Dartmouth, later Stanford) – Marvin Minsky (MIT) – and two senior scientists: • Claude Shannon (Bell Labs) • Nathan Rochester (IBM) • 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) - Chess • 2011: Watson Jeopardy! (IBM) • 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMinds) 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 64
  • 65. AI to IA Timeline: Hard unsolved AI problems • 2012-2017 AI Pattern Recognition and Learning from Massive Labeled Data – Speech, image, translation, driverless, games – Chatbots as digital assistants • 2018 Video Understanding • 2021 Episodic Memory • 2022 Learning from Watching • 2024 Commonsense Reasoning • 2026 Learning from Reading • 2028 Learning from Doing • 2030 Fluent Conversation • 2031-2039 Cognitive Collaborator and Mediator; Intelligence Augmentation (IA) 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 65
  • 66. Jim Spohrer (IBM) For C Mohan Wednesday February 21, 2018 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/nsf-20180124-v18 3/24/2023 66 The Future of AI: Measuring Progress and Preparing
  • 67. Jim Spohrer & Opentech AI group? 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 67 IBM Products and Services to Customers IBM Research (Patents Science Eminence & Differentiation) Open Technologies (Open Source Technical Eminence & Industry Standards) Cognitive Opentech Group (COG) = Open Source AI + Data
  • 69. What exists in 2016? 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 69 360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
  • 70. User Models 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 70
  • 71. $5M Prize 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 71
  • 72. “AI will change the world? Who will change AI?” 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 72
  • 73. “These amazing technologies must be able to help people like myself…” 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 73
  • 75. Real reading and Q&A is hard
  • 76. Good science = Reproducibility
  • 77. In Conclusion • Hundreds of AI Challenge Leaderboards exist and the number is growing • Can one system be built to do them all? See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FpdEmySsuc
  • 78. What types of digital cognitive systems? • Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people) – Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do something important in your personal or professional lives – Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone votes – Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make better choices, find what you are looking for, move around more effectively, provide emotional support, provide IT support, learn about important public policy goals and make better choices • Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 78
  • 79. Types • Tool • Assistant • Collaborat or • Coach • Mediator 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 79
  • 80. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 80
  • 82. Brief History of AI • 1956 – Dartmouth Conference • 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds • 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation • 1988 – Expert Systems Peak • 1990 – AI Winter • 1997 – Deep Blue • 1997 – 2011 Real-World • 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI • 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute • 2014 – Watson Business Unit & • True North Brain Chip • 2015 – “Cognition as a Service” on IBM Bluemix 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 82
  • 83. Definitions: AI vs IA 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 83 AI is Artificial Intelligence, or intelligence in machines (smart machines) IA is Intelligence Augmentation, or people thinking and working together with smart machines. IA is what IBM calls “Cognitive Computing” and the smart machines are called “Watson Solutions” or more generally “Digital Cognitive Systems (Cogs)” Cognition as a Service (CaaS): AI building blocks for IA solutions
  • 86. Societal Grand Challenges 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 86 Solving these would mean we are smarter, but would they mean we are wiser?
  • 88. High School Senior: Anish Krishnan 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 88
  • 89. IBM in Silicon Valley: From Punch Cards…. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 89 On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children, among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special train that carried them across the continent to establish new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.
  • 90. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 90
  • 91. Computing: Then, Now, Projected 3/24/2023 91 2035 2055
  • 92. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 92
  • 94. What types of digital cognitive systems? • Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people) – Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do something important in your personal or professional lives – Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone votes – Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make better choices, find what you are looking for, move around more effectively, provide emotional support, provide IT support, learn about important public policy goals and make better choices • Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 94
  • 95. Partnership for AI formed 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 95
  • 97. 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 97 What might Reality 2.0 look like?
  • 98. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 98
  • 99. How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching? 3/24/2023 99 What might it look like?
  • 100. Reality 2.0 Service Platform: polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2) do not interrupt people (P1,P2) 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 100 Service Platform CM2 P2 CM1 P1 100x 100x 100x
  • 101. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 101 Wise Service System: All entities’ in network use cognitive mediators to enhance value co-creation interactions Cognitive Mediators: Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert) as co-creators of win-win value Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
  • 102. Two assertions • Machines seem to be getting smarter fast. – Agree/disagree? • People do not seem to be getting wiser fast. – Agree/disagree? 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 102 Homo Sapiens means Wise Man: True/False?
  • 103. What is Industry 4.0? 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 103
  • 104. Yesterday: Servitization • Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”
  • 105. Tomorrow: Servitization • Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers • Make the product part of a smart/wise service system – Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything – Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’ performance across their life-cycles – Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product performance, efficiency, maintenance, etc. – Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with financing/Internet of Service – Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability – Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability • Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for service innovation) for innovative university startups
  • 106. Vision: MMaaRRSS • Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System – “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for customer Y.” – Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows – Minimize transport costs (for products and waste) • The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)
  • 107. In Summary 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 107 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  • 108. Backup Slides • Understanding Cognitive Systems 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 108
  • 109. What is a cognitive system (entity)? 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 109
  • 110. What is a digital cognitive system (entity)? 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 110
  • 111. Backup slides • Service systems - http://service- science.info/archives/3368 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 111
  • 112. Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap and co-create wiser service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens with cognitive mediators in the collaborative service economy
  • 113. What is service science? • IBM initiated effort to establish a multidisciplinary field to study service systems … with a focus on people-centered, IT-enabled service innovations for business and society – based on service-dominant logic – service = value co-creation – IT-enabled service architectures – service systems (socio-technical systems for win-win value co-creation) • IBM helped establish – computer science (1945-present) – service science (2005-present) 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 113 Service systems are dynamic configurations of resources (people, technology, organizations, and information) interconnected by value propositions, internally and externally. Examples: - macro: cities, states, nations - meso: hospitals, universities, businesses - micro: households, families, individuals Reference: Spohrer J, Maglio P, Bailey J, Gruhl D (2007) Steps toward a science of service systems. IEEE Computer Society. 40(3):71-77(January).
  • 114. What is service science? • Now over 500 universities globally teach a more multidisciplinary approach to service innovation, including: – Service management and marketing – Service engineering and operations – Service design and arts – Service public policy and economics – Service computing and informatics • SSME + DAPP = Service Science Management Engineering + Design Arts Public Policy – People, technology, organizations, information interconnected by value propositions. 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 114 Reference: IfM & IBM (2008). Succeeding through service innovation: A service perspective for education, research, business and government. University of Cambridge Institute for Manufacturing, Cambridge, UK. 2008.
  • 115. How to get involved? • Weekly speaker series – Service innovation – Service education & research – Smart service/cognitive systems • Discovery summits & book series • Opportunities – Institutional memberships – Leadership & ambassadors – Volunteer opportunities – Awards & sponsored conferences 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 115 ISSIP.org is a non-profit society International Society of Service Innovation Professionals Membership: Over 1000 professionals and students from 40+ countries, 50+ companies and 50+ universities.
  • 116. How to get involved? • Journals (INFORMS, etc.) • Conferences (HICSS, etc.) • Courses (MIT, etc.) • Funding (NSF, etc.) • Society (ISSIP, etc.) 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 116
  • 117. What are the hot topics? • Smart Service Systems: Intelligence Augmentation – AI + AR UX (Artificial Intelligence + Augmented Reality User Experience) – Smartphones (mobile, social, secure, etc.) • Collaborative Economy: Servitization – From assets to co-creation (e.g., Uber, AirBnB, etc.) – From product to capability/outcome-as-a-service – Manufacturing as a local recycling service • Digital Transformation: Trust and Identity – Blockchain: Don Tapscott’s TED Talk & book – Big Data: Service Analytics & HAT (Hub of All Things) 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 117
  • 118. Backups • T-shaped people 3/24/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 118
  • 119. Sciences provide… • Frameworks for people to ask and answer questions systematically • Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do” 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 119 Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking - “To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.” Proenneke: Alone in the Wilderness - To do a thorough testing, should each generation be required to rapidly rebuild from scratch? A re-makers movement?
  • 120. Some paths to becoming 64x smarter: Improving learning and performance • 2x from Learning sciences (methods) – Better models of concepts – Better models of learners • 2x from Learning technology (tools) – Guided learning paths – Elimination of “thrashing” • 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps) – More you know, faster you go – Advanced organizers • 2x from Lifelong learning (time) – Longer lives and longer careers – Keeps “learning-mode” activated • 2x from Early learning (time) – Start earlier: Challenged-based approach – STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems) • 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support) – Technology & Infrastructure Interactions – Organizations & Others Interactions
  • 121. The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 121
  • 122. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 122 Future of Skills
  • 123. T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 123
  • 124. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 124 Future of Skills
  • 126. Next Generation: Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators Many disciplines Many sectors Many regions/cultures (understanding & communications) Deep in one sector Deep in one region/culture Deep in one discipline
  • 127. By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators 3/24/2023 127 Empathy & Teamwork sector region/culture discipline Depth Breadth STEM Liberal Arts
  • 128. IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing… 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 128 So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
  • 130. But this stuff is still really hard… 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 130
  • 131. Social Emotional Skills - Empathy 3/24/2023 © IBM UPWard 2016 131
  • 132. You say you want a revolution? October 8, 2017 https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/revolution-20171008-v23 3/24/2023 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 132
  • 133. 3/24/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 133