Jaist satellite 20180301 v6
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Preparing for our future with open artificial intelligence
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Jaist satellite 20180301 v6
- 1. Jim Spohrer (IBM) JAIST Satellite, Thursday March 1 2018 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/jaist-20180301-v6 3/1/2018 1 Preparing for Our Future with Open Artificial Intelligence (AI)
- 2. IBM: How many know IBM is very active in open source communities? 3/1/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 2 OPEN CONTAINER PROJECT
- 3. GitHub: How many have an account? 3/1/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 3 Technical Eminence: Explore, Read, Pull Request, Contributor, Committer, Governance
- 4. Kaggle: How many know about leaderboards? 3/1/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 4
- 5. Leaderboards Framework AI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles Pattern recognition Video understanding Memory Reasoning Social interactions Fluent conversation Assistant & Collaborator Coach & Mediator Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarizatio n Values ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization) Learning by Watching and Reading (Education) Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration) 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 3/1/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 5 Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer? Approx. Year Human Level ->
- 7. Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x • Cost of Digital Workers – Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by a factor of a… • Thousand times lower in 20 years • Million times lower in 40 years • Billion times lower in 60 years • Smarter Tools (Terascale) – Terascale (2017) = $3K – Terascale (2020) = ~$1K • Narrow Worker (Petascale) – Recognition (Fast) – Petascale (2040) = ~$1K • Broad Worker (Exascale) – Reasoning (Slow) – Exascale (2060) = ~$1K 73/1/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2080204020001960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 206020201980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost T P E T P E AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
- 8. GDP/Employee 3/1/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 8 (Source) Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
- 9. 3/1/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 9 Cognitive Mediators for all people in all roles
- 10. Occupations = Many Tasks 3/1/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 10
- 11. Watson Discovery Advisor 3/1/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 11 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
- 12. TED Arai Todai Robot 3/1/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 12 … when will your smartphone be smart enough to pass a university entrance exam?
- 13. Other Technologies: Bigger impact? Yes. • Augmented Reality (AR)/ Virtual Reality (VR) – Game worlds grow-up • Blockchain/ Security Systems – Trust and security immutable • Advanced Materials/ Energy Systems – Manufacturing as cheap, local recycling service (utility fog, artificial leaf, etc.) 3/1/2018 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 13
- 14. Industries Transformed Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”
- 15. In Sum • Prepare by learning – Opentech AI (GitHub) – Leaderboard Challenges (Kaggle) • Future Trends – Smartphone apps become low-cost digital workers (expertise economy) – Return of mini-local factories and farms (manufacturing and agricultural economy) • Service science studies this evolution 3/1/2018 © IBM MAP COG2018 15
- 16. 3/1/2018 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 16
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Please reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2018) Preparing for Our Future with Open Artificial Intelligence (AI): A Service Science Perspective . WednesdayFebruary 28, 2018 URL ttp://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/jaist-20180228-v4 The Future of AI and Education: Measuring Progress and Preparing An industry perspective and forecast of where technology is going,including the what and when for "solving" Artificial Intelligence (AI),is presented. Next, the benefits and challenges will be discussed,including impact on jobs, both near term via IntelligenceAugmentation (IA) and longer term via automation. The impact ondifferent sectors of the economy will be explored, especially the impacton education, and how best to prepare students and others for thechanges that are anticipated. In conclusion, the importanceof T-shaped skills that integrate deep skills in problem-solving (STEM)and broad skills in communications (both business as well as arts&humanities) will be discussed. The rationale for teaching students, whoare empowered by advanced technologies, to competeto find better ways to rapidly rebuild society from scratch will beexplained. Speaker Bio: Dr. James ("Jim") C. Spohrer is IBM Director, Cognitive Opentech Group.Previously, he was Director of IBM Global University Programs,co-founded IBM Research Service Research area, ISSIP Service Sciencecommunity, and was CTO of IBM’s VC Group in Silicon Valley. At Apple Computer (1990’s), as a Distinguished Engineer Scientist andTechnologist, he developed next generation learning platforms. Earlier(1974-1989), he earned an MIT BS Physics, Yale PhD in CS/AI, and workedat Verbex, an Exxon company on speech recognitionand machine learning. With over ninety publications and nine patents,he is a PICMET Fellow and a winner of the Gummesson Service Researchaward as well as the Vargo&Lusch Service-Dominant Logic award. More information here: Sample presentation:https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/future-20171110-v14 Bio and CV: http://service-science.info/archives/2233
- The majority of IBM’s offerings to customers include open technologies – and customers increasingly demand solutions based on open source code. Tens of thousands of IBMers have GitHub accounts URLS: Htttp://developer.ibm.com/code
- URL: https://guides.github.com/activities/hello-world/
- Expert predictions on HMLI: URL https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf 2015 Pattern Recognition Speech: URL: http://spandh.dcs.shef.ac.uk/chime_challenge/chime2016/results.html 2015 Pattern Recognition Images: URL: http://www.image-net.org/ 2015 Patten Recognition Translation: URL: http://www.statmt.org/wmt17/ 2018 Video Understanding Actions: URL: http://www.thumos.info/home.html > Also UCF101 http://crcv.ucf.edu/data/UCF101.php 2018 Video Understanding Context: URL: http://visualqa.org/challenge.html 2018 Video Understanding DeepVideo: URL: http://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/deepvideo/ 2021 Memory Declarative: URL: https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/ Also Allen AI Kaggle Science Challenge https://www.kaggle.com/c/the-allen-ai-science-challenge 2024 Reasoning Deduction: URL: http://www.satcompetition.org/ 2027: Social Interaction Scripts: URL: https://competitions.codalab.org/competitions/15333 2030: Fluent Conversation Speech Acts: URL: http://convai.io/ 2030: Fluent Conversation Intentions: URL: http://workshop.colips.org/dstc6/ 2030: Fluent Conversation Alexa Prize: URL: https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize 2033: Assistant & Collaborator Summarization: URL: http://rali.iro.umontreal.ca/rali/?q=en/Automatic%20summarization 2033: Assistant & Collaborator Debate: URL: http://argumentationcompetition.org/2015/ 2036: Coach & Mediator General AI: URL: https://www.general-ai-challenge.org/ 2036: Coach & Mediator Negotiation: URL: https://easychair.org/cfp/AT2017
- https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/
- What is beyond Exascale? Zetta (21), Yotta (24) Time dimension (x-axis) is plus or minus 10 years…. Daniel Pakkala (VTT) URL: https://aiimpacts.org/preliminary-prices-for-human-level-hardware/ Dan Gruhl: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1983/11/06/in-pursuit-of-the-10-gigaflop-machine/012c995a-2b16-470b-96df-d823c245306e/?utm_term=.d4bde5652826 In 1983 10 GF was ~10 million. That's 24.55 million in today's dollars. or 2.4 billion for 1 TF in 1983 Today 1 TF is about $3k http://www.popsci.com/intel-teraflop-chip
- Source: http://service-science.info/archives/4741
- O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc. O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time. Source: http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0
- URL: https://www.ted.com/talks/noriko_arai_can_a_robot_pass_a_university_entrance_exam
- The nature of reality changes when there is more than one intelligent species, and we are not the smartest. The nature of reality also changes when the cost of exploring alternate experience pathways are made less risky – the notions of time and identity changes as a result. Mitigate risks and harvest benefits of existence, by learning to evermore efficiently and rapidly rebuild from scratch to higher states of value and capability of entities. The evolving ecology of service system entities their value co-creation and capability co-elevation mechanisms, as well as their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities at each stage in time. Human progress as well as the development of individuals, and the arc of institutions can be viewed in this way. Entities exist as individuals and populations. Generations of entities, generations of species (populations), generations of individuals (cohorts).
- By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.