ICT Role in 21st Century Education & its Challenges.pptx
Community benefits for all 20210511 v3
1.
2. Benefits for All: Creating
Good Community Outcomes
Jim Spohrer
Director, IBM Cognitive OpenTech
Questions: spohrer@gmail.com
Twitter: @JimSpohrer
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/
Slack: https://slack.lfai.foundation
Presentations on line at: https://slideshare.net/spohrer
Thanks to Katrine, Mac, Alex, and Cole for invitation to present
at Community Summit 2021 – May 11, 2021!
Three platforms/communities: People, Code, Information
3. Today’s Talk:
• Title: Benefits for All: Creating Good
Community Outcomes.
Abstract:
• Most people, businesses, universities,
governments aspire to transform into a better
future version of themselves.
• Communities help their members become better
future versions of themselves. Serving each other.
• Mastering new technologies is a transformation
sub-goal of most members - to learn to use
technologies to do something new or in new ways.
• Our IBM community members help each other
transform, according to the progression show me,
teach me, help me, do it for me, the first two are
usually free and the last two are usually for fee.
5/11/2021 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 3
Consumers and society at large are expecting
more from business. Embracing those
responsibilities can be good for shareholders, too.
4. Willie Tejada
IBM General Manager
ISV/Build Ecosystem &
Chief Developer Advocate
https://developer.ibm.com/callforcode/
9. Trust: Two Communities
5/11/2021 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 9
Service
Science
Artificial
Intelligence
Trust:
Value Co-Creation
Responsible Entity Collaborators
Transdisciplinary Community
Trust:
Secure, Fair, Explainable
Machine Collaborators
Open Source Communities
10. Timeline: Every 20 years,
compute costs are down by 1000x
• Cost of Digital Workers
• Moore’s Law can be thought of as
lowering costs by a factor of a…
• Thousand times lower
in 20 years
• Million times lower
in 40 years
• Billion times lower
in 60 years
• Smarter Tools (Terascale)
• Terascale (2017) = $3K
• Terascale (2020) = ~$1K
• Narrow Worker (Petascale)
• Recognition (Fast)
• Petascale (2040) = ~$1K
• Broad Worker (Exascale)
• Reasoning (Slow)
• Exascale (2060) = ~$1K
10
5/11/2021 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group
2080
2040
2000
1960
$1K
$1M
$1B
$1T
2060
2020
1980
+/- 10 years
$1
Person Average
Annual Salary
(Living Income)
Super Computer
Cost
Mainframe Cost
Smartphone Cost
T
P
E
T P E
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
11. Timeline: Leaderboards Framework
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap
Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles
Pattern
recognition
Video
understanding
Memory Reasoning Social
interactions
Fluent
conversation
Assistant &
Collaborator
Coach &
Mediator
Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions
Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI
Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarization Values
ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI
Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation
WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT
Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization)
Learning by Watching and Reading (Education)
Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration)
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039
5/11/2021 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 11
Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer?
Approx.
Year
Human
Level ->
+3
See: https://paperswithcode.com/sota
12. IA Progression – Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator
5/11/2021 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 12
Rouse & Spohrer (2018)
Siddike, Spohrer, Demirkan, Kodha (2018)
Araya (2018)
Spohrer& Siddike (2018)
14. Two disciplines: Two approaches to the future
Artificial Intelligence is almost seventy-years-old discipline in computer
science that studies automation and builds more capable technological
systems. AI tries to understand the intelligent things that people can do
and then does those things with technology. (https://deepmind.com/about “...
we aim to build advanced AI - sometimes known as Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) - to
expand our knowledge and find new answers. By solving this, we believe we could help
people solve thousands of problems.”)
Service science is an emerging transdiscipline not yet twenty-years- old
that studies transformation and builds smarter and wiser socoi-
technical systems – families, businesses, nations, platforms and other
special types of responsible entities and their win-win interactions that
transform value co-creation and capability co-elevation mechanisms
that build more resilient future versions of themselves – what we call
service systems entities. Service science tries to understand the
evolving ecology of service system entities, their capabilities,
constraints, rights, and responsibilities, and then then seeks to improve
the quality of life of people (present/smarter and future/wiser) in those
service systems.
26-30 July 2015 3rd International Conference on The Human Side of Service Engineering
14
Artificial Intelligence
Automation
Generations of machines
Service Science
Transformation
Generations of people
(responsible entities)
Service systems are dynamic configurations of people,
technology, organizations, and information, connected
internally and externally by value propositions, to other
service system entities. (Maglio et al 2009)
15. Today’s Talk:
• Title: Benefits for All: Creating Good Community
Outcomes.
Abstract: The 2020 pandemic is accelerating the
digital (information technologies)
transformation of society, including online
working, learning, playing and belonging. The
future of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will bring
even greater acceleration and transformations,
including Responsible Entities Learning. Service
science predicts that in this transformation of
business and society that competing for
collaborators will increasingly shape value co-
creation interactions and capability co-elevation
outcomes between responsible entities learning.
5/11/2021 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 15
Consumers and society at large are expecting
more from business. Embracing those
responsibilities can be good for shareholders, too.
16. Accelerating shift - from employees to earners in
platform society
Farrrel D, Grieg F (2014)
Online Platform
Economy.
17. Upskilling…
T-shapes (l)earners…
on multiple platforms
Rodgers S (2016) Jeremiah
Owyang on the Collaborative
Economy.
Kenny M, Zysman J (2016) The
Rise of the Platform Economy.
20. Time - Session Speakers
8:00 - Welcome (10 minutes) ISSIP President, Ulf Vinneras (Aruba Networks, USA)
ISSIP Executive Director, Yassi Moghaddam (ISSIP, USA)
Event Chair/Contact, Jim Spohrer (IBM, USA) <spohrer@us.ibm.com>
Event Whitepaper Author, Ralph Badinelli (Virginia Tech, USA)
8:10 - First Panel (1 hr & 20 min)
Business Processes
Moderator /Chair opening (5 min) Rama Akkiraju (IBM, USA)
Speaker 1 (15 min) Jerry Cuomo (IBM, USA)
Speaker 2 (15 min) Marlon Dumas (U Tartu, Estonia)
Speaker 3 (15 min) Wil van der Aalst (U Aachen, Germany)
Speaker 4 (15 min) Vik Sohoni (McKinsey, USA)
Discussion (15 min)
9:30 - Break (10 minutes)
9:40 - Second Panel (1 hr & 20 min)
Digital Twins & Future Trends
Moderator/Chair opening (5 min) Terri Griffith (Simon Fraser U, Canada)
Speaker 5 (15 min) Shaun West (Lucerne U, Switzerland)
Speaker 6 (15 min) Hausi Muller (U Victoria, Canada)
Speaker 7 (15 min) Bob Cohen (Economics Institute, USA)
Speaker 8 (15 min) Erin Bishop-Rapacki (Robot Startups & Investing, USA)
Discussion (15 Min)
11:00 - Closing
21. Jim Spohrer, IBM
Director, Cognitive OpenTech
Jim Spohrer directs IBM’s open-source Artificial Intelligence developer
ecosystem effort. After his MIT BS in Physics, he developed speech recognition
systems at Verbex (Exxon) before receiving his Yale PhD in Computer Science/AI.
In the 1990’s, he attained Apple Computers’ Distinguished Engineer Scientist
and Technologist role for next generation learning platforms. He was CTO IBM
Venture Capital Group, co-founded IBM Almaden Service Research, and led IBM
Global University Programs. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he
received the Gummesson Service Research award, Vargo and Lusch Service-
Dominant Logic award, Daniel Berg Service Systems award, and a PICMET Fellow
for advancing service science. Jim was elected as LF AI Technical Advisory Board
Chairperson and ONNX Steering Committee Member (2020-2021).
5/11/2021 (c) IBM 2020, Cognitive Opentech Group 21
Thank-you for the opportunity to share some thoughts with you all today. My contact and this presentation is on slideshare.
Title: Community Benefits for All!
Abstract: The 2020 pandemic is accelerating the digital (information technologies) transformation of society, including online working, learning, playing and belonging. The future of AI will bring even greater acceleration and transformations. Service science predicts that in this transformation of business and society that competing for collaborators will increasingly shape value co-creation interactions and capability co-elevation outcomes between entities in the coming decades. A community view is presented.
Bio: Jim Spohrer directs IBM’s open source Artificial Intelligence developer ecosystem effort. He led IBM Global University Programs, co-founded Almaden Service Research, and was CTO Venture Capital Group. After his MIT BS in Physics, he developed speech recognition systems at Verbex (Exxon) before receiving his Yale PhD in Computer Science/AI. In the 1990’s, he attained Apple Computers’Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist role for next generation learning platforms. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he received the Gummesson Service Research award, Vargo and Lusch Service-Dominant Logic award, Daniel Berg Service Systems award, and a PICMET Fellow for advancing service science.
The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of AI and robotics in service systems.
Many questions arise – so let’s get started.
”Technology doing something” is called a workload. Making sure workloads can run securely, reliably, at scale, anywhere is what IBM does for the world. This is the essence of IBM’s hybrid cloud and AI strategy, with Red Hat OpenShift.
IBM is 110 years old. Has been #1 in the world for patents for 28+years in a row. With 350K employees world wide. Also in the top five open source contributers.
Why learn to use technology – usually to make the routine go faster, to free up time for scanning for transform or more time to innovate.
URL https://developer.ibm.com
Communities help their members become better future versions of themselves. Most people, businesses, universities, governments aspire to transform into a better future version of themselves. A sub-goal is to learn to use technologies to do something new or in new ways. IBM helps entities transform, according to show me, teach me, help me, do it for me, the first two are usually free and the last two are usually for fee. ”Technology doing something” is called a workload. Making sure workloads can run securely, anywhere is what IBM does for the world.
Yassi Moghaddam https://www.linkedin.com/in/yassimoghaddam/
Before introducing the moderator of the first panel, I would also like to add my welcome and thank-you to our speakers today. ISSIP Discovery Summits would not be possible without experts who are willing to share their knowledge and provide their point-of-view on important topics like AI and Automation that can be used to improve service system design and performance. ISSIP awards a badge for knowledge sharing eminence to each speakers as a small thank-you for their generosity. All ISSIP members are encouraged to submit application for the annual ISSIP Excellence in Service Innovation Award. All ISSIP members are invited to attend ISSIP Progress and Open Board of Director meetings which celebrate member accomplishments, professional development milestones and growth opportunities, and noteworthy innovations.
A quick reminder that this meeting is being recorded, and please stay on mute and type your questions/comments into the chat so the moderators can select which questions to ask the panelists. If you are a member of ISSIP slack, then you can type your questions there if you prefer. Also, in ISSIP Slack, attendees who are also expert on the topic of AI & Automation are invited to share additional points-of-vie for possible inclusion in the whitepaper that is being authored by Prof. Ralph Badinelli (ISSIP Board of Directors member, and former ISSIP President).
The next slide introduces Rama Akkiraju who will moderate the first panel.
The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems.
By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains.
Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine.
However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
Today, I am the Director of IBM CODAIT
Source: Vijay Bommireddipally (CODAIT Director) and Fred Reiss (CODAIT Chief Architect)
For those wondering what the common denominator is between service science and artificial intelligence – it is trust.
This slide is my version of Moore’s Law – just draw seven verticals every 20 years from 1960 to 2080, and five horizonal lines for $1 to $1T. Computing power is the diagonal lines. Today in 2020, for example, a terascale a million millions instructions per second is available for about$1K and petascale is available for 10M to 100M. Exascale is predicted to be available for $1K in 2060 – we will see – no one knows the future. The yellow line going down is the cost of digital workers, if you think of a CEO buying an AI capability for a particular price this is an important prediction. This can also be interpreted as the apps on your smart phones growing up to become digital workers with a voice interface.
What is beyond Exascale? Zetta (21), Yotta (24)
Time dimension (x-axis) is plus or minus 10 years….
Daniel Pakkala (VTT)
URL: https://aiimpacts.org/preliminary-prices-for-human-level-hardware/
Dan Gruhl:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1983/11/06/in-pursuit-of-the-10-gigaflop-machine/012c995a-2b16-470b-96df-d823c245306e/?utm_term=.d4bde5652826
In 1983 10 GF was ~10 million.
That's 24.55 million in today's dollars.
or 2.4 billion for 1 TF in 1983
Today 1 TF is about $3k http://www.popsci.com/intel-teraflop-chip
In addition, to monitoring and driving increasing compute at lower energy cost – IBM is also tracking advances in open source AI on leaderboards, and based on the performance of open source AI for specific tasks, we can also predict when a particular capability is likely to reach human level performance (about 5% error rate, depending on the task).
+3 from original estimates, getting video understanding (verbs and nouns and context) and episodic dynamic memory for learning events and expectation violations and importance is taking longer than expected…
Expert predictions on HMLI: URL https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf
2015 Pattern Recognition Speech: URL: http://spandh.dcs.shef.ac.uk/chime_challenge/chime2016/results.html
2015 Pattern Recognition Images: URL: http://www.image-net.org/
2015 Patten Recognition Translation: URL: http://www.statmt.org/wmt17/
2018 Video Understanding Actions: URL: http://www.thumos.info/home.html
> Also UCF101 http://crcv.ucf.edu/data/UCF101.php
2018 Video Understanding Context: URL: http://visualqa.org/challenge.html
2018 Video Understanding DeepVideo: URL: http://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/deepvideo/
2021 Memory Declarative: URL: https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/
Also Allen AI Kaggle Science Challenge https://www.kaggle.com/c/the-allen-ai-science-challenge
2024 Reasoning Deduction: URL: http://www.satcompetition.org/
2027: Social Interaction Scripts: URL: https://competitions.codalab.org/competitions/15333
2030: Fluent Conversation Speech Acts: URL: http://convai.io/
2030: Fluent Conversation Intentions: URL: http://workshop.colips.org/dstc6/
2030: Fluent Conversation Alexa Prize: URL: https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize
2033: Assistant & Collaborator Summarization: URL: http://rali.iro.umontreal.ca/rali/?q=en/Automatic%20summarization
2033: Assistant & Collaborator Debate: URL: http://argumentationcompetition.org/2015/
2036: Coach & Mediator General AI: URL: https://www.general-ai-challenge.org/
2036: Coach & Mediator Negotiation: URL: https://easychair.org/cfp/AT2017
Spohrer J, Siddike (2018) The Future of Digital Cognitive Systems: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator. In Ed. Araya D. Augmented Intelligence: Smart Systems and the Future of Work and Learning. Peter Lang International Academic Publishers; 2018 Sep 28.
Siddike MA, Spohrer J, Demirkan H, Kohda Y. A Framework of Enhanced Performance: People's Interactions With Cognitive Assistants. International Journal of Systems and Service-Oriented Engineering (IJSSOE). 2018 Jul 1;8(3):1-7.
Rouse WB, Spohrer JC. Automating versus augmenting intelligence. Journal of Enterprise Transformation. 2018 Feb 7:1-21.
Araya D. Augmented Intelligence: Smart Systems and the Future of Work and Learning. Peter Lang International Academic Publishers; 2018 Sep 28.
The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems.
By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains.
Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine.
However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
What does it mean to solve automation? Transformation?
The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of AI and robotics in service systems.
Many questions arise – so let’s get started.
Farrel and Grieg 2014 nicely define labor platforms (doing tasks) versus capital platforms (selling goods or renting assets/assets as a service) for earners.
Think of retired people - multiple sources of earning income streams - based on tasks and assets as a income/earning service.
The work of Owyang on the collaborative economy and Kenny and Zysman on the Platform economy share best practices, opportunities, and challenges ahead for earners, and upskilling to earn, versus reskilling for a job is clearly the trend for the future – earning from multiple sources. Retirees already do that in the US – SS, Pension, Dividends, Freeland – multiple diverse sources of income that require upskilling to earn the most from a variety of sources.
For more on upskilling, I recommend these two books.
Emails
Ulf Vinneras <ulf@vinneras.com>,
Yassi Moghaddam <yassi@issip.org>,
Jim Spohrer <spohrer@us.ibm.com>,
Ralph Badinelli <ralphb@vt.edu>,
Rama Akkiraju <akkiraju@us.ibm.com>,
Jerry Cuomo <gcuomo@us.ibm.com>.
Marlon Dumas <marlon.dumas@ut.ee>,
Wil van der Aalst <wvdaalst@pads.rwth-aachen.de>,
Vik Sohoni <vik_sohoni@mckinsey.com>,
Terri Griffith <t@terrigriffith.com>,
Shaun West <shaun.west@hslu.ch>,
Hausi Muller <hausimuller@gmail.com>,
Bob Cohen <bcohen@bway.net>,
Erin Rapacki <erin@machineinbound.com>
Linkedin
Ulf Vinneras https://www.linkedin.com/in/ulf-vinneras/
Yassi Modhaddam https://www.linkedin.com/in/yassimoghaddam/
Jim Spohrer https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/
Ralph Badinelli https://www.linkedin.com/in/ralphbadinelli/
Rama Akkiraju https://www.linkedin.com/in/ramaakkiraju/
Jerry Cuomo https://www.linkedin.com/in/jerry-cuomo/
Marlon Dumas https://www.linkedin.com/in/marlondumas/
Wil van der Aalst https://www.linkedin.com/in/wvdaalst/
Vik Sohoni https://www.linkedin.com/in/viksohoni/
Terri Griffith https://www.linkedin.com/in/terrigriffith/
Shaun West https://www.linkedin.com/in/shaunwest/
Hausi Muller https://www.linkedin.com/in/hausi/
Bob Cohen https://www.linkedin.com/in/robertcohen2008/
Erin Bishop-Rapacki https://www.linkedin.com/in/erapacki/
Here is my brief bio.
I am Jim Spohrer, IBM’s Director of Cognitive OpenTech – meaning I lead open source AI for the part of IBM which works with software developers globally.
As a result of my work in service science, I have won a number of awards, including the Gummesson Service Research Award, Vargo and Lusch Service-Dominant Logic Award, Daniel Berg Service Systems Award, and the PICMET Fellow award for advancing service science.
Here is my bio in terms of systems that I have studies.
However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people…. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds…
The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology.
The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence – which inform cognitive science.
Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities – but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in.
Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385