20201213 jim spohrer icis augmented intelligence v6
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AIS ICSIS 2020 Conference - Panel on Augmented Intelligence, Intelligence Augmentation (ICIS 2020)
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20201213 jim spohrer icis augmented intelligence v6
- 1. Augmented Intelligence, also known as Intelligence Augmentation (IA) Jim Spohrer Director, IBM Cognitive OpenTech Questions: spohrer@gmail.com Twitter: @JimSpohrer LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/ Slack: https://slack.lfai.foundation Presentations on line at: https://slideshare.net/spohrer Thanks to Prof. Lina Zhou for invitation to present! Department of Business Information Systems and Operations Management (BISOM) in the Belk College of Business at UNC Charlotte AIS/ICIS Ancillary Meeting and Event Schedule Sunday December 13, 2020 10:30am ET
- 2. Jim Spohrer, IBM Director, Cognitive OpenTech Jim Spohrer directs IBM’s open-source Artificial Intelligence developer ecosystem effort. After his MIT BS in Physics, he developed speech recognition systems at Verbex (Exxon) before receiving his Yale PhD in Computer Science/AI. In the 1990’s, he attained Apple Computers’ Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist role for next generation learning platforms. He was CTO IBM Venture Capital Group, co-founded IBM Almaden Service Research, and led IBM Global University Programs. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he received the Gummesson Service Research award, Vargo and Lusch Service-Dominant Logic award, Daniel Berg Service Systems award, and a PICMET Fellow for advancing service science. Jim was elected as LF AI Technical Advisory Board Chairperson and ONNX Steering Committee Member (2020-2021). 12/13/2020 (c) IBM 2020, Cognitive Opentech Group 2
- 3. Intelligence Augmentation (IA) = Socio-Technical Extension Factor on Capabilities • Engelbart (1962) • Spohrer & Engelbart (2002) 12/13/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 3 Dedicated to Douglas E. Engelbart, Inventor The Mouse (Pointing Device) The Mother of All Demos Bootstrapping Practice/Augmentation Theory Note: Bush (1945) and Licklider (1960) created funding programs that benefitted Engelbart in building working systems.
- 4. IA as Socio-Technical Extension Factor on Capabilities & Values IA (human values) is not AI (technology capability) Difference 1: IA leads to more capable people even when scaffold removed Difference 2: IA leads to more responsible people to use wisely the capabilities 12/13/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 4 Superminds Malone (2018) Things that Make Us Smart Norman (1994) Worldboard Augmented Perception Spohrer (1999) Bicycles for the Mind Kay & Jobs (1984) Techno-Extension Factor Measurement & Accelerating Socio-Technical Design Loop Kline (1996)
- 5. IA Progression – Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator 12/13/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 5 Rouse & Spohrer (2018) Siddike, Spohrer, Demirkan, Kodha (2018) Araya (2018) Spohrer& Siddike (2018)
- 6. When AI & AI? Timeline: Every 20 years, compute costs are down by 1000x • Cost of Digital Workers • Moore’s Law can be thought of as lowering costs by a factor of a… • Thousand times lower in 20 years • Million times lower in 40 years • Billion times lower in 60 years • Smarter Tools (Terascale) • Terascale (2017) = $3K • Terascale (2020) = ~$1K • Narrow Worker (Petascale) • Recognition (Fast) • Petascale (2040) = ~$1K • Broad Worker (Exascale) • Reasoning (Slow) • Exascale (2060) = ~$1K 612/13/2020 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 2080204020001960 $1K $1M $1B $1T 206020201980 +/- 10 years $1 Person Average Annual Salary (Living Income) Super Computer Cost Mainframe Cost Smartphone Cost T P E T P E AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
- 7. Trust is key: Two communities 12/13/2020 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 7 Service Science Artificial Intelligence Trust: Value Co-Creation Responsible Entity Collaborators Transdisciplinary Community Trust: Secure, Fair, Explainable Machine Collaborators Open Source Communities Special Issue AI Magazine? Handbook of OpenTech AI?
- 8. 12/13/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 8
- 9. 12/13/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 9 Skills Gap: From I-Shaped Employees to T-shaped (L)earners in a Platform Society T-shaped Adaptive Innovator: Deep Problem-Solving and Broad Communication/Collaboration Advanced Tech: AI to IoT to Quantum, GreenTech, RegTech, etc. Work Practices: Agile, Service Design, Open Source Mindset: Growth Mindset, Positive Mindset, Entrepreneurial Many disciplines Many sectors Many regions/cultures (understanding & communications) Deepinonesector Deepinoneregion/culture Deepinonediscipline
- 10. Upskilling… T-shaped (l)earners Gardner P, Maietta HN (2020) Advancing Talent Development: Steps Toward a T-Model Infused Undergraduate Education. Moghaddam Y, Demirkan H, Spohrer J (2018) T- Shaped Professionals: Adaptive Innovators.
- 11. Bigger IA Trend in Human Time Usage & Skills As smartphone apps grow up and people have 100 digital workers “earning” for them (owners) on platforms • Hunter Gathers – local sourcing, generalist • Agriculture – local sourcing, generalist – cities specialists • Manufacturing – outsourcing to production business, specialists • Clothing to Shopping • Service (pre-AI) – outsourcing to service businesses, specialist • Cooking to Restaurants • Service (post-AI & miniaturization) – insourcing, T- shapes • T-shaped (l)earners in platform society, home again 12/13/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 11 Spohrer & Maglio (2006) SSME, Slide #42 Spohrer (2020) Platform Economy and Shift in Work
- 12. References • Araya D (2018) Augmented Intelligence: Smart Systems and the Future of Work and Learning. Peter Lang International Academic Publishers; 2018 Sep 28. • Bush V (1945) As we may think. The Atlantic Monthly. 1945 Jul 1;176(1):101-8. • Engelbart D (1962) Augmenting human intellect. Summary report AFOSR-3223 under Contract AF. 1962 Oct;49(638):1024. • Gardner P, Maietta HN (2020) Advancing Talent Development: Steps Toward a T-Model Infused Undergraduate Education. Business Expert Press. URL: https://www.amazon.com/Advancing-Talent-Development-Undergraduate-Education/dp/1951527062 • Kay A, Jobs S (1984) Wheels for the Mind. Apple Computer. • Kline SJ (1995) Conceptual foundations for multidisciplinary thinking. Stanford University Press; 1995. • Licklider JC (1960) . Man-computer symbiosis. IRE transactions on human factors in electronics. 1960 Mar(1):4-11. • Malone TW (2018) Superminds: The surprising power of people and computers thinking together. Little, Brown Spark; 2018 May 15. • Norman D (1994) Things that make us smart: Defending human attributes in the age of the machine. Diversion Books; 2014 Dec 2. • Rouse WB, Spohrer JC (2018) Automating versus augmenting intelligence. Journal of Enterprise Transformation. 2018 Feb 7:1-21. • Siddike MA, Spohrer J, Demirkan H, Kohda Y (2018) A Framework of Enhanced Performance: People's Interactions With Cognitive Assistants. International Journal of Systems and Service-Oriented Engineering (IJSSOE). 2018 Jul 1;8(3):1-7. • Spohrer JC (1998) Information in places. IBM Systems Journal. 1999;38(4):602-28. • Spohrer JC, Engelbart DC (2004) Converging technologies for enhancing human performance: Science and business perspectives. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 2004 May;1013(1):50-82. • Spohrer J, Siddike (2018) The Future of Digital Cognitive Systems: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator. In Ed. Araya D. Augmented Intelligence: Smart Systems and the Future of Work and Learning. Peter Lang International Academic Publishers; 2018 Sep 28. • Spohrer J (2020) Online Platform Economy and Gig Workers: A USA Perspective. Presentation. • Spohrer J & Maglio PP (2006) Service Science Management and Engineering (SSME): An Emerging Discipline. IBM Presentation. 12/13/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 12
- 13. 12/13/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 13
- 14. 12/13/2020 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 14 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems (MIT) Cognitive Systems (Yale) Service Systems (IBM)
- 15. Service Science: Conceptual Framework 12/13/2020 (c) IBM MAP COG .| 15 Service Science
- 16. (c) IBM MAP COG .| 16 Service Science: Transdisciplinary Framework to Study Service Systems Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that governSystems that support people’s activities transportation & supply chain water & waste food & products energy & electricity building & construction healthcare & family retail & hospitality banking & finance ICT & cloud education &work city secure state scale nation laws social sciences behavioral sciences management sciences political sciences learning sciences cognitive sciences system sciences information sciences organization sciences decision sciences run professions transform professions innovate professions e.g., econ & law e.g., marketing e.g., operations e.g., public policy e.g., game theory and strategy e.g., psychology e.g., industrial eng. e.g., computer sci e.g., knowledge mgmt e.g., statistics e.g., knowledge worker e.g., consultant e.g., entrepreneur stakeholders Customer Provider Authority Competitors resources People Technology Information Organizations change History (Data Analytics) Future (Roadmap) value Run Transform (Copy) Innovate (Invent) Stackholders (As-Is) Resources (As-Is) Change (Might-Become) Value (To-Be)
- 17. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
- 18. Exoskeletons for Elderly • A walker is a “very cost-effective” solution for people with limited mobility, but “it completely disempowers, removes dignity, removes freedom, and causes a whole host of other psychological problems,” SRI Ventures president Manish Kothari says. “Superflex’s goal is to remove all of those areas that cause psychological-type encumbrances and, ultimately, redignify the individual." 12/13/2020 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 18
- 19. 12/13/2020 19 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Better Building Blocks
- 20. 10 million minutes of experience 12/13/2020 Understanding Cognitive Systems 20
- 21. 2 million minutes of experience 12/13/2020 Understanding Cognitive Systems 21
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Thank-you for the opportunity to share some thoughts with you all today. My contact and this presentation is on slideshare. URL to meeting: https://icis2020.aisconferences.org/ancillary-meetings-events/#toggle-id-20 URL to host: https://belkcollege.uncc.edu/directory/lina-zhou Julie – LinkedIN - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/juliebasu_icis-ancillary-meeting-panel-on-augmented-activity-6742951002611163136-3LK8 Post my slides to linkedin above Conference - https://icis2020.aisconferences.org/ As we continuously witness scientific and application breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, such as deep learning, chatbots, self-driving cars, and smart devices, the relationship between machine intelligence and human intelligence has become a major field of intellectual inquiry. Augmented intelligence aims to enhance human intelligence with computers, which has a different focus from autonomous decisions and behaviors in artificial intelligence. On a related note, augmented cognition uses the tools of neuroscience and principles of human-computer interaction to provide real-time feedback of cognitive or emotional states. Augmented intelligence has generated significant impacts on various parts of our work and lives. This 90-minute panel will discuss the conceptual and practical implications of computing technologies for enhancing humans’ decision-making, cognitive process, and work. The panelists, consisting of both academic and industry experts in augmented intelligence, will be sharing their findings, thoughts, and visions on how to better understand and harness the power of augmented intelligence. Julie Basu, CEO, founder, and Head of R&D at smartQED Jim Spohrer, IBM Director, Cognitive OpenTech Lingyao (Ivy) Yuan, Assistant Professor of Information Systems, Iowa State University Michelle Zhou is a Co-Founder and CEO of Juji, Inc. About the panelists: Jim Spohrer directs IBM’s open-source Artificial Intelligence developer ecosystem effort. After his MIT BS in Physics, he developed speech recognition systems at Verbex (Exxon) before receiving his Yale PhD in Computer Science/AI. In the 1990’s, he attained Apple Computers’ Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist role for next generation learning platforms. He was CTO IBM Venture Capital Group, co-founded IBM Almaden Service Research, and led IBM Global University Programs. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he received the Gummesson Service Research award, Vargo and Lusch Service-Dominant Logic award, Daniel Berg Service Systems award, and a PICMET Fellow for advancing service science. Jim was elected as LF AI Technical Advisory Board Chairperson and ONNX Steering Committee Member (2020-2021). Jim is ISSIP.org founding board member. Dr. Michelle Zhou is a Co-Founder and CEO of Juji, Inc., an Artificial Intelligence (AI) startup located in Silicon Valley, specializing in building state-of-the-art AI technologies and solutions that enable the rapid creation and adoption of responsible and empathetic AI agents. Prior to starting Juji, Michelle led and managed the User Systems and Experience Research (USER) group at IBM Research – Almaden and then the IBM Watson Group. Michelle’s expertise is in the interdisciplinary area of intelligent user interaction (IUI), including conversational AI systems and personality analytics. She is an inventor of the IBM Watson Personality Insights and has led the development and commercialization of at least a dozen products in her areas of expertise. Michelle is the current Editor-in-Chief of the ACM Transactions on Interactive Intelligent Systems (TiiS). Michelle has published over 100 peer-reviewed, refereed scientific articles and 45 patents. She received a Ph.D. in Computer Science from Columbia University and is an ACM Distinguished Scientist. Julie Basu, PhD, is the CEO, founder, and Head of R&D at smartQED (https://smartqed.ai), a collaboration & AI startup located in Silicon Valley. Her current work focuses on accelerating the resolution of problems and incidents through effective visualization of investigations along with augmented intelligence that learns from humans as they work. This patent-pending technology has applications in enterprise IT operations, customer support, and general root cause analysis in different domains. Earlier Julie worked at Oracle Corporation in Redwood Shores, leading the design and development of several enterprise software products. She is a co-inventor of 5 patents awarded by the USPTO. Julie received a Master’s and a PhD degree from Stanford University. Her PhD thesis was on the performance optimization of databases through caching of query results. Lingyao (Ivy) Yuan is an Assistant Professor of Information Systems and Business Analytics of Debbie and Jerry Ivy College of Business at Iowa State University. Her research interests include the impact of non-cognition behavior and decision making, especially the impact of emotion, on computer mediated communication, decision making, and collaboration. She has conducted research in the fields of augmented intelligence, virtual reality, neural rendering, and human realistic avatars in the context of electronic commerce. She works in collaboration with MOTUS lab at University of Sydney on neural rendering and human realistic avatars. Her research related to the area of augmented intelligence has been published in the Decision Sciences, Journal of Management Information Systems, Journal of the Association for Information Systems, and AIS Transactions on Human-Computer Interaction as well as several conferences including International Conference on Information Systems, Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, and INFOMRS Annual Meeting.
- Here is my brief bio. I am Jim Spohrer, IBM’s Director of Cognitive OpenTech – meaning I lead open source AI for the part of IBM which works with software developers globally. As a result of my work in service science, I have won a number of awards, including the Gummesson Service Research Award, Vargo and Lusch Service-Dominant Logic Award, Daniel Berg Service Systems Award, and the PICMET Fellow award for advancing service science.
- Engelbart D. Augmenting human intellect. Summary report AFOSR-3223 under Contract AF. 1962 Oct;49(638):1024. Spohrer JC, Engelbart DC. Converging technologies for enhancing human performance: Science and business perspectives. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 2004 May;1013(1):50-82. Licklider (1960) https://groups.csail.mit.edu/medg/people/psz/Licklider.html - focus scientists, engineers, etc. Me to Everyone (8:30 AM) Bush (1945) https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1945/07/as-we-may-think/303881/ - as we may think Me to Everyone (8:30 AM) Engelbart (1962) started building it :-) https://web.stanford.edu/dept/SUL/library/extra4/sloan/mousesite/EngelbartPapers/B5_F18_ConceptFrameworkInd.html Bush and Licklider envisioned it Me to Everyone (8:31 AM) Bush and Licklider funded programs that benefitted Engelbart building it As people gain more powers (super-powers) - augmented capabilities - intelligence, physical strength, social interaction capabilities, perception, etc. - we need to become more responsible and wiser - these are the human-value aspects we discussed at HICSS panel that Ivy lead in Jan 2020. @Ivy - agreed. AI will be the greatest tool so far, to help us people understand ourselves better. We are already getting insights into human bias thanks to AI Trusted AI is so important that IBM continues to develop it and in open source - shared with the world, and benefitting from many collaborators - see Trusted AI at Linux Foundation AI & Data (I am TAC chair there) https://lfaidata.foundation/projects/trusted-ai/ please feel free to join our Slack discussion on open source AI at https://slack.lfaidata.foundation For Trusted AI and Responsible People - we have been developing at LF AI & Data - (RREPEATS - Reproducibility, Robustness, Explainability, Privacy, Equitability, Accountability, Transparency, Security)
- Kline SJ. Conceptual foundations for multidisciplinary thinking. Stanford University Press; 1995. Malone TW. Superminds: The surprising power of people and computers thinking together. Little, Brown Spark; 2018 May 15. Norman D. Things that make us smart: Defending human attributes in the age of the machine. Diversion Books; 2014 Dec 2. Spohrer JC. Information in places. IBM Systems Journal. 1999;38(4):602-28. Alan Kay & Steven Jobs - Bicycles for the mind (two types of IA) Don Norman – Thinks that make us smart Stephen J. Kline – Conceptual Foundations of Multi-Disciplinary Thinking Jim Spohrer – World Board (Augmented Reality – Perception Augmentation) Tom Malone – Super Intelligence
- Spohrer J, Siddike (2018) The Future of Digital Cognitive Systems: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator. In Ed. Araya D. Augmented Intelligence: Smart Systems and the Future of Work and Learning. Peter Lang International Academic Publishers; 2018 Sep 28. Siddike MA, Spohrer J, Demirkan H, Kohda Y. A Framework of Enhanced Performance: People's Interactions With Cognitive Assistants. International Journal of Systems and Service-Oriented Engineering (IJSSOE). 2018 Jul 1;8(3):1-7. Rouse WB, Spohrer JC. Automating versus augmenting intelligence. Journal of Enterprise Transformation. 2018 Feb 7:1-21. Araya D. Augmented Intelligence: Smart Systems and the Future of Work and Learning. Peter Lang International Academic Publishers; 2018 Sep 28.
- This slide is my version of Moore’s Law – just draw seven verticals every 20 years from 1960 to 2080, and five horizonal lines for $1 to $1T. Computing power is the diagonal lines. Today in 2020, for example, a terascale a million millions instructions per second is available for about$1K and petascale is available for 10M to 100M. Exascale is predicted to be available for $1K in 2060 – we will see – no one knows the future. The yellow line going down is the cost of digital workers, if you think of a CEO buying an AI capability for a particular price this is an important prediction. This can also be interpreted as the apps on your smart phones growing up to become digital workers with a voice interface. What is beyond Exascale? Zetta (21), Yotta (24) Time dimension (x-axis) is plus or minus 10 years…. Daniel Pakkala (VTT) URL: https://aiimpacts.org/preliminary-prices-for-human-level-hardware/ Dan Gruhl: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1983/11/06/in-pursuit-of-the-10-gigaflop-machine/012c995a-2b16-470b-96df-d823c245306e/?utm_term=.d4bde5652826 In 1983 10 GF was ~10 million. That's 24.55 million in today's dollars. or 2.4 billion for 1 TF in 1983 Today 1 TF is about $3k http://www.popsci.com/intel-teraflop-chip
- For those wondering what the common denominator is between service science and artificial intelligence – it is trust.
- Today, I am the Director of IBM CODAIT Source: Vijay Bommireddipally (CODAIT Director) and Fred Reiss (CODAIT Chief Architect)
- For more on upskilling, I recommend these two books.
- Spohrer J (2020) Online Platform Economy and Gig Workers: A USA Perspective. URL: https://www2.slideshare.net/spohrer/20201209-jim-spohrer-platform-economy-v3 Spohrer J & Maglio PP (2006) Service Science Management and Engineering (SSME): An Emerging Discipline. URL: https://www2.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-and-maglio-yorktown-20061020-v2
- Visit IBM Research – Almaden, San Jose, CA USA 05120 – instructions: http://service-science.info/archives/4679 Join ISSIP.org – it’s free for individuals to join and get monthly newsletter: http://service-science.info/archives/4901 Contribute a short book to our series – blog compilations welcomed - http://www.businessexpertpress.com/product-category/service-systems-and-innovations-in-business-and-society/ We are trying to make complex servce systems things simpler – but not too simple. Wise innovation increase resilience with abundant opportunities for all.
- Here is my bio in terms of systems that I have studies. However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people…. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds… The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology. The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence – which inform cognitive science. Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities – but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in. Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385
- Service_Science Conceptual_Framework In the Handbook of Service Science, and other publications, we have layed out the conceptual foundations of service science – the first approximation of terms we believe every service scientist should know… The world view is that of an ecology of service-system-entities. Ecology is the study of the populations of entities, and their interactions with each other and the environment Types of Service System Entities, Interactions, and Outcomes is what a service scientist studies. Service systems include: Person, Family/Household, Business, Citiy, Nation, University, Hospital, Call-Center, Data-Center, etc. – any legal entity that can own property and be sued We see that Resources (People, Technology, Information, Organizations) and Stakeholder (Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors) are part of the conceptual framework for service science.
- By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
- URL: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601420/the-elderly-may-toss-their-walkers-for-this-robotic-suit/
- The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?