Climate Change Research Needs: Sectoral Impact Analysis, Vulnerability & Risk...
For web ocs salcc steering committee 2 feb11
1. Optimal conservation
strategies for dynamic
landscapes
James B. Grand, USGS
Max Post van der Burg, Auburn University
Alabama Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
2. A short history …
LMV JV - Bottomland hardwood restoration
Objective: birds, single habitat, simple landscape
EGCP JV - Longleaf Pine Restoration
Objective: birds, single habitat, complex landscape
AC JV - Designing Sustainable Landscapes
Objective: birds, Multiple habitats, dynamic landscape
Landscape stressors – climate change, urbanization
Optimal Conservation Strategies
Multiple objectives
Multiple resources
Dynamic landscapes
3. Southeast Regional Assessment Project
(SERAP)
1. Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate change projections
2. Regional coastal sea level rise on the Mississippi and Alabama
coasts
3. Climate change and its impacts on bird habitats
4. Designing sustainable landscapes: climate and land use change
projected impacts on priorities species habitats
5. Patch and range dynamics of North American avian species in
response to land use patterns and climatic change
6. Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects
on biological resources: Aquatic and hydrologic dynamics
7. Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate
change
4. Relationship to SA LCC
The purpose of this project is to develop a
framework to help guide strategic decisions for
conservation delivery across the South Atlantic
Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SA LCC).
Strategic decisions as those that maximize the LCC
partners’ ability to meet large-scale objectives for
complex systems.
Strategies are collections (portfolios) of decisions by
SA LCC partners to implement conservation actions.
5. Objectives
Based on input from SA LCC:
1. Identify focal species
2. Assess the state of focal species
3. Determine population and habitat objectives
4. Develop habitat relationship models
5. Predict the effects of management on focal species
6. Objectives
6. Determine optimal conservation strategies
Where conservation is needed
What actions should work best
When action should be taken
7. Identify key elements for monitoring
Learn more about direction and effects of climate
Measure progress towards objectives
7. Our conceptual model
Conservation
Objectives
Aquatic Avian
Species Species
Response Response
…is this really the problem?
Freshwater Terrestrial Coastal
Habitats Habitats Habitats
Phenology Hydrology Land Cover Sea Level
Rise
Private Lands Climate Change Urban Growth Public Lands
Habitat Conservation Strategies
Enlarge Existing
Span Gradients
Facilitate Movements
Connect Existing
Do Nothing
8. Stakeholder involvement
National Park Service
U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
Environmental Protection Agency
Environmental Defense Fund
U.S. Forest Service
Georgia Department of Natural Resources
The Nature Conservancy
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
9. Eliciting concerns
What's important Parking Lot
Synergistic Impacts
Maintain all Wildlife Unknown-unknowns
Conserve cultural Socioeconomics Natural Areas
resources Human health
Maint. Aquatic spp.
Maint. Terr. spp.
Protect
Protect
Archeological
Maint. & Cons. Historic Sites
Sites
Productive
Habitat
Water Quality Water Quantity Beach Erosion Air Quality
Scale
Soil Erosion Fire Prevention
Runoff
Education Communication
Tools
Monitoring Maps of priority areas
How we get there. Website
TACCIMO
*** This is the beginning of structuring objectives based on one webinar. This is
simply an example of the first step in defining objectives.
11. Stakeholder involvement
Maintain Wildlife Populations Socioeconomics
Conserve cultural resources Natural Areas
Maintain Terrestrial Spp. Protect Archaeological Sites
Maintain Aquatic Spp. Air Quality Protect Historical Sites
Water Quantity Soil erosion Beach Erosion
Habitat Runoff Water Quality Fire
Tools Maps of priority areas
Monitoring Education
*** This is the beginning of structuring objectives based on one webinar. This is
simply an example of the first step in defining objectives.
12. Why should we do this?
Complicated problems…
Ends and means can become confused
Ends determine how we measure success
Think about conserving habitat…
Do we measure success in terms of acres or populations?
Means set the stage for strategies
Which strategies should we choose to meet our ends
Requires predictions of consequences
13. Optimal strategies
Define the conservation objectives
Identify and model the strategies
Collections of actions & policies
Predict and compare the consequences of each
strategy
Incorporating – climate change, urbanization
Determine optimal strategies
Greatest likelihood of meeting all objectives
Value of strategy ~ rewards * uncertainty * risk
cost
Incorporate tradeoffs
14. How do we predict consequences?
Southeast Resource Assessment Project
Downscaled climate projections
Sea level rise
Assessment of terrestrial & aquatic habitats & affects on
priority species
But for other objectives…
Expert opinion
Applied research
Surrogates
15. Adaptation working groups
LCC Leadership identifies membership
Decision makers Land managers
Taxa experts SERAP PIs
Working groups
Prototype decision (prioritization) models
Assist with data development
Iteratively review and refine tools
Reports recommendations to LCC technical
committees & leadership
16. What do we need?
Working group
Refine objectives
Structure decision (prioritization) models
Identify data needs & priorities
Iteratively review and refine tools
Establish tradeoffs
LCC Leadership identifies membership
Decision makers Land managers
Resource experts SERAP PIs
17. How do we do this?
Multi-day meetings & workshops
2-4 in April - June 2011
Report of workshops in September 2011
Prototype model January 2012
18. What are the products?
Comparison of strategies
Ordered list of places, actions, and times for actions
GIS depictions of same
Mechanism for adapting to change