Erin Sills​ (North Carolina State University - CIFOR​) at "GFOI 2023 Plenary: Myths, realities, and solutions towards high-integrity forest carbon credits" on 9-11 May 2023

1. Methods comparison
and challenges for
accounting systems
Erin Sills
North Carolina State University
Center for International Forestry Research

2. monitor forest change and associated emissions
measure of what happens with REDD+
Methods comparison
Accounting/ MRV
• Compares this measure
to an ex ante forecast of
forest change under
BAU (“baseline”)
Causal impact evaluation
• Compares this measure
to ex post observation of
forest change in
comparable areas under
BAU (“counterfactual”)
REDD+
Area

3. Methods comparison
Accounting/ MRV
• Ex ante forecast
establishes a
performance benchmark
• Carbon credits are
generated when
emissions are below the
benchmark
Causal impact evaluation
• Ex post observation
establishes what would
have happened given
other policy and
economic conditions
• Feedback to investors
and policy-makers

4. Challenges for accounting system
Accounting/ MRV
• Ex ante forecast
Causal impact evaluation
• Ex post observation
X

5. Challenges for accounting system
Accounting/ MRV
• Ex ante forecast
Causal impact evaluation
• Ex post observation
X

6. Challenges for accounting system
Accounting/ MRV
• Ex ante forecast
• Carbon credits
Causal impact evaluation
• Ex post observation
• Feedback

7. THINKING beyond the canopy
REDD+ area
(Intervention)
Before After
Forest change
After
Forest change
Before
CREDIT

8. THINKING beyond the canopy
Comparison
(Control)
REDD+ area
(Intervention)
Before After
Forest change
After
Forest change
After
Forest change
Before
Forest change
Before

9. THINKING beyond the canopy
Comparison
(Control)
REDD+ area
(Intervention)
Before After
IMPACT (BACI)
Forest change
After
Forest change
After
Forest change
Before
Forest change
Before

10. CIFOR Global Comparative Study
• Six countries, 23 sites, 150 villages (matched on drivers of forest change)
• BACI: 2010-2011 / 2013-2014

11. • Based on Hansen Global
Forest Change data
• Performance looks better
when
• Measured at village level
• Based on comparison to
controls
• Careful selection of
control areas reveals the
impact of REDD+
Bos et al. 2017 ERL
CIFOR Global Comparative Study

12. THINKING beyond the canopy
Comparison
(Control)
REDD+ area
(Intervention)
Before After
IMPACT (BACI)
Forest change
After
Forest change
After
Forest change
Before
Forest change
Before
1) Matching underlying drivers of forest change
2) Synthetic control: weighted combination that
matches underlying drivers of forest change
and trajectory of forest change

13. Thank you.
sills@ncsu.edu