AWS User Group Padova event. Which AWS services there are for forecasting scenarious ? https://www.meetup.com/it-IT/aws-user-group-padova/events/298480058/

1. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Qual è il miglior algoritmo
di ML per le mie
predizioni di business ?

2. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Alessandra Bilardi
Data & Automation Specialist
alessandra.bilardi@corley.it
corley.it

3. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
SUMMARY
Keywords
AWS Services
Comparison

4. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Keywords

5. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
What is the forecasting ?

6. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
The importance of the forecasting
1
2 Supply chain planning
3
Resource planning
4 Operational planning
Retail demand planning

7. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Time Series data
● Target Time Series (TTS)
○ timestamp
○ item_id (articolo, SKU)
○ [ dimensione per cliente ]
○ target_value (valore)
○ [ Festività, Meteo ]
● Related Time Series (RTS)
○ timestamp
○ item_id (articolo, SKU)
○ [ dimensione per cliente ]
○ holiday (valore 0 oppure 1)
○ maximum [ Meteo, Stock, .. ]

8. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Categorical data
● Anagrafica articolo
○ item_id (articolo, SKU)
○ category (caratteri o numeri)
○ [ fino a 10 colonne totali ]
● Geolocalizzazione
○ distribuzione per
■ articolo
■ articolo / cliente
○ da cosa si può partire
■ CAP
■ Nazione [ Festività ]
■ longitudine [ Meteo ]
■ latitudine [ Meteo ]
Distribution
Nominal or Ordinal Categorical Variables

9. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Which data can we use to do forecasting ?
1
2 related timeseries (RTS)
3
categorical data (IM)
4 geolocalization (GEO)
target timeseries (TTS)

10. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Example ● target timeseries (TTS)
● related timeseries (RTS)
● categorical data (IM)
● geolocalization (GEO)
reference

11. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Example ● target timeseries (TTS)
● related timeseries (RTS)
● categorical data (IM)
● geolocalization (GEO)
reference

12. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Example ● target timeseries (TTS)
● related timeseries (RTS)
● categorical data (IM)
● geolocalization (GEO)
reference

13. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Example ● target timeseries (TTS)
● related timeseries (RTS)
● categorical data (IM)
● geolocalization (GEO)
reference

14. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
AWS Services

15. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
AWS Services
reference

16. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
AWS Services
reference

17. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
AWS Services
reference

18. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
AWS Services
reference

19. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
AWS Services
reference

20. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
AWS Services

21. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
AWS Services

22. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
AWS Services
Business

23. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
AWS Services
Business
Operator

24. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
AWS Services
Business
Operator
Data Scientist

25. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Evaluation
reference

26. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Evaluation

27. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Evaluation

28. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Evaluation metrics
Metrics Description Notes Limits
MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error ok < 50%; good <
20%; very good < 10%
for dataset without 0
MASE Mean Absolute Scaled Error training / testing values
comparison
it is unique for each
dataset
RMSE Root Mean Square Error RMSE / actual
average value < 10%
it is most sensitive to
outliers

29. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Comparison

30. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Comparison of AWS services for the forecasting
Services Difficulty Execution times Costs RMSE
SM Canvas 🏖🏖🏖 10 mins $ 2.02 280
Forecast 🏖📚🔧 20 mins + 48 mins $ 11.28 57
SM JumpStart 🤓🔧🔧 5 mins + 28 mins $ 0.41 265
SM Built-in algos 🤓🔧🔧 3 mins + 10 mins $ 0.22 251

31. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
265

32. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
280 265

33. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
280 265
251

34. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
280
57
265
251

35. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Thanks
for listening!

36. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Amazon Forecast

37. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Amazon Forecast

38. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Features - forecasting

39. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Features - scenarios
what-if analysis,
‘scenarios’

40. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Features - explainability impact scores

41. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Pricing
$ 2 per 1000
$ 2 per 1000

42. Forecasting in AWS - AWS User Group Padova - 2024-02-01
Workflow