Presented by Sven Wunder (European Forest Institute (EFI) and CIFOR-ICRAF Senior Associate) at "Bonn Climate Change Conference (SB58) side event: High-integrity forest carbon markets: from global stock-taking to advancing science" on 8 Jun 2023

1. Effectiveness of REDD+:
meta-study results
Sven Wunder
European Forest Institute (EFI)
CIFOR Senior Associate
SBSTA, Bonn, 8 June 2023

2. REDD+ map vs. study sample: projects and jurisdictions
=> Overlapping subnational, regional and national REDD+
=> variable implementation & research densities across tropics

3. Results,
forests:
REDD+ small and
variable, but
significant forest
cover impacts
0.08 [0.04; 0.11]

4. Results,
welfare:
REDD+ small
positive outcomes
(income, assets,
consumption); self-
perceptions mixed
0.06 [-0.01; 0.14]

5. Moderation analysis
Effect size
boosters:
1. High pre-threat (at
lower scales)
2. Spatial targeting
3. Benefit
differentiation
(welfare effects)

6. Conservation impacts: REDD+ compared
REDD+ performs as least
as ‘well’ (or as poorly…)
as other conservation
tools
…but little analysis of
cost effectiveness

7. REDD+ credit
additionality:
Project impacts
vs. its baselines
Tan ania 9 Tan ania 9
eru eru 9 eru 95 Tan ania 5
59 eru eru eru
olombia 95 olombia 9 olombia olombia 5
ambodia 5 ambodia 9 olombia 9 olombia 9
9 9
9 9 9 9
9 9 9 9
9 9 9 9
9 9 9 9
5
5
5
5
e
5e
e 5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
e
5e
e 5
ear
umulative
deforestation
(ha)
……… De facto observed deforestation
_____ Ex-ante deforestation baselines
_____ Deforestation synthetic control sites
West et al. (2023), Science (resubmitted)
=> Much of REDD+
credit non-performance
(West et al.: 90+%) is
due to project ‘hockey
stick’ ex-ante baselines

8. Five take-away messages
1. REDD+ is to carbon, what ICDP has been to biodiversity: a heterogenous
mix of on-the-ground interventions. JA-REDD+ will not change that part
(complex policy mixes); we still need to disentangle to learn!
2. Forest impacts are: statistically significant, modestly sized – as are other
conservation tools. True also for small 1st generation of JA-REDD+.
3. REDD+, incl. JA, could have more impact if action spatially targeted high-
threat, forest carbon-dense areas.
4. For carbon credit integrity, REDD+ impact performance also needs to be
paired with realistic ex-ante baselines.
5. For current JA-REDD+, worrying how little accompanying research/
impact evaluation is being done: what policies change? what impact?

9. Thank you!
Acknowledged contributors:
Dario Schulz, Javier Montoya-Zumaeta,
Jan Börner, Gabriel Frey, Thales West