De EU-top heeft het groene licht gegeven voor een voortzetting van economische sancties tegen Rusland vanwege de crisis in Oekraïne. De staatshoofden en regeringsleiders hadden de vraag "verenigd" beslist, zei EU-voorzitter Donald Tusk donderdagavond in de dienst voor korte berichten op Twitter. Volgens diplomaten blijven de strafmaatregelen nog zes maanden geldig tot eind juli volgend jaar. Moskou had eerder de hoop uitgesproken dat de EU en Rusland zouden kunnen praten over het terugdringen van sancties.
Except for the statements of historical fact contained herein, the information presented constitutes "forward-looking statements" within
the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements, including but not
limited, to those with respect to the price of silver, lead and zinc, the possibility, timing and amount of estimated future production, costs
of production, and reserve determination and reserve conversion rates, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other
factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievement of Silvercorp Metals Inc. (“Silvercorp” or the “Company”) to be
materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such
factors include, among others, risks related to international operations, risks related to Chinese government issuance of mining and
related development permits, risks related to joint venture operations, the actual results of current exploration activities, conclusions of
economic evaluations, changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, commodity price fluctuations especially in prices
of silver, lead and zinc, as well as other factors. Readers should review the Company’s most recent Form 40-F for a more complete
discussion of these factors and other risks, particularly under the heading “Risk Factors”.
This Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) is intended to help the reader understand the significant
factors that have affected Silvercorp Metals Inc. and its subsidiaries’ (“Silvercorp” or the “Company”) performance
and such factors that may affect its future performance. This MD&A should be read in conjunction with the
Company’s audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended March 31, 2019 and the related notes
contained therein. The Company reports its financial position, results of operations and cash flow in accordance
with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board
(“IASB”
Chris Helweg
Chris Helweg
World Silver Survey 2019
This is the twenty-ninth annual edition of the World Silver Survey produced for The Silver Institute. The World
Silver Survey 2019 was produced by the GFMS team of metals market analysts at Definitive. The information
contained herein is based in part on the analysis of publicly available data such as hallmarking series, trade
statistics, company reports and other public-domain information. More importantly, it is also based on a large
series of interviews with the industry’s main players, carried out over the year by the team. This work generates
the essential data to allow the compilation of reliable estimates for world supply and demand and inform the
analysis of market structures, and the degree of significance of any changes and developments.
Details behind the flooding in year 2012 iin the province of GroningenChris Helweg
In early January 2012, heavy storms and rainfall caused widespread flooding across northwestern Europe. Two storms, Cyclone Ulli and Cyclone Andrea, brought intense winds over 9 on the Beaufort scale and more than 20 millimeters of rain to parts of the Netherlands. The high waters overwhelmed drainage systems and threatened dikes. Authorities took precautionary measures like closing storm surge barriers, constructing emergency dikes, and evacuating over 800 residents from the municipality of Ten Boer due to a dike breach. The flooding caused an estimated 10 million euros in damage.
Chris Helweg, Vlagtwedde, De groeiende rol van mineralen voor een koolstofarm...Chris Helweg
Chris Helweg, Vlagtwedde, Groningen.
De groeiende rol van mineralen voor een koolstofarme toekomst
World Bank
grondstoffen vragen prognoses tot 2050 de wereldbevolking zal tegen 2050 naar verwachting meer dan 9 miljard bereiken, duurzame ontwikkeling, met inbegrip van koolstofarme ontwikkelingsstrategieën, hernieuwbare energie en veerkrachtige steden en landschappen
commodities demand projections up to 2050
global human population expected to reach over 9 billion by 2050,
sustainable development, including low carbon development strategies, renewable energy, and resilient cities and landscape
Silver in medicine – past, present and future Chris Helweg
Silver has a long history in medicine dating back to ancient Greece. It was used for wound care and limiting infection. In the modern era, silver sutures and eyedrops were introduced. Silver sulfadiazine became a widely used treatment for burns. Recent research focuses on silver's antimicrobial properties and developing new applications like electrically-activated silver implants and combining silver with antibiotics. These innovations have potential to improve patient outcomes and combat antibiotic resistance.
Except for the statements of historical fact contained herein, the information presented constitutes "forward-looking statements" within
the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements, including but not
limited, to those with respect to the price of silver, lead and zinc, the possibility, timing and amount of estimated future production, costs
of production, and reserve determination and reserve conversion rates, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other
factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievement of Silvercorp Metals Inc. (“Silvercorp” or the “Company”) to be
materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such
factors include, among others, risks related to international operations, risks related to Chinese government issuance of mining and
related development permits, risks related to joint venture operations, the actual results of current exploration activities, conclusions of
economic evaluations, changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, commodity price fluctuations especially in prices
of silver, lead and zinc, as well as other factors. Readers should review the Company’s most recent Form 40-F for a more complete
discussion of these factors and other risks, particularly under the heading “Risk Factors”.
This Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) is intended to help the reader understand the significant
factors that have affected Silvercorp Metals Inc. and its subsidiaries’ (“Silvercorp” or the “Company”) performance
and such factors that may affect its future performance. This MD&A should be read in conjunction with the
Company’s audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended March 31, 2019 and the related notes
contained therein. The Company reports its financial position, results of operations and cash flow in accordance
with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board
(“IASB”
Chris Helweg
Chris Helweg
World Silver Survey 2019
This is the twenty-ninth annual edition of the World Silver Survey produced for The Silver Institute. The World
Silver Survey 2019 was produced by the GFMS team of metals market analysts at Definitive. The information
contained herein is based in part on the analysis of publicly available data such as hallmarking series, trade
statistics, company reports and other public-domain information. More importantly, it is also based on a large
series of interviews with the industry’s main players, carried out over the year by the team. This work generates
the essential data to allow the compilation of reliable estimates for world supply and demand and inform the
analysis of market structures, and the degree of significance of any changes and developments.
Details behind the flooding in year 2012 iin the province of GroningenChris Helweg
In early January 2012, heavy storms and rainfall caused widespread flooding across northwestern Europe. Two storms, Cyclone Ulli and Cyclone Andrea, brought intense winds over 9 on the Beaufort scale and more than 20 millimeters of rain to parts of the Netherlands. The high waters overwhelmed drainage systems and threatened dikes. Authorities took precautionary measures like closing storm surge barriers, constructing emergency dikes, and evacuating over 800 residents from the municipality of Ten Boer due to a dike breach. The flooding caused an estimated 10 million euros in damage.
Chris Helweg, Vlagtwedde, De groeiende rol van mineralen voor een koolstofarm...Chris Helweg
Chris Helweg, Vlagtwedde, Groningen.
De groeiende rol van mineralen voor een koolstofarme toekomst
World Bank
grondstoffen vragen prognoses tot 2050 de wereldbevolking zal tegen 2050 naar verwachting meer dan 9 miljard bereiken, duurzame ontwikkeling, met inbegrip van koolstofarme ontwikkelingsstrategieën, hernieuwbare energie en veerkrachtige steden en landschappen
commodities demand projections up to 2050
global human population expected to reach over 9 billion by 2050,
sustainable development, including low carbon development strategies, renewable energy, and resilient cities and landscape
Silver in medicine – past, present and future Chris Helweg
Silver has a long history in medicine dating back to ancient Greece. It was used for wound care and limiting infection. In the modern era, silver sutures and eyedrops were introduced. Silver sulfadiazine became a widely used treatment for burns. Recent research focuses on silver's antimicrobial properties and developing new applications like electrically-activated silver implants and combining silver with antibiotics. These innovations have potential to improve patient outcomes and combat antibiotic resistance.
Een inzicht in de Amerikaanse streven naar wereldheerschappij, Chris Helweg
By Chris Helweg,
Een inzicht in de Amerikaanse streven naar wereldheerschapij, wat zijn de doelen, wie zijn de spelers, wanneer is dit begonnen, wat is bereikt, hoe gevaarlijk is Een korte blik voor geïnteresseerde mensen, wat een echt beleid is dat de VS de afgelopen 25 jaar heeft geregeerd. Ik ben niet echt een goede schrijver of vertaler, maar dit is vrij eenvoudig te controleren, oprechte feedback is welkom. Op mijn LinkedIn-pagina kun je de afgelopen jaren over mijn doel lezen. Waakzaamheid blijft noodzakelijk, ik hoop dit beleid transparant te maken door middel van deze publicaties. Want kijk eens naar het nieuwe budget van Donald's Trump met deze kennis in gedachten? Wat dan?
An insight in the us strategy for global dominationChris Helweg
An insight in the US strategy for global domination. The Project for the New American Century
PNAC goals of the neocons
Eliot Abrams
John Bolton
The Project for the New American Century
Essential social, medical, educational and retirement services have to be gutted so that those funds can be directed towards a military buildup
the WTO and the IMF will dictate financial terms to the entire planet.
Trumps new Budget.
Een inzicht in de US wereldwijde strijd voor dominantieChris Helweg
Een inzicht in de Amerikaanse streven naar wereldheerschapij, wat zijn de doelen, wie zijn de spelers, wanneer is dit begonnen, wat is bereikt, hoe gevaarlijk is dit, en werkt Donald Trump hier ook aan mee?
An insight in the us strategy for global dominationChris Helweg
The document discusses the Project for the New American Century (PNAC), a neoconservative think tank that sought to promote American global dominance. It outlines PNAC's goals of maintaining permanent military presences around the world and increasing defense spending. Key members of PNAC, like Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, went on to hold high-level positions in the George W. Bush administration. The ultimate goal of PNAC, according to the document, was to transform America into a global empire enforced through military might, starting with regime change in Iraq.
Chris Helweg:
Last year, for the fifth year in a row, the silver market
recorded another deficit; this time of 26.0 Moz (810 t).
Mine supply fell for the second consecutive year by 4%
in 2017, following 13 consecutive annual increases prior
to 2016. This was a result of years of Capex reductions
in combination with supply disruptions, particularly in
the Americas. With scrap supply contracting by 1% in
combination with net-hedging of 1.4 Moz (44 t), total silver
supply fell by 2% to just under one billion ounces.
World Gold Council
Gold Outlook 2018: Watch the Fed, Debt and Geopolitics
Analysts share their thoughts on the gold outlook for 2018. Most agree that it will take a sharp shock to the market to move the price significantly higher.
Fight over arctic region ( images & bad dutch translation) Chris HelwegChris Helweg
Chris Helweg
The proportions of the Arctic mineral reserves are by all means impressive. The region estimatedly contains 25% of the world’s hydrocarbons, mostly in the form of natural gas. Russia’s portion of the Arctic is known to hold at least 560 billion barrels of crude which is 2.5 the total in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the lures of the Arctic region include deposits of diamonds, gold, platinum, manganese, nickel, titanium, coal, etc. which are mostly found on the territory of Russia. Importantly, the Northern maritime route is the avenue opening access to all of the above.
De verhoudingen van de Arctic minerale reserves zijn oké indrukwekkend. Het gebied bevat estimatedly 25% van's werelds koolwaterstoffen, meestal in de vorm van aardgas. Ruslands gedeelte van het Noordpoolgebied is bekend dat het houden van minstens 560 miljard vaten ruwe olie die 2.5 is het totaal in Saoedi-Arabië. Bovendien omvatten de kunstaas van het Noordpoolgebied afzettingen van diamanten, goud, platina, mangaan, nikkel, titaan, kolen, enz., die meestal te op het grondgebied van Rusland vinden zijn. Nog belangrijker is, is de noordelijke maritieme route de laan die toegang tot al het bovenstaande te openen.
VANCOUVER, Feb. 8, 2018 /PRNewswire/ - Silvercorp Metals Inc. ("Silvercorp" or the "Company") (SVM.TO) (NYSE American: SVM) reported its financial and operating results for the third quarter ended December 31, 2017. All amounts are expressed in US Dollars.
Silvercorp Metals Inc. Corporate Presentation Jan 2018Chris Helweg
- Silvercorp is a Canadian mining company and China's premier silver producer. It has over 15 years of remaining mine life at its flagship Ying Mining District in China.
- The presentation provides financial and production figures for fiscal 2017, as well as guidance for fiscal 2018, showing steady production and profitability.
- Charts compare Silvercorp favorably to peers on metrics such as costs, profitability, and cash flow. The presentation demonstrates Silvercorp's consistent operating performance.
Vista gold announces updated mt todd preliminary feasibility study showing st...Chris Helweg
Vista Gold Announces Updated Mt Todd Preliminary Feasibility Study Showing Strong Returns At US$1300 Gold Price
Vista Gold Corp. ("Vista" or the "Company") (NYSE American and TSX: VGZ) today announced the positive results of an updated preliminary feasibility study (the "PFS") for its Mt Todd gold project ("Mt Todd" or the "Project") in Northern Territory, Australia. The PFS is based on the results of a comprehensive review of all aspects of the Project and the re-design of elements of the process flow sheet, incorporating automated sorting and grinding circuit design changes in a 50,000 tonne per day ("tpd") project. The process improvement efforts have resulted in reduced operating costs, increased gold recovery and higher gold production at Mt Todd. Management of Vista believes that the design changes have allowed Vista to achieve a significant improvement in the Project's economics at the current gold price. The PFS was authored by Tetra Tech Inc. with Mine Development Associates, Resource Development Inc., Proteus EPCM Engineers (a Tetra Tech Company), and POWER Engineers, Inc. Unless otherwise specified, all $ amounts in this press release are expressed in US$.
The 99-page FISA court opinion
a previously unreported and heavily redacted 99-page FISA court opinion from April, 2017, which "describes systematic and on-going violations of the law [by the FBI and their contractors using unauthorized disclosures of raw intelligence on Americans]. This is stunning stuff."
Wiens heldere idee was RussiaGate? Russiagate is gemaakt door CIA-directeur John Brennan. De CIA is begonnen met wat Russiagate wordt genoemd om te voorkomen dat Trump relaties met Rusland kan normaliseren. De CIA en het militaire / veiligheidscomplex hebben een vijand nodig om hun enorme budgetten en onverklaarbare macht te rechtvaardigen. Rusland heeft die rol gekregen. De Democraten deden mee als een manier om Trump aan te vallen. Ze hoopten dat hij zou bezoedelen als hij samenwerkt met Rusland om de presidentsverkiezingen van Hillary te stelen en hem te laten afzetten. Ik denk niet dat de Democraten de consequenties hebben overwogen van een verdere verslechtering van de betrekkingen tussen de VS en Rusland.
Special Report: In the Watergate era, liberals warned about U.S. intelligence agencies manipulating U.S. politics, but now Trump-hatred has blinded many of them to this danger becoming real, as ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern notes. Russia-gate is becoming FBI-gate, thanks to the official release of unguarded text messages between loose-lipped FBI counterintelligence official Peter Strzok and his garrulous girlfriend, FBI lawyer Lisa Page. (Ten illustrative texts from their exchange appear at the end of this article.)
De hand van de FBI achter de Russiaphobia in de VSChris Helweg
De hand van de FBI achter de Russiaphobia in de VS.
Helaas is het nog geen perfecte vertaling, maar de context geeft een duidelijk inzicht in de gang van zaken die zich binnen de Amerikaanse inlichtingsdiensten afspeelt.
Speciaal rapport: In het Watergate-tijdperk waarschuwden liberalen dat Amerikaanse inlichtingendiensten de Amerikaanse politiek manipuleren, maar nu heeft Trump-haat velen van hen verblind voor dit gevaar dat echt wordt, zoals ex-CIA-analist Ray McGovern opmerkte.
Base metals prices & investing-opportunitiesChris Helweg
Table of Contents
Copper Trends 2017: Prices Up on Strong Demand and Short Supply
Copper Outlook 2018
Copper Forecast 2018: CEOs Bullish on Market .
Zinc Trends 2017: Prices at Decade High After Supply Crunch
Zinc Outlook 2018: Will Prices Continue to Rally?
Zinc Forecast 2018
Nickel Trends 2017: Deficit Expected on Supply Challenges.
Nickel Outlook 2018
Iron Outlook 2018
Lead Outlook 2018: Supply Tightness to Continue
Inhoudsopgave
Coppertrends 2017: stijging sterke vraag en korte levering
Copper vooruitzicht 2018
Voorspelling Copper 2018: CEO's Bullish on Market.
Zink Trends 2017: prijzen bij Decade High After Supply Crunch
Zinc vooruitzicht 2018: blijven prijzen stijgen?
Zinkvoorspelling 2018
Nikkeltrends 2017
Nickel vooruitzicht 2018
IJzer vooruitzicht 2018
Lood vooruitzicht 2018
Een inzicht in de Amerikaanse streven naar wereldheerschappij, Chris Helweg
By Chris Helweg,
Een inzicht in de Amerikaanse streven naar wereldheerschapij, wat zijn de doelen, wie zijn de spelers, wanneer is dit begonnen, wat is bereikt, hoe gevaarlijk is Een korte blik voor geïnteresseerde mensen, wat een echt beleid is dat de VS de afgelopen 25 jaar heeft geregeerd. Ik ben niet echt een goede schrijver of vertaler, maar dit is vrij eenvoudig te controleren, oprechte feedback is welkom. Op mijn LinkedIn-pagina kun je de afgelopen jaren over mijn doel lezen. Waakzaamheid blijft noodzakelijk, ik hoop dit beleid transparant te maken door middel van deze publicaties. Want kijk eens naar het nieuwe budget van Donald's Trump met deze kennis in gedachten? Wat dan?
An insight in the us strategy for global dominationChris Helweg
An insight in the US strategy for global domination. The Project for the New American Century
PNAC goals of the neocons
Eliot Abrams
John Bolton
The Project for the New American Century
Essential social, medical, educational and retirement services have to be gutted so that those funds can be directed towards a military buildup
the WTO and the IMF will dictate financial terms to the entire planet.
Trumps new Budget.
Een inzicht in de US wereldwijde strijd voor dominantieChris Helweg
Een inzicht in de Amerikaanse streven naar wereldheerschapij, wat zijn de doelen, wie zijn de spelers, wanneer is dit begonnen, wat is bereikt, hoe gevaarlijk is dit, en werkt Donald Trump hier ook aan mee?
An insight in the us strategy for global dominationChris Helweg
The document discusses the Project for the New American Century (PNAC), a neoconservative think tank that sought to promote American global dominance. It outlines PNAC's goals of maintaining permanent military presences around the world and increasing defense spending. Key members of PNAC, like Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, went on to hold high-level positions in the George W. Bush administration. The ultimate goal of PNAC, according to the document, was to transform America into a global empire enforced through military might, starting with regime change in Iraq.
Chris Helweg:
Last year, for the fifth year in a row, the silver market
recorded another deficit; this time of 26.0 Moz (810 t).
Mine supply fell for the second consecutive year by 4%
in 2017, following 13 consecutive annual increases prior
to 2016. This was a result of years of Capex reductions
in combination with supply disruptions, particularly in
the Americas. With scrap supply contracting by 1% in
combination with net-hedging of 1.4 Moz (44 t), total silver
supply fell by 2% to just under one billion ounces.
World Gold Council
Gold Outlook 2018: Watch the Fed, Debt and Geopolitics
Analysts share their thoughts on the gold outlook for 2018. Most agree that it will take a sharp shock to the market to move the price significantly higher.
Fight over arctic region ( images & bad dutch translation) Chris HelwegChris Helweg
Chris Helweg
The proportions of the Arctic mineral reserves are by all means impressive. The region estimatedly contains 25% of the world’s hydrocarbons, mostly in the form of natural gas. Russia’s portion of the Arctic is known to hold at least 560 billion barrels of crude which is 2.5 the total in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the lures of the Arctic region include deposits of diamonds, gold, platinum, manganese, nickel, titanium, coal, etc. which are mostly found on the territory of Russia. Importantly, the Northern maritime route is the avenue opening access to all of the above.
De verhoudingen van de Arctic minerale reserves zijn oké indrukwekkend. Het gebied bevat estimatedly 25% van's werelds koolwaterstoffen, meestal in de vorm van aardgas. Ruslands gedeelte van het Noordpoolgebied is bekend dat het houden van minstens 560 miljard vaten ruwe olie die 2.5 is het totaal in Saoedi-Arabië. Bovendien omvatten de kunstaas van het Noordpoolgebied afzettingen van diamanten, goud, platina, mangaan, nikkel, titaan, kolen, enz., die meestal te op het grondgebied van Rusland vinden zijn. Nog belangrijker is, is de noordelijke maritieme route de laan die toegang tot al het bovenstaande te openen.
VANCOUVER, Feb. 8, 2018 /PRNewswire/ - Silvercorp Metals Inc. ("Silvercorp" or the "Company") (SVM.TO) (NYSE American: SVM) reported its financial and operating results for the third quarter ended December 31, 2017. All amounts are expressed in US Dollars.
Silvercorp Metals Inc. Corporate Presentation Jan 2018Chris Helweg
- Silvercorp is a Canadian mining company and China's premier silver producer. It has over 15 years of remaining mine life at its flagship Ying Mining District in China.
- The presentation provides financial and production figures for fiscal 2017, as well as guidance for fiscal 2018, showing steady production and profitability.
- Charts compare Silvercorp favorably to peers on metrics such as costs, profitability, and cash flow. The presentation demonstrates Silvercorp's consistent operating performance.
Vista gold announces updated mt todd preliminary feasibility study showing st...Chris Helweg
Vista Gold Announces Updated Mt Todd Preliminary Feasibility Study Showing Strong Returns At US$1300 Gold Price
Vista Gold Corp. ("Vista" or the "Company") (NYSE American and TSX: VGZ) today announced the positive results of an updated preliminary feasibility study (the "PFS") for its Mt Todd gold project ("Mt Todd" or the "Project") in Northern Territory, Australia. The PFS is based on the results of a comprehensive review of all aspects of the Project and the re-design of elements of the process flow sheet, incorporating automated sorting and grinding circuit design changes in a 50,000 tonne per day ("tpd") project. The process improvement efforts have resulted in reduced operating costs, increased gold recovery and higher gold production at Mt Todd. Management of Vista believes that the design changes have allowed Vista to achieve a significant improvement in the Project's economics at the current gold price. The PFS was authored by Tetra Tech Inc. with Mine Development Associates, Resource Development Inc., Proteus EPCM Engineers (a Tetra Tech Company), and POWER Engineers, Inc. Unless otherwise specified, all $ amounts in this press release are expressed in US$.
The 99-page FISA court opinion
a previously unreported and heavily redacted 99-page FISA court opinion from April, 2017, which "describes systematic and on-going violations of the law [by the FBI and their contractors using unauthorized disclosures of raw intelligence on Americans]. This is stunning stuff."
Wiens heldere idee was RussiaGate? Russiagate is gemaakt door CIA-directeur John Brennan. De CIA is begonnen met wat Russiagate wordt genoemd om te voorkomen dat Trump relaties met Rusland kan normaliseren. De CIA en het militaire / veiligheidscomplex hebben een vijand nodig om hun enorme budgetten en onverklaarbare macht te rechtvaardigen. Rusland heeft die rol gekregen. De Democraten deden mee als een manier om Trump aan te vallen. Ze hoopten dat hij zou bezoedelen als hij samenwerkt met Rusland om de presidentsverkiezingen van Hillary te stelen en hem te laten afzetten. Ik denk niet dat de Democraten de consequenties hebben overwogen van een verdere verslechtering van de betrekkingen tussen de VS en Rusland.
Special Report: In the Watergate era, liberals warned about U.S. intelligence agencies manipulating U.S. politics, but now Trump-hatred has blinded many of them to this danger becoming real, as ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern notes. Russia-gate is becoming FBI-gate, thanks to the official release of unguarded text messages between loose-lipped FBI counterintelligence official Peter Strzok and his garrulous girlfriend, FBI lawyer Lisa Page. (Ten illustrative texts from their exchange appear at the end of this article.)
De hand van de FBI achter de Russiaphobia in de VSChris Helweg
De hand van de FBI achter de Russiaphobia in de VS.
Helaas is het nog geen perfecte vertaling, maar de context geeft een duidelijk inzicht in de gang van zaken die zich binnen de Amerikaanse inlichtingsdiensten afspeelt.
Speciaal rapport: In het Watergate-tijdperk waarschuwden liberalen dat Amerikaanse inlichtingendiensten de Amerikaanse politiek manipuleren, maar nu heeft Trump-haat velen van hen verblind voor dit gevaar dat echt wordt, zoals ex-CIA-analist Ray McGovern opmerkte.
Base metals prices & investing-opportunitiesChris Helweg
Table of Contents
Copper Trends 2017: Prices Up on Strong Demand and Short Supply
Copper Outlook 2018
Copper Forecast 2018: CEOs Bullish on Market .
Zinc Trends 2017: Prices at Decade High After Supply Crunch
Zinc Outlook 2018: Will Prices Continue to Rally?
Zinc Forecast 2018
Nickel Trends 2017: Deficit Expected on Supply Challenges.
Nickel Outlook 2018
Iron Outlook 2018
Lead Outlook 2018: Supply Tightness to Continue
Inhoudsopgave
Coppertrends 2017: stijging sterke vraag en korte levering
Copper vooruitzicht 2018
Voorspelling Copper 2018: CEO's Bullish on Market.
Zink Trends 2017: prijzen bij Decade High After Supply Crunch
Zinc vooruitzicht 2018: blijven prijzen stijgen?
Zinkvoorspelling 2018
Nikkeltrends 2017
Nickel vooruitzicht 2018
IJzer vooruitzicht 2018
Lood vooruitzicht 2018
1. 1
Deutsche Wirtschafts
Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 14.12
.17 23:13 Uhr
H T T P S : / / D EU T SC H E- W IR TSC H AF T S - N AC H RIC H T E N .D E/ 2 0 1 7/ 1 2 / 14 / R US SL AN D -
S A N K T I ON E N - T RE F F E N - DE UT SC H L AN D - ST AE RK E R- AL S- DI E -W E ST L IC H EN -
G R O S S M AEC H T E /
GEOPOLITIK
Russland-Sanktionen
treffen Deutschland
stärker als die
westlichen
Großmächte
Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 14.12.17
23:13 Uhr
Eine Studie des IfW zeigt: Deutschlands
Exportehaben durch die Russland-Sanktionen
massivSchaden genommen.Die USA,
Großbritannienund Frankreichsind dagegen
nur unwesentlich betroffen.
2. 2
Der Präsident von Zypern, Nicos Anastasiades (erste Reihe, l), der französische
Präsident Emmanuel Macron (erste Reihe, 2.v.l) und Bundeskanzlerin Angela
Merkel am 14.12..2017 in Brüssel beim EU-Gipfel. (Foto: dpa)
3. 3
Veränderung der Exporte nach Russland im Vergleich zu einem Szenario ohne
Sanktionen für ausgewählte Länder. (Grafik: IfW)
Der EU-Gipfel hat grünes Licht für eine Verlängerung der Wirtschaftssanktionen
gegen Russland wegen der Ukraine-Krise gegeben. Die Staats- und Regierungschefs
hätten die Frage „geeint“ entschieden, teilte EU-Ratspräsident Donald Tusk am
Donnerstagabend im Kurznachrichtendienst Twitter mit. Diplomaten zufolge sollen
die Strafmaßnahmen weitere sechs Monate bis Ende Juli kommenden Jahres in
Kraft bleiben. Moskau hatte zuvor die Hoffnung geäußert, dass die EU und Russland
über einen Abbau der Sanktionen ins Gespräch kommen könnten.
Das Institut für die Weltwirtschaft Kiel hat zu diesem Thema eine
interessante Studie veröffentlicht, die zeigt: Deutsche Unternehmen sind von den
Sanktionen wesentlich stärker betroffen als die anderen westlichen Großmächte
USA, Großbritannien und Frankreich. Die Studie zeigt, dass es bei den negativen
Folgen vor allem um die eingeschränkten Möglichkeiten der Finanzierung von
Exporten geht. Außerdem stellt die Studie fest, dass die Einbrüche bei den Exporten
nicht auf anderen Märkten wettgemacht werden konnten. Russland trägt der Studie
zufolge 60 Prozent der Lasten, die sanktionierenden Staaten 40 Prozent. Von diesen
40 Prozent entfallen 90 Prozent auf die EU-Staaten.
Die Schlussfolgerungen des IfW zu den Sanktionen:
4. 4
Handels- und Finanzsanktionen sind ein häufig verwendetes Instrument der
Außenpolitik. Sie sollen der Wirtschaft des Ziellandes durch Barrieren im Waren-,
Kapital- und Personenverkehr schaden, um damit politischen Druck auszuüben. In
ihrer modernen Form („Smart Sanctions“) versprechen sie eine maßgeschneiderte
Maßnahme mit der Möglichkeit der Feinabstimmung und einer schnellen Rückkehr
zum normalen Zustand.
Während die Erfolgsbilanz von Sanktionen hinsichtlich der politischen Ziele unklar
ist (Drezner 2011), haben sie jedoch für private Akteure in den sanktionierenden
Ländern einen Preis, der oft übersehen wird (z.B. Hufbauer et al. 2009). Durch die
Beschränkung grenzüberschreitender Transaktionen schaden sie inländischen
Unternehmen, die im Zielland tätig sind, was derzeit in Bezug auf das
Sanktionsregime gegenüber der Russischen Föderation von besonderem Interesse
ist.
In einer aktuellen Studie von Crozet und Hinz (2016) untersuchen wir die
Auswirkungen auf die Exporte der Russischen Föderation und aller großen
Volkswirtschaften, unabhängig davon, ob sie sich an den Sanktionen beteiligen oder
nicht. Darüber hinaus identifizieren wir am Beispiel französischer Unternehmen die
Mechanismen, die dem Gesamteffekt auf einzelwirtschaftlicher Ebene zu Grunde
liegen.
Sanktionen gegen Russland und die russische Reaktion
Nach der russischen Beteiligung an separatistischen Bewegungen in der Ostukraine
und der Annexion der Krim verhängten 37 Länder, darunter alle EU-Mitgliedsländer
und die Vereinigten Staaten, ab März 2014 Sanktionen gegen die Russische
Föderation.
Diese wurden im Frühsommer 2014 weiter verschärft. Im Juli verhängten die EU
und andere Länder, vor allem als Reaktion auf den Abschuss eines Zivilflugzeugs in
der Ostukraine, strikte Finanzsanktionen gegen eine Reihe russischer Finanzinstitute
und Industriekonzerne.
Russland reagierte daraufhin mit einem Embargo für bestimmte Lebensmittel und
Agrarerzeugnisse aus sanktionierenden Ländern. Durch die Intensität der
wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen vor den Sanktionen und die große Zahl der beteiligten
Länder, die rund 55 Prozent der Weltproduktion ausmachen, ist diese Episode
beispiellos und besonders instruktiv.
5. 5
Globale Auswirkungen von Sanktionen und Gegenmaßnahmen
Um die Auswirkungen der Sanktionen auf den Handel abzuschätzen, wird eine
kontrafaktische Situation ohne Sanktionen in einem strukturellen
Gravitationsmodell simuliert. Die Intuition ist, Handelsströme ohne Sanktionen
vorherzusagen und diese mit den unter Sanktionen beobachteten Werten zu
vergleichen.
Unser Modell berücksichtigt bei der Prognose der bilateralen Ströme in einer
hypothetischen Welt ohne Sanktionen Veränderungen der russischen
Importkapazität, etwa aufgrund des Zusammenbruchs der Ölpreise und der
Abwertung des Rubels. Als Datenbasis für die Schätzung und Simulation benutzen
wir monatliche bilaterale Daten von UN COMTRADE.
Die Gesamtkosten der Russlandsanktionen, gemessen als entgangener Handel,
beziffern wir auf 114 Mrd. US-Dollar vom Beginn des Konflikts bis Ende 2015, wobei
rund 70 Mrd. US-Dollar oder 61 Prozent des gesamten Exportverlustes auf die
Russische Föderation entfielen. Der Exportverlust für sanktionierende westliche
Länder beläuft sich auf rund 44 Mrd. US-Dollar, dies entspricht rund 0,4 Prozent der
Exporte dieser Länder und etwa 0,1 Prozent ihres Bruttoinlandsprodukts.
Wichtig ist hierbei, dass Handelsverluste bei Produkten, die unter das russische
Embargo fallen, mit gut 10 Mrd. US-Dollar nur einen kleinen Teil des
Gesamtverlustes ausmachen. Der größte Teil des Effektes auf die westlichen Exporte
ist also „Friendly Fire“, d. h. eine Folge der westlichen Maßnahmen.
Dieses Ergebnis hat direkte Auswirkungen auf die politische Debatte in den
sanktionierenden Ländern. Häufig beziehen sich Argumente gegen bestimmte
Sanktionsmaßnahmen nur auf mögliche Vergeltungsmaßnahmen oder die Reduktion
von Importen.
Stattdessen zeigt sich, dass – zumindest im Falle der Russlandsanktionen – die
Sanktionen und der diplomatische Konflikt als solcher vor allem Verluste beim
Export verursacht haben, die nicht Folge von Vergeltungsmaßnahmen, sondern der
Politik der westlichen Länder sind.
Die Europäische Union trägt 90 Prozent des gesamten entgangenen Handels der
sanktionierenden Länder und 93 Prozent des entgangenen Handels mit Produkten,
die nicht unter das russische Embargo fallen.
6. 6
Die Auswirkungen sind jedoch nicht gleichmäßig auf die Länder verteilt (Abbildung
K1-1). Gemessen am jeweiligen Handelsvolumen mit Russland fällt der
Handelsverlust in Norwegen und Australien am stärksten aus, wobei der realisierte
Export bis zu 39 Prozent unter dem geschätzten Export nach Russland liegt.
Im Vergleich zu den Gesamtausfuhren sind jedoch Finnland (Handelsverlust von 1,7
Prozent), Polen (0,9 Prozent) und Deutschland (0,8 Prozent) am stärksten betroffen.
Die deutschen Exporte sind im Durchschnitt um rund 727 Mio. Dollar pro Monat
niedriger als bei dem kontrafaktischen Szenario ohne Sanktionen, wobei der
entgangene Handel hauptsächlich auf Produktgruppen entfällt, die nicht dem
Embargo unterliegen. Der deutsche Anteil am gesamten entgangenen Handel der
sanktionierenden Länder beträgt somit fast 40 Prozent, während andere große
geopolitische Akteure wie das Vereinigte Königreich (7,9 Prozent), Frankreich (4,1
Prozent) und die Vereinigten Staaten (0,6 Prozent) weitaus weniger betroffen sind.
Einzelne Länder wie Litauen und Estland haben von den Sanktionen offenbar sogar
profitiert. Zudem war Japan von dem als Vergeltungsmaßnahme ausgesprochenen
Importverbot für bestimmte Güter nicht betroffen (obwohl sich das Land an den
westlichen Sanktionen beteiligt hatte) und exportierte deutlich mehr dieser Waren
nach Russland als vor dem Embargo, wenngleich der Zuwachs absolut gesehen
gering war und die Exportverluste beiallen anderen Gütergruppen keinesfalls
wettmachen konnte.
Warum sind Produkte betroffen, die nicht dem Embargo unterliegen? Um die
Mechanismen auf Unternehmensebene zu verstehen, werden die Auswirkungen des
Sanktionsregimes anhand detaillierter monatlicher Zolldaten französischer
Unternehmen analysiert.
Es zeigt sich, dass mit der Einführung der Sanktionen ein deutlicher Rückgang der
Zahl der auf dem russischen Markt tätigen Unternehmen sowie des nach Russland
exportierten Wertes der verbliebenen Unternehmen zu verzeichnen ist. Neben dem
Gesamteffekt stellt sich die Frage nach den Mechanismen, die hinter dem starken
Rückgang der Exporte von Produkten stehen, die nicht vom Embargo betroffen sind.
Es bieten sich vor allem zwei Erklärungsansätze für das Entstehen des „Friendly
Fire“ an: Eine Änderung der Einstellung der russischen Verbraucher zu
französischen Produkten und eine plötzliche Zunahme des Länderrisikos, bedingt
7. 7
durch politische, rechtliche und finanzielle Instabilität, die durch die Sanktionen,
aber auch durch den Konflikt selbst hervorgerufen wird. Eine mögliche Verschiebung
von Verbraucherpräferenzen kann – im Gegensatz zu aktueller Forschung zu
Konsumtenboykotten (Heilmann 2016) – den Rückgang der Exporte französischer
Produkte in die Russische Föderation in diesem Fall nicht erklären. Produkte, die
durch das Branding als „französisch“ identifiziert werden können, waren nicht
anders betroffen als andere vergleichbare Güter. Stattdessen sind Produkte
besonders stark betroffen, die Handelsfinanzierungsinstrumente intensiv nutzen.
Die Literatur zur Handelsfinanzierung zeigt, dass bestimmte Warengruppen in der
Handelsstatistik Handelsfinanzierungsinstrumente besonders stark in Anspruch
nehmen, und dass dies insbesondere für außergewöhnlich große Sendungen gilt
(Niepmann et al. 2015 und Demir et al. 2014).
Es zeigt sich, dass die Exportströme von Produkten, die mit „Letter of Credit“-
Finanzierungen finanziert werden, eine wesentlich stärkere Wirkung der Sanktionen
erfahren haben als andere Produkte. Maßgeblich dürfte hierfür gewesen sein, dass
die finanziellen Beziehungen zwischen der Russischen Föderation und den
sanktionierenden Ländern durch westliche Finanzsanktionen teilweise erheblich
eingeschränkt wurden, so dass die betroffenen Finanzinstitute nicht mehr in der
Lage waren, attraktive Handelsfinanzierungsdienstleistungen anzubieten.
Kaum Handelsumlenkung
Schließlich lässt sich zeigen, dass die französischen Exporteure, die direkt oder
indirekt von den Sanktionsmaßnahmen betroffen waren, ihre Verluste insbesondere
kurzfristig nicht durch die Umleitung ihrer Auslandsverkäufe an andere
Bestimmungsorte, kompensieren konnten.
Im Gegensatz zu anderen Studien, die zum Teil finden, dass Unternehmen in
sanktionierten Volkswirtschaften ihre Umsätze massiv auf andere Märkte umleiten
(Haidar 2014), stellen wir fest, dass nur ein Bruchteil der Verluste auf diese Weise
wettgemacht wird.
Unternehmen, die direkt dem russischen Embargo ausgesetzt sind, exportierten
durchschnittlich 24 Prozent weniger als vergleichbare Unternehmen, fast genau so
viel wie ihr durchschnittlicher Anteil am russischen Markt an ihren Gesamtexporten
(26 Prozent) vor den Sanktionen. Unternehmen, die zuvor auf dem russischen Markt
aktiv waren, aber keine Embargoprodukte exportierten, verzeichneten einen
8. 8
Rückgang ihrer Gesamtexporterlöse um 12 Prozent. Ihre jeweiligen
Gesamtausfuhrmengen gingen weniger stark zurück, was auf niedrigere
Verkaufspreise für die Exporte schließen lässt, die tatsächlich auf andere Märkte
umgeleitet werden konnten.
9. 9
Russia sanctions
make Germany more
than the Western
great powers
German economic news | Published: 14.12.17 23:13 clock
A study of the IfW: Germany's exports by
Russia sanctions massivelydamagetook. The
United States, Britain and France are, however,
only marginallyaffected.
10. 10
The Summit has given the green light for an extension of the economic sanctions
against Russia over the Ukraine crisis. The heads of State and Government had
decided the question of 'unity', EU Council President Donald Tusk announced on
Thursday evening in the short message service Twitter. Diplomats according the
sanctions of another six months until the end of July next year should remain in
force. Moscow had previously the expressed hopes that the EU and Russia could
come about a removal of sanctions in the interview.
The Institute for the world economy in Kiel has published an interesting study on
this subject shows: German companies are from sanctions much more affected than
the other major Western powers United States, United Kingdom and France. The
study shows that deals with the negative consequences especially the restricted
possibilities of financing of exports. In addition, the study notes that the decline in
exports toother markets could be made up. Russia contributes 60 percent of the
loads, the sanctioning States according to the study, 40 percent. Of that 40% EU
States accounted for 90 percent.
The conclusions of the IfW the sanctions:
Trade and financial sanctions are a commonly used instrument of foreign policy. You
should harm the economy of the target country by barriers in the goods, capital and
persons, to exert political pressure. In its modern form ("smart sanctions") they
promise a tailor-made measure with the possibility of fine tuning and a rapid return
to the normal state.
While the track record of sanctions with regard to the policy objectives is unclear
(Drezner 2011), they have a price that is often overlooked but for private actors in the
sanctioning countries (E.g. HUF Bauer et al. 2009). By restricting cross-border
transactions, they harm domestic companies that are working in the target country,
what is currently on the sanctions regime against the Russian Federation of
particular interest.
In a recent study by Crozet and Hinz (2016) we study the impact on the exports of
the Russian Federation and of all major economies, regardless of whether they
participate in the sanctions or not. In addition, we identify the mechanisms that are
the overall effect on single economic level based on the example of French
companies.
Sanctions against Russia and the Russian reaction
11. 11
After the Russian involvement in separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine and the
annexation of the Crimea, 37 countries, including all EU member countries and the
United States, from March 2014 imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation.
These were further aggravating 2014 in early summer. The EU and other countries,
especially in response to the shooting down of a civilian aircraft in Eastern Ukraine,
strict financial sanctions against a number of Russian financial institutions and
industrial groups imposed in July.
Russia then reacted with an embargo on certain foods and agricultural products from
sanctioning countries. Due to the intensity of economic relations before the sanctions
and the large number of countries involved, which make up about 55 percent of the
world production, this episode is unprecedented and particularly instructive.
Global impact of sanctions and countermeasures
Toassess the effect of the sanctions on trade, a counterfactual situation without
sanctions in a structural model of gravity is simulated. The intuition is that trade
sanctions to predict and compare with the values observed under sanctions without.
Our model takes into account changes of Russian import capacity, as a result of the
collapse of oil prices and the devaluation of the ruble in the prognosis of bilateral
flows in a hypothetical world without sanctions. As a data base for the estimation and
simulation, we use monthly bilateral data from UN COMTRADE.
We put the total cost of Russia sanctions, measured as loss trading, until the end of
2015, with approximately $ 70 billion or 61 percent of the total export loss accounted
for the Russian Federation to $ 114 billion from the beginning of the conflict. The
export loss of sanctioning Western countries amounted to about $ 44 billion, which
corresponds to around 0.4 percent of the exports of these countries and about 0.1
percent of its gross domestic product.
This, it is important that trading losses make up only a small part of the total loss for
products that fall under the Russian embargo, with good 10 billion US dollars. The
largest part of the effect on Western exports is "Friendly fire", that is a consequence
of the Western measures.
12. 12
This result has a direct impact on the political debate in the sanctioning countries.
Common arguments against certain sanctions only apply to possible retaliation or
the reduction of imports.
Instead shows that - at least in the case of Russia sanctions - sanctions and
diplomatic conflict as such have caused especially losses export, which are not a
consequence of retaliation, but the policy of the Western countries.
The European Union has 90 percent of lost trade of the sanctioning countries and 93
percent of lost trade in products which do not fall under the Russian embargo.
The effects are however not evenly distributed to the countries (figure K1-1).
Measured at the respective trade volume with Russia the trading loss in Norway and
Australia fails most where the realized export is up to 39 percent below the estimated
export to Russia.
In comparison to the total exports but are Finland (trade loss of 1.7 percent), Poland
(0.9 percent) and Germany (0.8 percent) most affected.
German exports are lower than in the counterfactual scenario without sanctions,
where the lost trade is accounted for mainly product groups, the embargoed in an
average of about $727 million per month. The German share of the entire
sanctioning countries lost trade is almost 40 percent, while other major geopolitical
actors such as the United Kingdom (7.9 percent), France (4.1%) and the United
States (0.6 percent) more There are less affected.
Individual countries such as Lithuania and Estonia have apparently even benefited
from the sanctions. Also Japan of the import ban on certain goods mentioned in
retaliation was not affected (although the country had a participant in the Western
sanctions) and significantly more exported those goods to Russia than before the
embargo, although the Increase in absolute terms was low and the export losses in all
other groups of goods could not compensate.
Why are products the concerned the embargoed? Tounderstand the mechanisms at
the enterprise level, analyzes the impact of the sanctions regime on the basis of more
detailed monthly customs data on French companies.
13. 13
It shows that a significant decline in the number of companies operating on the
Russian market, as well as the value of the remaining companies exported toRussia
is increasing with the introduction of the sanctions. In addition to the overall effect,
the question arises according to the mechanisms behind the sharp decline in the
exports of products that are not affected by the embargo.
Are offered two explanations for the emergence of the "friendly fire": legal and
financial due to a change of in attitude of the Russian consumers of French products
and a sudden increase of in country risk, political, Instability caused by the sanctions,
but also by the conflict itself. A possible shift of consumer preferences - in contrast of
to current research on Konsumtenboykotten (Heilmann 2016) - can't explain the
decline in the exports of French products in the Russian Federation in this case.
Products that can be identified by the branding as "French" were otherwise affected
as other comparable goods. Instead, products are particularly affected, who
intensively use trade financing instruments.
The literature on trade finance indicates that certain groups of goods in trade
statistics trade financing instruments particularly take advantage of, and that this
applies in particular to exceptionally large shipments (Niepmann et al. 2015 and
Demir et al.) 2014).
It is evident that the export flows of products, which are financed with "Letter of
Credit" Finance, have experienced a much stronger effect of sanctions than other
products. Probably for this decisive, that the financial relations between the Russian
Federation and the sanctioning countries were partly significantly restricted by
Western financial sanctions, so that the affected financial institutions no longer in
were able to offer attractive trade financing services.
Hardly any trade diversion
Finally, it can be shown that the French exporters that were affected directly or
indirectly by the sanctions, compensated for their losses by diverting the its foreign
sales to other destinations, especially in the short term not.
In contrast to other studies, which find in part, that businesses in sanctioned
economies massively redirect their sales on other markets (Haidar 2014), we
determine that only a fraction of the losses in this way will be compensated.
14. 14
Companies that directly exposed to the Russian embargo, exported less than
comparable companies 24 percent on average, almost as much as their average share
of the Russian market of their total exports (26 percent) from the sanctions.
Companies that previously were active on the Russian market, but exporting no
embargo products, recorded a decline in its overall export earnings by 12 percent.
Their respective total export volume declined less, which suggests lower selling
prices for exports, which could actually be redirected to other markets.