On 13 August, 2014 in a tragic event a private plane carrying one of the Brazilian presidential candidates crashed, killing all of those on board. As a result, a popular politician who was blocked from running for President due to missing a few signatures on her application form and instead became a VP candidate, stepped into the void as a new national Presidential candidate and has transformed the election dynamics and polls.
For more information connect with MSLGROUP's Latin America contact: Josh Shapiro josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com or share your feedback with us on twitter @msl_group
Understanding Brazil's 2014 Presidential Election: The Parties Candidates and...MSL
The present political situation in Brazil is unpredictable. While it is difficult to forecast a possible winner for the Presidential election, there is consensus that regardless of who wins, there will be no drastic changes in Brazil's international relations.
President Dilma Rousseff's Workers’ Party (PT) will face tough competition from the opposition’s Aécio Neves representing the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and Eduardo Campos of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB). Experts believe that the election is expected to go to a second round between President Rousseff and Neves.
Our report details nine key issues to understand & monitor in this Brazilian elections:
• The Brazilian economy
• Family Benefit
• World Cup
• Lula Factor
• Public Demonstrations
• Free Party Political Broadcast
• Monthly Payment Scandal
• Debates &
• Party Alliances
Brazil’s unfinished business - A view on the presidential electionsBrunswick Group
No sooner has hosting the World Cup ended than Brazil is in the throes of a new competition: a presidential election. And it’s proving to be as full as surprises - and as unpredictable - as the tourney that saw the home favorite routed in an unprecedented 7 to 1 defeat in the semi-finals to eventual winner Germany.
http://www.brunswickgroup.com/publications/reports/
Understanding Brazil's 2014 Presidential Election: The Parties Candidates and...MSL
The present political situation in Brazil is unpredictable. While it is difficult to forecast a possible winner for the Presidential election, there is consensus that regardless of who wins, there will be no drastic changes in Brazil's international relations.
President Dilma Rousseff's Workers’ Party (PT) will face tough competition from the opposition’s Aécio Neves representing the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and Eduardo Campos of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB). Experts believe that the election is expected to go to a second round between President Rousseff and Neves.
Our report details nine key issues to understand & monitor in this Brazilian elections:
• The Brazilian economy
• Family Benefit
• World Cup
• Lula Factor
• Public Demonstrations
• Free Party Political Broadcast
• Monthly Payment Scandal
• Debates &
• Party Alliances
Brazil’s unfinished business - A view on the presidential electionsBrunswick Group
No sooner has hosting the World Cup ended than Brazil is in the throes of a new competition: a presidential election. And it’s proving to be as full as surprises - and as unpredictable - as the tourney that saw the home favorite routed in an unprecedented 7 to 1 defeat in the semi-finals to eventual winner Germany.
http://www.brunswickgroup.com/publications/reports/
A Look at Veteran Unemployment in Five States, the Services Offered and Curre...Thomas Thorpe
This was my research/policy paper that I had written for my Political Science class. It will compare 5 states in how they are handling this issue and it will provide for my personal opinion on ways to change the future so that this is no longer an issue.
COVID19 presentation of data and analysis by Radius Energy Solutions. We plot regional, country and state trends as well as model the US States using Mortality Rate as the variable.
The putrefaction of the michel temer government and of the political institut...Fernando Alcoforado
The Datafolha Research demonstrates, above all, the putrefaction of political and juridical institutions of Brazil that can only be resolved by convening a new Constituent Assembly to carry out the political, of State and of Public Administration reform aimed at reordering the national life. Indirect elections with a demoralized National Congress as current and direct elections with a National Congress and demoralized political parties like the present ones will not solve the problems of Brazil.
Brazil 2015: A Perfect Storm Derails President Rousseff's AgendaMSL
After only three months in office, President Dilma Rousseff’s approval rating fell from 46% in October to just 12% at the end of March, according to national polls conducted by Ibope. The reasons for the decrease are due to a so-called “perfect storm” – a combination of an economic crisis and political mistakes that fueled the mobilization of various sectors of society in large demonstrations in the main cities of Brazil, demanding anti-corruption measures and impeachment of the President.
In this report, we analyze the factors that led to this situation and share an outlook for 2015. For more information connect with MSLGROUP's Latin America contact: Josh Shapiro josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com or share your feedback with us on twitter @msl_group.
A organização Repórteres sem Fronteiras publicou, em 24 de janeiro de 2013, um relatório intitulado “Brasil, o país dos trinta Berlusconi”, que aborda os importantes desequilíbrios e obstáculos que caracterizam o horizonte midiático do gigante sul-americano. O documento se baseia em uma investigação realizada em três etapas – Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo e Brasília – no decorrer de novembro de 2012.
Brazilis New DirectionWendy HunterJournal of Democracy.docxAASTHA76
Brazilis New Direction
Wendy Hunter
Journal of Democracy, Volume 14, Number 2, April 2003, pp. 151-162
(Article)
Published by The Johns Hopkins University Press
DOI: 10.1353/jod.2003.0034
For additional information about this article
Access provided by Florida International University (24 Feb 2014 10:41 GMT)
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v014/14.2hunter.html
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v014/14.2hunter.html
BRAZIL’S NEW DIRECTION
Wendy Hunter
On 27 October 2002, the voters of Brazil chose Luiz Inácio Lula da
Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) to be their next president, giving him
a wide margin of victory with 61.3 percent in a two-candidate runoff
against José Serra of the Social Democratic Party (PDSB). Does the
election—on his fourth try—of this lathe operator turned trade union
leader and the ascendance of his leftist party signal a historic shift in
Brazilian politics? What are the implications of a Lula presidency for
democracy in Brazil, and what is the larger situation of that democracy
now?
Should 2002 be seen as marking a new era in Brazilian politics? Is it
the start of a period in which a programmatic leftist party that has cham-
pioned popular participation, accountability, and redistributive change
supplants the political clientelism, social elitism, and technocratic policy
making for which Brazil is known? Or is it wiser to focus on the prag-
matic adjustments that the PT has made, the continuing sway of
conservative forces, and the multitude of constraints—political and eco-
nomic, domestic and international—that will hem in efforts to make
major changes?
On the one hand, the election of a candidate who is a true outsider is
a dramatic break with the pattern of Brazilian politics since the
postauthoritarian period began in 1985. President José Sarney (1985–
90), who inaugurated the civilian regime, had been a leading member of
the official government party under the military regime that ruled from
1964 to 1985. His successor, the disgraced Fernando Collor de Mello
(1990–92), had similar political origins. After serving as an opposition
Wendy Hunter is associate professor of government at the University
of Texas–Austin. Her current research investigates the effects of
democratization, economic globalization, and international diffusion
on decisions that affect social policy and human capital formation in
Latin America.
Journal of Democracy Volume 14, Number 2 April 2003
Latin America’s Lost Illusions
Journal of Democracy152
Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) senator during the military
period, Fernando Henrique Cardoso played a leading role in brokering
Brazil’s transition to democracy, forging an array of compromises with
outgoing actors and solidifying his establishment credentials, albeit as
a moderate social democrat affiliated initially with the PMDB and then
the PDSB.
Sarney, Collor, and Cardoso all came from elite backgrounds in a
soci ...
Nos Estados Unidos, a denúncia sobre a farsa do impeachment de Dilma Rousseff, encampada por grandes jornais como o The New York Times, ganha força agora entre parlamentares norte-americanos. Em carta a John Kerry, 33 parlamentares pedem ao secretário de Estado que se abstenha de declarações favoráveis ao golpista Michel Temer (PMDB); "Nosso governo deve expressar sua forte preocupação com as circunstâncias que envolvem o processo de impeachment e exigir a proteção da Constituição democrática no Brasil", afirmam os signatários do documento
A Look at Veteran Unemployment in Five States, the Services Offered and Curre...Thomas Thorpe
This was my research/policy paper that I had written for my Political Science class. It will compare 5 states in how they are handling this issue and it will provide for my personal opinion on ways to change the future so that this is no longer an issue.
COVID19 presentation of data and analysis by Radius Energy Solutions. We plot regional, country and state trends as well as model the US States using Mortality Rate as the variable.
The putrefaction of the michel temer government and of the political institut...Fernando Alcoforado
The Datafolha Research demonstrates, above all, the putrefaction of political and juridical institutions of Brazil that can only be resolved by convening a new Constituent Assembly to carry out the political, of State and of Public Administration reform aimed at reordering the national life. Indirect elections with a demoralized National Congress as current and direct elections with a National Congress and demoralized political parties like the present ones will not solve the problems of Brazil.
Brazil 2015: A Perfect Storm Derails President Rousseff's AgendaMSL
After only three months in office, President Dilma Rousseff’s approval rating fell from 46% in October to just 12% at the end of March, according to national polls conducted by Ibope. The reasons for the decrease are due to a so-called “perfect storm” – a combination of an economic crisis and political mistakes that fueled the mobilization of various sectors of society in large demonstrations in the main cities of Brazil, demanding anti-corruption measures and impeachment of the President.
In this report, we analyze the factors that led to this situation and share an outlook for 2015. For more information connect with MSLGROUP's Latin America contact: Josh Shapiro josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com or share your feedback with us on twitter @msl_group.
A organização Repórteres sem Fronteiras publicou, em 24 de janeiro de 2013, um relatório intitulado “Brasil, o país dos trinta Berlusconi”, que aborda os importantes desequilíbrios e obstáculos que caracterizam o horizonte midiático do gigante sul-americano. O documento se baseia em uma investigação realizada em três etapas – Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo e Brasília – no decorrer de novembro de 2012.
Brazilis New DirectionWendy HunterJournal of Democracy.docxAASTHA76
Brazilis New Direction
Wendy Hunter
Journal of Democracy, Volume 14, Number 2, April 2003, pp. 151-162
(Article)
Published by The Johns Hopkins University Press
DOI: 10.1353/jod.2003.0034
For additional information about this article
Access provided by Florida International University (24 Feb 2014 10:41 GMT)
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v014/14.2hunter.html
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v014/14.2hunter.html
BRAZIL’S NEW DIRECTION
Wendy Hunter
On 27 October 2002, the voters of Brazil chose Luiz Inácio Lula da
Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) to be their next president, giving him
a wide margin of victory with 61.3 percent in a two-candidate runoff
against José Serra of the Social Democratic Party (PDSB). Does the
election—on his fourth try—of this lathe operator turned trade union
leader and the ascendance of his leftist party signal a historic shift in
Brazilian politics? What are the implications of a Lula presidency for
democracy in Brazil, and what is the larger situation of that democracy
now?
Should 2002 be seen as marking a new era in Brazilian politics? Is it
the start of a period in which a programmatic leftist party that has cham-
pioned popular participation, accountability, and redistributive change
supplants the political clientelism, social elitism, and technocratic policy
making for which Brazil is known? Or is it wiser to focus on the prag-
matic adjustments that the PT has made, the continuing sway of
conservative forces, and the multitude of constraints—political and eco-
nomic, domestic and international—that will hem in efforts to make
major changes?
On the one hand, the election of a candidate who is a true outsider is
a dramatic break with the pattern of Brazilian politics since the
postauthoritarian period began in 1985. President José Sarney (1985–
90), who inaugurated the civilian regime, had been a leading member of
the official government party under the military regime that ruled from
1964 to 1985. His successor, the disgraced Fernando Collor de Mello
(1990–92), had similar political origins. After serving as an opposition
Wendy Hunter is associate professor of government at the University
of Texas–Austin. Her current research investigates the effects of
democratization, economic globalization, and international diffusion
on decisions that affect social policy and human capital formation in
Latin America.
Journal of Democracy Volume 14, Number 2 April 2003
Latin America’s Lost Illusions
Journal of Democracy152
Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) senator during the military
period, Fernando Henrique Cardoso played a leading role in brokering
Brazil’s transition to democracy, forging an array of compromises with
outgoing actors and solidifying his establishment credentials, albeit as
a moderate social democrat affiliated initially with the PMDB and then
the PDSB.
Sarney, Collor, and Cardoso all came from elite backgrounds in a
soci ...
Nos Estados Unidos, a denúncia sobre a farsa do impeachment de Dilma Rousseff, encampada por grandes jornais como o The New York Times, ganha força agora entre parlamentares norte-americanos. Em carta a John Kerry, 33 parlamentares pedem ao secretário de Estado que se abstenha de declarações favoráveis ao golpista Michel Temer (PMDB); "Nosso governo deve expressar sua forte preocupação com as circunstâncias que envolvem o processo de impeachment e exigir a proteção da Constituição democrática no Brasil", afirmam os signatários do documento
Carta de políticos americanos para secretário de Estado dos EUADilmaRousseff
Congressistas pedem que representante americano demonstre preocupação com o processo de impeachment e apoio à retomada da democracia. Leia mais: https://goo.gl/sLgvgh
The Newsletter of June has as focus the October elections, and brings an analysis of Henrique Meirelles as a possible next president of Brazil. Furthermore, we highlight themes related to female candidature, new rules for electoral ads on internet and the electoral race in 5 Brazilian state. Lastly, we approach also the political stalemate in the National Congress to approve the Legal Landmark of Personal Data.
In order to provide a further discussion tool, the Public Affairs team wishes a great reading!
Just as the removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency of Republicl and Lula arrest for corruption may increase political violence in Brazil, the same can happen with the permanence of Dilma Rousseff in power. In other words, either with dismissal or stay in power Dilma Rousseff, Brazil may be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences. To prevent Brazil to be brought to social upheaval would require the establishment of a provisional government composed of respectable public figures uncompromised of political forces in confrontation that would have the mandate to convene a new constituent assembly to reorganize the national life, seek consensus country in the solution of economic and social crisis, prevent the escalation of violence in Brazil and hold new general elections in the country. This would be the way to avoid a fratricidal struggle or a civil war in Brazil. If not is formed a provisional government composed of respectable public figures uncompromised of political forces in confrontation able to order the national life, there will only be one outcome to the institutional impasse in which lives the Brazilian nation that is the intervention of the armed forces for the maintenance of constitutional order.
This month’s coverage of the Americas includes a fully revised report on Argentina, where the end of 12 years of continuous
rule by the Kirchner dynasty appears to signal a retreat from the heterodox populism that characterized the policy approach
of Nestor Kirchner and Christina Fernandez. The pro-government FPV lost its majority in the lower house of Congress, and its presidential candidate
Thanks to the political irresponsibility of the PT and its allies in defending the corrupt Lula are contributing to the ascent of the egg of the fascist serpent in Brazil. By acting in this way, the PT and its allies lack the necessary intelligence to realize that the correlation of forces is entirely unfavorable to their pretensions. Insisting on the confrontation with the great majority of Brazilian society means plunging the Country into civil war whose consequences are unpredictable. In addition to having allied themselves with right-wing parties and politicians to govern, the PT and its allies are now contributing to the rise of the extreme right to power either in the 2018 presidential election or through a coup d'état if political radicalization reaches uncontrollable levels.
Analysis of what is happening in Brazil as the 2016 summer Olympic Games approach
As Brazil prepares to host the summer Olympic Games next month, the country faces a vexing question: Which of its two Presidents will open and close the games? Could one open and the other close?
If uncertainty were an Olympic sport, Brazil would be a top contender for the gold medal. It’s not just facing the usual host city questions, such as will the installations and infrastructure be ready, can Rio ensure the security of tourists who will throng the city and how will all this be financed? It’s also facing health challenges such as the Zika virus. Above all, Brazil is confronting an existential question: When will it emerge from its deep political and economic crisis?
For further information please contact Thomas Kamm or our São Paulo office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/são-paulo/
Ähnlich wie An Update on the Brazil Election - September 2014 (20)
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A look inside the endless debate between traditional and digital media.
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In a 6-3 decision in the case Murphy vs. National Collegiate Athletic Association, SCOTUS ruled that because Congress exceeded its constitutional authority when it passed PAPSA. In essence, Congress tried to prohibit state legislatures from repealing their existing statues that outlawed sports betting. Under a line of Supreme Court precedent known as the anti-commandeering doctrine, federal efforts to coerce states into enforcing federal law are unconstitutional violations of the Tenth Amendment.
To say this is just the beginning would be cliché, but what SCOTUS has wrought with its decision will have lasting consequences that go far beyond sports betting.
Our current consumption patterns are stretched to breaking point. Few would argue the need to fix our systems. It’s how to manage an economically viable and just transition that is making heads ache.
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Is your business goal-ready to move beyond 2020? Explore a new generation of emerging sustainability goals that are unlocking business returns and driving transformational change.
The food market will experience rapid evolution in 2018, according to sector experts at MSL. A broad array of technological innovations will make it easier to acquire and consume foods and beverages tailored to our specific food needs, speeds and philosophies.
These insights emerge from the MSL’s annual analysis of top food trends compiled by its highly specialized food marketing and PR team, appearing as a shareable infographic. In recent years the agency’s forecast has been viewed more than 100,000 times. Past forecasts have spotted the emergence of major marketplace successes, including turmeric, coconut, ugly produce, food waste reduction and coffee as an ingredient.
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It’s been two years since the launch of the SDGs and the UN’s recent progress report highlights that support is uneven and needs to accelerate. New data sources, including
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SDG Signals uncovers new insights about SDG communications online and which areas, people and brands are cutting through. We explore the overall SDG online conversation, providing clear opportunities for differentiation, with initial comparisons from the Technology and Food & Beverage sectors. Future editions will put the spotlight on other specific sectors and issue areas.
A joint initiative conducted by MSL and SPARK Neuro gives PR pros true cause for excitement. What was once only subjective – how much people are engaged with content and their emotional experience with it – can now be directly quantified by reading brain activity and other neurological responses.
For more information about Conversation2Commerce, email Erin.Lanuti@mslgroup.com or visit www.publicisC2C.com.
In PR2020, experts give us their perspective on what’s coming next in terms of tech disruptions, and how they believe this will impact the work we do. We explore influence, data, human science and machines, and our relation to them as communications professionals, business owners, governments, and human beings.
Write to us to start a conversation on how we can help you distill actionable insights and foresights from conversations and communities.
For more information contact Pascal Beucler, SVP & Chief Strategy Officer, Global, MSL (pascal.beucler@mslgroup.com) and Melanie Joe, Consultant – Research & Insights, MSL (melanie.joe@mslgroup.com)
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Is your business up to speed on the risks and opportunities of human rights issues?
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To supplement Qorvis MSLGROUP's Guide to the Trump Administration, we have created a set of appendencies highlighting expected cabinet and staff appointments as of 12/1/2016.
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For more updates, follow @qorvis or reach out to us on Twitter @msl_group.
Each year, Directions takes an in-depth look at an area of sustainability and communications. This time, we’re delving into the quite sizeable gap that still exists between business and society. It’s not the void that interests us so much as the question of how it can be shrunk.
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Building Your Employer Brand with Social MediaLuanWise
Presented at The Global HR Summit, 6th June 2024
In this keynote, Luan Wise will provide invaluable insights to elevate your employer brand on social media platforms including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok. You'll learn how compelling content can authentically showcase your company culture, values, and employee experiences to support your talent acquisition and retention objectives. Additionally, you'll understand the power of employee advocacy to amplify reach and engagement – helping to position your organization as an employer of choice in today's competitive talent landscape.
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Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
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1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
An Update on the Brazil Election - September 2014
1. Update on Brazil’s 2014
Presidential Election
th Released September 5 , 2014
2. THE CLOUDS AND THE BRAZILIAN SKY
Few times in history has reality so coldly and cruelly
reflected philosophy. In our first analysis of Brazil’s 2014
election, we mentioned the way that former Senator and
banker Magalhães Pinto (1909-1996) famously described
politics: "politics is like the clouds, you look at them and
they appear one way. Look again and they have already
changed."
On August 13, on a cloudy, windy day, the Cessna Citation
560 XL aircraft transporting presidential candidate
Eduardo Campos (PSB) and members of his staff crashed
in a residential area in the city of Santos, located in the
state of São Paulo, killing all those aboard.
Campos, who had garnered only 8% of the vote in opinion
polls, was not a threat to the reelection of President Dilma
Rousseff (Workers Party or PT), or the efforts of
opposition candidate Aécio Neves (Brazilian Social
Democracy Party or PSDB), in the run-up to the October
5th election. However, Marina Silva (PSB), who was
standing for vice-president under Campos, does represent
such a threat. The three latest national opinion polls
confirm this.
Following the death of Campos, former senator Silva was
selected as the PSB's new Presidential candidate, with
federal representative Beto Albuquerque, from the state
of Rio Grande do Sul, standing as her vice-presidential
candidate. Albuquerque is a politician with links to
agribusiness, a long-standing member of the PSB and a
supporter of the Campos’ proposals.
Five days after the tragedy, a survey by the respected
Datafolha Institute showed that Marina Silva and her party
had leaped in the polls, capturing 21% of voting
intentions, compared with 36% for Rousseff and 20% for
Neves. Analysts attributed this to the fact that emotions
are running high, but interest in the incredible story and
poll numbers to back it up has continued to grow.
On August 26, the Ibope Institute also confirmed Silva's
strong position, calculating that she was expected to
attract 29% of the vote, compared with 34% for Rousseff.
If the elections were to go to a second round of voting,
which is almost assured at this point, the poll predicted
that Silva would win with 45% of the vote, compared to
36% for Rousseff. Neves failed to get past 19%. Another
important factor is the low level of negativity Silva attracts
at just 10%, while 18% report being opposed to Neves and
36% against Rousseff.
On August 29, new research from Datafolha further
reinforced the continued rise of Silva in the polls:
President Rousseff and Silva are now tied at 34% and
Neves with 15%. In a simulated second round, Silva would
win with 50% of the vote to President Rousseff's 40%.
WHO IS MARINA SILVA?
political career in the 1980s working alongside Chico
Mendes, a leader of the rubber tappers in the region.
Silva joined the Workers Part or PT, becoming first a city
counselor and state representative and eventually a
senator in 1994, winning reelection in 2002. Her main
achievement in the capitol of Brasilia was including Brazil
in efforts to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction
targets and she found herself lining up against sectors
linked to agribusiness. She was appointed Minister of the
Environment in 2003 following Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's
election as President and maintained her cordial
relationship with the new administration. She remained a
member of the cabinet for five years and managed to
reduce deforestation and the extent of agricultural
advances onto indigenous land.
Maria Osmarina Marina Silva Vaz de Lima is a black
evangelical Christian, a mother to four children, and
suffers from frequent health issues. She is internationally
known for her stance on the environment, and has a vision
for Brazilian development that balances advances in
agriculture and hydropower with equivalent social and
environmental measures and is widely considered to be
conservative in her approach.
She was born in 1958 in Rio Branco, the capital city of the
state of Acre, an Amazon region on the border with Bolivia
and still one of Brazil's poorest and most underprivileged
regions. She comes from a poor family that worked as
rubber tappers and was illiterate until the age of 16. She
grew up working as a maid and contracted tropical
diseases from which she still suffers today. She began her
3. WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARINA SILVA
Based on recent poll results, the average Brazilian voter
does not currently see any contradictions in Marina Silva's
positions or have concerns about the issues mentioned by
her adversaries. Analysts expect President Rousseff and
Neves to use some of their free-to-air party political
broadcasting time on radio and TV, which began on
August 19 and runs until October 2, to attack the
candidate as she makes significant gains in the polls.
In the area of campaign advertising, the former senator is
at a disadvantage – President Rousseff enjoys 22 minutes
and 48 seconds of air time daily, Neves has 9 minutes and
10 seconds, while Silva has just 4 minutes and 6 seconds.
The airtime is determined by a law that links it to the
parties share of representatives in congress in Brazil.
The former senator's campaign is therefore expected to
make widespread use of social media like Facebook and
Twitter, which are the most popular social networks in
Brazil, in order to promote her proposals. In an article
published in the “Valor Econômico” newspaper, political
Brazil
2014
Today, some of the attacks from her detractors are focused
on the relationship between her campaign staff and Maria
Alice Setubal, known as “Neca,” one of the heirs to the
Itaú-Unibanco financial conglomerate, which is Latin
America's largest privately held bank. On economic
issues, she has developed a relationship with market-oriented
economists who are critical of state intervention,
such as Andre Lara Resende (former chairman of the
BNDES during the Fernando Henrique Cardoso
administration), Eliana Cardoso (formerly of the World
Bank) and Eduardo Giannetti da Fonseca, who is noted in
academic circles for his liberal ideas. Internally, she also
faces resistance from elements in the PSB party which
believe that her political background is not compatible
with the policies supported by Campos.
scientist Alberto Carlos de Almeida pointed out the
difficulties that Marina Silva's adversaries will have in
undermining her, given her humble background and life
story, with the author referring to her as "Lula in a skirt."
In 2010, the 19.6 million votes Marina Silva received
during her first candidacy for President came from voters
who were unhappy with the PT and PSDB parties, mainly
from younger sections of the population. During those
elections, people did not push her for specifics of her
economic proposals, which now could be critical for the
candidates since Brazil’s economy is on the verge of being
labeled as in recession and may end the year at less than
1% growth, together with inflation at more than 6%.
In an interview published in the “Folha de São Paulo”
newspaper, economist Giannetti da Fonseca, a close
advisor to Silva, admitted that the three pillars of the
current economic policy – a floating exchange rate,
inflation targets and fiscal discipline – will be maintained,
and he also voiced support for an independent Central
However, during President Lula's second term, she started
to find it more difficult to enact her proposals because of
the administration’s liberal energy policies, which focused
on building new hydroelectric power stations in the
Amazon region in areas occupied by indigenous people
and subsistence farmers. She stepped down as minister in
2008 in protest and distanced herself from the PT,
canceling her membership the following year.
Both inside and outside the government, she has always
been internationally recognized for her stance on
environmental issues. She received the "2007 Champions
of the Earth" award from the UN, the Duke of Edinburgh
medal from the WWF and, during the London Olympics,
she carried the Olympic flag during the opening ceremony
alongside UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
After leaving the PT, she was challenged by
left-wing groups because of her conservative positions.
For example, she is against decriminalizing abortion. She
was also attacked for her alliances with representatives of
Brazil's financial elite. In 2010, her running mate was
businessman Guilherme Leal, owner of the Natura
cosmetics company, who is ranked 29th on the Forbes list
of Brazilian billionaires, with a fortune worth $1.8 billion.
However, his company is one of the most committed
businesses to sustainable development in Brazil.
4. Bank. In the run-up to the elections, the candidate's
economic team will be holding meetings with various
business groups, particularly Brazilian and foreign
investors, to explain Silva's proposals for tax and
administrative reforms. The biggest challenge is
If Marina Silva's rise in the opinion polls continues and
she faces President Rousseff in the second round
election, scheduled for October 26th, the polls show that
Brazilian voting traditions may change radically. Since
1989, when direct elections for the Brazilian presidency
were reinstated, the winner has always been the person
leading the polls at the beginning of the free political
advertising broadcast season, which just started. Though
slipping in the polls, Neves could still be a wildcard, as he
has significant support in populous states including São
Paulo, Minas Gerais and Paraná. However, when looking at
the sentiments today most believe the the possibility of
Silva losing support and Neves rising in the polls, which
was probable prior to Campos' death, is remote. Even
though this could happen, Neves' economic proposals do
not differ significantly from those presented by Marina
Silva's team, as Neves' economic coordinator is economist
Armínio Fraga, a former chairman of the Brazilian Central
Bank and a staunch supporter of the market economy.
As far as president Rousseff is concerned, she is expected
to try and further strengthen her support among the
Analysis by:
assuaging concerns in the agriculture sector, especially
among livestock breeders and soybean growers, about the
candidate's position, which is to respect the law and abide
by any outstanding commitments.
Paulo Andreoli, Chairman MSLGROUP Latin America and
Roseli Loturco, Public Affairs Consultant, Publicis Consultants Brasil
MSLGROUP Latin America contact:
Josh Shapiro, josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com
poorer sections of society that benefit from social support
programs like the national “bolsa familia” (Family
Benefit) that provides monthly payments to low income
families. The PT is particularly concerned about Marina
Silva's growth in regions such as São Paulo and the
Federal District, where the former minister has already
overtaken President Rousseff in the polls.
With these developments, one can clearly see how the
clouds have shifted in Brazil's Presidential election this
October. The wind is clearly blowing in favor of Marina
Silva. With the exception of agribusiness, the positive
reaction from the business community and financial
markets to Silva's recent public statements can only help
further. If these trends continue, Silvia will easily force a
second round vote with President Rousseff with broad
support to challenge the status quo in the country. With a
Silva administration, some are predicting a "new way" in
Brazil's political dynamic, breaking the current power
struggle that has been unfolding for the last 20 years
between the PT and PSDB parties.
FINAL THOUGHTS