How to align the digital and the ecological transitions.

1. How to Align the Digital with the
Ecological Transition
Lorenz Hilty
University of Zurich, Switzerland
Empa Materials Science and Technology,
Switzerland

2. Analog
Digital
Unsustainable
Sustainable
Image Source: Megan Hollis,
Techsys Digital (TD) Blog, 2015

3. The rate of global material extraction is increasing
Source: United Nations Industrial Development Organization: Green Growth: From labor to resource productivity. Best practice examples, initiatives and policy options. 2013
+89% Metals
+60% Fossil Fuels
+133% Minerals
+35% Biomass (Food, Wood, …)
≈ 10 tons per person year; problematic: scarce metals, fossil fuels, fertilizer minerals, parts of biomass
 We need dematerialization

4. Dematerialization
In production:
Create more value
with less material
resource input
Close material loops.
= increase resource
productivity
In consumption:
Be happy with less
heavy stuff.
Slow down.

5. Digital ICT could be the perfect enabler of
dematerialization,
but it isn’t
because we are using this technology the
wrong way.

6. Arguments:
1. Despite Moore’s Law, we are using more
and more material for ICT hardware.
2. Despite Koomey’s Law, we are using more
and more energy for ICT services.
3. Despite increasing service-sector outputs,
total material requirements are not
decreasing.

7. Arguments:
1. Despite Moore’s Law, we are using more
and more material for ICT hardware.
2. Despite Koomey’s Law, we are using more
and more energy for ICT services.
3. Despite increasing service-sector outputs,
total material requirements are not
decreasing.

8. 2011
Intel 4004
2300 (2.3*103)
transistors on one chip
Intel CORE i7 3960X
2.27 Billion (2.3*109)
transistors on one chip
1971
ICT hardware is dematerializing – a success story
In only 40 years, the number of transistors on a microchip has increased by a
factor of one million.

9. The macro-level effect of micro-level dematerialization
Example:
Development of mobile
phone use in Switzerland
1990-2003
Source: Hilty L.M., Behrendt S., Binswanger M.,
Bruinink A., Erdmann L., Froehlich J., Köhler A.,
Kuster N., Som C., Wuertenberger F. (2005): The
Precautionary Principle in the Information Society
– Effects of Pervasive Computing on Health and
Environment. Swiss Center for Technology
Assessment (TA-SWISS), Bern, p. 187
Total physical
mass [tons]
Physical mass
per phone [g]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
19901991 19921993 19941995 1996 19971998199920002001 20022003
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Numberofusers[Mio.]

10. Half of the periodic table is included in ICT hardware
Chemical elements used
to build digital electronic
devices

11. Mining activities for scarce metals are increasing
Mining under poor working conditions Informal recycling: a form of urban mining
Short service life of “clean” devices

12. Example:
Informal recycling in in
Delhi, India
Source: Empa, Technology and
Society Laboratory

13. Manual extraction of copper from printed wiring boards in Delhi, India.
Typical backyard company with 12 workers. Yield: 1-2 tons/month
Source: Empa, Technology and
Society Laboratory

14. Example:
Informal recycling in in
Guiyu, China
Source: Empa, Technology and
Society Laboratory

15. Example:
Semi-formal recycling
in in Cape Town,
South Africa
Source: Empa, Technology and
Society Laboratory

16. Arguments:
1. Despite Moore’s Law, we are using more
and more material for ICT hardware.
2. Despite Koomey’s Law, we are using more
and more energy for ICT services.
3. Despite increasing service-sector outputs,
total material requirements are not
decreasing.

17. ICT hardware is
“de-energizing”–
another success story
In 70 years of electronic computing
history, the energy efficiency of
processors has increased by a factor of
a million millions.
Thousand
Million
Billion
Trillion
Quadrillion
How many computations can a
processor execute for 1 kWh?
Source: Koomey, J., Berard, S., Sanchez, M. &
Wong, H. (2011): Implications of Historical Trends
in the Electrical Efficiency of Computing. Annals
of the History of Computing, IEEE, 33 (3): 46-54

18. For my first laptop from the 1980ies, if it had to perform like my today’s laptop, I would have
needed a “personal power plant”.
Illustration of energy efficiency progress

19. 0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
2007 2012
Global ICT electricity demand, in MWh/year x cap
Data centers
LCDs
CRTs
Laptops
Desktops
Telecom, Networks
More than 100 kWh per year and person for ICT since 2007
Source: Aebischer, B., Hilty, L.M. (2015):
The Energy Demand of ICT: A Historical
Perspective and Current Methodological
Challenges. In: ICT Innovations for
Sustainability. Advances in Intelligent Systems
and Computing. Springer, pp. 71-103
Global energy demand
of ICT is increasing fast,
despite the increasing
energy efficiency of all
devices involved.

20. Arguments:
1. Despite Moore’s Law, we are using more
and more material for ICT hardware.
2. Despite Koomey’s Law, we are using more
and more energy for ICT services.
3. Despite increasing service-sector outputs,
total material requirements are not
decreasing.

21. 1. Agriculture
Forestry,
Fishing,
Mining
2. Manufacturing
3. Services
4. Information
Services
C. Clark’s theory of progression to a post-industrial economy
Will
deindustrialization
lead to
demateralization?

22. Countries with highest service sector output
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
UnitedStates
China
Japan
Germany
UnitedKingdom
France
Italy
Brazil
Canada
India
Russia
Spain
Australia
SouthCorea
Mexico
Netherlands
Turkey
Switzerland
Service sector
output in
Billion US-$
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
UnitedStates
China
Japan
Germany
UnitedKingdom
France
Italy
Brazil
Canada
India
Russia
Spain
Australia
SouthCorea
Mexico
Netherlands
Turkey
Switzerland
Service sector output
in Billion US-$
Per capita service
sector output in US-$

23. 40 tons of material resources are extracted per person, of which 67% outside our country.
23
Example: TMR of Switzerland

24. 40 tons per person are ≈ factor 4 above the global average

25. Analog
Digital
Unsustainable
Sustainable
Image Source: Megan Hollis,
Techsys Digital (TD) Blog, 2015

26. What would it mean to use ICT the right way?
How would we use ICT in a world of scarce natural resources?
(We live in such a world but are not aware of the scarcity)
How would we use ICT if prices of all products would tell the
truth about resource depletion, pollution, land use change,
occupational health/labor conditions, and other externalities?

27. Vision 1:
Self-sufficient communications infrastructure
With further progress in energy efficiency of ICT and energy harvesting devices,
it could be possible to create a self-sufficient communications infrastructure
with long-lasting small nodes needing no external energy supply.
Precursors: Energy harvesting network nodes, ad-hoc wireless network protocols

28. Vision 2:
Collaboration in virtual environments replaces travel
Physical travel with high
carbon intensity
Virtual meetings:
Connecting people via ICT
Collaboration in virtual
environments
Source: Coroama, V.C., Moberg, Å., Hilty, L.M.
(2015): Dematerialization through Electronic
Media? In: ICT Innovations for Sustainability.
Advances in Intelligent Systems and
Computing. Springer, 405-421

29. Vision 3:
Recycling robots powered by abundant renewable energy
The Flintstones’ garbage
disposal pig
Artificial Intelligence version of
recycling device, working only
during electricity supply peaks
(store energy as material purity)
digitize

30. Image Source: Megan Hollis,
Techsys Digital (TD) Blog, 2015
What’s your vision of dematerialization?
Thank you!