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                Chapter Seven
       The Normal Probability Distribution
GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to:
 ONE
 List the characteristics of the normal probability distribution.
 TWO
 Define and calculate z values.
 THREE
 Determine the probability an observation will lie between two
 points using the standard normal distribution.
 FOUR
 Determine the probability an observation will be above or
 below a given value using the standard normal distribution.
7- 2


               Chapter Seven        continued

     The Normal Probability Distribution
 GOALS
 When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to:

FIVE
Compare two or more observations that are on different
probability distributions.
SIX
Use the normal distribution to approximate the binomial
probability distribution.
7- 3

       Characteristics of a Normal
         Probability Distribution
‱ The normal curve is bell-shaped and has a single
  peak at the exact center of the distribution.

The   arithmetic mean, median, and mode of the
distribution are equal and located at the peak.
Thus half the area under the curve is above the
mean and half is below it.
7- 4

        Characteristics of a Normal
          Probability Distribution
‱ The normal probability distribution is
  symmetrical about its mean.

 The  normal probability distribution is
 asymptotic. That is the curve gets closer and
 closer to the X-axis but never actually
 touches it.
7- 5
                              r   a   l   i   t r    b   u    i o   n   :   ”   =   0   ,   σ2   =   1

                        Characteristics of a Normal Distribution

              0   . 4



                                                                                                          Normal
                                                                                                          curve is
              0   . 3                                                                                     symmetrical


              0   . 2




                                                                                                         Theoretically,
                                                                                                         curve
      f ( x




              0   . 1
                                                                                                         extends to
                                                                                                         infinity

                  . 0




                        - 5
                        a
                                               Mean, median, and
                                                             x


                                               mode are equal
McGraw-Hill/Irwin                                   Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
7- 6

  The Standard Normal Probability
            Distribution
‱ The standard normal distribution is a normal
  distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard
  deviation of 1.
‱ It is also called the z distribution.
A  z-value is the distance between a selected value,
designated X, and the population mean , , divided by
the population standard deviation, t . The formula is:

                     X −”
               z =
                        σ
7- 7



                  EXAMPLE 1
‱ The bi-monthly starting salaries of recent MBA
  graduates follows the normal distribution with a
  mean of $2,000 and a standard deviation of $200.
  What is the z-value for a salary of $2,200?
              X −”
        z =
                σ
            $2,200 − 2,000
                    $
           =               =2.00
                 $200
7- 8



             EXAMPLE 1           continued


 What   is the z-value of $1,700.
          X −”
    z =
            σ
        $1,700 − 2,200
                $
      =                =− .50
                         1
             $200
‱ A z-value of 1 indicates that the value of $2,200 is
  one standard deviation above the mean of
  $2,000. A z-value of –1.50 indicates that $1,700 is
  1.5 standard deviation below the mean of $2000.
7- 9



   Areas Under the Normal Curve
‱ About 68 percent of the area under the normal curve
  is within one standard deviation of the mean.
                   i
‱ About 95 percent is within two standard deviations
  of the mean.
                   o 22
‱ Practically all is within three standard deviations of
  the mean. t
                        33
7- 10
                              Areas Under the Normal Curve
                              r   a   l   i   t r   b   u    i o   n   :   ”   =    0   ,   σ2   =   1




              0   . 4


                                                                                                     Between:
                                                                                                     B11 - 68.26%
              0   . 3                                                                                 22 - 95.44%
                                                                                                      33 - 99.74%
              0   . 2
      f ( x




              0   . 1




                  . 0




                                                                 ”             ” + 2σ
                        - 5


                                          ” − 2σ
                                                                                        ” + 3σ
                                                            x

                                  ” − 3σ        ” −1σ                  ” +1σ
                                                                Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.,.All rights reserved
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
7- 11



                 EXAMPLE 2
  The daily water usage per person in New
  Providence, New Jersey is normally distributed
  with a mean of 20 gallons and a standard
  deviation of 5 gallons. About 68 percent of
  those living in New Providence will use how
  many gallons of water?
‱ About 68% of the daily water usage will lie
  between 15 and 25 gallons.
7- 12



                EXAMPLE 3
‱ What is the probability that a person from New
  Providence selected at random will use between
  20 and 24 gallons per day?
      X −” 20 − 20
  z =     =        = .00
                    0
       σ      5

      X −” 24 − 20
  z =     =        = .80
                    0
       σ      5
7- 13



               Example 3 continued
‱ The area under a normal curve between a z-value of
  0 and a z-value of 0.80 is 0.2881.

‱ We conclude that 28.81 percent of the residents use
  between 20 and 24 gallons of water per day.

‱ See the following diagram.
7- 14
                              r    a   l    i
                                                  EXAMPLE 3
                                                t r   b   u    i o   n   :   ”       =   0   ,




              0   . 4




              0   . 3
                                                                                                                      P(0<z<.8)
                                                                                                                      =.2881
              0   . 2




                                                                                                 0<x<.8
      f ( x




              0   . 1




                  . 0




                        - 5




                              -4       -3       -2 -1         x
                                                                     0           1       2       3    4
                                                                     Copyright ©2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.,.All rights reserved
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
7- 15



              EXAMPLE 3 continued
‱ What percent of the population use between 18 and
  26 gallons per day?


       X −” 18 − 20
   z =     =        = 0.40
                     −
        σ      5

        X −” 26 − 20
    z =     =        = .20
                      1
         σ      5
7- 16



              Example 3 continued
‱ The area associated with a z-value of –0.40 is .
  1554.

‱ The area associated with a z-value of 1.20 is .
  3849.

‱ Adding these areas, the result is .5403.

‱ We conclude that 54.03 percent of the residents
  use between 18 and 26 gallons of water per day.
7- 17



                 EXAMPLE 4
‱ Professor Mann has determined that the scores
  in his statistics course are approximately
  normally distributed with a mean of 72 and a
  standard deviation of 5. He announces to the
  class that the top 15 percent of the scores will
  earn an A. What is the lowest score a student
  can earn and still receive an A?
7- 18



              Example 4 continued
‱ To begin let X be the score that separates an A
  from a B.
‱ If 15 percent of the students score more than X,
  then 35 percent must score between the mean
  of 72 and X.
The  z-value associated corresponding to
35 percent is about 1.04.
7- 19



              Example 4 continued
‱ We let z equal 1.04 and solve the standard normal
  equation for X. The result is the score that
  separates students that earned an A from those
  that earned a B.

           X −72
    1.04 =
             5
      X =72 + .04(5) =72 +5.2 =77.2
               1


Those with a score of 77.2 or more earn an A.
7- 20

The Normal Approximation to the
           Binomial
‱ The normal distribution (a continuous
  distribution) yields a good approximation of the
  binomial distribution (a discrete distribution) for
  large values of n.

The   normal probability distribution is generally a
good approximation to the binomial probability
distribution when nn and n(1- n ) are both greater
than 5.
7- 21



The Normal Approximation                       continued


Recall for the binomial experiment:
‱ There are only two mutually exclusive outcomes
  (success or failure) on each trial.
‱ A binomial distribution results from counting the
  number of successes.
‱ Each trial is independent.
‱ The probability is fixed from trial to trial, and the
  number of trials n is also fixed.
7- 22



     Continuity Correction Factor
‱ The value .5 subtracted or added, depending
  on the problem, to a selected value when a
  binomial probability distribution (a discrete
  probability distribution) is being approximated
  by a continuous probability distribution (the
  normal distribution).
7- 23



               EXAMPLE 5
A recent study by a marketing research firm
showed that 15% of American households owned
a video camera. For a sample of 200 homes, how
many of the homes would you expect to have
video cameras?
        ” = nπ = (.15)(200) = 30
This is the mean of a binomial distribution.
7- 24



              EXAMPLE 5 continued
‱ What is the variance?
  σ = nπ (1 − π ) = (30)(1−.15) = 25.5
    2




What   is the standard deviation?


   σ = 25.5 = 5.0498
7- 25



                    Example 5
  What is the probability that less than 40 homes in
  the sample have video cameras?

‱ We use the correction factor, so X is 39.5.
‱ The value of z is 1.88.

               X −”     39.5 − 30.0
          z=          =             = 1.88
                σ         5.0498
7- 26



                Example 5 continued
‱ From Appendix D the area between 0 and 1.88 on
  the z scale is .4699.

‱ So the area to the left of 1.88 is .5000 + .4699 = .
  9699.

‱ The likelihood that less than 40 of the 200 homes
  have a video camera is about 97%.
7- 27
                                                                            ”                  σ2

                                          EXAMPLE 5
                              r   a   l    i   t r   b   u   i o   n   :          =    0   ,        =   1




              0   . 4




                                                                                                        P(z<1.88)
              0   . 3
                                                                                                        =.5000+.4699
                                                                                                        =.9699

              0   . 2
      f ( x




              0   . 1
                                                                                               z=1.88


                  . 0




                        - 5



                                                                   0         1        2        3        4               z

                                                                           Copyright ©2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., . All rights reserved
McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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MTH120_Chapter7

  • 1. 7- 1 Chapter Seven The Normal Probability Distribution GOALS When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to: ONE List the characteristics of the normal probability distribution. TWO Define and calculate z values. THREE Determine the probability an observation will lie between two points using the standard normal distribution. FOUR Determine the probability an observation will be above or below a given value using the standard normal distribution.
  • 2. 7- 2 Chapter Seven continued The Normal Probability Distribution GOALS When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to: FIVE Compare two or more observations that are on different probability distributions. SIX Use the normal distribution to approximate the binomial probability distribution.
  • 3. 7- 3 Characteristics of a Normal Probability Distribution ‱ The normal curve is bell-shaped and has a single peak at the exact center of the distribution. The arithmetic mean, median, and mode of the distribution are equal and located at the peak. Thus half the area under the curve is above the mean and half is below it.
  • 4. 7- 4 Characteristics of a Normal Probability Distribution ‱ The normal probability distribution is symmetrical about its mean. The normal probability distribution is asymptotic. That is the curve gets closer and closer to the X-axis but never actually touches it.
  • 5. 7- 5 r a l i t r b u i o n : ” = 0 , σ2 = 1 Characteristics of a Normal Distribution 0 . 4 Normal curve is 0 . 3 symmetrical 0 . 2 Theoretically, curve f ( x 0 . 1 extends to infinity . 0 - 5 a Mean, median, and x mode are equal McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
  • 6. 7- 6 The Standard Normal Probability Distribution ‱ The standard normal distribution is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. ‱ It is also called the z distribution. A z-value is the distance between a selected value, designated X, and the population mean , , divided by the population standard deviation, t . The formula is: X −” z = σ
  • 7. 7- 7 EXAMPLE 1 ‱ The bi-monthly starting salaries of recent MBA graduates follows the normal distribution with a mean of $2,000 and a standard deviation of $200. What is the z-value for a salary of $2,200? X −” z = σ $2,200 − 2,000 $ = =2.00 $200
  • 8. 7- 8 EXAMPLE 1 continued What is the z-value of $1,700. X −” z = σ $1,700 − 2,200 $ = =− .50 1 $200 ‱ A z-value of 1 indicates that the value of $2,200 is one standard deviation above the mean of $2,000. A z-value of –1.50 indicates that $1,700 is 1.5 standard deviation below the mean of $2000.
  • 9. 7- 9 Areas Under the Normal Curve ‱ About 68 percent of the area under the normal curve is within one standard deviation of the mean. i ‱ About 95 percent is within two standard deviations of the mean. o 22 ‱ Practically all is within three standard deviations of the mean. t 33
  • 10. 7- 10 Areas Under the Normal Curve r a l i t r b u i o n : ” = 0 , σ2 = 1 0 . 4 Between: B11 - 68.26% 0 . 3 22 - 95.44% 33 - 99.74% 0 . 2 f ( x 0 . 1 . 0 ” ” + 2σ - 5 ” − 2σ ” + 3σ x ” − 3σ ” −1σ ” +1σ Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.,.All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin
  • 11. 7- 11 EXAMPLE 2 The daily water usage per person in New Providence, New Jersey is normally distributed with a mean of 20 gallons and a standard deviation of 5 gallons. About 68 percent of those living in New Providence will use how many gallons of water? ‱ About 68% of the daily water usage will lie between 15 and 25 gallons.
  • 12. 7- 12 EXAMPLE 3 ‱ What is the probability that a person from New Providence selected at random will use between 20 and 24 gallons per day? X −” 20 − 20 z = = = .00 0 σ 5 X −” 24 − 20 z = = = .80 0 σ 5
  • 13. 7- 13 Example 3 continued ‱ The area under a normal curve between a z-value of 0 and a z-value of 0.80 is 0.2881. ‱ We conclude that 28.81 percent of the residents use between 20 and 24 gallons of water per day. ‱ See the following diagram.
  • 14. 7- 14 r a l i EXAMPLE 3 t r b u i o n : ” = 0 , 0 . 4 0 . 3 P(0<z<.8) =.2881 0 . 2 0<x<.8 f ( x 0 . 1 . 0 - 5 -4 -3 -2 -1 x 0 1 2 3 4 Copyright ©2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.,.All rights reserved Irwin/McGraw-Hill
  • 15. 7- 15 EXAMPLE 3 continued ‱ What percent of the population use between 18 and 26 gallons per day? X −” 18 − 20 z = = = 0.40 − σ 5 X −” 26 − 20 z = = = .20 1 σ 5
  • 16. 7- 16 Example 3 continued ‱ The area associated with a z-value of –0.40 is . 1554. ‱ The area associated with a z-value of 1.20 is . 3849. ‱ Adding these areas, the result is .5403. ‱ We conclude that 54.03 percent of the residents use between 18 and 26 gallons of water per day.
  • 17. 7- 17 EXAMPLE 4 ‱ Professor Mann has determined that the scores in his statistics course are approximately normally distributed with a mean of 72 and a standard deviation of 5. He announces to the class that the top 15 percent of the scores will earn an A. What is the lowest score a student can earn and still receive an A?
  • 18. 7- 18 Example 4 continued ‱ To begin let X be the score that separates an A from a B. ‱ If 15 percent of the students score more than X, then 35 percent must score between the mean of 72 and X. The z-value associated corresponding to 35 percent is about 1.04.
  • 19. 7- 19 Example 4 continued ‱ We let z equal 1.04 and solve the standard normal equation for X. The result is the score that separates students that earned an A from those that earned a B. X −72 1.04 = 5 X =72 + .04(5) =72 +5.2 =77.2 1 Those with a score of 77.2 or more earn an A.
  • 20. 7- 20 The Normal Approximation to the Binomial ‱ The normal distribution (a continuous distribution) yields a good approximation of the binomial distribution (a discrete distribution) for large values of n. The normal probability distribution is generally a good approximation to the binomial probability distribution when nn and n(1- n ) are both greater than 5.
  • 21. 7- 21 The Normal Approximation continued Recall for the binomial experiment: ‱ There are only two mutually exclusive outcomes (success or failure) on each trial. ‱ A binomial distribution results from counting the number of successes. ‱ Each trial is independent. ‱ The probability is fixed from trial to trial, and the number of trials n is also fixed.
  • 22. 7- 22 Continuity Correction Factor ‱ The value .5 subtracted or added, depending on the problem, to a selected value when a binomial probability distribution (a discrete probability distribution) is being approximated by a continuous probability distribution (the normal distribution).
  • 23. 7- 23 EXAMPLE 5 A recent study by a marketing research firm showed that 15% of American households owned a video camera. For a sample of 200 homes, how many of the homes would you expect to have video cameras? ” = nπ = (.15)(200) = 30 This is the mean of a binomial distribution.
  • 24. 7- 24 EXAMPLE 5 continued ‱ What is the variance? σ = nπ (1 − π ) = (30)(1−.15) = 25.5 2 What is the standard deviation? σ = 25.5 = 5.0498
  • 25. 7- 25 Example 5 What is the probability that less than 40 homes in the sample have video cameras? ‱ We use the correction factor, so X is 39.5. ‱ The value of z is 1.88. X −” 39.5 − 30.0 z= = = 1.88 σ 5.0498
  • 26. 7- 26 Example 5 continued ‱ From Appendix D the area between 0 and 1.88 on the z scale is .4699. ‱ So the area to the left of 1.88 is .5000 + .4699 = . 9699. ‱ The likelihood that less than 40 of the 200 homes have a video camera is about 97%.
  • 27. 7- 27 ” σ2 EXAMPLE 5 r a l i t r b u i o n : = 0 , = 1 0 . 4 P(z<1.88) 0 . 3 =.5000+.4699 =.9699 0 . 2 f ( x 0 . 1 z=1.88 . 0 - 5 0 1 2 3 4 z Copyright ©2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., . All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin