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MTH120_Chapter7
1. 7- 1
Chapter Seven
The Normal Probability Distribution
GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to:
ONE
List the characteristics of the normal probability distribution.
TWO
Define and calculate z values.
THREE
Determine the probability an observation will lie between two
points using the standard normal distribution.
FOUR
Determine the probability an observation will be above or
below a given value using the standard normal distribution.
2. 7- 2
Chapter Seven continued
The Normal Probability Distribution
GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to:
FIVE
Compare two or more observations that are on different
probability distributions.
SIX
Use the normal distribution to approximate the binomial
probability distribution.
3. 7- 3
Characteristics of a Normal
Probability Distribution
âą The normal curve is bell-shaped and has a single
peak at the exact center of the distribution.
ïThe arithmetic mean, median, and mode of the
distribution are equal and located at the peak.
Thus half the area under the curve is above the
mean and half is below it.
4. 7- 4
Characteristics of a Normal
Probability Distribution
âą The normal probability distribution is
symmetrical about its mean.
ïThe normal probability distribution is
asymptotic. That is the curve gets closer and
closer to the X-axis but never actually
touches it.
6. 7- 6
The Standard Normal Probability
Distribution
âą The standard normal distribution is a normal
distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard
deviation of 1.
âą It is also called the z distribution.
ïA z-value is the distance between a selected value,
designated X, and the population mean , , divided by
the population standard deviation, t . The formula is:
X â”
z =
Ï
7. 7- 7
EXAMPLE 1
âą The bi-monthly starting salaries of recent MBA
graduates follows the normal distribution with a
mean of $2,000 and a standard deviation of $200.
What is the z-value for a salary of $2,200?
X â”
z =
Ï
$2,200 â 2,000
$
= =2.00
$200
8. 7- 8
EXAMPLE 1 continued
ïWhat is the z-value of $1,700.
X â”
z =
Ï
$1,700 â 2,200
$
= =â .50
1
$200
âą A z-value of 1 indicates that the value of $2,200 is
one standard deviation above the mean of
$2,000. A z-value of â1.50 indicates that $1,700 is
1.5 standard deviation below the mean of $2000.
9. 7- 9
Areas Under the Normal Curve
âą About 68 percent of the area under the normal curve
is within one standard deviation of the mean.
i
âą About 95 percent is within two standard deviations
of the mean.
o 22
âą Practically all is within three standard deviations of
the mean. t
33
11. 7- 11
EXAMPLE 2
The daily water usage per person in New
Providence, New Jersey is normally distributed
with a mean of 20 gallons and a standard
deviation of 5 gallons. About 68 percent of
those living in New Providence will use how
many gallons of water?
âą About 68% of the daily water usage will lie
between 15 and 25 gallons.
12. 7- 12
EXAMPLE 3
âą What is the probability that a person from New
Providence selected at random will use between
20 and 24 gallons per day?
X â” 20 â 20
z = = = .00
0
Ï 5
X â” 24 â 20
z = = = .80
0
Ï 5
13. 7- 13
Example 3 continued
âą The area under a normal curve between a z-value of
0 and a z-value of 0.80 is 0.2881.
âą We conclude that 28.81 percent of the residents use
between 20 and 24 gallons of water per day.
âą See the following diagram.
15. 7- 15
EXAMPLE 3 continued
âą What percent of the population use between 18 and
26 gallons per day?
X â” 18 â 20
z = = = 0.40
â
Ï 5
X â” 26 â 20
z = = = .20
1
Ï 5
16. 7- 16
Example 3 continued
âą The area associated with a z-value of â0.40 is .
1554.
âą The area associated with a z-value of 1.20 is .
3849.
âą Adding these areas, the result is .5403.
âą We conclude that 54.03 percent of the residents
use between 18 and 26 gallons of water per day.
17. 7- 17
EXAMPLE 4
âą Professor Mann has determined that the scores
in his statistics course are approximately
normally distributed with a mean of 72 and a
standard deviation of 5. He announces to the
class that the top 15 percent of the scores will
earn an A. What is the lowest score a student
can earn and still receive an A?
18. 7- 18
Example 4 continued
âą To begin let X be the score that separates an A
from a B.
âą If 15 percent of the students score more than X,
then 35 percent must score between the mean
of 72 and X.
ïThe z-value associated corresponding to
35 percent is about 1.04.
19. 7- 19
Example 4 continued
âą We let z equal 1.04 and solve the standard normal
equation for X. The result is the score that
separates students that earned an A from those
that earned a B.
X â72
1.04 =
5
X =72 + .04(5) =72 +5.2 =77.2
1
Those with a score of 77.2 or more earn an A.
20. 7- 20
The Normal Approximation to the
Binomial
âą The normal distribution (a continuous
distribution) yields a good approximation of the
binomial distribution (a discrete distribution) for
large values of n.
ïThe normal probability distribution is generally a
good approximation to the binomial probability
distribution when nn and n(1- n ) are both greater
than 5.
21. 7- 21
The Normal Approximation continued
Recall for the binomial experiment:
âą There are only two mutually exclusive outcomes
(success or failure) on each trial.
âą A binomial distribution results from counting the
number of successes.
âą Each trial is independent.
âą The probability is fixed from trial to trial, and the
number of trials n is also fixed.
22. 7- 22
Continuity Correction Factor
âą The value .5 subtracted or added, depending
on the problem, to a selected value when a
binomial probability distribution (a discrete
probability distribution) is being approximated
by a continuous probability distribution (the
normal distribution).
23. 7- 23
EXAMPLE 5
A recent study by a marketing research firm
showed that 15% of American households owned
a video camera. For a sample of 200 homes, how
many of the homes would you expect to have
video cameras?
” = nÏ = (.15)(200) = 30
This is the mean of a binomial distribution.
24. 7- 24
EXAMPLE 5 continued
âą What is the variance?
Ï = nÏ (1 â Ï ) = (30)(1â.15) = 25.5
2
ïWhat is the standard deviation?
Ï = 25.5 = 5.0498
25. 7- 25
Example 5
What is the probability that less than 40 homes in
the sample have video cameras?
âą We use the correction factor, so X is 39.5.
âą The value of z is 1.88.
X â” 39.5 â 30.0
z= = = 1.88
Ï 5.0498
26. 7- 26
Example 5 continued
âą From Appendix D the area between 0 and 1.88 on
the z scale is .4699.
âą So the area to the left of 1.88 is .5000 + .4699 = .
9699.
âą The likelihood that less than 40 of the 200 homes
have a video camera is about 97%.