For Singaporeans, multiculturalism is the base of their nationalism. Along with its contribution in social transformation and economic development, their multiculturalism serves as the base for national resilience and is internalized within the part of of citizen life everyday. Its stability is maintained on the basis a pre-determined ratio of ethnic composition, known as the CMIO (Chinese-Malays-Indians-Others), which has been sustained over time. However, taking this for granted could pose significant challenges as the country moves towards achieving higher economic development that immediately puts the nation in a highly dynamic position regarding matters such as immigration, terrorism, and social change. In this paper, we seek to anticipate the future so that we are better prepared for the alternatives that may arise in the future by using some methods of Futures Studies. In doing so, we firstly identify the theoretical and practical base of multiculturalism in Singapore and highlight some statistics and events that set the trends in which we should imagine the future. The bearings of the past and present on the future of Singapore multiculturalism is firstly analyzed using a futures triangle. We then use the RAHS (Risk Analysis and Horizon Scanning) software to create system maps, identify sub-models, and conduct a morphological analysis on the various drivers. This helps us in identifying and mitigating the challenges that might be faced by analysts and government in adapting to necessary changes. Then a deeper analysis of the various key drivers affecting Singaporean multiculturalism is done using the four quadrant model to highlight which issues could be handled in the short to medium term by policies and legislature and which others would need a more long term and gradual change of attitude among Singaporeans. Wild cards and their importance in the Singaporean context is also studied which is followed by a scenario building exercise to highlight the various alternatives that may lie in the future of Singaporean Multiculturalism. We conclude with certain key findings and a few recommendations on the way forward.

1. Mosaic – Protecting the
Multi-racialism of
Singapore
Sarita, Ivana, Andrew, Shubra

2. Outline
 Introduction
 Key Findings
 Challenges faced and mitigation
 Methods Used – 4 Quadrant, Scenarios
 Systems Map
 Wild Cards
 Scenario Snapshot – Worst Case, Best Case,…
 Conclusion and Way Forward

3. Introduction
 What is Multiculturalism?
 The degree of multiculturalism:
assimilation, segregation, integration
 Integration
Hard & Mild
 Current approach of Singapore: Hard multiculturalism
(take further the ethnic differences to be preserved. This
policy “supports the protection of minority rights
through institutional recognition of cultural difference in
the public sphere including political representations.” )

4. Singaporean Hard
Multiculturalism
 Language education
 Different channel for strengthening social integrity:
MENDAKI, SINDA and CDAC
 CMIO : 78 % Chinese, 12% Malay, 7 % Indian, and
Others

5. Current Trends
 the Inclusiveness Index fo Singaporeans increased by 19.6 percent
from 47.5 percent in 2007 to 67.1 percent in 2011
 total population of Singapore is at 5.18 million. This number was
composed of 3,79 residents which consisted of 3.26 million
citizens and 0.53 million permanent residents (PR) and 1.39
foreigners
 In the 2011, the Chinese remains at the 74 percent of the number
of total residents. The Malay and the Indian are 13 percent and 9.2
respectively.
 Recent IPS Survey: 2000 respondents saying that the most
defining character of Singaporean-ness is respect for the practices
of different races and religions; new immigrants should be well-
employed and “get along with their neighbours” , keep
maintaining their foreign cultures

6. Alerts! (key findings)
 the lost of votes of the ruling party in 2011 general
election was partly attributed to the issue of
immigration; 52 percent of Singaporeans felt that
immigration was an important issue in the election.
 26 percent Singaporeans who felt that the existence of the
foreigners in Singapore affected their economy
 “the proportion of those who felt they were worse off by
the foreigners was the highest in the 21-29 years old
segment .
 the proportion of those who felt they were worse off by
the foreigners was the largest in the lowest income
segment ($0 - $1999 and $2000 - $4999)

7. While the aggregate statistics
remain (relatively) solid ...
 Issues of social gap and youth
 The Curry Case
 The Slashing incident

8. Challenges Faced and
Mitigation
 Challenges
 Reluctance to Accept Changes
 Effectively Communicating to wide variety of Stakeholders
 Gaps between Planners and Implementers
 Lack of follow up and tracking of Strategic Initiatives
 Complexity induced inertia for continuously adapting the
scenarios
 Heuristic judgement, Confirmation biases and Cognitive
dissonance
 Mitigation – Tools like Morphological Analysis, System
Map, and Futures Map

9. Morphological Analysis

10. System Map

11. Methods Used – 4 Quadrant

12. Methods Used –Scenarios
 Explore many different alternatives that may emerge in the
future.
 Better-prepared for facing the most uncertain and shocking
surprises of the future.
 Easy to understand story-like narrative with which actors can
easily relate to.
 The four main steps that went into our scenario building process
were :
 Establishing the foundational assumptions upon which the
scenario is constructed
 Capture the vast number of possible drivers that could affect
Multiculturalism.
 Identify and analyse key drivers including wild cards –
Assisted by Systems Maps
 Test and Build complete scenarios based on these key drivers
and wild cards – assisted by Morphological Analysis

13. System Maps

19. Wild Cards
 “Low Probability, High Impact Events that happen quickly” - John L.
Petersen
 Three key characteristics:
 Direct Impact on Human Condition
 Has broad, large, important and sometimes fundamental
implications
 Moves too fast for the whole system to adjust to the shock.
 Problem of Identification as there is hardly any evidence
 Importance for Singapore weak signals are highly critical in
maintaining the peace and stability especially because of its small
size, high immigrant population, and diverse and delicate ethnic
composition.
 Example - Emergence of Gangs and Mafia, Cyber Crime and Cyber
Terrorism, Critical Infrastructure Damage

20. Preferred Scenario for Singapore
multiculturalism (next 30 years)
 the elimination of politically-correct ethnic division
among Singaporeans (CMIO) by the government
and achieving a seamless integration between the
different ethnic groups within the Singaporean as
well as the immigrant population. However, each of
this ethnic group is entitled to practice their cultural
and religious activities and beliefs.

21.  the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 +
further integration of global economy -> increasing domestic
demand of work forces -> foreign talent + foreign workers +
immigration policy -> high influx of immigrants -> strengthen
Singapore economy -> loss job opportunity for Singaporean ->
destabilization of social , political and economic stability ->
unconducive environment as the level of integration of this
foreigners are very low -> increasing social & political engagement -
> demand for limiting the number of foreign talents -> at the
economic realm, certain ethnic group might have the perception that
the government privilege the other ethnic group limitation in the
number of immigrants -> the immigrants has to go through
induction and selection process -> the maintenance of multiracial
stability (the limited incoming foreign talents are given rights at par
with Singaporeans) -> language barriers are reduced by the used of
one single operating language for everyone. government invites
their citizens to participate in the DMP -> the use of social media
platform (exclusive to Singapore) -> increase socio-political
participation of its citizens + immigrants -> consequently, the
government can take proactive measures to address social problems
-> this participative DMP leads to chaos (clash of interests) ->
synergy of govt policies this experience -> Singapore govt has
realized that the existence of ethnic division among Singaporeans is
very detrimental.

22. Scenario Snapshot – Worst Case
 Frequent Global Economic Crisis -> Shift to Regional Trade Agreements ->
Greater Regional Stability -> Downgrading Port Security due to reduced
regional security concerns -> Decrease in revenue from foreign trade ->
Rising Unemployment at Ports-> Increase in organized crime
(gangs/mafia) -> Use of services of such gangs by terrorist organizations -
> Strict legal action against Gangs -> Misinformation spread by terrorists
using social media that the Govt. is targeting a specific ethnic community ->
Certain communities stage protests -> Government tries to pacify the
enraged communities -> However terrorist selectively detonate bombs at
critical communal establishments and successfully incite communal
violence -> Govt. is accused of deliberately giving less protection to
minorities-> Ethnic and Communal Violence Erupts mostly among migrant
community -> The government declares a state of emergency and deports
immigrants -> Home countries of immigrants protest against deportation
however economic interdependence saves the day -> an uneasy calmness
prevails -> Govt. gradually cuts down on immigration, but unfortunately
cannot stop emigration as unemployed Singaporeans relocate to emerging
markets with strong and stable domestic economies -> Govt. tries to retain
talent by announcing tax cuts and housing benefits -> But extensive
reputational damage results in slow and gradual recovery

23. Scenario Snapshot – Wild
Cards
 Examples :
 Socio-Political Disengagement -> Emergence of Gangs and
Mafia -> Corruption -> Social Media Activism -> Socio-
Political Engagement -> Transparency -> Social Instability ->
Racial Instability -> Government Reforms -> Participatory
decision making -> Greater Nationalism -> Stable
Multiracialism
 Cyber Terrorism -> Critical Infrastructure Damage ->
Consumer Activism -> Socio – Political Engagement ->
Participative Decision Making -> Greater Political Chaos ->
Reputational Damage -> Economic Instability -> Emergence of
Gangs and Mafia -> Gang Wars -> Social Instability -> Govt.
Clampdown -> Temporary and Uneasy Calm Prevails

24. Conclusion & Way
Forward
•Ethnic Segregation might put a frame in the minds of Singaporeans
and Immigrants that they are different from each other. This fact can
be easily exploited by external disruptive agents or internal anti-
social agents.
•The Singapore government should not take steps that causes
communal segregation and distinguishes one from the other.
Instead they should try to re-engage the society in the decision
making process using a participative approach to governance and
make policies which encourage seamless integrative
multiculturalism.
•Way Forward:
 Analyze impacts of Domestic Policies on Ethnic and Communal
Stability.
 Encourage Socio-Political Participation
 Follow up, Track and Dynamically Modify Scenarios and Strategic
Initiatives to factor the changes in the relevance of drivers.

25. THANK YOU!