Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
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GTZ, Eschborn, May 6, 2010
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Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
- 1. Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security Shenggen FanDirector General International Food Policy Research Institute GTZ, Eschborn, May 6, 2010
- 3. Climate change will affect agriculture and food security
- 4. Agriculture is key for adaptation and mitigation
- 7. Prevalence of underweight in children
- 8. Under-five mortality rateSource: von Grebmer et al. 2009.
- 9. Emerging stress factors Population growth and demographic changes Land and water constraints Climate change Rising temperature and CO2 concentration Source: World Bank 2010..
- 10. Climate change affects agriculture Lower crop and livestock yields due to Higher temperatures Changes in precipitation patterns Extreme events e.g. droughts Lower availability of agricultural land due to Sea level rise
- 11. Climate change impact: Average yields NCAR A2a Source: Nelson et al. 2009..
- 12. Irrigated rice yields NCAR A2 Source: M. Rosegrant 2010.
- 13. Rainfed rice yields NCAR A2 Source: M. Rosegrant 2010.
- 14. Rainfed maize yields NCAR A2 Source: M. Rosegrant 2010.
- 15. Lost agricultural area from sea level rise 30 percent of Vietnam rice growing area Source: Nelson 2010..
- 16. Climate change impact: Global food prices Source: Nelson et al. 2009..
- 17. Climate change impact: Net cereal trade Source: Nelson et al. 2009. Note: Negative values indicate net imports.
- 18. Climate change impact: Child malnutrition Source: Nelson et al. 2009..
- 19. Agriculture is crucial for adaptation and mitigation Global carbon emissions by sector Source: IPCC 2007..
- 20. Adaptation measures vary by country Source: M. Rosegrant 2010.
- 22. Crop breeding for irrigated and rainfed agriculture
- 23. Biotechnology for stress-tolerant planting materials
- 24. Soil and water management
- 25. Minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management, water harvesting
- 26. Rural investment
- 27. Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, risk insurance, credit, inputsSource: Rosegrant 2009.
- 28. Agricultural adaptation policy needs Fund research that improves understanding of climate change and agriculture interactions Invest in technology, infrastructure, data collection (e.g. high resolution spatially-explicit data), and institutional innovation Support national and international institutions that foster resilience Source: Rosegrant 2009.
- 29. Agricultural mitigation policy needs Include carbon sequestration from soil carbon in global carbon trading system Fund development and implementation of low-cost monitoring systems Allow innovative payment mechanisms and support novel institutions for agricultural mitigation Create institutional innovations linking communities to global markets e.g. regional centers for carbon trading Source: Rosegrant 2009.
- 30. Recent IFPRI climate change products funded by BMZ/GTZ How can African agriculture adapt to climate change? Insights from Ethiopia and South Africa A series of 17 briefs Strategies for adapting to climate change in rural Sub-Saharan Africa: A review of the national adaptation plans for agriculture in ASARECA member countries Micro-level practices to adapt to climate change for African small-scale farmers: A review of selected literature
- 31. New agenda for food security needed Invest in agriculture and improve smallholder productivity Keep trade open Promote productive social protection Improve institutions and capacities Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation
- 32. 4.0 Actual ag spending in 2004, billion USD 3.5 Annual agspending required, billion USD (2008-15) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1. Invest in agriculture and improve smallholder productivity Source: Fan and Johnson (2009). Increase agric. spending, improve access to inputs and services, secure land rights, invest in rural infrastructure
- 33. 2. Keep trade open Eliminate harmful trade restrictions and refrain from imposing new ones to increase efficiency to stabilize prices Complete the Doha Round if tariffs increase to their current WTO limits (bound level): 11.5% loss of developing country exports US$353 billion loss in world welfare Potential costs of failed Doha Round could be high Source: Bouet and Laborde 2009.
- 34. 3. Promote productive social protection Scale up safety nets to: Secure and smooth food consumption Enable saving and investment Build and diversify assets Types of interventions e.g.: Conditional cash/food transfers Maternal and child health/nutrition programs Public works Insurance for the poor Programs depend on needs, capacities, and resources Source: Adato and Hoddinott 2008.
- 35. 4. Improve institutions and capacities Build up existing institutions and improve evidence-based policy making Increase gradual implementation after careful experimentation as in Asian reform process (esp. China) Increase investment in information gathering, monitoring, and evaluation Strengthen human and administrative capacities through increased investment in education and training
- 36. 5. Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation Annual expenditure to counteract climate change effects on child nutrition by 2050 (million 2000 US$) Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009.
- 38. Cropping and grazing pattern
- 40. Water allocation policy
- 42. Land use change
- 43. Agriculture and water price policies
- 44. Investment, subsidy, tax policies
- 45. Trade policies
- 46. Regional trade policies
- 47. Global climate policies
- 48. Global trading patternsClimate change Farm level Extreme weather events Basin level National level Demographic change Regional level Conflict and crises Global level GLOBAL CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SPACIAL SCALES Source: IFPRI, Ringler 2007.
- 49. To lessen negative impacts on food security: Integrate climate change into food security planning Consider food security when dealing with climate change We need to act now!
Hinweis der Redaktion
- A 1 meter rise is expected by the end of this century.Note that the Vietnam effect doesn’t take into increased salinization. Vietnamese scientists report that this is already becoming a problem, even before much sea level rise has taken place.
- - Negotiating outcomes should include agriculture in funds for adaptation. They should recognize the connection between pro-poor development policies for sustainable growth and climate-change adaption and support the important synergies between adaption and mitigation.- Funding should also be available for technology, infrastructure and institutional innovations, and global data collection. Global data collection efforts are not yet up to the task and we urgently need more spending on data collection, especially high resolution spatially-explicit data. Equally important is that these data are disseminated freely and without restrictions on their use.
- Our recommendation then is that agriculture be included in any mitigation funding modalities, with funds available for development and implementation of low-cost monitoring systems and that allow innovative payment mechanisms to address the characteristics of agriculture, especially in developing countries, where small producer predominate and legal institutions are not always fully effective. The principle of common by differentiated responsibilities implies that any funding should support mitigation of agricultural emissions by the poorest but as countries progress and their incomes rise, the burden of mitigation should be adjusted too.5) Linking communities to global markets - Establish regional centers for carbon trading, specialized business services and local intermediaries. Simplify standards for small-scale projects. Deal with permanence issue in carbon sequestration.
- As quoted by the WTO staff, examples of border measures are: Argentina has recently imposed non-automatic licensing requirements on products as auto parts, textiles, TVs, toys, shoes, and leather goods.India reportedly raised tariffs on some steel products in November 2008. On November 17, 2008, Mercosur members decided to raise their common external tariff, by five percentage points, on numerous items, like wine, peaches, dairy products, textiles, leather goods and wood furniture. - But it seems that this has not been really implementedOn November 26, 2008, Ecuador raised, between 5 and 20 percentage points, its tariffs on 940 products, including butter, turkey, crackers, caramels, blenders, cell phones, eyeglasses, sailboats, building materials, and transport equipment. Russia (a non WTO-Member) has announced its plans to raise import tariffs on cars and harvesters and continued to impose SPS measures. Ukraine‘s Parliament has been considering raising applied tariffs.In December 2008, Indonesia’s government implemented a regulation which states that imports on 500 individual tariff lines, including textiles, toys, and electronics will require special licenses granted conditionally upon the approval of domestic producers.In December 2008, the Republic of Korea announced that its tariffs on imports of crude oil will rise from 1 percent to 3 percent from March 2009.The European Union announced that it would re-introduce export subsidies for some dairy products from late-January 2009.Some measures emphasized by the WTO have been discussed at the domestic level in the beginning of 2008 -> Before the Crisis