Biden's Presidency will face numerous challenges from US copnservativs

1. Red Challenges to Biden's Blue Presidency
Shantanu Basu
The US Presidency for Joe Biden seems to be finally edging in his favour. However, Biden's
inheritance from Trump's tenure is formidable. First, is what is being increasingly called
Trumpism that is akin to the last stand of White supremacists versus non-Whites that are
steadily in numbers and could exceed America by 2050. Nearly half of America voted for
White supremacy to continue, a mass feeling something Biden's campaign never realized till
the aftermath of the Nov. 3 election. Faced with the open confrontation between Whites and
non-Whites, as it was for slavery supporters and progressive Whites no more than just about
160 years ago, Biden may have to yield, in substantial measure, to conservative demands, be
they related to abortion (recall Roe v. Wade), informal preference in employment
opportunities or restrictions on immigration and refusal to pay up for a state-funded universal
health care system.
Second, compounding Biden's challenges will be a Senate that is equally divided among
Blues and Reds. That will leave Biden completely dependent on the casting vote of his
deputy and Vice-President, Kamala Harris, for any legislation, appointments and
confirmations, etc.; and Harris fully realizes that she is Biden's anointed successor for the
Presidency in 2025. Harris would therefore invariably emerge stronger than Biden, something
that White America is unlikely to be comfortable.
Third, the US economy that stays afloat on the world's highest public and private debt and
fiscal deficit will demand Biden's first and foremost attention. Although, the first two years of
Trump witnessed some rise in employment and real rise in wages, after quite a few years, exit
from several multilateral trade agreements (like NAFTA), rising business bankruptcies, and
America's strategic withdrawal from global conflict spots, have not only diminished
America's trade but also wrought havoc on the country's vehicle and armament and war
accessories manufacturers, both major employers.
Fourth, notwithstanding persisting and rising distress of Americans, Biden is likely to face
stiff opposition in the Senate for any fiscal intervention from the federal budget to provide
relief for several more months to distressed US residents as also to return to Obama Care and
other high-profile social welfare legislation. Likewise, his efforts to bridge the highest-ever
fiscal deficit could meet Red opposition from the Senate. The Presidential veto has limits and,
if regularly used, could term Biden as an institution-breaker.
Fifth, Biden may also face stiff opposition in the Senate as he tries to purge Trump's
Administration and bring in his Secretaries and policy-making officials. That, in turn, could
potentially derail any plan of turning the clock back on several retrograde measures in the
international sphere, bilateral and multilateral, such as NAFTA, WHO, Paris Accord, etc. For
each step Biden takes, he will be judged in racial and economic terms, even accused for his
'socialism' by about half of America, all in preparation for the 2024 Presidential election.

2. Sixth, the only secular continuity may be Sino-US relations that assures cheap consumer
durables and sub-assemblies for American manufacturers and technology for China. Biden
can ill afford to quarantine China, something that Trump realized as he pushed ahead with the
recent $200 billion trade deal with China. Corporate American farmers that grow soya on fat
federal subsidies are loath to lose their Chinese piggery farms for their soya consumption as
are Chinese electronic companies, their US market. In turn, that could well condition Biden's
response to China in the Sino-Indian conflict, high in the Himalayas. The Blues with their
anti-overseas intervention stance could preclude any major American military involvement
with India beyond technical military aid (e.g. GIS) and support to the emerging Quad. There
too Biden would have to reckon with India's reticence to be drawn into a military alliance that
the Quad is shaping up to be. And, of course, India will remain an attractive military sales
destination for the Americans. Therefore, India would do well to hedge its risks in dealing
with America, such as by bargaining for de-sanctioning oil purchase rights from Iran (in lieu
of more expensive US shale oil), right of Indian Navy ships to use American naval bases in
the IOR, Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf and Horn of Africa, permitting larger access for Indian
pharmaceuticals and medical accessories, relocating of manufacturing plants of relatively
lower-tech manufacturers to India, permitting free sale of sophisticated pollution-control
equipment, etc. This could be in lieu of greater Indian involvement in the Quad, joining free
trade agreements in East and SE Asia, permitting USAF and USN to use Indian ports and air
bases for maintenance and training and allowing establishment of American military GIS
units etc. Of course, this would also mean re-engaging proactively with Russia, something
that the UPA Govt. must be credited for.
Seventh, the Blue commitment to democracy, social welfare and personal liberty will conflict
with Red perceptions of White supremacy, big business welfare and disdain for personal
freedom (e.g. denial of voting rights to felons in Florida) as being antithetical to business.
Treading this Great Divide has always been a daunting task for any Democratic President.
The Biden-Harris team will not come as glad tidings for many autocratic regimes and right
wing governments across the world. Harris and her ardent supporter, now re-elected
Congresswoman, Pramila Jayapal (the one with whom India's EAM S. Jaishankar refused to
meet even when Harris was chairing the Congressional Committee that our EAM was to have
been addressed and where Jayapal was an invitee) have had a strong anti-human rights
violations over the years. Both have also been more than critical of human rights violations in
India since 2014. Besides, PM Modi's open endorsement of Trump in Houston for a second
term did not go down well on the Hill, at least on the Blue chairs in Congress. Therefore,
India would have to tread several miles more than the Americans in rebuilding bridges.
Last, but not the least, Biden will attain the distinction of having become America's oldest
President, at 77 years. He may therefore be no more than a single-term President, a limitation
imposed by Providence that may not permit him the liberty to pursue a reformist agenda. The
pressure of work takes its toll and hopefully, Biden will measure up to the strains and
tensions of the Presidency for four arduous years. The near-equal political division of
America has only just commenced. This will gather strength over the next four years and
more; the Reds are far from defeated. Harris, an African-American, with an Indian mother

3. (though she has always claimed only African parentage that is not good news for American
Indians), will be viewed with far greater suspicion and be subjected to innumerable trials and
tribulations and showered with invective and abuse too. She is a tough woman but must have
reckoned with discrimination while living life as a non-White as she grew up in that country.
The problem is not so much with Harris as the most probable Blue candidate for the
Presidency in 2025, but the fact that Red America will leave no stone unturned to upend her
ambitions and preserve their supremacy. Echoes of the Trumpean tenure will reverberate
throughout America for long and gather strength as the White population rapidly declines.
(1187 words)
The author is a senior public policy analyst and commentator.