4. General Futures Studies Procedure
(Technology-Approach)
• gathering and interpreting information
1. Technology monitoring, technology
watch, technology alerts
• converting that information into usable intelligence
2. Technical intelligence and
competitive intelligence
• anticipating the direction and pace of changes3. Technology forecasting
• relating anticipated advances in technologies and
products to generate plans
4. Technology roadmapping
• anticipating the unintended, indirect, and delayed
effects of technological changes
5. Technology assessment, and forms
of impact assessment, including
strategic environmental assessment
• effecting development strategy, often involving
participatory mechanisms
6. Technology foresight, also national
and regional foresight
MIT (2008)
6. Environmental Scanning
major trends,
issues,
advancements,
events and ideasnewspapers,
magazines, Internet,
television,
conferences, reports,
including science-
fiction books
to analyze various
aspects of the project
and to decide on the key
issues to be examined
lone signals (individual factors that
might indicate change); landmark
events (in various areas of life);
forecasts of experts; and statistical
descriptions
9. Trend Analysis
observe and register
the past performance
of a certain factor and
project it into the future
quantitative, mainly based
on statistical data; and
qualitative
Reveal surprising
historical and current
data patterns
14. Simulation and Modelling
computer-based
tools developed to
represent reality
They facilitate the
understanding of connections
between factors and events
and the examination of their
dynamics
what would happen in
the real world if certain
conditions, imitated by
the model, developed.
15. Visioning
desirable futures
and emphasis to
values
images of the future
lead present behaviors,
guide choices and
influence decisions.
A vision is usually seen as a
positive, desirable image of the
future and can be described as a
compelling, inspiring statement…
Vision comprises
peoples values,
wishes, fears and
desires.
18. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
The key principle of this method is using and integrating different ways of knowing.
late 1980s
creating more-effective policies and strategies
19. Problem
Litany: Official public description of issue
Causes
Social, Economic,
Cultural
Social Science Analysis: Short-term historical facts
uncovered. Solution values
with structures
Discourse Analysis: World-
view solution often in
consciousness transformation
Worldviews
Metaphors and Myths Myth/Metaphor Analysis: Solution can
rarely be rationally designed
20. CLA
Litany
Social causes
Worldview
Myth
Newspaper headlines, superficial, common
public perceptions
STEEP analysis
Cultural/social/religious perspective or
worldview
Emotional, images or deep meanings
PublicUnconscious
SuperficialDeepMeaning
24. Morphological Analysis
identification of new
product opportunities
creation of a new
alternative, which
could fill the gaps
and meet any needs
to attain an overall
perspective of
possible solutions
25. Futures Wheel
powerful technique for drawing out opinions and ideas, but
is sensitive to underlying assumptions.
structured brainstorming identifying and packaging
26. Cross-impact Analysis
how perceptions of future events may interact with each other
most events and trends are interdependent in some way
analytical
approach
‘chains of causality: x affects y; y affects z’.
individuals
and
groups
elementary qualitative level, more complicated and intensive quantitative analysis
27. Back-view mirror Analysis
qualitative analysis of
the past using both
quantitative and
qualitative data.
any future-
oriented group
process has to
manage peoples’
difficulties in
thinking into the
future.
fears or lack
of experience
in futures
thinking
a new perspective
that looks to the past
instead of starting the
process in the
present.
28. Content Analysis
books, journals, newspapers, private
letters, publications of political parties,
reports, surveys, interviews, television,
Internet and so on
42. References
• Jerome C. Glenn, Futures Research Methodologies, 2009.
• John Ratcliffe, The Futures Academy, 2008.
• Ulf Pillkahn, Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy
Development, 2008.
• John Holmberg, Introduction to Future Studies, Barcelona, June 2011.
• Linda Groff and Paul Smoker, Introduction to Future Studies, State
University of California, 1999.
• Ritchey, General Morphological Analysis: A general method for non-
quantified modeling, 1998
• …