Turk Arap Forum- Istanbul, Turkey, June 2011

1. The New Champions
of the Capital World
Serkan ELDEN
Turkish Arab Economic Forum
Istanbul
April 26 & 27, 2011
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2. The New Champions of the Capital World
Source: http://www.ancient-wisdom.co.uk/pirireismap.htm
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3. World
EU
US China
Gateway
Turkey, Middle
East, Africa,
Russia/Central
Asia
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4. Population and GDP
EU
Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr)
CAGR CAGR
$16
0% 501 4%
469 $7.0
US 1990 2009 1990 2009
Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr)
GATEWAY
CAGR Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr)
CAGR ASI
ASIA1
1% $14
5% CAGR
249 307 Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr)
2% 1,4 CAGR $4.9
$5.8 6%
924 CAGR
1% 2,48
$1.5 1,98 CAGR
$6.2
11%
1990 2009 1990 2009
1990 2009 1990 2009 $0.7
1990 2009 1990 2009
1Asiaincludes China and India
Source: IMF, World Bank, January 2011. CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate.
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5. Foreign Direct Investment - Net Inflows (US $Bn)
EU
CAGR
$221
3%
US $165
CAGR
-9%
$321
2000 2009
ASI
ASIA1
$134
GATEWAY
CAGR
CAGR $112
12%
2000 2009 25%
$102
$41
$14
2000 2009
2000 2009
1Asia includes China and India
Source: Eurostat, World Bank. January 2011. CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate.
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6. World Wealth
EU
HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr)
AMERICAS 15% 3.0 7% 9.5
HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr)
2.6 8.9
20% 34%
3.6 17.4 ASI
ASIA
3.0
13.0 HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr)
2004 2009 2004 2009
36% 37%
3.0
9.7
2.2 7.1
2004 2009 2004 2009
GATEWAY1
HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr)
2004 2009 2004 2009
50%
33% 1.5
0.4
0.3 1.0
2004 2009 2004 2009
1Gateway Region includes Middle East
Source: World Wealth Report 2007 and 2010 of Capgemini and Merrill Lynch. HNWI – High Net Worth Individual.
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7. Sovereign Wealth Funds
Regional - 20101
Regional Top 10 Largest - US $bn, 20102
Qatar 62
Libya 65
Americas Other, 193
Hong Kong
4% 2% 203
Kuwait
Russia 220
Asia, Singapore 333
Europe, 41% 395
Norway
19% 436
Saudi Arabia
China 733
United Arab Emirates 738
0 500 1000
Gateway,
34% Top 10 Largest - US $bn, 20073
Russia 32
Alaska 35
Australia 40
Kuwait 70
Saudi Arabia 300
China 300
Norway 312
Singapore 430
United Arab Emirates 875
1Gateway
0 500 1000
Region includes MENA and Africa; Americas include North and Latin America. Source: PE Report of Preqin, 2011.
2Source: Getmoney.com, January 2010.
3Source: http://chenesseau.net/4.html.
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8. TURKEY: A Gateway Destination in the Gateway Region
GDP
2000 2010
US$ 266 bn US$ 729 bn
FDI (NET INFLOWS)
FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME
2000 2010
2000 2010
US$ 0.9 bn US$ 7.0 bn
116
US$ 116 bn US$ 299 bn
M&A TRANSACTIONS
2002 2010
US$ 0.6 bn US$ 26.4 bn
Source: IMF Database, World Bank Database; EMPEA Database, December 2008; Ernst & Young M&A Transactions Report 2010; Turkish Statistical
Institute Database, UNCTAD Global Investment Trends Monitor Report, January 17, 2010.
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9. TURKEY: Developing Relations With the Middle East
FDI (NET INFLOWS) FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME
(US$ mn) (US$ bn)
245
CAGR CAGR 28.7
74% 23%
6.6
5
2002 2009 2002 2009
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute Database. January 2011.
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10. TURKEY: In The Flow of a Major Global Resource Basin
Gateway Region as a % of Total Global Resources 1
AGRICULTURAL
ENERGY MINING
GOODS
Gateway Region Oil Natural Gas Coal Gold Platinum Copper Phosphate Wheat Cotton
MENA 64.7% 45.8% 0.2% 1.1% NA 1.5% 47.2% 7.1% 3.5%
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.1% 3.5% 2.9% 21.1% 88.7% 7.4% 10.5% 1.0% 5.9%
Russia/FSU 10.0% 30.7% 26.9% 17.9% 8.7% 7.3% 1.3% 15.3% 7.3%
Total 79.8% 79.6% 30.9% 40.1% 97.5% 16.3% 59.0% 23.4% 16.7%
Turkey as a major oil & gas transit country 2
PER DAY OIL NATURAL GAS
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline ~ 2730 barrels
Iraq-Turkey Pipelines ~457 barrels
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Pipeline 10-14 mn m3
Iran –Turkey Pipeline ~18 mn m3
Russia-Turkey Pipelines ~54mn m3
Turkey- Europe Pipelines ~43 mn m3
1 Source:radikal.com.tr , milliyet.com.tr, arsiv.ntvmsnbc.com, ilgazetesi.com.tr, alternaturk.org, zaman.com.tr.
2 Source:BP Energy Statistical Review, June 2009, USGS Commodity Statistics and Information, December 2008, Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations, December 2008.
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11. TURKEY & MIDDLE EAST: Creating Regional Champions
with M&A – Private Equity
M&A Volume (US$ bn) PE Investment Volume (US$ bn)
5.7
39.4 5.4
37.2
34.0
30.6
2.7
2.2
9.2
0.9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: EMPEA Database, 2010; Ernst & Young M&A Transactions Report 2010.
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12. TURKEY & MIDDLE EAST: A Fruitful Relationship
THANK YOU
serkan.elden@pinebridge.com
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