4. Fed Funds RateFed Funds Rate
LAS MALAS NOTI CI AS DE AFUERA:
2) LA RESERVA FEDERAL…
5. LAS MALAS NOTI CI AS DE AFUERA:
2) LA RESERVA FEDERAL…
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fed Funds Rate
Fed Funds Effective Rate Fed Futures Curve
Fed Funds Rate
6. !4%$
!2%$
0%$
2%$
4%$
6%$
8%$
10%$
2003$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$ 2014$ 2015$ 2016$
Brazil Real GDP
Variacion % interanual
Brazil$Real$Gdp$YoY$ GDP$Forecasts$
Promedio$2003!2015$=$3.2%$
$
Fuente:'IBGE'
$
LAS MALAS NOTI CI AS DE AFUERA:
3) BRASI L…
7. 95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
175
Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
Tipo de Cambio Nominal
Septiembre 2014 = 100
BRL CLP MXN COP EUR ARS
LAS MALAS NOTI CI AS DE AFUERA:
4) LA RECUPERACI ÓN DEL DÓLAR
8. 4.9
1.0
0.8
1.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
International Reserves
USD, 2003-2005 = 1
Argentina Venezuela LATAM (Ex Venezuela and Argentina)
LA BONANZA QUE OTROS APROVECHARON
4.9$
0$
1$
2$
3$
4$
5$
6$
2003$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$ 2014$ 2015$
Reservas Internacionales
USD, 2003-2005 = 1
LATAM$(Ex$Venezuela$and$Argen>na)$
LA BONANZA QUE OTROS APROVECHARON
9. 4.9
1.0
0.8
1.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
International Reserves
USD, 2003-2005 = 1
Argentina Venezuela LATAM (Ex Venezuela and Argentina)
LA BONANZA QUE OTROS APROVECHARON
0.8$
4.9$
0$
1$
2$
3$
4$
5$
6$
2003$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$ 2014$ 2015$
Reservas Internacionales
USD, 2003-2005 = 1
Venezuela$ LATAM$(Ex$Venezuela$and$Argen>na)$
LA BONANZA QUE OTROS APROVECHARON
10. 4.9
1.0
0.8
1.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
International Reserves
USD, 2003-2005 = 1
Argentina Venezuela LATAM (Ex Venezuela and Argentina)
LA BONANZA QUE OTROS APROVECHARON
Reservas Internacionales
USD, 2003-2005 = 1
LA BONANZA QUE OTROS APROVECHARON
11. 4.9
1.0
0.8
1.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
International Reserves
USD, 2003-2005 = 1
Argentina Venezuela LATAM (Ex Venezuela and Argentina)
LA BONANZA QUE OTROS APROVECHARON
Reservas Internacionales
USD, 2003-2005 = 1
LA BONANZA QUE OTROS APROVECHARON
20. Jun-15
-18%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Resultado primario (como % de los ingresos corrientes sin rentas de la prop.)
(promedio de 12 meses)
Resultado Primario
LOS DESEQUI LI BRI OS QUE QUEDAN:
2) DESCALABRO FI SCAL…
21. 45,4%
-12,8%
Ago-15
2,9%
35,2%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Factores de expansión de la base monetaria
Variación % interanual
compra de divisas
sector financiero
sector público
total
La diferencia se debe a los "otros factores" consignados en las estadísticas del BCRA.
LOS DESEQUI LI BRI OS QUE QUEDAN:
3) DESCALABRO MONETARI O
22. LOS DESEQUI LI BRI OS QUE QUEDAN:
4) DELI CADA SI TUACI ÓN SOCI AL
25. DOS REFLEXI ONES BASTANTE OBVI AS:
2) LA I NFLACI ÓN EN DÓLARES MATÓ A LAS ECONOMÍ AS REGI ONALES
156.83
108.40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
IPC en dólares
Diciembre 2001 = 100
IPC/TC Oficial IPC/CCL
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36. 0%#
20%#
40%#
60%#
80%#
100%#
120%#
Dec,13# Mar,14# Jun,14# Sep,14# Dec,14# Mar,15# Jun,15# Sep,15# Dec,15# Mar,16# Jun,16# Sep,16# Dec,16#
Brecha Cambiaria
Brecha# FPV# Cambiemos#
DOS RECORRI DOS MUY DI FERENTES EN 2016:
1) BRECHA CAMBI ARI A
37. 0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
Dec-13# Mar-14# Jun-14# Sep-14# Dec-14# Mar-15# Jun-15# Sep-15# Dec-15# Mar-16# Jun-16# Sep-16# Dec-16#
Inflación
(% interanual)
Inflación# FPV# Cambiemos#
DOS RECORRI DOS MUY DI FERENTES EN 2016:
2) I NFLACI ÓN
38. TCR Agro (Ex Soja)
100 = Promedio 1992-2001
DOS RECORRI DOS MUY DI FERENTES EN 2016:
3) DÓLAR AGRO ( NETO DE RETENCI ONES)
39. !3%$
!2%$
!1%$
0%$
1%$
2%$
3%$
4%$
5%$
6%$
Mar!13$ Jun!13$ Sep!13$ Dec!13$ Mar!14$ Jun!14$ Sep!14$ Dec!14$ Mar!15$ Jun!15$ Sep!15$ Dec!15$ Mar!16$ Jun!16$ Sep!16$ Dec!16$
Actividad Económica
PBI Real, Variación % interanual
PBI$ FPV$ Cambiemos$
DOS RECORRI DOS MUY DI FERENTES EN 2016:
4) ACTI VI DAD ECONÓMI CA
47. $ 100.54
$ 50.00
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
5Y t-notes DICY (option 1) PARY (option 2) Griesa
ARGT '03 vs UST '03 @ issuance
(An investment exercise, as of August 26th, 2015)
Interest Received
Market value of original investment
US Dollars (per $100 originally invested)
150
HOLDOUTS
48. $ 100.54
$ 57.59 $ 67.51
$ 50.00
$ 50.00
$ 48.45
$ 19.03
$ 19.03
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
5Y t-notes DICY (option 1) PARY (option 2) Griesa
ARGT '03 vs UST '03 @ issuance
(An investment exercise, as of August 26th, 2015)
GDP coupon payments
Interest Received
Market value of original investment
US Dollars (per $100 originally invested)
150
127 135
TENDERED in 2005
HOLDOUTS
49. $ 100.54
$ 57.59 $ 67.51
$103.89
$295.34
$ 50.00
$ 50.00
$ 48.45
$27.90
$ 19.03
$ 19.03
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
5Y t-notes DICY (option 1) PARY (option 2) Griesa
ARGT '03 vs UST '03 @ issuance
(An investment exercise, as of August 26th, 2015)
GDP coupon payments
Interest Received
Legal Charges
Market value of original investment
US Dollars (per $100 originally invested)
150
127 135
427
TENDERED in 2005
UNTENDERED
HOLDOUTS
51. 2.99%
5.23% 5.39%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
5Y t-notes DICY PARY
Internal Rate of Return
(An investment exercise, as of August 26th, 2015)
TENDERED in 2005
* each coupon is reinvested
in the same instrument
that delivered it
HOLDOUTS
52. 2.99%
5.23% 5.39%
10.69%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
5Y t-notes DICY PARY Griesa
Internal Rate of Return
(An investment exercise, as of August 26th, 2015)
TENDERED in 2005
UNTENDERED
* each coupon is reinvested
in the same instrument
that delivered it
HOLDOUTS
53. 2.99%
4.90% 5.23% 5.39%
10.69%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
5Y t-notes S&P 500 DICY PARY Griesa
Internal Rate of Return
(An investment exercise, as of August 26th, 2015)
TENDERED in 2005
UNTENDERED
* each coupon is reinvested
in the same instrument
that delivered it
HOLDOUTS
54. 2.99%
4.90% 5.23% 5.39%
6.94%
10.69%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
5Y t-notes S&P 500 DICY PARY Blackrock Global
Allocation
Griesa
Internal Rate of Return
(An investment exercise, as of August 26th, 2015)
TENDERED in 2005
UNTENDERED
* each coupon is reinvested
in the same instrument
that delivered it
HOLDOUTS