4. 4
$-
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
D-02 D-03 D-04 D-05 D-06 D-07 D-08 D-09 D-10 D-11 D-12 D-13 D-14 D-15 D-16 D-17 D-18 D-19
Trillions
Fed. ECB BoJ
2020 brought unprecedent levels of money
printing
Source: FRED as of 11/16/20
“We’re not out of ammunition by a long shot….there’s really no limit to what we
can do with these lending programs that we have.”
— Fed Chairman Jerome Powell 5.17.20
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
5. 5
Globally, GDP and interest rates plummeted
in the wake of COVID-19’s impact
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
1/31/2019
5/31/2019
9/30/2019
1/31/2020
5/31/2020
9/30/2020
Central bank interest rates
United
States
United
Kingdom
European
Union
Japan
China
Switzerland-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
United
StatesUnited
KingdomEuropean
U
nion
Japan
China
Sw
itzerland
2019 2020
Source: IMF as of 11/16/20
§ COVID-19 accelerated the breakdown of monetary
policy, which prompted a more serious consideration of
using negative rates to bolster the economy
§ The use of negative interest rates is becoming
increasingly less taboo – China just issued their first debt
with negative rates
§ Economic growth in 2020 has hit a multi-year low in
China and the United States
§ Compared to 2019, where the global economy as a
whole rose by just 2.4%, 2020 levels are at its
lowest since the 2009 financial crash
Real GDP % change from preceding year
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
6. 6
U.S. saw historic unemployment rates as the
economy came to a halt
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Consumer Price Index and Unemployment Rate
Source: FRED as of 11/16/20, IMF as of 10/20/20
§ Unemployment rate reached historic levels as the economy came to a halt for an extended period of
time
§ While growth is expected in 2021, coronavirus arrived amid the longest expansion in modern American
history—as the economy had grown for more than 11 years and added jobs for 113 straight months
1970 20201980 1990 2000 2010
Unemployment
CPI
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
7. 7
Source: Axios as of 10/20/20
Trust in the federal reserve continued to drop
50%
40%
30%
20%
50% 60% 70% 80%
Bachelor’s
Degree
50 to 64 years
Over 65 years old
Some
College
$50k plus
High school
or less
18 to 29 years old
Under $50k
30 to 49 years old
A great deal,
fair amount of
trust
Knowledge of the Fed and its role
On average, only ~34% of Americans have a
fair amount of trust in the federal reserve
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
8. 8
Source: Yahoo Finance as of 11/12/20.
Note: Price data is composed of the following: Invesco 1-30 Year Laddered Treasury ETF (PLW), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Markit iBoxx
USD Liquid Investment Grade Bond ETF (LQD), Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (JNK), iShares Russell 3000 Index
ETF (IWV), iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG), iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG).
Since de-leveraging, bitcoin outperformed
and decoupled from equities and risk assets
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1/1/2020
2/1/2020
3/1/2020
4/1/2020
5/1/2020
6/1/2020
7/1/2020
8/1/2020
9/1/2020
10/1/2020
11/1/2020
Bitcoin
US Treasuries
Gold
Investment Grade Bonds
US Equities
Emerging Markets
High Yield Bonds
Commodities
157% YTD
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
10. 10
Bitcoin’s thesis matures, accelerating amid
COVID-19 backdrop
Diversified
Investors
On-Ramps
§ PayPal, Square and fintech companies provide bitcoin onramps
for millions of new users
§ Global exchange infrastructure continues to develop, with
stablecoins playing a key role in on / off ramps
Macro
§ COVID-19 initiated unprecedented macro policy and currency
printing, increasing the risks of future inflation
§ Geopolitical tensions escalated, increasing the importance of
censorship resistant platforms
Institutional
Growth
§ Public companies, like Square, buy bitcoin as a part of treasury
strategy, treating bitcoin as a reserve asset
§ Institutional investors, like Paul Tudor Jones, publicly announce
their bitcoin positions
§ Bitcoin options and CME bitcoin futures hit all time highs
§ Growth of crypto-native credit exploded, tightening spreads
and expanding liquidity
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
11. 11
Bitcoin remains king, reaching new market cap
all time highs
Libertarians /
Crypto
Enthusiasts
Early
Adopters
Retail
Investors
Institutions+
Source: CoinMetrics as of 12/7/20
Proof of
concept for
e-money
Peer-to-peer
payments
Censorship-
resistant store of
value
Safe haven
asset
Digital gold
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
7/18/10 7/18/11 7/18/12 7/18/13 7/18/14 7/18/15 7/18/16 7/18/17 7/18/18 7/18/19 7/18/20
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
12. 12
The evolution of bitcoin’s infrastructure is
shifting quickly to institutional grade
ProjectEarly Retail ProjectInstitutional & Fintech
2009-2017 2018 - Present
Exchanges & Retail Wallets
Self Custody Solutions
Payment Applications
Trading & Analytics
Prime Brokerage Stack
Crypto-native Credit
Derivatives & Options
Investment Products
Crossover Fintech products
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
13. 13
Public companies purchase bitcoin as a part of
their reserve strategy
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Microstrategy Galaxy Digital
Holdings
Square Hut 8 Mining Corp Voyager Digital
LTD
Riot Blockchain
Millions
Public Company Bitcoin Purchases (Selection)
bitcoin purchase present value
Source: Bitcointreasuries.org as of 12/7/20. Microstrategy includes recent raise of $400M to buy more bitcoin
We believe that bitcoin has the potential to be a more ubiquitous currency in the
future. As it grows in adoption, we intend to learn and participate in a disciplined
way. For a company that is building products based on a more inclusive future, this
investment is a step on that journey.
- Square
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
14. 14
Increase in sophisticated investor tools like
futures points to maturing markets
§ The growth of bitcoin futures markets points to an increase in ability to hedge exposure, particularly for
traders and miners who are very sensitive to price volatility. The more sophisticated tools in the bitcoin
market, the greater capital inflows the markets can accommodate
§ CME, a highly-regulated exchange, saw all time highs for bitcoin futures open interest. The prominence of
these onshore exchanges and growing liquidity supports the potential for a bitcoin ETF, as markets are
heavily surveilled and considered to be reliable
Source: Skew Analytics
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
15. 15
Growth of crypto-native credit reaches all time
highs
§ With an increase in
crypto-native credit,
market makers, funds
and traders can seek
out greater leverage
with capital efficiencies
§ Providers like Genesis
are quickly growing
their active loans,
leading to tighter
spreads, greater
convenience and
capital efficiencies
§ Although crypto-credit
markets are early, the
growth supports the
institutional
acceleration of bitcoin
Active Loans of Genesis Global Trading
Source: The Block
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
17. 17
An update on ETH 2.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
5
10
15
20
1/1/20 2/1/20 3/1/20 4/1/20 5/1/20 6/1/20 7/1/20 8/1/20 9/1/20 10/1/20 11/1/20
Millions
Ethereum Price & Fees, 2020
Total Fees Price
§ ETH 2.0 is in the transition phase to Proof of Stake, with the beacon chain launched, followed by the
shard chains in 2021
§ With ETH 2.0 underway, the scaling conversation shifted to developments with rollups and other
scaling solutions
§ Projects like Optimism, Matter Labs and other L2 scaling solutions gained momentum as the
community looked for immediate scaling in the face of rising gas prices
Source: CoinMetrics
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
18. 18
Ethereum’s investment case and ecosystem
matured since 2017
2017 2020
ICO Era DeFi Tokens Era
§ Characterized by utility tokens
with obscure means of value
creation
§ ICOs raised billions of dollars
without any product in attempt to
bootstrap and fund networks
§ Market struggled to prove out the
NASDAQ 2.0 model at scale
§ Characterized by well-defined
tokens with traditional value capture
mechanisms
§ DeFi validated bootstrapping on
Ethereum, with token distributions
creating user owned networks
§ Stablecoins and major financial
platforms are predominantly
secured by the Ethereum blockchain
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
19. 19
Ethereum & bitcoin daily settlement values
crossed briefly, as transactions grew
*Ethereum Settlement Value includes ETH and major ERC-20 Tokens
Source: Digital Asset Data
Bitcoin
Ethereum
TransactionTransferValue(30-DRollingAverage)
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
20. 20
DeFi found early product market fit across
many categories, with TVL crossing $13B
§ Lending and
decentralized
exchanges were the
breakout DeFi
categories of 2020
§ Six protocols have over
$1B in total value locked
§ The ability to apply
composability in new
categories expanded as
the “building blocks” of
DeFi were established
§ Rapid experimentation
led to the rise of
projects like Yearn.
Finance, Curve and
more
Source: Digital Asset Data
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
21. 21
DeFi Protocols vs Traditional Fintech
§ Assets move through
membership-based messaging
networks that rely on extensive
intermediation (limited hours,
high latency + manual error)
§ Infrastructure is closed and
proprietary
§ High compliance burden
§ New entrants require licenses
and/or partnerships with banks
§ Corporations own the services +
extract value from users
§ Assets move through open, secure
settlement networks that run 24/7
§ Infrastructure is open source +
open liquidity
§ Protocols are global and agnostic
to jurisdictional regulations à
compliance is handled at the
application layer
§ Startup costs are low
§ Users own the services + capture
value
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
22. 22
The open source fintech stack
Settlement Layer
Fungible Asset Standard
Asset Layer
Protocol Layer
Native Protocol Asset
(ETH)
Non-Fungible Asset Standard
Exchange Lending Derivatives Insurance
App Layer
ERC20 ERC721
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
23. 23
What’s changed in 2020?
Tokenomics
User
Improvements
§ User experience improvements lead to greater
adoption, from base protocol to aggregator layers
§ Early protocols have been “battle-tested”
Ownership
Distribution
§ Ownership is distributed to users using mechanisms
like yield farming and liquidity mining to distribute
tokens
Innovative
Landscape
§ Protocol tokens launched with existing communities,
providing cash flows and governance rights
§ Distributed ownership tested on a larger scale
§ Composability realized as many “building blocks” were defined
across lending, exchange, stablecoins and more
§ The community experimented rapidly with liquidity mining,
forked protocols and token distribution methods
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
24. 24
Liquidity mining launched a new era of
community-based liquidity
Token issuer or exchange
provides rewards
Users provide liquidity with
idle crypto assets
Project Users
Bootstrap liquidity
Onboard new users
Earn Yield
Participate in governance
Protocol Users
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
25. 25
AMMs find product market fit, with Uniswap
surpassing Coinbase daily exchange volumes
2017-18 2020
$1 $16
$54
$211
$485
$201
$294
$379
$297 $321
$223
$333
$680
$473
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
Average Daily Exchange Volume
Uniswap Coinbase
Source: Dune, Digital Asset Data
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
26. 26
Composability allows for
quicker product
innovation
Ability to fork and use
open source standards
Liquidity mining
incentivizes growth and
user participation
AMMs provide a venue to
bootstrap networks with
limited liquidity
Liquidity providers play
important role
Tokens are listed on
centralized and
decentralized exchanges
Protocols transition to
partial or full community
governance models
Long term sustainability &
community development
The DeFi token lifecycle evolved from ideation
to token maturity
MaturityIssuanceIdeation & Innovation
1 2 3
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
27. 27
Risks compound across protocols and users,
new solutions are working to address
Risks
Technical Risk
The risk that there’s a bug that produces unintended consequences and potentially
losses for users
Cascading Failures The effects of the failure in one protocol would reverberate through other protocols
Governance Risk
Governance rights could, in theory, also be used against the protocol (or, at least,
not in its best interests)
Governance Token
Risk
The value accrual method for these governance tokens is unproven and it is
unknown to what extent these protocols/applications will be able to subsequently
implement additional fees that accrue to governance holders
Compensation Risk
It’s not known if liquidity providers are being over- or under-compensated for
bootstrapping liquidity – primarily because it’s not yet known to what extent this
subsidized activity will/can translate to strictly organic activity
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
29. 29
Stablecoins surged 500%, reaching a supply
issuance of $23B
§ There are currently $23 billion of stablecoins in circulation—compared to $31 billion PayPal dollars in
existence. Stablecoins are quickly growing to become one of the most used payment networks in the
world
§ Stablecoin’s daily settlement value increased over 300% as DeFi and derivative markets experienced
substantial growth
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
1/1/20 4/1/20 7/1/20 10/1/20
Billions
Stablecoin Supply Issuance
Source: Digital Asset Data
Stablecoin Rolling 30-day Average Settlement
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
30. 30
Tether continues to dominate the market with
~80% market share
Source: Digital Asset Data
Tether
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
31. 31
What changed in 2020?
DeFi
§ Liquidity mining and defi growth caused stablecoins like
USDC and Dai to balloon in issuance
§ Users of defi continue to trade, collateralize and pay using
stablecoins
USD Demand
§ Macro conditions and COVID-19 increased demand
for the US dollar, particularly in the spring; stablecoins
provided an avenue for exposure
Derivatives
Growth
§ Accelerated usage of stablecoins as collateral in
a rapidly growing derivatives market
Exchange
Infrastructure
§ Abundant global infrastructure and wallets make it
possible to handle surge in stablecoin issuance and
usage
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
32. 32
Stablecoin sector is building out new
infrastructure and use cases
Stablecoins
Infrastructure Payments / Remittances
Stablecoin AMMs / DeFi Projects
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
33. 33
Stablecoins account for 40% of daily settlement
value on BTC and ETH
Public Blockchains Are Dollarizing
Source: Digital Asset Data
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
34. 34
CBDCs around the world gain momentum
China tested
DCEP, with over
4M transactions
ECB begins exploring
CBDC, making a decision
in Jan 2021
Fed Powell says CBDC
could improve US
Payments
Digital dollar project
announced
Bahamas launches Sand
Dollar CBDC
Japan exploring
CBDC seriously
ResearchPilot DevelopmentLaunched Cancelled
Source: CBDC Tracker
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
36. 36
Exchange volumes start to spike, Binance
remains market leader
Crypto Exchange Volumes
Offshore exchange, Binance, continues to be the market
leader in global crypto exchange volumes
Source: The Block
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
37. 37
Prime brokerage stack matures with fully
fledged offerings
Staking Custody Execution Lending Settlement
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
38. 38
Centralized finance preliminarily leans into
DeFi, but it remains early
FTX announced Serum, their own decentralized
exchange built on the Solana chain
Binance introduced a $100M fund to support
DeFi projects on Binance Smart Chain
Coinbase quickly listed DeFi tokens with
rumors of a token launching platform underway
Jump Capital backed Serum, and started
funding more DeFi startups through the DeFi
Alliance
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
39. 39
Impending M&A and IPO activity builds as
prime brokerage market consolidates
Acquirer Acquisition Suggested Value Sub-Sector
Binance CoinMarketCap $400M Analytics / Retail
FTX Exchange Blockfolio $150M Retail
Coinbase Tagomi ~$75M Inst’l Prime Brokerage
Galaxy Digital
Drawbridge Lending
& Blue Fire Capital
Undisclosed Lending / Inst’l
DCG Luno Wallet Undisclosed Retail
Voyager Digital Circle Invest Undisclosed Retail
Genesis Trading Vo1t Undisclosed Custody
Coinbase Xapo (Custody) Undisclosed Custody
Kraken
Circle – OTC,
BitTrade
Undisclosed OTC / Trading
BitGo Harbor Undisclosed Tokenization
Market entering early M&A phase as the race to become a
prime broker accelerated
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
41. 41
Regulatory landscape advances in key areas
Token
Issuance
§ Key cases on token issuance decided: Telegram & Kik
§ The prototypical “2017 ICO” is officially dead
§ Federal judicial decisions provide template for token protocols
that are actually decentralized
Token
Markets
§ “Offshore” exchanges & markets, formerly considered
unregulated, face US civil and criminal actions
§ Actions against bad actors open opportunities for *regulated*
market participants to move forward
Global
Outlook
§ Governments increasingly contemplate CBDCs and perhaps the
inevitability of private stablecoin solutions
§ India strikes down crypto ban, nations move to regulate crypto
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
42. 42
Major regulatory events timeline
January June December
SEC continues
to reject
Bitcoin ETF
Mar 2020
Abra settles with CFTC /
SEC over digital asset
swap violation
Jul 2020
OCC grants banks
authority to
custody crypto
Jul 2020
BitMEX charged
by CFTC, DOJ
Oct 2020
John McAfee sued
by SEC for ICO
Promotions
Oct 2020
SEC grants no-action letter to
certain ATD Broker-Dealers
Sept 2020
Engigma settles with
SEC over $45M ICO
Feb 2020
NYDFS grants
BitLicense to ErisX
May 2020
India Supreme
Court Strikes Down
Crypto Ban
Mar 2020
Salt Lending hit with cease-and-
desist over $47M ICO
Sept 2020
TOKEN ISSUANCE
TOKEN MARKETS
OTHER
Source: FinCEN, SEC, Blockchain Capital Analysis
SEC wins summary
judgment against Kik
Sept 2020
SEC Commissioner Peirce
proposes token safe harbor
April 2020
SEC wins preliminary
injunction against Telegram
March 2020
SEC grants no-action
letter to IMVU token
Nov 2020
Securitize gets SEC/FINRA
approval for digital assets
ATS & Broker-Dealer
Oct 2020
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
43. 43
ICO regulation ultimately benefits non-token-
issuing industry service providers
§ Centralized issuers of tokens like Kik
and Telegram conclusively disfavored
§ Federal courts reaffirm that (a) using
token sale proceeds to develop
network or protocol, and (b) issuing
tokens with no significant use case are
both hallmarks of an investment
contract
§ However, tokens themselves post-
issuance may not represent securities
§ Providers servicing already
decentralized ecosystems (e.g., Bitcoin,
Ethereum) have enjoyed greater
opportunities to work alongside
existing regulatory frameworks and
consolidate market share
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
44. 44
The rise of DeFi presents new regulatory
considerations for token issuance
DeFi’s remedy – literal decentralization
§ Protocols built / in use before token is issued
§ Tokens generated as compensation for protocol participation – not sold
§ Token value primarily resides in governing rights over the protocol
§ Users act as shareholders AND directors
Genuinely decentralized protocols can avoid the the ’Cardinal Sins’ of
token issuance:
Using proceeds to
build network
Promising increase
in token value
Promoting token
secondary trading
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
45. 45
…result in enforcement
Unregulated token market concerns long expressed by regulators…
Dark and manipulated markets receive US
regulatory reckoning
§ Commodities markets, like BitMEX, are susceptible to market manipulation and conflicts of interest;
no efforts to comply with US regulations, including KYC/AML requirements
§ Coin mixing services, like Helix, allow users to transfer value without knowing whether the “money”
was used to facilitate or obfuscate criminal activity
§ CFTC and FinCEN finally took civil action; DOJ filed criminal charges
BitMEX Action
§ “Bad Actor” designation
§ Disgorgement
§ Contract rescission
§ Restitution
§ Civil penalties
Helix / Ninja Coin Action
§ Alleged to have flouted
regulations
§ Alleged to have actively aided
cybercriminals
§ $60 million penalty (but could
have been $210 million)
Criminal Liability
§ BitMEX: counts of violating and
conspiracy to violate the BSA
§ Helix: unlicensed money trans. &
conspiracy to launder money
§ Founders indicted and arrested or
“at large”
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
46. 46
Regulators begin to favor regulated and
“regulator-friendly” entities
Broker/Dealers get no-action letter
for simplified ATS execution of
digital asset securities
Regulated exchanges expand
market share and product offerings
on and offshore
Building blockchain analytics for law
enforcement and financial institutions
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
47. 47
Decentralization… the final frontier of digital
asset regulation?
Idyllic decentralized protocols are ‘Software, not a Service’
§ DeFi markets are properly enabled where decentralized users interact with
each other via smart contract, not central intermediary
§ Smart contracts, critically, must be open source software and not subject to
ongoing technical or governance control of developers
§ At minimum, developers should not have ability to “turn the protocol off”
§ By design, DeFi protocols should make protocol users also protocol
governors
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
48. 48
The global conversation primarily revolves
around CBDCs and stablecoins
Major Events Stance
China
China launches pilot of DCEP, their central bank
digital currency
China launched their blockchain ecosystem, BSN
Pro-blockchain
Anti decentralized, censorship
resistant technologies
Hong Kong SFC opens path for crypto exchanges to be regulated Cautiously positive sentiment
UK UK regulates crypto derivative products, announces
upcoming stablecoin guidance
Cautiously positive sentiment
EU EU explores CBDC designs and stablecoin regulation,
ECB pushes forward on a digital Euro
Proactive stance acknowledges the
future of digital currencies
India Supreme court strikes down crypto ban on banks Cautiously positive sentiment
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
50. 50
Market adoption makes progress across key
segments
2011 2019 2030+
Fringe
Mainstream
Retail Users
Institutions
Governments
2020
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
51. 51
Phase 1
Learning
Phase 2
Conviction
Phase 3
Adoption
Bitcoin’s perception and awareness remains
high across U.S. adults
Awareness Familiarity Perception Conviction Preference Rates Purchase Propensity Owners / Users
Source: Blockchain Capital Harris Poll Survey
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
52. 52
Phase 1
Learning
Phase 2
Conviction
Phase 3
Adoption
38% of people expect bitcoin to exist longer
than the euro – in strongly growing conviction
Awareness Familiarity Perception Conviction Preference Rates Purchase Propensity
Source: Blockchain Capital Harris Poll Survey
Owners / Users
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
53. 53
Phase 1
Learning
Phase 2
Conviction
Phase 3
Adoption
Estimates suggest there are ~100M worldwide
crypto users with major onramps incoming
Awareness Familiarity Perception Conviction Preference Rates Purchase Propensity
45
139
191
5
35
101
0
50
100
150
200
250
2016 2018 2020
Lower Bound Estimate of Total Crypto Asset Users & Accounts, In Millions
Total Number of Accounts Total Number of Users
Source: Cambridge Crypto Asset Benchmarking Report
Owners / Users
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
54. 54
MetaMask adoption showcases Ethereum &
DeFi’s growing presence with 1M active users
MetaMask Monthly Active Users
Source: Metamask
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
55. 55
Retail bitcoin interest filtering in through
fintech gateways
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
11/22/15
5/22/16
11/22/16
5/22/17
11/22/17
5/22/18
11/22/18
5/22/19
11/22/19
5/22/20
Google Search Trends
Cash App Bitcoin Robinhood Bitcoin PayPal Bitcoin
§ PayPal rolled out crypto buy-and-sell to
over 300M users
§ Square saw record bitcoin volumes and
revenues
§ eToro bolstered its crypto offerings with
staking rewards and asset expansion
§ SoFi received NYBitlicense, clearing the
way for crypto trading services
§ Revolut turned on crypto services across
the worldSource: Google Search
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
57. 57
Revisiting 2020’s Bold Predictions
1. A crypto company is acquired for more than $500m
2. Value locked in DeFi hits $5B
3. In the face of competition from China, Libra will receive the green light for a dollar-backed
stablecoin
4. A federal judge rules against the SEC in a crypto case
5. Not a single 2020 L1 network launch achieves "top 10” status, as defined by network value
6. USDC sees 300%+ growth (as measured by transaction value, issuance, market cap
and trading volume)
7. Demand for bitcoin transactions drives fees to exceed $100, catalyzing scaling up the stack
8. FinCEN / FATF hold stablecoins to a stricter standard than paper cash by requiring broad
application of the travel rule
9. KYC / AML becomes the primary regulatory battleground for DeFi
10. Privacy coins are de-listed from major exchanges
11. Bitcoin price blows past all-time high
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
58. 58
2021’s Bold Predictions
1. Coinbase debuts as the first IPO in crypto, market cap surpasses $30B
2. Industry sees two acquisitions above $500M and one acquisition above $1B
3. USD-backed stablecoin market issuance (Tether, USDC, Libra) surpasses $150B+
4. The combined market cap of top 3 DeFi governance tokens increases from 33% to 66% of
ETH’s market cap
5. Loans outstanding in DeFi protocols increases by 10x, surpassing $30B
6. 33% of all crypto exchange spot volumes will come from DEXes
7. WeChat Pay and Alipay support China’s CBDC
8. SEC approves first BTC ETF and first *custodial* digital asset Broker-Dealer
9. Bitcoin market cap grows from 4% to 10% of gold’s market cap
10. Microstrategy rebrands to Macrostrategy ;)
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
59. 59
About Blockchain Capital
Bart Stephens
Co-founder & Managing
Partner
Brad Stephens
Co-founder and
Managing Partner
Spencer Bogart
General Partner
MANAGEMENT TEAM
H. Joshua Rivera
General Counsel
and Chief
Compliance
Officer
Stephens Inv. Mmgt
Fidelity Ventures
CSFB Technology Group
Stephens Inv. Mmgt
Ivanhoe Capital
E*TRADE Group
Needham & Company
ETF.com
CFA
JoAnne Lauer
Director of
Investor
Relations
Zalia Aliriza
CFO
Allie Spencer
Office Manager
and Executive
Assistant
OPERATIONS TEAM
Lindsey Crawford
Executive Assistant
INVESTMENT TEAM
Kinjal Shah
Senior Associate
Aleks Larsen
Senior Associate
Derek Hsue
Associate
Jimmy Song
Bitcoin Fellow
Ben Davenport
Venture Partner
Shishi Feng
Data Scientist
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
60. 60
THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN DEVELOPED INTERNALLY AND/OR OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE; HOWEVER,
BLOCKCHAIN CAPITAL DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY, ADEQUACY OR COMPLETENESS OF SUCH INFORMATION. BLOCKCHAIN CAPITAL IS NOT UNDER ANY
OBLIGATION TO UPDATE OR KEEP CURRENT THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. PREDICTIONS, OPINIONS, AND OTHER INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE
ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE CONTINUALLY AND WITHOUT NOTICE OF ANY KIND AND MAY NO LONGER BE TRUE AFTER THE DATE INDICATED. ANY FORWARD-LOOKING
STATEMENTS SPEAK ONLY AS OF THE DATE THEY ARE MADE AND ARE SUBJECT TO NUMEROUS ASSUMPTIONS, RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES, WHICH CHANGE OVER TIME.
ACTUAL RESULTS COULD DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE ANTICIPATED IN FORWARD-LOOKINGSTATEMENTS.
EXAMPLES OF PORTFOLIO COMPANIES ARE PURELY FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES. THIS LIST IS ONLY PARTIAL, AND READERS SHOULD NOT ASSUME THAT THE
INVESTMENTS IDENTIFIED WERE OR WILL BE PROFITABLE OR ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF INVESTMENTS BY BLOCKCHAIN CAPITAL’S ADVISED FUNDS. THERE IS NO
GUARANTEE THAT ANY FUND WILL ACHIEVE THE SAME EXPOSURE TO, OR QUALITY OF, INVESTMENTS HELD BY ANY EXISTING FUND.
THIS MATERIAL IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY ANY
SECURITY; IT IS NEITHER A PROSPECTUS NOR AN ADVERTISEMENT, AND NO OFFERING IS BEING MADE TO THE PUBLIC. RECIPIENTS OF THIS DOCUMENT ARE NOT TO
CONSTRUE IT AS INVESTMENT, LEGAL, OR TAX ADVICE AND IT IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR ANY EVALUATION OF ANY INVESTMENT. BLOCKCHAIN
CAPITAL DOES NOT PROVIDE INVESTMENT ADVICE TO INVESTORS AND NO COMMUNICATION, THROUGH THIS DOCUMENT OR IN ANY OTHER MEDIUM, SHOULD BE
CONSTRUED AS A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. VENTURE INVESTING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK AND IS SUITABLE ONLY FOR SOPHISTICATED AND
QUALIFIED ACCREDITED INVESTORS.
Disclaimer
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE