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Deriving Long-Term Strategic                         Commodity Return Expectations:                         The Energy Complex                                                                                             Q M S Advisors                                                                                                 .    .                                                                                    Av. De la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne | CHThis material does not constitute investment advice and should not be viewed as                           tel: 078 922 08 77a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any                e-mail: info@qmsadv.comsecurities or to adopt any investment strategy.                                                 website: www.qmsadv.com
Long-Term Energy Markets Returns                    Main Significant Factors                                                                            Main Factors Driving Our Energy Commodity Forecast:                               Global                         n                   We                      tio      Growth                  titu ts                      ath                                   Global Economic Growth indicators                bs                                e              Su Effec                                r                                                                                     Global Energy Intensity factors                t                                                                                     Supply Capacity: Oil and Gas Extraction, Refinery capacity Re and men              s                                                    No EC          ion                                                    OP pply           on                                                                                     Term-Structure: Commodity Futures and Global Interest                                                     Su                                                      n-      v ir      lat   En   gu                                                                                     Rates                             Long-Term                                                                                     Global Commodity Inventories and SPR builds                               Energy                                                               DisciplineFreight                                                                                     Producers, Consumers, Exporters and Importers Flows                                                                OPEC Wet                             Commodity                                                                                     (IEA)                              Returns                                                                                     US Dollar Currency Basket                             Expectation                                                                                     Global Risk Aversion Parameter                                                          Ge       s                                                          S o     ne                                                           ho litica                                                                                     Wet freight index                                                            op  eli                                                             ck      Pip                                                                s l                                               St o                                  Capital Expenditures in the energy complex – Exploration                       g                                                   rag                                           Inv And e                                 Spending               Re fi                    nin        Value                                              en                                                tor                                                    ies                              CFTC reports - Hedgers and Speculators positions                              Relative                                               Global weather trends                                                                                     OPEC Policies and DisciplineQ.M.S Advisors Evaluates All Aspects of the Energy Complex to Derive Long-term Expectations                Q.M.S Advisors             Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com   Page 1
Long-Term Energy Returns                        A Structural Approach to Deriving Energy Commodity  Approach                                                           Global                                                                                                                                                                               Oil and Gas                                                       Macroeconomic                                                                                                                                                                                 Supply                                                          Activity                                                                                                                                                                                 Module                                                          Module                                                        Global Energy                                                                                                       Transmission                                                                                                                      Integrating                                                           Demand                                                                                                          and Distribution                                                                                                                        Module                                                           Module                                                                                                              Module                                                       Global Energy                                                                                                            Refinery /                                                     Products Demand                                                                                                           Conversion                                                          Module                                                                                                                 ModuleSource: Q.M.S Advisors, IEA, EIAThese materials do not contain any recommendation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. Credit Suisse Asset Management, LLC provides no determination of suitability or assurances orguarantees regarding the performance of any investment or investment strategy. You are responsible for conducting your own independent investigation and analysis, taking into account your particular circumstances, before deciding upon aparticular investment or investment strategy. Investments in certain asset classes, including hedge funds, carry significant additional risks that you should consider prior to investment. You accept complete responsibility for any investmentdecisions you may make as a result of your use of this material.                   Q.M.S Advisors                           Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com                                                                           Page 2
Long-Term Energy Returns     A Structural Approach to Deriving Energy CommodityApproach     Main Factors Driving Our Energy Commodity Markets Forecast        Our model is a composite of seven modules that cover demand, supply, conversion, distribution        as well as transmission constraints. Following are the most significant signals that explain our        forecast of the likely future developments in the Energy markets:             On the demand side:                  Demand from institutional investors for assets providing hedges against unexpected                  inflation.                  Demand growth for energy products. The emergence of China and India as major                  commodity consumers with low energy-efficiencies leads to increased energy                  demand sensitivities.                  Low price-elasticity in developed markets, resulting in little demand destruction                  through price increases.                  Limited number of substitutes and underdeveloped alternative sources of energy.                  A weaker US Dollar, supporting global demand by making international purchases                  relatively cheaper.    Q.M.S Advisors   Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com   Page 3
Long-Term Energy Returns     A Structural Approach to Deriving Energy CommodityApproach     Main Factors Driving Our Energy Commodity Markets Forecast             On the supply side:                • Lack of marginal capacity of production in the Energy complex which affects the                   short-term supply/demand equilibrium.                • Limited incremental supply and distribution capacity due to past under-investments                   across the energy complex (Lack of oil and gas exploration and R&D expenses,                   under-investments in global refinery capacity and distribution channels).                • Long-term supply is essentially a lagged response future price signals. High                   marginal costs of production require high future price levels to provide incentives to                   commit firms’ capital to volatile long-term investments.             Market derived signals: The current contango in the NYMEX WTI, Gasoline, Heating Oil             and IPE Brent and Gasoil forward curves supports our assumption of price appreciation in             the short run and substantial roll-yield in the longer run.             Other factors: Migration of speculative and institutional capital into the complex,             heightened geopolitical risks, vulnerability of oil infrastructure leading to potential supply             disruptions, lack of transparency resulting in market price manipulation.    Q.M.S Advisors   Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com   Page 4
Long-Term Industrial Metal Returns     Main Significant FactorsApproach     Main Factors Driving Our Industrial Metals Commodity Markets Forecast        Most significant signals in the likely future developments in the Industrial Metal markets:             On the demand side:                    Strong relative demand growth for Base Metal products. The emergence of China                    and India as major consumers of Base Metals increased Base Metals demand                    sensitivities. (Massive investments in local infrastructure).                    Lack of price-elasticity, negligible demand destruction through price increases                    Limited number or lack of substitutes for Base and Precious Metals.                    A weaker US Dollar, supporting global demand by making international purchases                    relatively cheaper.             On the supply side:                    Lack of marginal production capacity in the short-term in the Base Metals complex                    (Aluminum, Copper, Zinc, Nickel).                    Depleted inventories (Copper, Nickel).                    Limited incremental supply and distribution capacity due to past under-investments                    across the Base Metals complex (Depleted mines, lack of specialized labor, limited                    dry freight capacity).                    Upward cost pressures from labor demands and rising input prices.    Q.M.S Advisors   Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com   Page 5
Rationale for Investing in Commodities                              A Holistic Portfolio-Level Approach                                                                                                                                                       Clustering helps define groups of assets with high intra-group and                                                                                                                                                                         low inter-group dependencies  Grouping asset classes helps reveal the main                                                                                                                                                                           LESS CORRELATED                                                             LESS CORRELATED  sources of diversification         Maximum portfolio diversification requires                                                                                                      1         incorporating strategies at both ends of                                                                                                      0.9         the spectrum                                                                                                                                  0.8         Commodities offer maximum distances                                                                                                                               correlation distances                                                                                                                                                       0.7         resulting in greatest diversification                                                                                                                                                       0.6  Caveat                                                                                                                                               0.5                     Commodities may not provide attractive                                                                                            0.4                     alpha in all cycles (contango in commodity                                                                                        0.3                     markets and negative roll-yield)                                                                                                  0.2                     Investing in commodities entails high                                                                                                                                                       0.1                     volatility and more importantly drawdown                     risk                                                                                                                                0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Portfolio                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     U.S. Inflation                                                                                                                                                                                                              U.S. Small Cap                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Unhedged                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             U.S. Bonds                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Real Estate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 U.S. Cash                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Commodity                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  GS Commodity                                                                                                                                                              U.S. Large                                                                                                                                                                             60/40 Portfolio                                                                                                                                                                                               U.S. Mid Cap                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Emerging                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             60/40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       DJ-AIG                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           EAFE                                                                                                                                                                 CapSource: Q.M.S Advisors, Ibbotson, Matlab. Dendrogram based on unadjusted monthly total returns from January 1991 to December 2008.                           Hierarchical cluster tree based on average correlation matrix distances                                             Commodities Offer Attractive Returns and Potent Diversification                          Q.M.S Advisors                        Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com                                                                                                                                                            Page 6
Rationale for Investing in Commodities      A Holistic Portfolio-Level ApproachRationale         Allow for diversification at two levels              At the “beta” level, commodities offer fundamentally different market dynamics.              Commodities offer an opportunity to gain exposure to “real assets”, driven by supply and              demand imbalances              At the “alpha” level, commodities allow for a flexible and efficient use of capital:                 • Gain exposure to alpha by actively managing the roll of the underlying contracts                 • Generate incremental returns from collateral redeployed in other investment vehicles                 • Profit from trading opportunities across commodities by implementing tactical shifts         Offer overall no correlation to traditional 60/40 portfolio returns              Due to low correlations, 60/40 portfolios and commodities did not generate extreme              negative values simultaneously. Periods of large negative portfolio deviations (-2s) were              accompanied by slightly negative average monthly commodity returns         Caveat              Investing in commodities should be viewed as a long-term investment to mitigate              significant volatility and drawdown risk     Q.M.S Advisors   Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com   Page 7
Rationale for Investing in Commodities                        Breakeven Analysis – Optimal Allocation to CommoditiesExpected Returns Required On Commodities For Inclusion In The Current Portfolio At Present Risk Level.                                                        12                                                                                                                                                                                                   Efficient Allocation to                                                                                                                                                                                                   Commodities with current                                                        10                                                                                                                                         portfolio allocation                                                         8                                  Expected Return (%)                                                                                                                                                                                                   Expected Return on Current                                                                                                                                                                                                   Portfolio                                                         6                                                         4                                                         2                                                         0                                                             0           5                    10                      15                      20                      25                      30                                                                              Allocation to Commodities (% of total portfolio)Source: Q.M.S Advisors, Ibbotson. Based on current 60% Fixed Income 40% Equity portfolio. Analysis based on Q.M.S Advisors’ Asset Class Assumptions.These materials do not contain any recommendation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. Credit Suisse Asset Management, LLC provides no determination of suitability or assurances orguarantees regarding the performance of any investment or investment strategy. You are responsible for conducting your own independent investigation and analysis, taking into account your particular circumstances, before deciding upon aparticular investment or investment strategy. Investments in certain asset classes, including hedge funds, carry significant additional risks that you should consider prior to investment. You accept complete responsibility for any investmentdecisions you may make as a result of your use of this material.                   Q.M.S Advisors                                Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com                                                                      Page 8

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QMS Advisors - Commodities & Natural Resources

  • 1. Deriving Long-Term Strategic Commodity Return Expectations: The Energy Complex Q M S Advisors . . Av. De la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne | CHThis material does not constitute investment advice and should not be viewed as tel: 078 922 08 77a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any e-mail: info@qmsadv.comsecurities or to adopt any investment strategy. website: www.qmsadv.com
  • 2. Long-Term Energy Markets Returns Main Significant Factors Main Factors Driving Our Energy Commodity Forecast: Global n We tio Growth titu ts ath Global Economic Growth indicators bs e Su Effec r Global Energy Intensity factors t Supply Capacity: Oil and Gas Extraction, Refinery capacity Re and men s No EC ion OP pply on Term-Structure: Commodity Futures and Global Interest Su n- v ir lat En gu Rates Long-Term Global Commodity Inventories and SPR builds Energy DisciplineFreight Producers, Consumers, Exporters and Importers Flows OPEC Wet Commodity (IEA) Returns US Dollar Currency Basket Expectation Global Risk Aversion Parameter Ge s S o ne ho litica Wet freight index op eli ck Pip s l St o Capital Expenditures in the energy complex – Exploration g rag Inv And e Spending Re fi nin Value en tor ies CFTC reports - Hedgers and Speculators positions Relative Global weather trends OPEC Policies and DisciplineQ.M.S Advisors Evaluates All Aspects of the Energy Complex to Derive Long-term Expectations Q.M.S Advisors Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 1
  • 3. Long-Term Energy Returns A Structural Approach to Deriving Energy Commodity Approach Global Oil and Gas Macroeconomic Supply Activity Module Module Global Energy Transmission Integrating Demand and Distribution Module Module Module Global Energy Refinery / Products Demand Conversion Module ModuleSource: Q.M.S Advisors, IEA, EIAThese materials do not contain any recommendation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. Credit Suisse Asset Management, LLC provides no determination of suitability or assurances orguarantees regarding the performance of any investment or investment strategy. You are responsible for conducting your own independent investigation and analysis, taking into account your particular circumstances, before deciding upon aparticular investment or investment strategy. Investments in certain asset classes, including hedge funds, carry significant additional risks that you should consider prior to investment. You accept complete responsibility for any investmentdecisions you may make as a result of your use of this material. Q.M.S Advisors Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 2
  • 4. Long-Term Energy Returns A Structural Approach to Deriving Energy CommodityApproach Main Factors Driving Our Energy Commodity Markets Forecast Our model is a composite of seven modules that cover demand, supply, conversion, distribution as well as transmission constraints. Following are the most significant signals that explain our forecast of the likely future developments in the Energy markets: On the demand side: Demand from institutional investors for assets providing hedges against unexpected inflation. Demand growth for energy products. The emergence of China and India as major commodity consumers with low energy-efficiencies leads to increased energy demand sensitivities. Low price-elasticity in developed markets, resulting in little demand destruction through price increases. Limited number of substitutes and underdeveloped alternative sources of energy. A weaker US Dollar, supporting global demand by making international purchases relatively cheaper. Q.M.S Advisors Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 3
  • 5. Long-Term Energy Returns A Structural Approach to Deriving Energy CommodityApproach Main Factors Driving Our Energy Commodity Markets Forecast On the supply side: • Lack of marginal capacity of production in the Energy complex which affects the short-term supply/demand equilibrium. • Limited incremental supply and distribution capacity due to past under-investments across the energy complex (Lack of oil and gas exploration and R&D expenses, under-investments in global refinery capacity and distribution channels). • Long-term supply is essentially a lagged response future price signals. High marginal costs of production require high future price levels to provide incentives to commit firms’ capital to volatile long-term investments. Market derived signals: The current contango in the NYMEX WTI, Gasoline, Heating Oil and IPE Brent and Gasoil forward curves supports our assumption of price appreciation in the short run and substantial roll-yield in the longer run. Other factors: Migration of speculative and institutional capital into the complex, heightened geopolitical risks, vulnerability of oil infrastructure leading to potential supply disruptions, lack of transparency resulting in market price manipulation. Q.M.S Advisors Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 4
  • 6. Long-Term Industrial Metal Returns Main Significant FactorsApproach Main Factors Driving Our Industrial Metals Commodity Markets Forecast Most significant signals in the likely future developments in the Industrial Metal markets: On the demand side: Strong relative demand growth for Base Metal products. The emergence of China and India as major consumers of Base Metals increased Base Metals demand sensitivities. (Massive investments in local infrastructure). Lack of price-elasticity, negligible demand destruction through price increases Limited number or lack of substitutes for Base and Precious Metals. A weaker US Dollar, supporting global demand by making international purchases relatively cheaper. On the supply side: Lack of marginal production capacity in the short-term in the Base Metals complex (Aluminum, Copper, Zinc, Nickel). Depleted inventories (Copper, Nickel). Limited incremental supply and distribution capacity due to past under-investments across the Base Metals complex (Depleted mines, lack of specialized labor, limited dry freight capacity). Upward cost pressures from labor demands and rising input prices. Q.M.S Advisors Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 5
  • 7. Rationale for Investing in Commodities A Holistic Portfolio-Level Approach Clustering helps define groups of assets with high intra-group and low inter-group dependencies Grouping asset classes helps reveal the main LESS CORRELATED LESS CORRELATED sources of diversification Maximum portfolio diversification requires 1 incorporating strategies at both ends of 0.9 the spectrum 0.8 Commodities offer maximum distances correlation distances 0.7 resulting in greatest diversification 0.6 Caveat 0.5 Commodities may not provide attractive 0.4 alpha in all cycles (contango in commodity 0.3 markets and negative roll-yield) 0.2 Investing in commodities entails high 0.1 volatility and more importantly drawdown risk 0 Portfolio U.S. Inflation U.S. Small Cap Unhedged U.S. Bonds Real Estate U.S. Cash Commodity GS Commodity U.S. Large 60/40 Portfolio U.S. Mid Cap Emerging 60/40 Markets DJ-AIG EAFE CapSource: Q.M.S Advisors, Ibbotson, Matlab. Dendrogram based on unadjusted monthly total returns from January 1991 to December 2008. Hierarchical cluster tree based on average correlation matrix distances Commodities Offer Attractive Returns and Potent Diversification Q.M.S Advisors Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 6
  • 8. Rationale for Investing in Commodities A Holistic Portfolio-Level ApproachRationale Allow for diversification at two levels At the “beta” level, commodities offer fundamentally different market dynamics. Commodities offer an opportunity to gain exposure to “real assets”, driven by supply and demand imbalances At the “alpha” level, commodities allow for a flexible and efficient use of capital: • Gain exposure to alpha by actively managing the roll of the underlying contracts • Generate incremental returns from collateral redeployed in other investment vehicles • Profit from trading opportunities across commodities by implementing tactical shifts Offer overall no correlation to traditional 60/40 portfolio returns Due to low correlations, 60/40 portfolios and commodities did not generate extreme negative values simultaneously. Periods of large negative portfolio deviations (-2s) were accompanied by slightly negative average monthly commodity returns Caveat Investing in commodities should be viewed as a long-term investment to mitigate significant volatility and drawdown risk Q.M.S Advisors Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 7
  • 9. Rationale for Investing in Commodities Breakeven Analysis – Optimal Allocation to CommoditiesExpected Returns Required On Commodities For Inclusion In The Current Portfolio At Present Risk Level. 12 Efficient Allocation to Commodities with current 10 portfolio allocation 8 Expected Return (%) Expected Return on Current Portfolio 6 4 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Allocation to Commodities (% of total portfolio)Source: Q.M.S Advisors, Ibbotson. Based on current 60% Fixed Income 40% Equity portfolio. Analysis based on Q.M.S Advisors’ Asset Class Assumptions.These materials do not contain any recommendation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. Credit Suisse Asset Management, LLC provides no determination of suitability or assurances orguarantees regarding the performance of any investment or investment strategy. You are responsible for conducting your own independent investigation and analysis, taking into account your particular circumstances, before deciding upon aparticular investment or investment strategy. Investments in certain asset classes, including hedge funds, carry significant additional risks that you should consider prior to investment. You accept complete responsibility for any investmentdecisions you may make as a result of your use of this material. Q.M.S Advisors Av. de la Gare, 1 | 1003, Lausanne CH | tel: 078 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com | website: www.qmsadv.com Page 8