Presentation given at the 2016 Royal Netherlands Airforce Airpower Symposium, April 27, 2016, Gilze-Rijen Air Base

1. THE FUTURE OF ARMED FORCE
TOWARDS A DEFENSE AND SECURITY ECOSYSTEM?
STEPHAN DE SPIEGELEIRE
HCSS PRINCIPAL SCIENTIST
ROYAL NETHERLANDS AIRFORCE AIRPOWER SYMPOSIUM, APRIL 27, 2016, GILZE-RIJEN AIR BASE

2. ?Defense Ecosystem

3. When You Google ‘defense military’
operatiën

4. When You Google ‘Ecosystem’
duurzaam

5. NLD CHOD on ‘Ecosystems’
…[A]s the custodians of our societies’
security, we also have to explore other
parts of this ecosystem. Areas that are
less formalized and less structured.
Areas, where aligned actions emerge
more ad-hoc, and bottom-up. Areas,
where co-operation is extremely
dynamic and flexible. Areas, not
described in signed agreements but
more driven by common interests and
some level of mutual trust, operating
through informal networks.
Take Google or Apple for example
with their mobile ‘app’ stores. They
provide a free and open platform,
that all sorts of ‘ecosystem partners’
can hitch a ride on. Both ‘planned’
and ‘unplanned', while in the
meantime allowing Google and Apple
to benefit from the ideas, creativity,
capabilities and actions of others.
“I wonder whether this is something
our defense organizations might learn from… “

6. The ‘Soldier’ of the Future

7. Defence andArmed Force –
Back to the Roots
? ?
? Defend mid-13c., from
O.Fr. defendre (12c.) "defend,
resist," and directly from
L. defendere "ward off, protect,
guard, allege in defence,"
from de- "from, away" (see de-)
+ -fendere "to strike, push,"
from PIE base *gwhen-"to strike,
kill, wound"
Arm "weapon," c.1300, from
O.Fr. armes (pl.), 11c., from
L. arma "weapons," lit. "tools,
implements (of war)," PIE
base *ar- "fit, join." The
notion seems to be "that which
is fitted together."
Security "without care, dreading no
evil," c. 1530s, from Latin*se cura:
se "free from" +
cura "care“ - tranquil; free from danger

8. ‘Armed Force’ as a Reflection of theAge
Industrial societyAgrarian society
Age
Nomadic
(Hunter/gatherer)
Bare Hands
Human
Clan
Cold
Mechanical
Settlement
Hot
Thermal
Nation-State
Post-industrial society:
Information and knowledge age?
Age
‘Arms’ Information and knowledge?
Energy Information and knowledge?
Unit Ecosystem?
‘Arms’
Energy
Unit
Hominoid History –
Start of Agriculture
Since the Last
Ice Age
Pre-
Industrial
Industrial

9. Industrial age: TheAge of the ‘Line’

10. The Industrial Paradigm (‘Taylorism’)

11. Stovepipes galore
 Within our MoDs
 Services
 Civil-Military
 Policy/strategy – ops
– caps – fin - HR…
 Inter-agency
 Public-private
 Companies
 Academic
disciplines
 Time stovepipes
 Ideology
 …

12. The end of the line; The dawn of the network/ecosystem

13. Complicated vs. complex

14. How We Think About ‘Strategy’ Now
Policy
Strategy
Operational
Tactical

15. How Operations Devoured Strategy

16.  Before the industrial age
 ‘Sovereign’ incarnated strategy and tactics
 Before the industrial age
 ‘Sovereign’ incarnated strategy and tactics
 He made the strategic decisions
 Before the industrial age
 ‘Sovereign’ incarnated strategy and tactics
 He made the strategic decisions
 And then led the troops into combat
How Operations Devoured Strategy

17. How Operations Devoured Strategy
 Industrial age – the ‘age of the line’
 Quantum leap in physical/social technologies; larger
political units (nations), larger scope of combat
 Role/Task Specialization – e.g. between ‘political’
leader (direction and control) and ‘military’ leader
 Operational art emerges and devours strategy
 Post-industrial age? – the age of the
network/ecosystem?
 Compression of echelons?
 A ‘new’ all-encompassing echelon?
 Post-echelon?
 Before the industrial age
 ‘Sovereign’ incarnated strategy and tactics
 He made the strategic decisions
 And then led the troops into combat

18. What Happened in the Industrial Age
?
Politics
Strategy
Operational
Tactical
T
h
e
M
i
l
i
t
a
r
y
Pre-Industrial
Policy
Strategy
Operational
Tactical
T
h
e
S
o
v
e
r
e
i
g
n
Industrial Post-Industrial?

19. Don’t we already do this? The comprehensive approach
First in-theater
(3D)
Then in capitals
(typically through
money)
Then in capitals
(on missions and
ops)
Ecosystem?
Then broader
(terrorism and
HS)

20. ‘Ecosystem’
An ecosystem is a community of living organisms in
conjunction with the nonliving components of their environment
(things like air, water and mineral soil), interacting as a system.

21. The ‘model’

22. Examples

23. InterBrand: Best Global Brands

24. These Grew Fastest
These are platform ecosystems

26. The power of ecosystem platforms
’’In 2015,
Uber, the world’s largest taxi
company owns no vehicles,
Facebook the world’s most
popular media owner creates
no content,
Alibaba the most valuable
retailer has no inventory, and
Airbnb the world’s largest
hotelier owns no real estate.’’ Tom Goodwin, Sr. VP of Strategy
Havas Media

27. ‘Defense’As an Ecosystem (Platform)?
 The defense and security ecosystem exists. It’s evolving
exponentially. What is the future of ‘Armed Force’?
 Do we want to remain (mostly industrial-kinetic) operators (current
me+)
 Do we want to become industrial AND post-industrial ‘operators’ (‘
future me’ – ‘I’ am the primary operator)
 Do we want to become the
 custodians of a broader defense and security ecosystem (future ‘we’ –
catalyst, nudger, ‘strange attractor’, etc.)
 catalysts/‘owners’ of a platform that brings this ecosystem together
 Who (now!) does/can do future ‘capability’ planning for the
entire DSE?
 Still (again) a special role for Europe (/the Netherlands)?

28. Don’t be a star, be an ecosystem platform…