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10 TRENDS IN STRATEGIC FORESIGHT    FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY              STEPHAN DE SPIEGELEIRE              HCSS SENIOR ...
Strategy is about „the big picture‟                   ?   ??
„Armed Force‟ as a Reflection of the Age                  Nomadic              (Hunter/gatherer)    Agrarian society Indus...
STRONG in the 21st Century:  STRategic Orientation and Navigation Guidance      Strategic Orientation                     ...
Trend 1 – (A bit) more „serious‟ strategic analysis  … but differentially so      Strategic Orientation                   ...
Trend 1 – (A bit) more „serious‟ strategic analysis                                    Personal and notional drawings!    ...
Foresight and Defence PlanningA Short History                                                                             ...
FORESIGHT FOR DEFENCE:10 TRENDS
10 trends 1.   Foresight for defense (still?) going strong 2.   More balance between time horizons 3.   Towards whole-of-g...
Trend 1 – Interest in foresight (still?) growing
Trend 2 – Better Balance between Planning Horizons:Away from Presentism?                                Personal and notio...
Trend 3 – Towards whole-of-government (slowly)                                                       Integrated           ...
Planning for National Security –      The Dutch Model (2007)                         Foresight                        Risk...
Government-Wide National Risk AssessmentMethodology
Government-Wide National RiskAssessment- – Assessing likelihood                                         Hazards     Class ...
Impact assessment Territorial   Human         Ecological Pol-Soc stability                       Economic
Government-Wide National RiskAssessment – Assessing Impact
Government-Wide National RiskAssessment – 2008 Risk diagram
Trend 4 – Diversification of types of foresight                                                          Strategic securit...
Trend 5 - Diversification of foresight methods
HCSS „flares‟: 8 different angles …                                   …along (at least) three dimensions                  ...
„Events‟ in scenario framework
Online expertforum              • What do you see as the major                risks to national and international         ...
TRADITIONAL ARMS RACE - CONCEPTUAL VIEW                                              Sensitivity of opposing              ...
Trend 6 – Towards Foresight 3.0   Foresight 1.0         Foresight 2.0               Foresight 3.0                        C...
Meta-fore – Etymology and Meaning                                          Meta- fore                       Μετα-φορά     ...
Metafore C6+2 protocol                            “Command and                               Control‟Conceptualize        ...
Collection - Method     Sources             Search algoritm                                       „Future‟                ...
4. Processing - manual
Future contours of conflictThe sources - breakdowns                Total: 265 sources
Global parameters - Overview                              1                            2                                  ...
Parameters – Values across Languages                              1                            2                          ...
Drivers – Rank across Languages
5. Vizualization – manual (Papermachines)              International Organizations
5. Vizualization – automatic(Leximancer)              Academic literature
5. Vizualization – automatic(Leximancer)               Academic literature
Trend 7 – More focus on non-‟known knowns‟ (1/2)              Unknowns    Knowns                 Knowns          Unknowns ...
Trend 7 – More focus on non-‟known knowns‟ (2/2)
Trend 8 – „Anchoring‟ foresight               “it is all too easy to overestimate the effects of               these exerc...
Trend 9 – more „inside-out‟ foresight                         The butterfly-model            general              to-     ...
Outside-in / General to security
Trend 9 – More „inside-out‟ foresight                     vision  outside-in                                  inside-out  ...
Trend 9 – More „inside-out‟ foresight                                    vision  outside-in                               ...
Trend 10 – Towards new foresight products
Traditional STRONG      Orientation                            Navigation                            ‘Leader’        „Stra...
Industrial STRONG      Orientation                          Navigation                       Commandant +                 ...
Post-Industrial STRONG?                                             But we need a lubricant!!!     Orientation            ...
Orientation under complexity
Designing an Options Portfolio under Complexity
STRONG under Complexity
10 Trends in Strategic Foresight for Defense and Security
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10 Trends in Strategic Foresight for Defense and Security

  1. 1. 10 TRENDS IN STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY STEPHAN DE SPIEGELEIRE HCSS SENIOR SCIENTIST STOCKHOLM, NOVEMBER 28, 2012
  2. 2. Strategy is about „the big picture‟ ? ??
  3. 3. „Armed Force‟ as a Reflection of the Age Nomadic (Hunter/gatherer) Agrarian society Industrial society Age „Arms‟ Bare Hands+ Cold Hot Energy Human Mechanical Thermal Unit Clan Settlement  City Nation-State Post-industrial society: Information and knowledge age Age Arms ? Energy ? Unit ? [..., networks, cities, societies, individuals,…]
  4. 4. STRONG in the 21st Century: STRategic Orientation and Navigation Guidance Strategic Orientation Strategic Navigation 1 Performance indicators External (design/collect) Analysis Strategic portfolio analysis 2 StrategicForesight boundary Strategic Act CD&E direction conditions Capa- Eco- Policy bility system options options options Internal Analysis Decide 1 – Strategic learning Strategic Risk Assessment 2 – Strategic feedback loop Value for Money Analysis
  5. 5. Trend 1 – (A bit) more „serious‟ strategic analysis … but differentially so Strategic Orientation Strategic Navigation 1 Performance indicators External (design/collect) Analysis Strategic portfolio analysis 2 StrategicForesight boundary Strategic Act CD&E direction conditions Capa- Eco- Policy bility system options options options Internal Analysis Decide 1 – Strategic learning Strategic Risk Assessment 2 – Strategic feedback loop Value for Money Analysis
  6. 6. Trend 1 – (A bit) more „serious‟ strategic analysis Personal and notional drawings! Strategic Strategic Strategic Operational Operational Tactical Tactical US Europe Europe (Best case) (Typical case)
  7. 7. Foresight and Defence PlanningA Short History I n Fore- Point Parameterized Foresight s Risk/Uncertainty Meta-Foresight casting Scenarios scenarios i g h t Teleological Multi-scenario Robust „FAR‟ First planning Planning (1-on-1) planning planning principles  from “plan and pray” to “sense and respond”
  8. 8. FORESIGHT FOR DEFENCE:10 TRENDS
  9. 9. 10 trends 1. Foresight for defense (still?) going strong 2. More balance between time horizons 3. Towards whole-of-government/society 4. Diversification of types of foresight 5. Diversification of foresight tools/methods 6. From foresight 1.0 to 2.0 to 3.0 7. Towards better actioning of foresight 8. More balance between outside-in/inside-out 9. Towards new foresight products
  10. 10. Trend 1 – Interest in foresight (still?) growing
  11. 11. Trend 2 – Better Balance between Planning Horizons:Away from Presentism? Personal and notional estimates !!!P High L A N N I N Medium G Defence Planning- E F Horizons: F • current O Low • medium-term R • long-term T 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s YEAR
  12. 12. Trend 3 – Towards whole-of-government (slowly) Integrated security Whole-of- foresight Society Internal security Whole-of- Government Stovepiped Whole-of- Whole-of- Government Society External security
  13. 13. Planning for National Security – The Dutch Model (2007) Foresight Risk assessment Capabilities planningProcess 1. Government-wide analysis 2. Strategic planning 3. Follow-up Policy A. Strategic B. Horizon- Required Current foresight scanning capabilies capabiliities C. National Planning Risk risk- assumpt prioritization Measures assessment ions B. Thematic in-depth foresight Capabilities gap Legislation Report Report Report National - WorkProduct strategic themes and Threat Risk programme Capability foresight scenarios picture Assessment requirements tasks and Cabinet Cabinet capabilities Cabinet decidesDecision- decides on selects on capabilities themes for priorities on to bemaking thematic basis of strengthened in-depth national risk through normal analyses assessment budget system
  14. 14. Government-Wide National Risk AssessmentMethodology
  15. 15. Government-Wide National RiskAssessment- – Assessing likelihood Hazards Class Quantitative (%) Qualitative description of danger A < 0,05 Highly improbable B 0.05 – 0.5 Improbable C 0.5 – 5 Possible D 5 – 50 Probable E 50 – 100 Highly probable Dangers Class Qualitative description of danger A No concrete indication, and event is thought to be inconceivable B No concrete indication, but event is conceivable C No concrete indication, but event is conceivable D Event is thought to be quite probable E Concrete indication event will occur
  16. 16. Impact assessment Territorial Human Ecological Pol-Soc stability Economic
  17. 17. Government-Wide National RiskAssessment – Assessing Impact
  18. 18. Government-Wide National RiskAssessment – 2008 Risk diagram
  19. 19. Trend 4 – Diversification of types of foresight Strategic security After Paul Davis planning (Deep(ening?)) Risk UncertaintyplanningType of Operational Contingency planning planning Risk planning Uncertainty planning Planning Foresight Broader foresight No-surprises future Point-scenarios toolbox ‘The Black Swan’ Pinciple Optimization Robustness FRANKness First principles
  20. 20. Trend 5 - Diversification of foresight methods
  21. 21. HCSS „flares‟: 8 different angles … …along (at least) three dimensions Level of Abstraction High Very abstract Low Very concrete Long Short Timehorizon Quantitative Qualitative Research method
  22. 22. „Events‟ in scenario framework
  23. 23. Online expertforum • What do you see as the major risks to national and international stability and security in the Risks coming 5-15 years? • International • National Relevance • Criteria • Driving forces • Actors Elaboration • Regions
  24. 24. TRADITIONAL ARMS RACE - CONCEPTUAL VIEW Sensitivity of opposing arms production B Bias in estimating Time to perceive opposing arms B arms opposing arms B + + + Estimated - opposing arms A + + Arms B Desired arms A + - + + +New arms under Estimated Estimated New arms underdevelopment A domestic arms A domestic arms B development B + + + + - Arms A Desired arms B + Estimated opposing arms B - + + Time to perceive arms Bias in estimating opposing arms A opposing arms A Sensitivity of opposing arms production A
  25. 25. Trend 6 – Towards Foresight 3.0 Foresight 1.0 Foresight 2.0 Foresight 3.0 Connecting people / Prima Donna Networks of (remarkable) people Connecting visions
  26. 26. Meta-fore – Etymology and Meaning Meta- fore Μετα-φορά Fore-sight A (metaphora) n G c r i e fore sight e e μεταφέρω (metapherō) n k “„I transfer, apply‟” ME, probably t translation of Latin „providentia‟ μετά (meta), φέρω (pherō), “above, beyond‟” “„I bear, carry‟”  Meta-analysis of existing foresight exercises  Without pre-conceived (ideological, methodological, cultural,…) notions  (Attempt to) carry the field of foresight beyond its current status
  27. 27. Metafore C6+2 protocol “Command and Control‟Conceptualize Collect Code Cogitate Commit to paper Communicate
  28. 28. Collection - Method Sources Search algoritm „Future‟ „Conflict‟ „Serious‟ Sources 29
  29. 29. 4. Processing - manual
  30. 30. Future contours of conflictThe sources - breakdowns Total: 265 sources
  31. 31. Global parameters - Overview 1 2 3 4 5Actors Blocs of States Pairs of States State and non-state vs. non-state State vs. non-state Non-state vs. non-state ActorsAim Physical degradation Obtain/retain/occupy Political/economic degradation Stabilize Survive AimDefinition War Militarized interstate disputes Tensions between non-state actors Political/economic tensions Between individuals DefinitionDistinctiveness Low Leans low Medium Leans high High DistinctivenessDomain Traditional Dimensions Modern military dimensions Political Economic Human Terrain DomainExtensiveness Global Regional Sub-regional National Domestic ExtensivenessImpetus Data Interest Value Relationship Structural ImpetusLength Years Months Days Hours Minutes LengthMeans Physical Political Economic Electronic/Cyber Information/ Psychological MeansPace Low Leans low Medium Leans high High PaceSalience Low Leans low Medium Leans high High Salience 36 1 2 3 4 5
  32. 32. Parameters – Values across Languages 1 2 3 4 5Actors Blocs of States Pairs of States State and non-state vs. non-state State vs. non-state Non-state vs. non-state ActorsAim Physical degradation Obtain/retain/occupy Political/economic degradation Stabilize Survive AimDefinition War Militarized interstate disputes Tensions between non-state actors Political/economic tensions Between individuals DefinitionDistinctiveness Low Leans low Medium Leans high High DistinctivenessDomain Traditional Dimensions Modern military dimensions Political Economic Human Terrain DomainExtensiveness Global Regional Sub-regional National Domestic ExtensivenessImpetus Data Interest Value Relationship Structural ImpetusLength Years Months Days Hours Minutes LengthMeans Physical Political Economic Electronic/Cyber Information/ Psychological MeansPace Low Leans low Medium Leans high High PaceSalience Low Leans low Medium Leans high High Salience 1 2 3 4 5
  33. 33. Drivers – Rank across Languages
  34. 34. 5. Vizualization – manual (Papermachines) International Organizations
  35. 35. 5. Vizualization – automatic(Leximancer) Academic literature
  36. 36. 5. Vizualization – automatic(Leximancer) Academic literature
  37. 37. Trend 7 – More focus on non-‟known knowns‟ (1/2) Unknowns Knowns Knowns Unknowns „Lesser and included‟ A few point scenarios „Wise Prediction‟/ (Point-)Scenario-planning/ Big gambler Scenario-gambling
  38. 38. Trend 7 – More focus on non-‟known knowns‟ (2/2)
  39. 39. Trend 8 – „Anchoring‟ foresight “it is all too easy to overestimate the effects of these exercises, particularly when you consider the rhetoric surrounding some of them. Closer examination shows that their impact on research and innovation systems is typically rather marginal, and they tend to lead to incremental, evolutionary changes, often at the edges.” Mapping Foresight. Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future. EFMN, November 2009
  40. 40. Trend 9 – more „inside-out‟ foresight The butterfly-model general to- semadyson security Outside-in integratie Inside-out security - to- themes/caps
  41. 41. Outside-in / General to security
  42. 42. Trend 9 – More „inside-out‟ foresight vision outside-in inside-out future future me’s what are we (/do we want to be) good at?environments => capabilities integration
  43. 43. Trend 9 – More „inside-out‟ foresight vision outside-in inside-out future future me’s what are / doenvironments => we want to be capabilities good at? integration (future) capability requirements - DOTMLPFI
  44. 44. Trend 10 – Towards new foresight products
  45. 45. Traditional STRONG Orientation Navigation ‘Leader’ „Strategic monitor‟ = image(s) in the leaders‟s head
  46. 46. Industrial STRONG Orientation Navigation Commandant + Staffs CEO + Executive Board „Strategic monitor‟ = regular planning document
  47. 47. Post-Industrial STRONG? But we need a lubricant!!! Orientation Navigation Strategic monitor = diverse „open‟ future-base
  48. 48. Orientation under complexity
  49. 49. Designing an Options Portfolio under Complexity
  50. 50. STRONG under Complexity

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