Scott Sambucci's presentation from the Home Prices Panel Discussion at the Opal Financial Group's "Real Estate Investors Summit: Dealmakers Conference" (April 25-27, 2010).

1. April 2010: Real Time Housing Market Data & Housing Prices Altos Research

2. Real-Time Real Estate Market Analytics Altos Research answers the question “How’s the market, right now?” Our clients are anyone who has an exposure to the real estate market Financial institutions, investors, and thousands of real estate professionals around the country. The only national source of primary research in the active housing market Unique statistics and applications for analysis and action

3. Active Inventory: 20-City Composite

4. Days-on-Market: 20-City Composite

5. Housing Price Trends: 20-City Composite

6. Altos 20-City Composite

7. Looking Ahead: 2011

8. Price of New Listings

9. Active Sellers w/ Price Reductions

10. What Really Drives Mortgage Risk? 2008 -Default spike exactly correlated with market trough Pre-2007 “normal” markets: defaults correlate to FICO, LTV 1 2 2009 – market conditions stabilized, new defaults decline

12. Reality:

13. CA list prices rose 8% in 1H2009

14. Inventory dropped by 30%

15. New defaults fell 24% in Q4

16. LTV is still lousy on these properties

18. Altos RMBS Local Market Intelligence™ Real-time, local view Home price stats Median price, PNL, PLA Home price distribution stats Min, max, stdev Price quartiles distribution Supply and demand Inventory, median DOM, mean DOM, new listings, listings absorbed Housing Market Psychology™ indicators % relist, %price reduced, Market Action Index

20. The last 36 months have taught us that external housing market variables are by far the most important variable in determining mortgage default rates

21. Home Price direction, inventory, time to sell

22. Impact the borrower psychology and drive decisions

23. Declining market: “I’ll never get out. It’ll never sell.”

25. Contact Info Scott Sambucci, VP Data Analytics M: (415) 596-0804 O: (415) 931 7942 scott@altosresearch.com T: @AltosResearch Bloomberg: ALTO www.altosresearch.com blog.altosresearch.com