Presentations slides from the "2010 Housing Market Leading Indicators, presented by Altos Research" webinar hosted by Scott Sambucci, VP of Data Analytics with Altos Research on January 27, 2010, examining early housing market trends emerging in 2010.
Low rate ↬Call girls in Sabzi Mandi Delhi | 8447779280}Escort Service In All ...
2010 Housing Market Leading Indicators, presented by Altos Research
1. 2010 Housing Market Who’s with you today?
Leading Indicators Scott Sambucci, VP, Data Analytics
presented by
scott@altosresearch.com
Altos Research
(415) 931 7942 - direct
http://blog.altosresearch.com
Twitter: @AltosResearch
Scott Macwhinnie, Sales Manager, Institutional
& Corporate Markets
EMERGING TRENDS IN THE 2010 scottm@altosresearch.com
HOUSING MARKET (646) 435-1100- direct
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 2
Altos 10-City Composite
Grab you coffee… Lots to cover
Altos Research Seller Confidence Indicators
Pending Mortgage Market Effects
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI
Selected Regional & Metro Trends
(including the reason why being a Cubs fan isn’t
the worst thing about living in Chicago…)
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 3 Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 4
1
2. Sellers show the way Price Discovery Trends
Price Reductions: Elevated but improving Price vs. Inventory
2
3. The Lagging Luxury Market
Quartile 1: Most expensive 25% of properties
Quartile 2: Top Middle 25%
Quartile 3: Bottom Middle 25%
Quartile 4: Least expensive 25% of properties
Example: 80 homes for sale in a market (city or
zip code)
4 "quartiles" (groups) each have 20 properties
based on individual property prices.
Allows for market definition by price, not just
geography
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 9
The Washington Post:
“Stakes are high as government plans exit from
mortgage markets”
"We did what we thought was necessary to stabilize the market,
but we don't think the government should continue special
efforts forever," said Michael S. Barr, an assistant secretary at
the Treasury Department. "As you bring stability, private
participants come back in. We do expect this now that the
market has stabilized. I'm not going to say there will be no
effect on rates, but we do think you are seeing market signs
and market signals that there should be an orderly transition."
When Fed stops funding mortgages, there’s a scenario that
says “everything stops”
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 12
3
4. S&P/Case ShillerHPI Altos 10-City Composite:
Leading the SPCSI by 3-4 months
Oct ‘09 released on Nov ‘09 released on Median Ask Price Case-Shiller
12/29/09: Reported up 1/26/09: Down $560,000 230
220
0.2%, fractionally $540,000
210
$520,000 200
Oct ‘09 revised on 14 of 20 markets 190
$500,000
1/26/20: Now down moved negatively in 180
$480,000 170
fractionally November 160
$460,000
Altos – Trough in Jan, By we already knew $440,000
150
140
peak in June that… How?... $420,000 130
date
Feb-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Apr-09
Jun-09
Apr-08
Jun-08
Apr-07
Jun-07
CS - Trough April, in
Peak in Sept
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 14
New sellers expecting lower sales prices San Francisco-Oakland MSA
One of six SPCSI markets that moved positively in Nov ’09
SF List Prices
peaked in Nov ‘09
4
5. Los Angeles-Orange County MSA Los Angeles MSA: New Sellers
One of six SPCSI markets that moved positively in Nov ’09
Prices held steady
through most of
Fall ‘09
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 18
Phoenix MSA Phoenix: New Sellers less confident
One of six SPCSI markets that moved positively in Nov ’09
Peaked in July,
but… Short
sales/REOs take
longer to close
5
6. Scottsdale’s Lagging Luxury Market… Atlanta MSA
Spring ‘09 gains gone– back to Jan 2009 price levels
ATXR peaked in August, reported November
It’s bad enough being a Cubs fan... City Trends ≠ MSA Trends
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 23
6
7. The Northwest: Seattle & Portland Grab an umbrella…
Strong stock
market through
2008
2009 Market: Cause & Effect? 2010 – Now What?
Fed will stop supporting mortgage markets
Price Floor Evidence Are private lenders going to pick up the slack?
Will RMBS resume to off-load risk?
Stimulus Response
The Annual Macy’s Sale, er, Home buyer tax
Government Mortgage Rates credit re-expires in April ’10
Expect ST strength through July/August as
homes going to contract in April close, then
fall off in latter half of 2010
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 27 Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 28
7
8. And then…? The 2011 Crystal Ball
Supply & Demand metrics Prices start the same by year end 2010
Shadow inventory Double dip recession means we’re exactly the
same place in Jan ‘11 as now.
Infrastructure & Political Will
Even with significant economic recovery,
economists generally agreed that massive
private lending expansion required, which is
clearly not evident right now
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 29 Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 30
And Finally… Give us a call
Scott Sambucci, VP, Data Analytics
Altos Research RE Derivatives Report
scott@altosresearch.com
Stats Datasheet for the fellow “data geeks” (415) 931 7942 - direct
out there http://blog.altosresearch.com
Invitation to view of Data & Market Analytics Twitter: @AltosResearch
Platform Scott Macwhinnie, Sales Manager, Institutional
Attending the American Securitization Forum & Corporate Markets
next week? Let us know. scottm@altosresearch.com
Check out http://blog.altosresearch.com 646-435-1100- direct
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 31 Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 32
8