Vigil is a real-time news alert system for Commodity, FX and Equities traders, mapping clusters of individuals describing unfolding unforeseen events, using Geolocation information within unstructured social data - in other words we can alert traders to unforeseen events (terrorist attacks, earthquakes, political upsets, traffic jams, freak weather, riots, events involving public figures) earlier than traditional news organisations, a phenomena that can be exploited for trading advantage

1. flux[x]
flux[x] adventures - VIGIL
A geolocation based alert platform for professional
traders
[x] fluxx adventures

2. flux[x]
Vigil – what it will be
/ “A real-time news alert system for Commodity, FX and
Equities traders, mapping clusters of individuals describing
unfolding unforeseen events, using Geolocation information
within unstructured social data”
In other words…
/ Often “social sensors” (people who are Tweeting, or using
Facebook / YouTube etc) talk about unforeseen events
(terrorist attacks, earthquakes, political upsets, traffic
jams, freak weather, riots, events involving public figures)
earlier than traditional news organisations, a phenomena that
can be exploited for trading advantage
[x] fluxx adventures

3. flux[x]
Where did the idea come from?
/ In 2011 we were involved
with a large piece of social
analytics research for a global
ETF provider
/ During the course of that
research we discovered
evidence of commodity
traders mining Twitter for
alpha by following farmers
and mining engineers
/ Further research validated the
idea of piggybacking on this
behaviour by creating a
technology to facilitate and
support it
[x] fluxx adventures

4. flux[x]
Why now?
/ Volume of data
 Social / environmental – significant rise in micro blogging (Twitter usage) and real time
news sharing (Facebook)
 Increase in academic research focused on social alert system since early 2011
/ Data & cloud affordability
 Full data “firehose” now available in manageable – and affordable chunks (GNIP and
more recently Datasift)
 Cloud & cheap compute – quantity of data (3,500+ tweets a second) requires large
amounts of storage and compute
/ Quality of data
 “Internet of things” – sensors in cars, road, buildings and on people will increase the
richness of the data we can use in the future
 The rise of smartphones has lead to a corresponding rise in geolocation information in
social data (around 5% and rising fast)
/ Finance community interest
 3 years ago social data wasn’t taken seriously – now use of unstructured data & complex
event processing is seen by many as the new basis of a trading edge
[x] fluxx adventures

5. flux[x]
Real Time Alerts Pre-empting News
/ Geopolitical events
• Working with a governmental client
we saw leading indicators spike after
the Tunisian "Burning Man“
incident, giving clear warning of the
“Arab spring” and its impact on oil
prices
/ Natural disasters
• In Japan, Tweets recorded seismic
activity 5 minutes, 40seconds before
even the JMA (Japan’s official
earthquake early warning system)
identified it – saw a 7% fall in
Toyota’s share price (amongst others)
/ Celebrity news
• In the case of Whitney Houston
death, Tweets reported the events 27
minutes before AP – lead to a 5% rise
in Sony’s share price
[x] fluxx adventures

6. flux[x]
What will Vigil look like?
[x] fluxx adventures

7. flux[x]
Top line technical architecture
Social Firehose Vigil Client
networks management System trader
Account
location lookup
API
100,000
keywords
Data reception
–
Browser
language, locati pCluster
Datasift interface
on and temporal dB
parse Cluster
Content put threshold is
into “holding” achieved and
pattern, awaiti alert is
ng delivered
“Firehose” confirmation
>10,000 pieces triggers
of content a
second
Keyword mng.
& dynamic base
lining
[x] fluxx adventures

8. flux[x]
Target Market
/ Core market
 Corporate traders, highly liquid and news sensitive markets:
/ FX / Commodities / Equities
 Quant hedge funds
/ Traders @ FS firms
/ Secondary market
 Independent professional traders
/ In trading categories (FX / Commodities / Equities)
 Semi professional
/ As a feed or app into spread betting platforms
[x] fluxx adventures

9. How we develop product – the lean flux[x]
methodology
/ Lean is a rapid, agile and cost effective way to test
the key assumptions on which a new business rests
/ We don’t create a full version of a product first off
/ Instead we build Minimum Viable Product (MVP) -
a controlled experiment into customer desirability
/ When we have proof a product is desirable, feasible
and viable – then we move to formal production
/ For an explanation of the process click here
[x] fluxx adventures

10. flux[x]
Beta testers
/ The lean approach relies on a proportion of beta
tester being prepared to help develop products
early on in their development in return for
 early access to new proprietary technology
 preferential rates
 the PR and marketing edge of being first
/ We will be working closely with beta testers
asking for detailed feedback on what is working
within the system – and what isn’t
[x] fluxx adventures

11. flux[x]
Vigil trials
/ A first version of the Vigil platform will be available
late summer
/ The platform will be web based with alerts delivered
via the browser and SMS
/ Clients who wish to use the system will be asked for
 a contribution to the hardware and data costs for their
implementation
 a 6 month contract providing rights to use the prototype
 corresponding commitment to provide feedback to the
Adventures team on the product
[x] fluxx adventures

12. flux[x]
Why you should get involved
/ Access to a platform that potentially offers a
significant trading edge using data few people in
the market currently use
/ Preferential rates on the system once the product
is full fledged
/ The satisfaction of being involved, at the earliest
possible stage, of a potentially ground-breaking
piece of technology
[x] fluxx adventures

13. flux[x]
We hope you’ll join us as a beta customer
/ We will work exclusively with a single client in
each asset class
/ All our work is covered under stringent
confidentiality agreements
/ If you are a professional trader and would like to
use the prototype of Vigil – then please drop me
a line mark.bjornsgaard@fluxx.uk.com
[x] fluxx adventures