Presentation to Boulder Rotary 1/22/13

1. Political ads
The 2012 presidential race & beyond

2. 2012 political ads
● FCC required top TV stations in top markets
to file ad buys online
● Record-setting money raised by presidential
campaigns
● Outside groups also spent heavily
● CU News Corps tracked Denver market ad
spending beginning Aug. 2

3. Data collection & analysis,
stories, tumblr

4. National volume record for
presidential race
Wesleyan Media Project

5. Colorado one of hottest
ad markets in nation
Wesleyan Media Project

6. Most ad money spent
in a few states
● Colorado
● Florida
● Nevada
● Ohio
● Iowa
● Denver was No. 2 media market, based on
Wesleyan analysis at the end of October

7. Denver ads (from Aug. 2 on)

8. Big differences -
candidates
● Obama campaign outspent Romney
campaign $10.3M to $6.1M
● Nationwide, Obama spent $266M vs.
Romney's $105M
● Obama got started in spring 2012
● Obama bought ad time early, through Nov. 6
● Romney started late because of primaries
● Romney bought ad time week-by-week

9. Big differences - outside
spending
● Super PACS supporting Romney outspent
those supporting Obama $7.7M to $3.9M
● Five super PACS supported Romney -
American Crossroads, Restore Our Future,
Crossroads GPS, Americans for Prosperity,
Americans for Job Security
● Three groups supported Obama - Piorities
USA, League of Conservation Voters,
Planned Parenthood

10. Super PACS nationally
● Those five GOP groups spent $176.7M
through the end of October
● The three Dem groups spent $36.5M
● The GOP Super PACS kept Romney
competitive, most analysts would say

11. Congressional races
● Total of $11.8 million at four Denver stations
from Aug. 2 on
● $6.7M for three Democratic candidates (one
won)
● $5.1M for three GOP candidates (two won)

12. Did ads make a difference?
● Some academics question the effectiveness
● Ads targeted undecided voters - about 10
percent - in fewer than a dozen states
● "The effects of the ads are always quite
small in a presidential race" one told us
● Another wrote that early Obama ads "did
little apparent damage" to Romney

13. What happened here?

14. Nate Silver & others say Colorado pushed Obama over

15. What mattered?
● Voter registration efforts
● Micro-targeting efforts online, via email
● Get-out-the-vote campaigns
● Romney campaign's digital GOTV efforts
faltered on Election Day

16. "The stars might lie, but the
numbers never do."
- Mary Chapin Carpenter

17. In the end...
● Advertising was a great financial boost for
Colorado television stations
● Polls in the state didn't show a lot of
variation; Obama always had a narrow lead
● Get-out-the-vote probably more effective use
of money than ads

18. But...
● The ads go on...
○ Mayors Against Illegal Guns
○ Americans for a Strong Defense
○ American Petroleum Institute
● Expect more issue ads in 2013 as OFA
becomes a nonprofit
● 2014 Senate and House races will be huge
in Colorado, with more outside money

19. Questions?

20. Contact info
@fishnette on Twitter
facebook.com/SandraCFish
linkedin.com/in/sandrafish
slideshare.net/sandrafish