Strategic Analysis of the North American and European Electric Commercial Vehicle Market document discusses: - Hybrid/electric light commercial vehicles are well-suited for intra-city delivery applications with their peak efficiency and lower operating costs. - Medium and heavy commercial vehicles support long-haul and intermodal transportation. - Factors such as increasing battery range and reducing costs will determine widespread adoption of electric commercial vehicles, especially for urban delivery fleets.

1. Strategic Analysis of the North American and European Electric
Commercial Vehicle Market
Sandeep Kar
Global Program Manager, Commercial Vehicle Research
Vishnu Muralidharan
Senior Research Analyst
With Special Guest
Jonathan M. Randall
Director, Sales & Marketing
Freightliner Custom Chassis Corporation
June 16, 2010

2. 22
1950s Urbanization
2000s Suburbanization
2015s Network City
2020s : Branded Cities
Hybrid/electric LCVs deliver peak efficiency and cost benefits in intra-city
areas.
HCVs, long-haul vehicles, and inter-modal transportation centers support
hub-and-spoke logistics infrastructure.
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road
Creation of the historic centre and districts
Third suburban area and cities along the
highways created, ring road overblown by the
urban sprawl
Ring Road
Motorway, Living
Areas growing
outside the ring
road as seen in
London
In the Developed World: Increasing Trend of De-Urbanization - Polarization of Commercial
Vehicle Classes and Rising Demand for Hybrid/Electric Commercial Vehicles
Source: Frost & Sullivan

3. 33
Smart Cities - Replacing “GREEN” with “SMART”
These 3 elements Will define the
‘Smart’ Mobility of the future

4. 44
Basic
Small
High Medium
MAV & SUV
Van
Others
Low Medium
0
2
4
6
8
10
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Volume Share in 2009
VehiclePurchaseCostIndexforaCSO
LowMediumHigh
More space and comfort.
Ideal for neighborhood
residential
Brand image for
business
customers
Ideal of city driving
Bubble Size: 2009 Carsharing Vehicles Volumes
Market for Carsharing: Market Share of Carsharing Fleet Segments
(Europe), 2009
531
3,470
2009 2016
Vans in
Carsharing Fleet (EU)
• Vansharing is a growing trend
within carsharing, catering to
business goods and household
transportation.
• Mobility of goods for urban
delivery are successfully partnered
within Vansharing (Examples in
Turin, Bologna and London)
• Vansharing encompasses the
same benefits offered to carsharing
such as parking areas, monetary
support as the vans always belong
to the same carsharing
organisations (CSO)
Smart Cities Will Feature Smart Companies Offering Smart Commercial Vehicle Mobility
Options
Vansharing is a niche market Mobility Car Sharing Mercedes
Vito
Streetcar VW
Transporter
CarCityClub Fiat
Doblò

5. 5M3A1-18
Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: 1.5 Tonnes Payload in Return-to-Depot
Applications Driving First Wave of Penetration
GCW / GVW 1*
(ton)
Load
Capacity
(ton) Typical Application
Pure Electric
Attractiveness
3.5 1.5 Urban distribution
7.5 4 Urban distribution
12 7.2 Urban distribution
18 11 Inter Urban
distribution
26 17 Long distance
40 25 Long distance
Best Fit for Electric Commercial Vehicles: Depot-based urban delivery fleets cover
known routes (typically under 100 miles) and they return to base every night where
they can be recharged
Without
Government
funds EV do
not have a
future, as
initial cost is
very high

6. 6
End-user Research: Key Desired Benefits of Powertrain Technologies Among Managers of
Largest Fleets in U.S. Point Towards Hybrid/Electric Commercial Vehicles as Solutions
Highest Ranking Benefits of Powertrain Technologies
(N=109)
59%
17%
5%
5%
6%
17%
19%
20%
9%
6%
6%
6%
6%
12%
18%
22%
10%
10%
8%
8%
5%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fuel Efficiency
Reliability
Reduced Maintenance Requirement
Longer Lifecycle
Attractive Lifecycle Costs
Effectiveness Under All Operating Conditions
Residual Value
Reduce Idling
Lower Weight Penalty
Low Level Emissions
Acces to Powertrain Support Infrastructure
#1 ranking #2 ranking #3 ranking
Note: Proportions less than three not shown numerically in chart.
Q: When purchasing powertrain technologies, please rank the top three benefits that are most
important to your fleet from the following list below?
Hybrid /Electric
Commercial
Vehicles- Offer
Solutions But Pose
Challenges Too!!
Solutions
Fuel Efficiency, Reduced
Maintenance, Low
Emissions, Reduce Idling,
Residual Value
Challenges
Reliability, Lifecycle Costs,
Effectiveness Under All
Operating Conditions,
Weight Penalty
Source: Frost & Sullivan

7. 7
Roadmap for Electric Commercial Vehicles: Advancements in battery technology will
determine widespread acceptance of electric vehicles in commercial sector as return on
investment is a key decision factor
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Electric Vehicles Market: Technology Roadmap for Electric Commercial Vehicles (Europe), 2009-2016
Performance
Battery
Motor
Infrastructure Fast Charging
Permanent Magnets
In-Wheel Motors
Driving distance / Charge up to 90 kms
Charge time 6 ~ 8 hours
Zebra (Sodium Nickel Chloride)
Lead Acid Batteries
2009 2015 ~ 2017
On-Board Charging
~ 200 kms
Battery Swapping
2011 ~ 2013
Lithium Ion
~ 300 kms
~ 1 hour < 15 minutes
Battery Capacity up to 16 kWh Up to 50 kWh 75 kWh and more
Ultra capacitors

8. 8
EU and NA Electric CV Market: Battery Price Reduction Key for Volume Growth
Jury is Out on the Optimal Li-ion
Technology for Sustainable Growth
one thing is certain…But the Future
is Li-ion…Pricing Trends Shows
South-bound Slide

9. 9
List of Major Electric Light Commercial Vehicles in Europe: Rapid Proliferation of OEMs
in both Sub and Plus 1 Ton Categories
European electric-LCV market
mostly consists of conversions
today
The sub 1 ton category payload consists
mainly of regional manufacturers, new entrants
such as Tata or Mahindra could compete in
this sector with their low cost platform
capabilities

10. 10
List of Major Electric Light and Medium Commercial Vehicles: Ford has the advantage of
being an early entrant in the North American LCV market.
2010
expectedn2000*150
Freightliner Custom
Chassis
(MT-45 walk in van
chassis)
nn7384150Smith Electric
(Based on Avia D75 )
2011
expectednPassenger version of
Transit Connect
Ford
(Tourneo Connect)
2012
expectedn1500*100*Daimler
(Sprinter Electric)
2011
expectedn2041100*Boulder Electric
n2000*65 ~ 75Electrorides
(Based on Isuzu N series)
2010
expectedn2000*100Modec - Navistar
2010
expectednn2000*115
EVI
(Based on Freightliner
Chassis)
2012
expectedn700*100*Fiat / Chrysler
(Fiat Doblo)
2010
expectedn750*80Ford
(Transit Connect)
Market
StatusClass
2-3
Vehicle Weight Class
Class
4 Class 5
Payload
(kg)
Range
(miles)Manufacturer
Note: Where ever applicable payloads are taken from medium wheelbase panel van / box van body style *Estimated Figures Available in market currently

11. 11
European Electric LCV Market: Production Forecast – OEMs Keen to Learn from Early
Adopters’ Experience, 2013-2016 Expected to Emerge as Period of Rapid Proliferation
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UnitShipments(Thousand)
Optimistic Frost & Sullivan Conservative
Growth Opportunities in the Commercial Truck Industry: Unit
Shipment Forecasts for Electric LCV (Europe), 2009-2016
•The European Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Market is
expected to grow during the forecast period (for the Frost &
Sullivan scenario) with a total of 165,201 units sold in 2016
at a CAGR of 110%
•Supermarket, parcel delivery, local municipals are likely be
the first adopters of these e-LCV.
•The above forecasts includes only car derived vans, Vans
and Light Trucks that have a GVW of 3.5* tonnes
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Ford
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Growth Opportunities in the Commercial Truck Industry: OEM
Model timeline for e-LCV (Europe), 2009
Daimler
e-LCV Model Timeline
0 10025 50 75
2013 Market Share (% of total e-LCV market in Europe)
2010 20142011 2012 2013
Transit
Connect
0 10025 50 75
2013 Market Share (% of total e-LCV market in Europe)
2010 20142011 2012 2013
Sprinter
e-LCV Model Timeline
Vito
Renault
0 10025 50 75
2013 Market Share (% of total e-LCV market in Europe)
e-LCV Model Timeline
2010 20142011 2012 2013
Kangoo

12. 12
North American Electric MCV Market: Class 4, seem very attractive for electrification
as intra city logistics distribution application perfectly suit electric vehicles
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UnitShipments(Thousand)
Optimistic Frost & Sullivan Conservative
North American Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: Unit
Shipment Forecasts for Electric MCV (2009 ~ 2016)
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
•The North American Electric Medium Commercial Vehicle Market is
expected to grow during the forecast period (for the Frost & Sullivan
scenario) with a total of 26,635 units sold in 2016 at a CAGR of 154%
•The above forecasts includes only Class 4,5 & 6 vehicles comprising
mainly of utility and logistics and delivery vehicles. The NA market is
likely to see a large share of e-MCV as most of the vehicles in this
class are best suited for electrification with their deployment in urban
distribution
Boulder Electric
Freightliner
North American Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: OEM Market
Share for e-MCV (2009)
Navistar
0 10025 50 75
2014 Market Share (% of total e-MCV market in North America)
e-LCV Model Timeline
2010 20142011 2012 2013
x
0 10025 50 75
2014 Market Share (% of total e-MCV market in North America)
e-LCV Model Timeline
2010 20142011 2012 2013
Boulder
van
0 10025 50 75
2014 Market Share (% of total e-MCV market in North America)
e-LCV Model Timeline
2010 20142011 2012 2013
Mt-45 chassis

13. 13
Since EV is going to be leased
telematics can be bundled as standard
product and included in lease plan (hidden)
EV will resemble commercial vehicle model
where OEMs and fleet owners will use
RVD / prognostics to better manage vehicles
Services like state of charge, booking
charging station requires new telematics
through connectivity – critical services
Electricity usage needs to be monitored
and EV drivers need to be billed – telematics
is going to be instrumental
Telematics is still an option and the high
cost of systems and services are transferred
to end consumer in open manner
Remote vehicle diagnostics including
elements like remote supervision and
Pro-active maintanence are still niche
Real time services require connectivity
and conventional users are not ready to pay
for such services as they see little value
Low degree of applicability of real-time 2 way
communication for billing and payments
Impact of New
Business Models
like Leasing and
Rentals
Need for
Diagnostics for
Better Maintenance
Enabling Real
Time Financial
Transactions
Need for New
Types of Services
Conventional Vehicle Electric VehicleKey Factors
Overall FitLow High
1 52 3 4
Low High
1 52 3 4
Overall Fit of Telematics and Connectivity Within Electric Vehicles is Driven by Solid
Use Cases Largely Absent for Conventional Vehicles

14. 14
Three studies were conducted simultaneously for both Europe and North America,
providing a holistic view of Customers Requirements from EV CVs
Fleet Drivers Fleet Managers
• Driving Habits (including distance
travelled, number of trips per day,
parking location, parking duration, weight
carried etc)
• The influence that drivers have in the
purchase of their fleet vehicle and their
attitudes and needs in relation to EVs
• Key decision makers in the choice of
their business fleet vehicles
• Understanding of the factors they
used to choose fleet vehicles and their
views and attitudes towards EVs
• Forecast EV uptake within businesses
and analysis of key elements such as
price, range and charging sensitivity
Fleet Drivers & Fleet Managers – Businesses of Focus:
Building & Maintenance Public Sector Postal / Courier Car Rental Business Delivery Utility & Telecoms
Consumers
• Driving habits, priorities
for new vehicle purchase,
interest in EVs, and
response to Business
Models
European Study
1982 interviews, over 50% in
London, Berlin, Paris & Milan European Study
248 Interviews: 50%
Passenger Vehicles, 25%
Small LCVs, 25% Large
LCVs
European Study
95 Fleet Managers
North American Study
1769 interviews, equal split
between Northeast, Midwest,
South and West regions.
North American Study – in progress
153 interviews
North American Study – in progress
80 Fleet Managers

15. 15
Electric Vehicle Preferences (cont.): Fleet Profiles and Interest in Electric Vehicles in
Europe – Government Fleets and Public Fleets Showing Highest Degree of Interest in Electric
Sector

16. 16
Electric Vehicle Preferences (cont.): Summary of LCV Customer Profiles United Kingdom –
Customers Willing to Bear Additional 10-15% Price Premium to Obtain Electric LCVs.
LCV Fleet Customers
(Interviewed for Consumer Study)
Current Fleet Size
% of EV’s in Fleet
Customer Brand preference
for e-LCVs
Inputs on Business Model
Vehicle Spec.
Requirement
TOTAL: ~2,000 vehicles
<1% (below 2.5Tonnes)
e-LCV= ~30-60
Business Delivery Services
Government
Government
Business Delivery Services
Postal & Courier Services
Utility
Weight Requirements
Normal Load
carried is
around 760-
860 kgFord TransitMercedes Sprinter
TOTAL: ~320 vehicles
e-LCV= 2%
NO BRAND
PREFERENCE
Height : 1950 mm
Width : 1850 mm
Length : 4100 mm
Capacity : 13 to 15 m3
• Business case review
needed
• Ready to spend ~10% more
than standard diesel
version
Height : 1950 mm
Width : 1850 mm
Length : 4100 mm
Capacity : 13 to 15 m3
TOTAL: ~700 vehicles
e-LCV= 2.8%
• Business case review
needed
• Ready to spend ~10%-15%
more than standard diesel
versionFord Transit
TOTAL: 12 vehicles
e-LCV= 2 Vehicles
• Ready to spend ~15% more
than standard diesel
version
Capacity and load carrying
capacity is critical.
TOTAL: ~30,000 vehicles Saloon Car with 5 passengers
is required
• Likely to shift towards H2
Fuel cell vehicle
NO BRAND
PREFERENCE
TOTAL: ~3,000 vehicles
Capacity and weight
requirements
Passenger Cars = min 4
seats, 4 door
CDV Vans = 0.6 – 0.8 tonnes
Essential to buy from a
leading brand
NA
NA
LCV Fleet Customers
(Interviewed for Consumer Study)
Current Fleet Size
% of EV’s in Fleet
Customer Brand preference
for e-LCVs
Inputs on Business Model
Vehicle Spec.
Requirement
TOTAL: ~2,000 vehicles
<1% (below 2.5Tonnes)
e-LCV= ~30-60
Business Delivery Services
Government
Government
Business Delivery Services
Postal & Courier Services
Utility
Weight Requirements
Normal Load
carried is
around 760-
860 kgFord TransitMercedes Sprinter
TOTAL: ~320 vehicles
e-LCV= 2%
NO BRAND
PREFERENCE
Height : 1950 mm
Width : 1850 mm
Length : 4100 mm
Capacity : 13 to 15 m3
• Business case review
needed
• Ready to spend ~10% more
than standard diesel
version
Height : 1950 mm
Width : 1850 mm
Length : 4100 mm
Capacity : 13 to 15 m3
TOTAL: ~700 vehicles
e-LCV= 2.8%
• Business case review
needed
• Ready to spend ~10%-15%
more than standard diesel
versionFord Transit
TOTAL: 12 vehicles
e-LCV= 2 Vehicles
• Ready to spend ~15% more
than standard diesel
version
Capacity and load carrying
capacity is critical.
TOTAL: ~30,000 vehicles Saloon Car with 5 passengers
is required
• Likely to shift towards H2
Fuel cell vehicle
NO BRAND
PREFERENCE
TOTAL: ~3,000 vehicles
Capacity and weight
requirements
Passenger Cars = min 4
seats, 4 door
CDV Vans = 0.6 – 0.8 tonnes
Essential to buy from a
leading brand
NA
NA

17. 17
39%
14%
0% 4%
63%
18%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Basic purchase
price
Cost of
ownership
across service
life of vehicle
Cost per mile
driven
Resale value Other
Consumer Analysis: U.S. Light Vehicle Fleet Market: “Cost of Ownership Across Service
Life of a Vehicle” is the primary basis for comparing vehicles
39%
PercentageofRespondents
With respect to costs, how
do you normally calculate
and compare vehicles?
Within how many years
would you expect to recover
the purchase/lease premium
of an EV from savings in
operating costs?
• Based on 80 interviews with fleet
managers.
• Other indicates all other financial
models that fleet managers may be
using; Further information on these
models is not available.
• Percentages may not add to 100
since they have been rounded off.
4.3
4.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Mean
Median
Number of Years
• Based on 80 interviews with
fleet managers.
• Based on interviews with 80 fleet managers

18. 18
Yes
47%
No
53%
All
Respondents
Question 34. When purchasing your current fleet did you consider and EV- LCV Fleet Managers
Building and
Maintenance
3%
Business
Delivery
Services
16%
Government
24%
Postal and
Courier
19%
Taxi or
private hire
19%
Utility or
Telecoms
19%
Building and
Maintenance
31%
Business
Delivery
Services
19%
Government
11%
Postal and
Courier
14%
Taxi or
private hire
6%
Utility or
Telecoms
19%
From the sample of LCV Fleet
Managers who said they had
considered an EV in their fleet- it is
the Government and the Utility &
Telecoms sectors that have been
the most responsive to EVs
It can be seen that the Building &
Maintenance industry have been
the most resistant to choosing EVs
as part of their fleet
Consumer Analysis: About half of the LCV managers interviewed have already considered EVs
as part of their fleet. With further models tailored to fleets, this number will increase.
* Based on 68 Fleet Manager interviews (those who have
LCV vehicles n their fleet)

19. 19
In the End…………………………..It is All About the Box!!!!!

20. 20
Electric Technology

21. 21
FCCC is the leading
chassis manufacturer of
alt-fuel products,
offering the widest
array in all markets in
which it operates
Compressed Natural Gas:
• Production since Mid-nineties
• Over 3,000 in service
• Current Program to replace Cummins B5.9G
Engine for future product offering
FCCC: Walk-In Van Hybrid – Alternate Fuels History
Hybrid Electric:
• Introduction in 2001 with joint development project with FedEx, Eaton,
and Environmental Defense
• Over 600 currently operating in revenue producing service and recently
surpassed the 5,000,000 mile milestone
• Released new features including: Low-Profile Transmission, Parking
Pawl, Engine Idle-Off, Auxiliary Power Generators, and E-PTO.
Hydraulic Hybrid:
• Development of Advanced Engine Off hydraulic hybrid technology
• Joint development project with Parker Hannifin.
• Initial field and Dynamometer testing complete to validate 70% - 90%
increase in fuel economy and customer technology acceptance.
• Initial orders received from several national fleets, including numerous
orders through the Clean Cities initiative.
• Start of Production Q1 2011

22. 22
• Powered by Enova’s 120 kW Plug-In Electric Drive System Technology and Tesla Lithium-Ion 55.5kWh
Batteries (3 Packs) (Battery pack same as Daimler Smart Car program)
• Driving Range 100-150 miles (vehicle duty cycle /application dependant)
• Supports driver comfort and safety features such as AC, heating, ABS braking, and power steering
• 6 to 8 hours for a full charge with 220-volt Single Phase System from zero state of charge
● Vehicle tailored for applications with a daily route of 100+ miles per day in a urban delivery vocation.
● Continuing work with suppliers to lower costs, improving the ROI.
●Current energy costs with current diesel fuel prices can realize a $15,000 / year savings
•$0.08 - $0.10 per mile energy cost vs. $0.25 - $0.48 per mile for comparable diesel or gas walk-in van
•Target ROI of 3-4 years
Electric vehicle development plans include new body features to add to aerodynamic – composite body to
provide a complete vehicle to the customer.
FCCC: Walk-In Van Electric Vehicle

23. 23
• External drivers like CO2 legislation, regulations by mega cities and
customer requirements promote the topic of Zero Emission Vehicles
(ZEVs).
• Today the market potential of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is not yet
assessable but could amount to significant volumes.
• Today, the major markets for battery electric trucks and vans are Europe
and NAFTA. In Asia low activities are observable. China is expected to
become an important market in the future as the government is strongly
pushing the topic.
• The BEV market is a new, fragmented, fast growing market with many
small niche players. A real consolidation of the market has not yet taken
place.
• Battery electric trucks and vans cover nearly all short-distance applications
(daily mileage <125 Miles).
• Vehicle performances are considered acceptable despite 2-3 times higher
pricing compared to diesel motels.
• The battery technology is the most important driver for performances and
pricing.
Market
Overview
Technology
Status
FCCC’s Perspective

24. 24
• Small companies dominate the market, also entering cooperation with
conventional OEMs.
• Most players are system integrators. Some non-conventional OEMs
produce their own base vehicles.
• A few of the key players in the market have already entered partnerships
with conventional OEMs.
• New suppliers are entering the market. Nearly all suppliers are non-
typical automotive suppliers with no global presence.
• There is no consolidation of the BEV suppliers but price pressure and
technology advancement will change the situation in the future.
BEV
OEMs
BEV
Suppliers
FCCC’s Perspective

25. 25
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Critical Elements to the CEO's Partnership Strategy), (July
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(www.frost.com/news)

26. 26
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27. 27
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28. 28
For Additional Information
Johanna Haynes
Corporate Communications
Automotive & Transportation
(210) 247-3870
johanna.haynes@frost.com
Craig Hays
Sales Manager
Automotive & Transportation
210-247-2460
craig.hays@frost.com
Sandeep Kar
Global Program Manager
Automotive & Transportation
416-490-7796
sandeep.kar@frost.com