The document summarizes the key impacts and implications of the ongoing Syrian civil war. At the national level, the war has devastated Syria and its people, resulting in over 470,000 deaths, over half the population being displaced, severe damage to infrastructure and the economy. Regionally, the war has increased tensions and the refugee crisis has financially and security burdened neighboring countries. Globally, the political vacuum has increased Russian influence, the refugee crisis is one of the largest since WWII, and the rise of extremist groups impacts global security. For Bangladesh, instability in the Middle East poses challenges but also opportunities for post-conflict reconstruction.

1. Syrian Civil War: Impact
on Global Peace and
Stability
Sajid Karim
Research Officer, BIISS
&
Md. Nazmul Islam
Research Officer, BIISS
In House Seminar
06 June 2016
1

2.  What is the geo-political significance of Syria?
 What are the main causes of Syrian civil war?
 Who are the key actors of Syrian civil war?
 What are their interests and what role are they playing?
 What are the implications of this war and how is this
war affecting the global peace and stability?
 What is the impact of Syrian civil war on Bangladesh?
2

3.  Geo-political Significance of Syria
 An Overview of Syrian Civil War
 Implications of the Syrian Civil War
 Conclusion
3

4.  The study is qualitative in nature and based on both
primary and secondary data
 Primary data has been collected through Interviews.
 Secondary data has been collected from books,
journals, reports, news clippings, seminar papers
and internet based articles.
4

5. Name Designation Date
Mr. Masudur Rahman Director General, West and Central
Asia Wing, Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Government of
Bangladesh
18 May 2016
Mr. K. M. Ali Reza Deputy Chief, Ministry of
Expatriates Welfare and Overseas
Employment, Government of
Bangladesh
19 May 2016
Mr. Shakirul Islam Chairman, Ovibashi Karmi
Unnayan Programme (OKUP)
02 June 2016
5

6. 6

7. 7

8.  Syria is surrounded by some of the largest energy-
rich counties of the world.
 Syria lies at the centre of two of the most crucial
future gas pipelines:
Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline (the “Islamic Pipeline”)
Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Syria-Turkey
pipeline (the “Qatar-Turkey Pipeline”)
 Syria is also a key strategic player for Iran and
Russia to uphold their interest in the Middle East.
8

9. 90%
8%
1% 1%
Figure 01: Ethnic groups in
Syria
Arab-90 %
Kurds-8 %
Armenians-
1%
Others-1 % 74%
10%
3%
3%
10%
Figure 02: Religious Groups in
Syria
Sunni-74%
Alawites-10%
Druze-3%
Other Muslim-
3%
Christians-
10%
9

10. Genesis
of the
Crisis
Key
Actors
Time line
of the
Conflict
10

11.  Counterinsurgency means government’s campaign to
restore order and ensure its own reach throughout the
geographical confines of the state against armed opponents
who aims at overthrowing the government. In this case,
counterinsurgency in Syria describes the Assad regime’s
attempts to regain control over the whole of its territory, an
objective which was abandoned by the fall of 2012.
 Civil war implies that controlling the entire territory within
the state is no longer feasible because the armed opposition
has become strong enough to stop government’s
advancement consistently. In case of Syria, the insurgency
transitioned to a civil war when the opposition forces
successfully overran regimes’ positions in the northern
region and closed to Damascus in 2012.
11

12.  Autocratic nature of President Bashar al-Assad
 Inevitable re-balancing of power along ethnic and
religious lines
 Deteriorated social and economic condition
 Competing gas interest among the countries of the
Middle East as well as Russia
 Water crisis in Syria
 Inadequate and faulty response from the
government to address the crisis
12

13. State
Level
Actors
Regional
Level
Actors
Global
Level
Actors
13

14. The government
of Baath Party
headed by
president
Bashar al-Assad
National Council of Syria, National
Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary
and Opposition Forces
Free Syrian Army
Jihadist Organisations like ISIS,
Jabhat-al-Nusra Front
14

15. Iran
Iraq
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Qatar
Jordan
UAE
Israel
15

16. Russia
China
USA
16

17. • The unrest began in the
southern city of Deraa
March 2011
• Free Syrian Army (FSA) was
formed by 7 defecting Syrian
officers
August 2011
• Jabhat al-Nusra – the new al-
Qaeda franchise in Syria
announced its creation.
January 2012
17

18. • Mr. Kofi Annan was appointed as
the UN-Arab League Joint Special
Representative for Syria.
February 2012
• For the first time, a UN official,
Herve Ladsous, UN’s head of
peacekeeping proclaimed Syria to
be in a state of civil war .
June 2012
• The International Committee of
the Red Cross also declared Syria
in the state of a civil war
July 2012
18

19. • ISIS was created.April 2013
• Government of Syria was accused
of using chemical weapon to
civilians.
August 2013
• A presidential election was held in
which Bashar al-Assad was
elected for the third term.
June 2014
19

20. • USA made its first military
intervention in Syria jointly with
five Arab allies.
September 2014
• Army of Conquest was formed by
eight Islamist rebel factions.March 2015
• Russia launched its first air strike
in Syria.September 2015
20

21. • Global powers initiated a peace process
in Vienna known as talks of the
International Syria Support Group (ISSG)
in which Iran took part for the forst time.
October 2015
• UN announced the formal start of
peace talk for Syria.February 2016
• The UN Security Council unanimously
adopted resolution 2268 on 26 February
2016 that demanded all parties to
comply with the terms of a USA-Russian
deal on a “cessation of hostilities”.
February 2016
21

22. Implications
of
the Syrian Civil War

27. Implications of the Syrian Civil War
1. Implications at National Level
2. Implications at Regional Level
3. Linking National and Regional Impacts with
Global Implications

28. Implications
at
National Level

29. According to the Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR),
it is estimated that the deadliest war has directly and
indirectly killed 470,000 Syrians.
Implications at National Level
 More than half (13.5 million ) of the country’s
population has been internally displaced.
The civil war has massively devastated Syria and its people

30.  Life expectancy has dropped from 70.5 years in 2010 to
an estimated 55.4 years in 2015 and mortality rate has
increased from 4.4 per thousand in 2010 to 10.9 per
thousand in 2015.
Implications at National Level
 More than half of all Syrian refugees are under the age
of 18 and most them have been out of school for years.
 The older children are forced to grow up too fast for
finding work and taking care of their families in
desperate circumstances.

31. Implications at National Level
 13.8 million Syrians have lost their source of livelihood
 Prices in conflict zones are much higher than
elsewhere in the country and in 2014 consumer prices
rose 53 per cent from 2013
Economic structure of Syria has almost been demolished.
 Poverty increased by 85 per cent in 2015.

32. Implications at National Level
The destruction within Syria has
devastated many Syrian cities and
historic sites. The war has affected
290 heritage sites including all 06
UNESCO World Heritage Sites in Syria.
Culture

34. Implications at National Level
Syria’s civil war is grinding down the country’s national
mechanism and creating the conditions for continuing the
conflict. Although the national government survives on
paper, but it does not exercise direct control over its
national security, services and institutions that might create
further mayhem within Syria.

35. Implications
at
Regional Level

36. Implications at Regional Level
 Challenge to
implement
Turkey’s Middle
East policy
known as
“zero problems
with
neighbours”.
 Shiite-Sunni
reconciliation
will become
more difficult.
 Kurd goals for
a single Kurd
state and will
raise tensions in
Turkey , Iraq and
Iran.
Tension
between Saudi
Arabia and Iran
might ignite
Shiite Sunni
conflict in a
larger context.
 A major influx of refugees
with approximately 500,000
displaced people.
 Existing anti-government
sentiment among Jordan’s
Salafist community may
increase.
 Refugee crisis
in Lebanon.
 Deepening the
political impasse
between the
country’s two
most powerful
political players-
March 8 (Shiite)
and March14
(Sunni) alliances.
 Possible transfer of chemical
weapons to Hezbollah.
 A rebel government with a
strong Islamist character is also
threat for Israel.

37. Implications at Regional Level
 The large presence of refugees takes a significant
financial toll as well as influence security environments
of the various states along Syria’s border.
 Sectarian tensions worsened by the war will matter to
influence both domestic and regional political systems.
 Pre-existing tensions, particularly in Lebanon and
Iraq and Turkey could deteriorate further and might
turn into open conflict.

38. Implications
at
Global Level

39. Implications at Global Level
 Political vacuum created by the crisis has allowed
Russia to attain the status of a dominant player in
shaping the future of the Middle East.
 Corrosive effect on West’s relations with both Russia and
China and disagreement between the both have increased
the rift.
 Biggest wave of disorderly migration after the Second
World War. According to UNHCR, total number of
worldwide displaced people reached 59.5 million at the
end of 2014, with a 40 per cent increase taking place
since 2011 and among them Syrian refugees became the
largest refugee group.

40. Implications at Global Level
 Adverse impact on global oil market.
 Rise of ISIS and other extremist organisations.
 Destruction of Syria’s precious culture is a great loss
for global culture and heritage.
 Possibility of an inclusive peace process.

41. Implications
on
Bangladesh

42. Implications on Bangladesh
 Instability in Syria in particular and in the Middle East as
a whole might hamper the overseas employment market of
Bangladesh.
6,07,798
4,09,253 4,25,684
5,55,881
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
2012 2013 2014 2015
TotalNumberofOverseas
Employment
Year

43. Implications on Bangladesh
 Bangladeshi diaspora living in the Middle Eastern region
might get radicalised by the ideology of the rising
extremist groups.
 Recent tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran has posed
a challenge for Bangladesh.
 Syrian crisis might open new window of opportunity for
Bangladesh as the country can send skilled and semi-
skilled workers to Syria to assist in post-conflict
reconstruction stage.

46. Open Discussion