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ریشه معضل مسکن و اجاره نشینی چیست؟
1.
56,6ﺷﻬﺮي ﻫﺎي ﺧﺎﻧﻪ
از درﺻﺪ اﺳﺖ ﻫﺎ آن ﻣﺎﻟﻚ ﺗﺼﺮف در. 33,2ﺷﻬﺮي ﻫﺎي ﺧﺎﻧﻪ از درﺻﺪ اﺳﺖ ﻣﺴﺘﺎﺟﺮان ﺗﺼﺮف در. ﺗﺼﺮف ﻧﺤﻮه10,2ﺧﺎﻧﻪ از درﺻﺪ اﺳﺖ ﻧﺎﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﻬﺮي ﻫﺎي. ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻓﺮض 1ﻫﺮ از ﺧﺎﻧﻮار4ﻛﻪ ي ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﻳﻚ ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ ،ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﺎﺟﺮ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻧﻴﺰ را ﻣﺴﻜﻮﻧﻲ واﺣﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ داﺷﺘﻪ ﺗﻤﻠﻚ. ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻓﺮض 30در ﻫﺎ ﺧﺎﻧﻪ اﻳﻦ از درﺻﺪ ﻫﺎ آن ﻣﺎﺑﻘﻲ و اﺳﺖ آن ﻣﺎﻟﻚ ﺗﺼﺮف ﻫﺎي ﺧﺎﻧﻪ ،ﺧﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﺎي ﺧﺎﻧﻪ را ﻳﺎ و ﻧﺸﺪه ﺳﺮﺷﻤﺎري اﺳﺘﻴﺠﺎري ﺑﺴﺘﮕﺎن ﺗﺼﺮف ﺗﺤﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﻲ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ،ﻣﺎﻟﻚدﻫﺪ. ﻳﻚ ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ ،ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎ ﻧﻮع اﻳﻦ ﺗﻤﺎم ﺗﻤﻠﻚ ﺗﺤﺖ در را ﻣﺴﻜﻮﻧﻲ واﺣﺪ دارﻧﺪ ﺧﻮد. ﻳﻚ ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ ﻛﻪ ﺷﻬﺮي ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎي درﺻﺪ دارﻧﺪ اﺧﺘﻴﺎر در را ﻣﺴﻜﻮﻧﻲ واﺣﺪ= 56,6*100%+33,2*25%+10,2*30%= 10,46ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮن ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺷﻬﺮي ﻣﺴﻜﻮﻧﻲ واﺣﺪﻫﺎي ﻛﻞ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﺑﺎ اﺳﺖ15,6واﺣﺪ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮن ﻣﺎﻟﻚ ﻫﺮ ﺗﺼﺮف ﺗﺤﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺗﻌﺪاد=ﺗﻌﺪاد ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺷﻬﺮي ﻣﺴﻜﻮﻧﻲ واﺣﺪﻫﺎي ﻛﻞ ﺗﻌﺪاد دارﻧﺪ ﺧﻮد ﺗﻤﻠﻚ ﺗﺤﺖ را ﻣﺴﻜﻮﻧﻲ واﺣﺪ ﻳﻚ ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ ﻛﻪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻞ=15,6/10,46= 1,49 ﺑﺮ ﻋﻼوه ،ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﻜﻴﻦ6ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻃﻮر ﺑﻪ ،ﺧﻮد ي ﺧﺎﻧﻪ داﻧﮓ3ﻳﻚ از داﻧﮓ دﻳﮕﺮ ﺧﺎﻧﻪ(ﺟﻤﻌﺎ9داﻧﮓ)دارﻧﺪ ﺗﻤﻠﻚ ﺗﺤﺖ را.ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ در 33،ﻛﺮده ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ اﻗﺪام ﺣﺎل ﺑﻪ ﺗﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻳﻲ از درﺻﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻧﻪ و ﺑﻮده ﻣﺴﻜﻦ در ﮔﺬاري ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟ ﭘﺪﻳﺪه اﻳﻦ دﻟﻴﻞ: 1)ﺗﻮرم اﻳﺠﺎد و ﭘﺸﺘﻮاﻧﻪ ﺑﻲ ﭘﻮل ﺧﻠﻖ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ،ﻣﺘﻤﺎدي ﺳﺎﻟﻴﺎن ﻃﻲ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻬﺎي ﺗﺴﻠﻂ و دوﻟﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ اﻧﻀﺒﺎﻃﻲ ﺑﻲ دﻟﻴﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻀﻤﻦ ﺗﻮرماﺳﺖ ﺑﻮده. 2)داد ﻓﺮاري ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ در ﮔﺬاري ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ از را ﮔﺬاران ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ،دوﻟﺖ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﺨﺶ در ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ دﺳﺘﻮري ﻛﻨﺘﺮل و ﻛﺎر و ﻛﺴﺐ ﻓﻀﺎي ﺑﻮدن ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐاﺳﺖ ه. 3)ﻣﺘﻮرم ،ﺗﻮرم ﺑﺎ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻣﻲ ﻛﻪ اﺳﺖ داده ﺳﻮق ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺑﻪ را ﮔﺬاران ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ،ﺑﺎﻻ ﺗﻮرم ﻛﻨﺎر در ﮔﺬاري ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻧﺒﻮدﭘﺲ ارزش و ﺷﻮد اﺳﺖ ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﻤﺎن ،ﺑﺨﺶ اﻳﻦ ﻛﻪ ﻛﻨﺪ؛ ﺣﻔﻆ را آﻧﺎن اﻧﺪاز. ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟ ﭘﺪﻳﺪه اﻳﻦ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ:و ﻛﺎر و ﻛﺴﺐ ﻓﻀﺎي ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ،دوﻟﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ اﻧﻀﺒﺎط ﺑﺎ اﮔﺮ ﻛﻪ اﺳﺖ ﮔﺬاري ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ،ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ در ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳﻮم ﻳﻚ ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ،ﻛﻨﺪ ﭘﻴﺪا ﺟﺬاﺑﻴﺖ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﺨﺶ و ﺑﺮود ﺑﻴﻦ از ﺑﺨﺶ اﻳﻦ ﺟﺬاﺑﻴﺖ ،ﺗﻮرم ﻛﺎﻫﺶ33%ﺷﻮد ﻣﻲ ﻛﺎﺳﺘﻪ ﮔﻴﺮي ﭼﺸﻢ ﻃﻮر ﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ،ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺷﺪ ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ،ﻣﺴﺘﺎﺟﺮان ﺗﻤﺎم و. ﻧﻜﺘﻪ:ﺑﺎز ﺳﻔﺘﻪ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺟﺬاﺑﻴﺖ ﺗﺪاوم ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ در و ،ﻛﻼن اﻗﺘﺼﺎد و ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ در ﻣﻀﻤﻦ ﺗﻮرم ﺗﺜﺒﻴﺖ دﻟﻴﻞ ﺑﻪ ،ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻚو ان ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ در ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻔﺘﻪ ﻛﺮدن رﻗﺎﺑﺖ دﻟﻴﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﻛﻨﻨﺪه ﻣﺼﺮف ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺿﻴﺎن ﺑﺮ ﻓﺸﺎر ﺗﺪاوم.ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ در ﺳﺎﺧﺖ وام ﻳﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻴﺎزي ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﻳﻦ اﻧﺪاﺧﺖ ﺟﺬاﺑﻴﺖ از ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻔﺘﻪ ﺑﺮاي را ﺑﺨﺶ اﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ. ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟ ﻧﺸﻴﻨﻲ اﺟﺎر و ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﻀﻞ رﻳﺸﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ؟ ﺣﺬف ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﺑﺎزار از را ﺑﺎزي ﺳﻔﺘﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي اﺳﺖ ﻛﺎﻓﻲ ﻳﺎ دارﻳﻢ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ و ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻴﺎزي آﻳﺎ
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