1. Quantitative Analysis for Business Lecture 10 September 13th, 2010 http://www.slideshare.net/saark/ibm401-lecture-10
2. Example i Data shown is average monthly production of a commodity for the year 1948 – 1958 Construct a 5 year moving average Construct a 4 year centered moving average
3. Example ii Monthly sales of A4 copy paper have been recorded over 12 months (Year 1) Using F0 = 1700, which α do you recommend? α = 0.2 α = 0.5 From selected α, calculate Trend using β = 0.1 and T0 = 100
4. Example ii Supposed sales team has come back with additional data of Year 2 sales, find seasonal index using 4 period centered-moving-average Deseasonalize the data
5. Example ii Using the Forecast method obtained from part 1 of this question, calculate tracking signal of June of year 1.
9. Example ii Determining which α, choose the one with lowest MAD New forecast = Last period’s forecast + (Last period’s actual demand - Last period’s forecast)
14. Example ii Find seasonal index using 4 period centered-moving-average Use CMA formula Deseasonalizethe data Find seasonal index from CMA st = Actualt / CMAt
18. Example ii Using the Forecast method obtained from part 1 of this question, calculate tracking signal of June of year 1 RSFE = Ratio of running sum of forecast errors = ∑(actual demand in period i - forecast demand in period i)