Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live audio webcast of the second quarter 2016 results on Thursday July 28, 2016
3. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves.
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society
of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 2P + 2C definitions.
Resources and potential: Our use of the term “resources and potential” are consistent with SPE 2P + 2C + 2U definitions.
Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact.
Shales: Our use of the term ‘shales’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this release “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes
used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in
general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell
subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this release refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated
arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither
control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture,
partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This release contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical
fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and
assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these
statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing
management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’,
‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and
similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in
the forward-looking statements included in this release, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c)
currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with
the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries
and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market
conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements
in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. There can be no assurance that future dividend payments will match or
exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this release are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in
this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year
ended December 31, 2015 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this release and
should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this release, July 28, 2016. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries
undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ
materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this release.
With respect to operating costs synergies indicated, such savings and efficiencies in procurement spend include economies of scale, specification standardisation and operating efficiencies
across operating, capital and raw material cost areas.
We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this release that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC.
U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
Definitions & cautionary note
3
4. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 4
Strategy
“Let’s make the future”
Leader: value +
influence
Reducing our
carbon intensity
Shared value
with society
World-class
investment case
STRATEGIC
Focus portfolio on resilient positions
Invest in advantaged projects
Value chain integration
FCF/share + ROCE growth
Conservative financial
management
OPERATIONAL
Reset cost and capital spending
First class execution projects +
operations
Unrelenting focus on HSSE and
licence to operate
5. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016
Re-shape Shell
Driving strategy in multiple time horizons
Relentless portfolio high-grading
Strong free cash flow and returns
Cash engines: today Growth priorities: 2016+ Future opportunities: 2020+
Competitive + resilient
Funds dividends + balance sheet
FCF + ROACE pathway
Affordable growth in
advantaged positions
Material value + upside
Managed exposure
Path to profitability
Cash engines 2020+
CONVENTIONAL
OIL + GAS
CHEMICALS
OIL
PRODUCTS
DEEP WATERINTEGRATED
GAS
OIL SANDS
MINING
SHALES NEW
ENERGIES
5
6. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016
Thousand boe/d Thousand boe/dUnit costs $/boe
6
Operating costs exclude identified items; deep water excludes idle rig costs
Re-shape Shell
H1 2016 delivery
Reducing costs + improving uptime
Delivering growth projects
HSSE priority
Cash engines: today Growth priorities: 2016+ Future opportunities: 2020+
Conventional oil and gas Deep water Shales
Unit costs $/boe Unit costs $/boe
Unit operating costs Production (RHS)
Thousand boe/d
7. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016
Competitive financial data as published. Free cash flow: cash flow from operations less cash used in investing activities. $/ADR for European companies.
ROACE underlying: European companies: CCS basis excluding identified items. US companies: reported earnings excluding special non-operating items. Capital employed on gross debt
basis.
Financial dashboard
%
Gearing
%
ROACE
$/share
Free cash flow per share
%
Total shareholder return
Shell Peer group
3 years to Q2 2016 12 months to Q2 2016
9. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 9
Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items
$ billion
Earnings Q2 2015 to Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Financial highlights
$ billion Q2 2015 Q2 2016
Upstream (0.5) (1.3)
Integrated Gas 1.4 0.9
Downstream (CCS) 3.0 1.8
Corporate & minorities (0.1) (0.3)
CCS net earnings 3.8 1.0
CCS earnings, $ per share 0.60 0.13
Cash flow from operations 6.1 2.3
ROACE (%) 7.6 2.5
Dividends 3.0 3.7
Dividend, $ per share 0.47 0.47
10. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 10
Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items
$ billion
Earnings Q2 2015 to Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Financial highlights
Environment Choice
11. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 11
Cash investment: Cash flow from investing activities
Cash performance + payout
$ billion
Cash flow
$ billion
Dividend, buyback + gearing
$ billion, 2016 Q2 4Q rolling
Cash generation
Priorities for cash:
Debt reduction
Dividends
Buybacks + capital investment
CFFO
Cash investment Free cash flow (RHS)
Cash investment
BG acquisition – cash element
Dividend and buyback
Downstream + Corporate
Dividend declared
Buyback
End period gearing (RHS)
$ billion
%
Integrated Gas
Upstream
~20
43
Gearing range
CFFO CFFI
12. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 12
Integration with BG
BG performance
Thousand boe per day
Queensland LNG
Thousand boe per day
Brazil pre-salt
$ billion
Synergies: BG
Production
Number of cargoes delivered in the quarter (RHS)
1st LNG Train 1
Dec 2014
T2 start up
Nov 2015 #
Cidade Itaguaí
Q3 2015
FPSO Cidade de Maricá
Q1 2016
Actions taken for ~50% of synergies capture:
Staff + contractors
Offices
Exploration
Procurement + others
2.5
4
4.5
ExplorationCosts
13. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 13
* $60 oil price scenario 2018 (2016 RT Brent)
Manage down-cycle
Pulling levers to manage financial framework
2016-18 levers
Divestments
Reduce
capital
investment
Reduce
operating
costs
Deliver new
projects
Reducing our cash break-even
Further options available
+/- $10 Brent = ~5 billion CFFO
$ billion
2015 baseline:
Shell + BG
2016
2017-2018
potential
Operating costs 46
Trend to 40
(underlying)
Multi-billion p.a.
Capital investment 36 ~29 25-30
Divestments 6 + 5
6-8 in
progress
30 over
2016-18
Projects start-up post-2014
(CFFO)
n/a ~$2 billion
~10 billion
by 2018*
14. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 14
Manage down-cycle
Divestments
Integrated gas split out from Upstream from 2011 onwards
$ billion
Divestment program
$30 billion 2016-18
Progressing $6-8 billion 2016
5-10 countries; ~10% of production
Downstream/Corporate High grading ‘tail’
Infrastructure + mature positions
Refocus portfolio
Upstream
Integrated Gas
2016-2018 completed + announced $ billion
Completed – MLP 0.8
– Denmark marketing 0.3
– N.Z.: Maui pipeline 0.2
– MGL IPO 0.1
– Others 0.1
Total completed 1.5
Announced – Showa Shell ~1.4
– Malaysia refining
~0.2– Anasuria cluster
– Maclure
Total announced ~1.6
TOTAL ~3.1
In progress – Motiva JV end
– N.Z.: upstream
strategic review
– Thailand strategic
review
– Selective North Sea
strategic review
Divestments
Reduce capital
investment
Reduce
operating costs
Deliver new
projects
15. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016
25-30
15
2016 excludes BG purchase price
$ billion
Capital investment
Manage down-cycle
Lower & more predictable capital investment
Planning for $25-$30 billion range
$30 billion/year ceiling
Trending lower in range today
Options to further reduce below $25 billion if warranted
Shell BG
-25%
Divestments
Reduce capital
investment
Reduce
operating costs
Deliver new
projects
Shell + BG C.I. on a cash basis
58
47
41
36
53
43
37
33 31 ~2929 ~26
18. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 18
Deliver new projects
Conventional exploration: progress H1 2016
Million boe
Fort Sumter discoveryGoM: cumulative resources added (2010-2016)
Added ~1.3 billion boe in GoM 2010+
Heartland + near field focus; vicinity to infrastructure; deep geological basin knowledge
Divestments
Reduce capital
investment
Reduce
operating costs
Deliver new
projects
Appomattox
Vito
Cardamom
South Deimos
Vicksburg
Vito appraisal
Appomattox
appraisal
Rydberg
Kaikias
Powernap
Kaikias appraisal
Powernap appraisal
Kepler North
Fort Sumter
Oil discovery in Gulf of Mexico heartland;
Norphlet play
>125 million boe resources added, with follow-
up wells in 2016 and 2017
Shell 100 %
Shell lease
Discovery
Fort Sumter
Rydberg
VicksburgAppomattox
future Appo TLP
Mississippi canyon Desoto canyon
TLP
20. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 20
Transformation
CREATE A
WORLD CLASS
INVESTMENT CASE
Improved capital
efficiency: reduced
investment/FCF ratio
Energy transition:
CO2 footprint & new
energies strategy
Simpler company: Exit
~10% production;
5-10 countries
Less cost + fewer
people with BG than
Shell stand-alone:
12,500 fewer staff
Capital efficiency:
2013 spending
halved & $45 billion
mitigated
Improving our
metrics:
FCF/share; ROCE;
net debt
$30bn divestments:
Innovative deals like
Motiva, Showa
and MLP
Portfolio growth:
1 mboe/d adds
$10 bln cash flow
2019-2021
average
2013-2015
average
Brent
ROACE
~$60
~10%
~$90
8%
Organic free cash flow $20-25 billion p.a.$5 billion p.a.
$60 oil price scenario (2016 RT Brent)
22. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016
Q3 2016 Outlook
Q3 – Q3 OUTLOOK: Year-ago baseline reflects Shell’s earnings seasonality
Upstream
Nigeria SPDC security impact: ~-35 kboe/d
Integrated gas
Maintenance: ~-15 kboe/d
Downstream
Refinery availability marginally increase
Chemicals availability increase
Divestment impact Marketing volumes: ~-200 kboe/d
PPA - depreciation charge: up to $0.3 billion
Shell + BG earnings sensitivity (2016):
Brent: $10/bbl Brent +/- ~$5 billion earnings per annum, of which:
Upstream +/- ~$3 billion
Integrated Gas +/- ~$2 billion (4-6 month LNG price lag versus Brent)
Henry Hub: $1/mmbtu +/- ~$250 million earnings per annum
22
23. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 23
Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items
$ billion
Earnings Q2 2015 to Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Upstream results
Environment Choice
24. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 24
Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items
$ billion
Earnings Q2 2015 to Q2 2016
Q2 2016
Integrated gas results
Environment Choice
25. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016
Choice: +30%
25
Q2 2016
Oil and gas production
Million boe per day
Upstream + Integrated Gas – oil & gas
Million tonnes
LNG liquefaction volumes
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
2.75
2.50
26. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016 26
Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items
Q2 2016
Downstream results
$ billion
Earnings Q2 2015 to Q2 2016
$ billion
Earnings mix
Marketing
Refining & Trading
Chemicals
27. Royal Dutch Shell July 28, 2016
$/barrel
Shell oil & gas realisations
$/barrel
Industry refining margins
$/tonne
Industry chemicals margins
Q2 2016
Prices & margins
$/mmbtu
US ethane
Western Europe naphtha
NE/SE Asia naphtha
US West Coast
US Gulf Coast coking
Rotterdam complex
Singapore
Oil
Gas (RHS)
27
28. Royal Dutch Shell plc
July 28, 2016
Second quarter 2016 results
Re-shaping Shell,
to create a world-class investment case
“Let’s make the future”