Webcast presentation Royal Dutch Shell plc third quarter 2013 results
1. DELIVERING INNOVATIVE &
COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE
THIRD QUARTER 2013 RESULTS
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
31 OCTOBER 2013
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
31 October, 2013
1
Lubricants Zhuhai blending and filling plant, China, 2009
2. DELIVERING INNOVATIVE &
COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE
SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
31 October, 2013
2
FLNG Prelude Keel laying, S Korea, 2013
3. DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal
Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us”
and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by
identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which
Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies
in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are
referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term
“Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 23% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership
interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other
than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are
based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or
events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the
potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and
assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’,
‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There
are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the
forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for
Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental
and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such
transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments
including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l)
political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of
projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are
expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking
statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2012 (available at
www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this
presentation, 31 October, 2013. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred
from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this
presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.
We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discovery potential, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us
from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website
www.sec.gov. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
31 October, 2013
3
4. Q3 2013 OVERVIEW
Q3 2013 results
Q3
2012
Q3
2013
UPSTREAM
4.9
3.5
Higher exploration charges + maintenance
DOWNSTREAM (CCS)
1.7
0.9
Nigeria security issues
CORPORATE & MINORITIES
0.0
0.1
Integrated Gas + Chemicals growth
CCS NET EARNINGS
6.6
4.5
CCS EARNINGS, $ PER SHARE
1.05
0.71
Industry refining headwinds
$ billion
Growth delivery
4 new production start-ups
Carmon Creek final investment decision
CASH FROM OPERATIONS
9.5
SHARE BUY BACKS
0.1
1.5
DIVIDENDS
2.8
2.8
DIVIDEND, $ PER SHARE
0.43
Winning bid for Libra
10.4
0.45
Capital discipline + long term approach
2013 announced acquisitions ~$10 billion
>$4 billion buy-back completed; up to $5
billion ’13
Driving tough portfolio choices
Earnings CCS basis, Earnings and EPS excluding identified items. Dividends distributed in the quarter
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
31 October, 2013
4
5. PRICES & MARGINS
SHELL OIL & GAS REALISATIONS
INDUSTRY REFINING MARGINS
INDUSTRY CHEMICALS MARGINS
$/barrel
$/barrel
$/tonne
12
1000
$/mscf
8
10
110
800
8
7
600
6
100
4
6
90
400
2
200
0
80
5
Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313
Oil
Gas (RHS)
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
0
-2
Q312 Q412 Q113
US West Coast
US Gulf Coast coking
Rotterdam complex
Singapore
31 October, 2013
Q213 Q313
Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313
US ethane
Western Europe naphtha
NE/SE Asia naphtha
5
7. Q3 2013 OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE + OUTLOOK
UPSTREAM
UPSTREAM
million boe/day
million tonnes
4
6
4
2
Growth from Pearl GTL, Malaysia, US LRS
65 kboe/d Nigeria sabotage Q3-Q3
Q3-Q3 underlying growth
1% oil & gas; 4% LNG
2
0
0
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Oil
Gas
Q2 2013
DOWNSTREAM
Q3 2013
LNG Sales (RHS)
Improved Chemicals + Refinery availability
Underlying volume increase
DOWNSTREAM
% availability
volume
100
7
95
90
5
85
80
75
3
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Refinery availability
Chemicals availability
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Oil products sales (mln bbl/d)
Chemicals sales (million tonnes)
31 October, 2013
Q4 2013 OUTLOOK
CONTINUED NIGERIA DOWNTIME
UPSTREAM MAINTENANCE
- 60 KBOE/D Q4-Q4
- 0.9 MT LNG Q4-Q4
GTL
CONTINUED HIGH EXPLORATION
CHARGE
7
8. PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT Q3 2013
Acquisition / entry
Notable
discovery /
option progress
FID
Carmon Creek
FID
(80 kboe/d)
FUTURE
OPPORTUNITIES
Start-ups
Majnoon
(175 kboe/d)
Kashagan
(300 kboe/d)
Nigeria asset
sales underway
Eagle Ford,
Niobrara ,
Mississippi Lime,
assets for sale
RESOURCES
PLAYS
DEEP-WATER
Divestment /
(Project reframing)
Coulomb North
increased equity
(to 100%)
BC-10 pre-emption 23%
Libra entry
INTEGRATED
GAS
BC-10 Massa
Phase 3
(28 kboe/d)
Browse FLNG
concept selection
BC-10 Phase 2
(35 kboe/d)
North Rankin
Redevelopment
UPSTREAM
ENGINE
Harburg refinery
sale EU
approved
DOWNSTREAM
ENGINE
2 FINAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS; 165 KBOE/D START UPS; CAPITAL
DISCIPLINE DRIVING PORTFOLIO CHOICES
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
31 October, 2013
8
9. TOP 5 PROJECT START-UPS ‘13-’14
Kashagan phase 1
Ramp-up challenges
Gumusut-Kakap
Commissioning is
progressing
Mars-B
Commissioning is
progressing
Cardamom
Auger top-side work for
Cardamom completed
Repsol LNG
Progressing to completion
Auger platform for Cardamom tie-back
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
31 October, 2013
Mars-B – Oct 2013
Hook-up of risers to the Gumusat-Kakap FPS – Q3 2013
9
10. PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT
CARMON CREEK; LIBRA
CARMON CREEK FID, CANADA
LIBRA ENTRY, DEEP WATER BRASIL
Parque das Conchas
(BC-10)
Bijupirá/Salema
LIBRA
80 kboe/day in-situ heavy oil project
Shell 20% partner in giant Libra field
Bitumen export options to existing refineries
Signature bonus $1.4 billion
~2017 start-up
Potential for 1.4 million barrels per day and
Shell 100%
8 -12 billion barrels of oil resources*
Minimum work commitment – 3D seismic, 2 wells
and extended well test by 2018
* Agência Nacional do Petróleo (ANP) estimates
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
31 October, 2013
10
11. BALANCING LONG TERM INVESTMENT + COMPETITIVE PAYOUT
GROUP 12 MONTHS CASH PERFORMANCE
BUSINESS 12 MONTH CASH PERFORMANCE
$ billion
$ billion
60
40
Uses
Sources
Sources
Uses
30
40
20
20
0
Uses
10
0
Sources
Asset sales
Acquisitions
CFFO excl. WC movements
Working capital movements
Capex
Dividend
$ billion
%
20
30
10
15
0
0
2009
-10
2010
Free cash flow
Gearing (RHS)
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
2011
2012
Dividend
Buyback
31 October, 2013
13Q3
12 months
rolling
Upstream
Downstream
Buy-backs
CASH GENERATION + CAPITAL
DISCIPLINE
NET SPENDING REDUCTION 2014:
~$10 BLN ACQUISITIONS
ANNOUNCED 2013
DIVESTMENTS TO INCREASE
2014 - 2015
11
12. SUMMARY
Q3 2013 results
Industry refining headwinds
Higher exploration charges + maintenance
Nigeria security issues
Integrated Gas + Chemicals growth
Growth delivery
4 new production start-ups
Carmon Creek final investment decision
Winning bid for Libra
Capital discipline + long term approach
2013 announced acquisitions ~$10 billion
>$4 billion buy-back completed; up to $5
billion ’13
Driving tough portfolio choices
Mars-B platform on final location
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
31 October, 2013
12
13. QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
THIRD QUARTER 2013 RESULTS
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
31 October, 2013
13
Groundbirch and Gundy, Canada, Upstream Americas, 2013
14. DELIVERING INNOVATIVE &
COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE
THIRD QUARTER 2013 RESULTS
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
31 OCTOBER 2013
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
31 October, 2013
14
Lubricants Zhuhai blending and filling plant, China, 2009