Peter Voser - Credit Suisse 2013 Energy Summit in Vail, Colorado, February 5, 2013
1. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
COMPANY UPDATE
DELIVERING COMPETITIVE &
INNOVATIVE PERFORMANCE
CREDIT SUISSE 2013 ENERGY SUMMIT
VAIL, FEBRUARY 5 2013
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 1
2. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
COMPANY UPDATE
PETER VOSER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 2
3. DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves.
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are
consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing
impact.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this announcement "Shell", "Shell Group" and "Royal
Dutch Shell" are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we", "us"
and "our" are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by
identifying the particular company or companies. "Subsidiaries", "Shell subsidiaries" and "Shell companies" as used in this announcement refer to companies in which
Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which
Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as "associated companies" or "associates" and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to
as "jointly controlled entities". In this announcement, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as "equity-accounted investments". The term "Shell
interest" is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 23 per cent shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership
interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This announcement contains forward looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell and the Shell Group. All
statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future
expectations that are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual
results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things,
statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell and the Shell Group to market risks and statements expressing management‟s expectations, beliefs, estimates,
forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as "anticipate", "believe", "could",
"estimate", "expect", "goals", "intend", "may", "objectives", "outlook", "plan", "probably", "project", "risks", "seek", "should", "target", "will" and similar terms and
phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and the Shell Group and could cause those results to differ materially from those
expressed in the forward looking statements included in this announcement, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b)
changes in demand for Shell's products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry
competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful
negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative,
fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and
regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the
approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward looking statements contained in this
announcement are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on
forward looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell's 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2011 (available at
www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward looking statement speaks only as of the date of this
announcement, 5 February 2013. Neither Shell nor any of its subsidiaries nor the Shell Group undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward
looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or
inferred from the forward looking statements contained in this announcement.
Shell may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this announcement that the SEC strictly prohibits Shell from including in its filings with the SEC. U.S. investors
are urged to consider closely the disclosure in Shell's Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from
the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
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4. RECONFIRMING OUR GROWTH AGENDA
ON TRACK FOR 2012-15 TARGETS
Maintaining our long term focus; managing short-term headwinds
2012 reported CCS earnings $27 billion, total CFFO $46 billion; delivering growth
Expected Q1 2013 dividend increase 4.7%, $0.45 per share, reflecting growth momentum
GROWTH DELIVERY
12 billion boe resources on stream + 20 billion boe in development funnel
Exploration & deals add ~4 billion boe resources potential 2012
Growth priority: integrated gas, deep-water, resources plays
CAPITAL DISCIPLINE + TRACK RECORD
2010-12 start-ups reach >10% of 2012 CFFO & ~20% of 2012 production; more to come
Robust 2013-17 project flow
Strong build in optionality - capital constraints driving hard portfolio choices
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5. FOCUS ON SAFETY AND ASSET INTEGRITY
2012 UPDATE
„GOAL ZERO‟ ON SAFETY SPILLS - OPERATIONAL
injuries – TRCF/million working hours million working hours Volume in thousand tonnes
5 900 10
4 800 8
3 700 6
2 600 4
1 500 2
0 400 0
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Working hours
TRCF
ENERGY INTENSITY - REFINERIES
Energy Intensity Index (EEITM)
104
102
100
98
96 HSSE PRIORITY
94 PERFORMANCE + TRANSPARENCY
92
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
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6. STRATEGY AND CAPITAL ALLOCATION
TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT
$ billion
UPSTREAM 40
Growth strategy; price upside
Priority: deep-water, integrated gas, resources plays
30
DOWNSTREAM
Optimize re-shaped portfolio
Selective growth 20
CLIMATE CHANGE
Grow gas and biofuels 10
CCS and energy efficiency
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK 0
Investing for growth and competitive payout
Through-cycle returns and risk management
-10
2012 2013 2012 2013
Upstream Europe Asia Pacific
SUSTAINED INVESTMENT: Downstream + Corporate Africa, Americas
Middle East,
~80% UPSTREAM Acquisitions
CIS
DS + Corp.
Divestments
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7. RECONFIRMING OUR OUTLOOK
2012 OUTLOOK
Cash flow from operations $46 billion 2012-15: $175-200 billion
($43 billion ex W/C)
Net capex $30 billion 2012-15: $120-130 billion
Dividends distributed $10.8 billion 2013 >$11 billion
Oil and gas production outcome 3.3 million boe/d 2017/18: ~4.0 million boe/d
Gearing 9% 0-30%
NO CHANGE TO SHELL’S AMBITIOUS TARGETS
DIVIDEND INCREASE REFLECTS DELIVERY
EXPECTED STRONG PROJECT PIPELINE AND OPTIONS
CAPITAL CEILING DRIVES HARD CHOICES
CFFO & capex outlook @$80-$100/bbl Brent and assumes improved US gas and Downstream environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements
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8. IMPROVING OUR PERFORMANCE
EARNINGS TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN
$ billion CCS
+45% 80%
30
60%
40%
10
20%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2010-2012
-10 -20%
Shell Other majors
-40%
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS VOLUMES
$ billion million boe per day million tonnes per annum
+ ~70%
3.5 20
40
20 3 17
0 2.5 14
2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
Upstream Corporate Oil + Gas production volumes LNG sales volumes
Downstream Divestments/other 2010-2012 asset sales
TSR is averaged across year-end. Source: Datastream
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9. 2010-12 TRACK RECORD
START-UPS 2010-12 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: ~20 START-UPS 2010-12
2010 $ billion million boe per day
USA: Perdido 10
Singapore: Chemicals
0.6
North America: tight gas
Nigeria: Gbaran Ubie Ph1 0.4
5
Norway: Gjoa
Canada: AOSP-1 Raízen Qatar + AOSP-1 0.2
CFFO impact
2011 0 0.0
Iraq:West Qurna
Netherlands: Schoonebeek
Brasil: Raízen 2012
Qatar: Pearl GTL ramp-up -5
NA: tight gas
Oman: Harweel
Qatar: Qatargas 4 LNG
USA: Caesar Tonga Ph 1
Qatar: Pearl GTL Malaysia: Gumusut-Kakap Cash flow Production (RHS)
Oman: Qarn Alam (early production) -10 Organic capex
Australia Pluto LNG T1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NA: tight gas/shales
Eagle Ford
2012 IMPACT FROM 10-12 PROJECTS
>10% OF GROUP CFFO
Qatar: Pearl GTL Malaysia: Gumusut-Kakap ~20% OF PRODUCTION
FURTHER GROWTH POTENTIAL
CFFO and capex outlook at $100 Brent
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10. CASH FLOW AND PAYOUT
CASH GENERATION DIVIDEND TRACK RECORD
$ billion $ billion $ billion $ billion
2010-12 2012 65
140 60
10
120
DOWN
100 STREAM 8
40 DOWN
80 STREAM 6 55
60
20 4
40 UP UP
STREAM STREAM
20 2
0 0 0 45
Sources Uses Sources Uses 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 13Q1
Cash flow from operations Dividend and buyback rolling
Dividends declared
Asset sales Capex + equity acc. investments FTSE 100 total dividends
Acquisitions paid (RHS)
STRONG BALANCE SHEET
$ billion
30%
30 Gearing STRONG BALANCE SHEET
range
20%
20 GENERATING SURPLUS CASH
10 10% SUSTAINED DIVIDEND
PERFORMANCE
0 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Net Debt Gearing (RHS)
CFFO excluding working capital movements
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11. WORKING OUR PORTFOLIO FOR GROWTH & CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
DIVESTMENTS 2010-2012 ACQUISITIONS 2010-2012
$21 $17
Onshore assets, Nigeria Permian, USA
billion billion
Upstream Upstream
Downstream Holstein, Gulf of Mexico Downstream Beryl, UK
REFOCUSED DOWNSTREAM: GROWTH OIL + GAS:
Europe; Africa; Latin-America Resources plays
Increased stakes in Shell fields
LATE LIFE/NON-STRATEGIC UPSTREAM: New exploration acreage
Upstream ~130 kboe/d
Strategic partnering SELECTIVE GROWTH DOWNSTREAM:
Brazil biofuels, retail, Gasnor gas to transport
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12. HYDROCARBON MATURATION + RETURNS
CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION… …AND RETURNS
billion boe $ billion %
Longer-term upside 250 40
35 Abadi FLNG Phase 1
Tukau Timur
Zaedyus
Gbaran Ubie Ph2
Zabazaba 200
Rab Harweel
Erha North ph3 30
25 Tempa Rossa ML South
Fram BC-10 ph3
Malikai Eagle Ford 150
Forcados Yokri Permian
Southern Swamp 20
AOSP debottl.
15 NA tight gas/shales 100
Majnoon FCP
Petai
Pluto (Woodside) Amal Steam
Harweel Kashagan Ph1 10
NA tight gas/shales BC10 Ph2 50
Eagle Ford NWS North Rankin 2
5
Caesar Tonga AOSP debottlenecking
Gumusut-Kakap
(early oil) 0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 E
-5 Capital in service
Capital other
On-stream Study
Return on capital in service (RHS)
Under Construction Production
Return on capital employed (RHS)
SUSTAINED PROJECT FLOW
12 BILLION BOE ON STREAM
20 BILLION BOE IN ~60 PROJECTS IN FUNNEL
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13. INVESTMENT PRIORITIES
ORGANIC CAPEX 2013
$ billion
Reserves-rich plays with long-term drivers
FUTURE LONGER TERM Iraq, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Heavy Oil & Arctic
30
OPPORTUNITIES Slower pace + capital allocation
RESOURCES
PLAYS
Integrated infrastructure + global capabilities
GROWTH Standardized developments + technology
20 DEEP-WATER PRIORITY
Leveraging Shell‟s scale + market growth
INTEGRATED
GAS
10 Extending cash flows through technology
UPSTREAM Focused exploration + licence renewals
ENGINES
Long-term engine; taking steps to enhance profitability
DOWNSTREAM Selective growth in chemicals, biofuels, growth markets
0
INVESTMENT CHOICES DRIVEN ON A GLOBAL THEMATIC BASIS
MORE EFFICIENT DEPLOYMENT OF CAPITAL, PEOPLE, TECHNOLOGY
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14. DOWNSTREAM ENGINE
Long-term engine
Gasnor
acquisition Lubes Russia Cost + portfolio steps to
Rhineland Connect
enhance profitability
LNG to
US gas-to-
transport
chemicals China Retail + Lubes
Qatar chemicals
China refining Selective growth in chemicals,
SADAF expansion
and chemicals biofuels, growth markets
Singapore Chemicals
Cracker debottleneck
Key country
Under development Clyde refinery
conversion to
Options
terminal
2012+ deals
2006 2010 2011 2013 FUTURE
Qatar chemicals
Gas-to-chemicals US
China
Nanhai chemicals Singapore chemicals Raízen Port Arthur
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15. UPSTREAM GROWTH PORTFOLIO UNDER CONSTRUCTION
AOSP Kashagan Forcados
debottlenecking Phase1 Yokri
Bonga
FUTURE North
OPPORTUNITIES West
Majnoon Southern
Swamp AG
FCP
North
American
North American tight gas
tight gas
RESOURCES Eagle North American
liquids rich shales
PLAYS Ford
BC-10 Gumusut Malikai
Caesar Tonga Ph 1
phase 2 - Kakap Sabah Gas
Petai
Cardamom Kebabangan (KBB)
DEEP-WATER Mars B, W.Boreas, S. Deimos
Gorgon LNG T1-3 Prelude
Pluto North
(Woodside) Rankin 2
INTEGRATED
NWS Gas – GWF – Phase A Wheatstone
GAS
Amal Clair Ph2 Corrib ~30 PROJECTS
Steam
Harweel Fram 7 BILLION BOE
UPSTREAM Bab THG &HB-2
Tempa
RESOURCES
ENGINE Schiehallion
SAS Redevelopment Rossa 0.9 MBOE/D
Start-up/ 2012 start-ups 2013-2014 2015-2016 2017+
Peak Production 0.2 mboe/d 0.5 mboe/d 0.3 mboe/d 0.1 mboe/d
Shell operated 2012 FID
Production @ $80 Brent scenario
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16. INDUSTRY-LEADING INTEGRATED GAS PORTFOLIO
Leveraging Shell‟s scale + market
North America: developing growth
new gas value chain options
Green Corridor GTT
Pearl GTL Technology and project delivery
Ramp up 2012
capabilities
Hazira
Potential doubling of capacity
On Under
stream construction
Liquefaction 2012: ~0.8* mboe/d; 20 mtpa
Regas LNG
Gas-to-transport Australia: major growth
GTL projects under construction
2012 progress
CAPEX RESOURCES SHELL GLOBAL LNG GROWTH
$ billion 8.2 billion boe million tonnes per annum
6
40
4
20
2
0 0
2007 2012 ~2020+
2012 2013
On stream Under construction Study On stream Under construction Options
* includes feedgas from non-integrated ventures
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17. NORTH AMERICA & AUSTRALIA
INTEGRATED GAS CLOSE-UP
NORTH AMERICA AUSTRALIA/INDONESIA
Sunrise FLNG
Abadi FLNG
Browse BCT Prelude FLNG
LNG Canada
LNG
Green Corridor GTT
Pluto LNG
1(Woodside) North West Shelf
North Rankin 2
Great Lakes GTT NWS GWF Ph1
Pennsylvania Gorgon LNG
Gas-to-Chemicals Wheatstone LNG Arrow
Gorgon T4
On stream Gulf Coast GTT
Under construction Elba LNG
GTL Gulf Coast
Options
LNG Options
0.3 mtpa gas to transport under construction 7 mtpa under construction
LNG options, GTL, Gas-to-Chemicals under study New LNG + FLNG options under study
for 2014+ FID Increased Browse equity; Prelude dilution
Green Corridor GTT
LNG Canada Great Lakes GTT NWS GWF
US Gas-to-Chemicals Gulf Coast GTT Wheatstone LNG
Elba LNG Arrow LNG Gorgon LNG T1-3
US GTL Sunrise LNG Abadi LNG Prelude FLNG Northwest Shelf
Gulf Coast LNG Options Gorgon LNG T4 Browse LNG North Rankin 2 Pluto (Woodside)
Start
Assess Select Define FID Execute up Operate
Feasibility Concept Project Ramp-up to
Selection Specifications Construction full capacity
Study
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18. GLOBAL DEEP-WATER
LEADING IOC DEEP-WATER PORTFOLIO
Established production
leadership
Standardized developments +
production technology
Mars-B
Cardamom Malaysia /
Gulf of Mexico Brunei
Nigeria Frontier exploration potential
On stream Bonga North West
Under construction Brazil Gumusut-Kakap
New exploration BC-10 ph2 Malikai 2012: 0.3 mboe/d
Sabah Gas Kebabangan KBB
Petai
CAPEX RESOURCES
$ billion 3.3 billion boe
8
6
4
2
0
2012 2013 On stream Under construction Study Perdido Spar
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19. BUILDING UP GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN RESOURCES PLAYS
TIGHT/SHALE OIL AND GAS
BUILDING NEW TIGHT/SHALE ACREAGE
„000 km2 cumulative cumulative spend
gross acreage $ billion
60 20
Entry cost 15
Tight gas Germany 40
Liquids rich shale Ukraine Acreage 10
Changbei
Turkey
20
Sichuan 5
Egypt Oman
0 0
Gas Liquids Rich Colombia
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
On stream
E&A Sao Francisco Arrow RESOURCES ADDED
billion boe
Positive initial Karoo
exploration
Neuquen
3 Marcellus
Eagle Ford
LRS
Permian
2012 Portfolio Build Arrow
2
CAPEX RESOURCES
$ bln 1
10.6 billion boe
10
0
8
2010 2011 2012
6 Liquids Gas Resources-Based Deals
4
2 2010-2012 DELIVERY:
0
~7 BILLION BOE
2012* 2013
LRS Dry gas
On stream Under construction Study ~$3/BOE (E&A+DEALS)
Future potential (prospective resources)
*2012 includes $3.5 billion acreage deals
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20. NORTH AMERICA RESOURCES PLAYS PROGRESS
TIGHT/SHALE OIL AND GAS
~30,000 km2 portfolio, 60%
liquids-rich
Canol
Eagle Ford LRS development
underway
Montney Groundbirch
Deep Basin
Foothills
Duvernay
Drilling focus shifted to LRS
Exshaw from dry gas
Pinedale
~10,000 km2 new acreage 2012
Niobrara Utica Marcellus
Gas
Permian acquisition $1.9
Monterey Mississippi Lime billion
Liquids Rich Shales
Permian Haynesville Additions to existing positions
Eagle Ford Positive initial exploration / appraisal
Onstream
Integrated gas options
CAPEX PRODUCTION
$ billion mboe/day bcfe/day
10 0.4
8 2
6
0.2
4 1
2
0 0.0 0
-2 2010 2011 2012 2013E Piloncillo, Eagle Ford
2010 2011 2012 2013E
LRS Dry gas Liquids Gas
Divestments Acquisitions
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21. TURNING NEW INVESTMENT INTO CASH FLOW
2013 CAPEX & OUTCOME IMPACT OF KEY UPSTREAM START-UPS
$ billion $ billion
20
Exploration &
30 Appraisal
15
2017+ 10
2013+
Key Projects Start-up
CFFO
2015-16 5
20
2010-12
0
2013-14 2010-12
-5
10
2013+
-10
Upstream Base,
Downstream +
Corporate -15 ORGANIC
CAPEX
0 -20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Longer
2012-15 CFFO
Term
SPENDING PROGRAMME +
~50% of capex on stream by NEAR-TERM CASH FLOW
2015
CFFO outlook @$100 Brent and assumes improved US gas environment from 2012; CFFO
excludes working capital movements
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22. PRIORITY ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
ON TRACK FOR AMBITIOUS CFFO GROWTH + INVESTMENT PLAN
($100 scenario)
$ billion
$100/bbl
50
macro
Portfolio/
Free
Growth outlook:
Choice1
$112/bbl cashflow New projects
40
$91/bbl Enhanced unit cash flow
Macro uplift
30
2012 trend
20 Investment for sustained
growth 2012-15:
10 ~$120-130 billion net spend
>$16 billion asset sales
0
2009 – 2012 2012 2012 – 2015
average average potential 2
Cash flow from operations/ex working capital Dividends + buybacks
Net Capital Investment Macro sensitivity3
1 Portfolio/Choice negative impact on 2012 cash flow target: reduced NA gas drilling, divestments, project slippage
2 CFFO & capex outlook at $100, assumes improved US gas, WTI and Downstream environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements
3 Potentialimpact in $100 scenario from continuation of 2012 Downstream environment, Henry Hub, WCS and WTI discounts
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23. PRODUCTION & POTENTIAL
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION + OUTCOMES UPSTREAM CAPEX + CFFO SCENARIO
million boe/day
4
Longer
Term
2
Growth
Priority
0
2011 2012 17-18 avg
Production + potential 2012+ asset sales
Upstream
Engine
2012 PERFORMANCE $ billion
million boe/day 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
2012 2012
Capex: CFFO:
2013 2015 potential
3.4
PRODUCTION IS AN OUTCOME OF
3.2
INVESTMENT DECISIONS
Controllable
CASHFLOW GROWTH >
3.0 PRODUCTION GROWTH
MULTIPLE PATHWAYS TO DELIVERY
OF TARGETS
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24. MAINTAINING OUR FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK
CASH PERFORMANCE
$175-$200 billion CFFO 2012-15
Grow free cash flow
CFFO drives investment + payout
PAY-OUT INVESTMENT
Dividend linked to business results $120-$130 billion net capex 2012-15
Scrip dividend with buy back offset ~$33 billion net capex 2013
Expected dividend growth 2013 Affordability, profitability, portfolio
BALANCE SHEET
0 – 30% gearing through cycle
Balance sheet underpins investment
Capital employed grows steadily
CFFO & capex outlook @$80-$100/BBL Brent and assumes improved US gas and Downstream environment from 2012
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25. SHELL
FUTURE LONGER TERM
OPPORTUNITIES
RESOURCES
PLAYS
GROWTH ON TRACK FOR 2012-15 TARGETS
DEEP-WATER PRIORITY
GROWTH DELIVERY
INTEGRATED
GAS
CAPITAL DISCIPLINE + TRACK RECORD
UPSTREAM
ENGINES
DOWNSTREAM
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26. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
Q&A
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