This document discusses randomization in clinical trials. It begins with an overview of the benefits of randomization and different methods for generating allocation sequences, such as simple randomization and restricted randomization. The history of randomization in clinical research is reviewed, from its origins in agricultural studies to its first use in a randomized controlled trial comparing streptomycin to bed rest for tuberculosis. Key definitions of randomization and randomized controlled trials are provided. The document also compares randomization to random sampling and explains why randomization is used to eliminate systematic differences between groups. Criteria for randomization methods and techniques for allocation concealment are outlined.
2. OVERVIEW
Benefits of randomization
Methods of generation of allocation sequence
Advantages and disadvantages
Allocation concealment
3. HISTORY OF RANDOMIZATION
RA Fischer – ‘Design of Experiments’ in 1935
- Agricultural research
- True treatment effect separated from other effects
Sir Austin Bradford Hill
- First RCT of streptomycin in
pulmonary Tb – 1946
- Bed rest only: 4/52 cured
- Bed rest + streptomycin: 28/55 cured
4. DEFINITION OF RCT
A clinical-epidemiological experiment in which subjects are
randomly allocated into groups, usually called test and control
groups, to receive or not to receive a preventive or a therapeutic
procedure or intervention ”
John M.Last, 2001
5. DEFINITION OF RANDOMIZATION
Statistical procedure by which participants are allocated into groups
called study and control to receive or not receive an experimental
preventive/therapeutic procedure, manoeuvre, intervention.
Heart of RCT ; only unique feature
Allows equal chance for participants to get assigned to either group
Group assignment can’t be predicted
6. RANDOMIZATION VS RANDOM SAMPLING
Random sampling –random selection of study sample from
population
External validity and Generalisability
Randomization
Internal Validity
7. WHY RANDOMIZE?
Difference in outcome between two groups can be explained as
1. Intervention exhibits a real effect
2. Outcome difference is solely due to chance
3. There is a systematic difference( or bias) b/w groups due to
factors other than intervention
o Randomization aims to obviate the third possibility.
8. GOAL OF RANDOMIZATION
To eliminate possibility – investigator knows about next patient
allocation
If known – bias in treatment assignment
Selection bias
9. BENEFITS OF RANDOMIZATION
1. Prevent Selection Bias – selective enrolment of patients to trial
based on next treatment allocation
2. Ensuring comparability of groups
10. CONTD..
Both measurable and immeasurable/unrecognised variables
Randomization doesn’t guarantee comparability – role of chance
Large group – tend to be similar
Matching – only factors known to be important
3. Randomization guarantees that statistical tests of significance will
be valid .
12. UNIT OF ANALYSIS IN RANDOMIZATION
Individual people
Groups
CLUSTER RANDOMIZATION
Eg – training of health professional
Disadvantage – large sample size, ethical problems
Order in which measurements are obtained from each participant
Eg – evaluating effect of morphine in cancer patients - randomize the order
in which analgesia, adverse events, quality of life are assessed
13. RANDOMIZATION IN RCT
Depends on
1. Generation of unpredictable randomized allocation sequence
2. Concealment of that sequence until assignment occurs
( Allocation Concealment)
14. WHAT IS NOT RANDOMIZATION
Alternate assignment
Quasirandom methods –
DOB, Case record number, Date of presentation
Systematic occurrences – no allocation concealment – selection bias
16. SIMPLE RANDOMIZATION
Analogous to repeated fair coin-tossing
Preserves complete unpredictability
Coin tossing, dice throwing, previously shuffled card, Table of
random numbers, Computer generated random numbers, STATA
17. Adv – easy to implement
Diasadv - In small samples highly disparate sample sizes in the
groups by chance alone
Imbalance negligible with trial sizes greater than 200
19. RESTRICTED RANDOMIZATION
Balanced randomization
Groups of equal size
Methods
Blocking
Random Allocation Rule
Replacement Randomization
20. BLOCK RANDOMIZATION
Random permuted blocks
Same size comparison groups throughout trial
Steps
1. Select block size
21. 2.List all possible permutations of treatment in a block
3.Random selection of blocks
22. Method 2:
Allocation ratio can be uneven
Can be extended to more than one group
23. Advantage - Balanced study arms even with small sample size
- Useful during interim analysis
Disadvantage
Last participants’ group in each block predictable if block size is known
Unequal distribution of relevant covariates
Longer block sixes (10/20) and random variation of bock size – preserve
unpredictability
24. RANDOM ALLOCATION RULE
Simplest form
Total sample size identified subset of sample to one group
remainder other group
Represent one large permuted block
Random assignment without replacement
25. Restricted shuffle approach –cards prepared for each treatment as
per allocation ratio, kept in envelope and shuffled
Unpredictability : >permuted block ; < simple random
Disadvantage
Equal size only at end of trial
Chance confounding – trivial with larger sample size
26. REPLACEMENT RANDOMIZATION
Earliest from of restricted randomization
Simple randomisation
Allowable disparity fixed
Repeats simple randomisation scheme till desired balance achieved
Advantage – easy, ensure reasonable balance , yields
unpredictability
Disadvantage – do not ensure balance for interim analysis
27. STRATIFIED RANDOMIZATION
To control influence of covariates
Avoid imbalance on important prognostic factors
Generate separate block for
each combination of covariate
Subjects assigned to respective
blocks
Restricted randomisation in
each subset
28. CONTD...
Stratification without restriction accomplishes nothing
Useful in multicentric trials- stratification by centre
Little use in large trials
Useful in small trials
Gain from stratification minimal once number of participants/ group > 50
Disadvantage – Requires baseline characteristics of all, All participants to
be identified before group assignment,
29. ADAPTIVE / DYNAMIC RANDOMIZATION
New participant is assigned to a particular treatment group by
taking into account the specific covariates and previous assignments
of participants.
Here the participant has no equal chance , but a definite chance to
be in either of the groups
30. URN RANDOMIZATION
Adaptive biased – coin design
Alter probability based on magnitude of imbalance
Start with two coloured balls in an urn
One ball drawn at random and replaced
Extra ball of opposite colour to the one selected added
Process repeated
31.
32. COVARIATE ADAPTIVE RANDOMIZATION
First described by Taves
Only 1st assignment random
Remaining depends on specific covariate and previous assignment group
Uses biased coin element at every allocation
To make small groups closely similar
Reduce covariate imbalance
Disadvantage – decision to be made case by case
33. MINIMIZATION
Described independently by Taves (1974) and Pocock and Simon
(1975).
Eg - 3 prognostic factors – Old age, Diabetes, Co - drug
1 1 1
Treatment
A
Treatment
B
No of
patients
20 20
Total Points 15 13
Patient no 41
•40 years
•Non-Diabetic
•Co-drug
Treatment
A
Treatment
B
No of
patients
20 21
Total Points 15 14
34. Advantages
Offers better balancing than standard randomization methods.
Can incorporate a larger number of stratifying factors than stratified
randomization methods.
Disadvantages
More complex than using other standard randomization methods.
Randomization lists cannot be generated in advance.
35. RESPONSE ADAPTIVE RANDOMIZATION
Randomize patients based on response of previous subjects
Controversial and not commonly used
Play-the-winner (PW) design
When patient response determined quickly
First subject treatment assigned by tossing a coin
If response success, second patient receives same treatment, if
failure, other treatment
36. CONTD..
Advantage - more receive better treatment
Disadvantage - Investigator aware of next assignment
- Loss of statistical power if final sample size quite unequal
37. CONTD...
Two – armed bandit
Treatment assignment probabilities depend on observed success
probabilities at each time point
Advantage – maximum number in superior treatment
Disadvantage – unequal groups – loss of statistical power
38. UNEQUAL RANDOMIZATION
When equal allocation to treatment and control group
economically/ clinically/ practically feasible
2:1 ratio- power 0.95 to 0.925
4:1 ratio- power 0.95 to 0.82
Ratio> 3:1 not useful; large sample size
39. FLOWCHART FOR SELECTING PROPER RANDOMIZATION TECHNIQUE
SAMPLE SIZE
Are there covariates that need to
be controlled?
Are participants enrolled to study
continually or all at same time
COVARIATE ADAPTIVE
RANDOMIZATION
BLOCK RANDOMIZATION
SIMPLE RANDOMIZATION
STRATIFIED RAMDOMIZATION
Small,
≤200
Large,
>200
NoYes
Same
time
continues
40. ALLOCATION CONCEALMENT
Concealment of generated allocation sequence atleast until patients
have been assigned to their groups
Shields those who admit participants to trial from
knowing upcoming assignment – eliminate BIAS
Unpredictable allocation sequence generation
ineffective without allocation concealment
Countless attempts made by researcher to
decipher the allocation concealment scheme
41. METHODS FOR ALLOCATION CONCEALMENT
Sequentially numbered opaque sealed envelope (SNOSE)
Envelope numbered in advance, opened sequentially, and only after the
participant’s name and other details are written on the envelope
Use of carbon paper inside envelope
Cardboard/aluminium foil inside envelope
Sequentially numbered containers
All containers tamper-proof, equal in weight & similar in appearance with
audit trail established.
43. BLINDING
Bias from errors of assessment of outcome. From 3 sources
Participants
Observer bias
Bias in evaluation
o For proper assessment of outcome BLINDING
44. BLINDING VS ALLOCATION CONCEALMENT
Allocation concealment Blinding
Prevent selection bias Prevent ascertainment bias
Can always be implemented Can’t be implemented always
Protect randomization sequence
before and until the interventions
are given to study participants
Protect after allocation
45. CONCLUSION
Randomization is the only unique feature of RCT
Only way to avoid selection and confounding biases
Generation of randomization sequence takes little time and
contribute much to scientific accuracy and credibility
Simple, Restricted, Stratified and Adaptive randomization
techniques are the commonly used methods
Proper randomization hinges on adequate allocation concealment
46. REFERENCES
Park K. Park’s textbook of preventive and social medicine. 24th ed. Jabalpur
M/s Banarasidas Bhanot Publishers 2016; p.75-87
Schulz KF, Grimes DA. Generation of allocation sequences in randomised
trials: chance, not choice. The Lancet. 2002 Feb 9 ; 359: 515–19
Leon Gordis. Epidemiology. 5th ed. Elsevier Saunders 2014; p.179-242
Schulz KF, Grimes DA. Allocation concealment in randomised trials: defending
against deciphering. The Lancet. 2002 Feb 16 ; 359: 614–18
Schulz KF, Grimes DA. Blinding in randomised trials: hiding who got what. The
Lancet. 2002 Feb 23; 359: 696–700
47. Arun Bhatt. Evolution of Clinical Research: A History Before and Beyond
James Lind . Perspect Clin Res. 2010 Jan-Mar; 1(1): 6–10
Armitage P. Fisher, Bradford Hill, and randomization. International Journal
of Epidemiology 2003;32:925–928
Baghbaninaghadehi F, Armijo-Olivo S, Woodhouse L. Fundamentals of
randomization in clinical trial. International Journal of Advanced
Nutritional Health Science. 2016 Feb 22;4:174-87.
Jadad AR, Enkin MW. Randomized controlled trials: questions, answers and
musings. John Wiley & Sons; 2008 Apr 15.
Unpredict - Each participant has the same chance of receiving any of the interventions. • Allocation is carried out using a chance mechanism so that neither the participant nor the investigator will know in advance which will be assigned
Balance - Treatment groups are of a similar size & constitution, groups are alike in all important aspects and only differ in the intervention each group receives
Simplic - Easy for investigator/staff to implement
n other cases, investigators may decide to randomise not only individuals or groups of individuals, but also the order in which the measurements are obtained from each participant. For instance, in an RCT evaluating the effects of morphine on cancer pain, the investigators could randomise the order in which analgesia, adverse effects, and quality of life are assessed.
Unbiased and
.( eg.male , female distribution in 2 groups will not be comparable. Imbalance in covariates reduces the power of the study.) block size – multiple of treatment group
Blocking gives balance but rarely comparable groups – affectresults – induce bias – reduce power
Too many covariates create imbalance
The imbalance begins when the number of blocks approaches half the sample size…diadv--. Analysis is difficult
Efron - American statistician....Usual coin – 0.5/0.5 prob...Unpredictability similar to simple randomization
Suppoetrs and detractors, baseline adaptive, temprary asiignment to both groups – assign to group with minimum perason chi square goodness of fit statistics – conventional method
It called minimization because imbalance in the distribution of covariates are minimized. .....good method to limit imbalance in relatively small randomized clinical trials with more important prognostic factors (covariates).
Better balance - Treatment arms are balanced with respect to predefined patient factors as well as for the number of patients in each group.
Allocating patients to treatment via minimization is more complex
Randomization lists cannot be generated in advance when minimization is used. Each time a patient enters a trial, a computer must run the minimization algorithm to assign the patient to the appropriate treatment
PW- if investgtr feel stronlgy new Rx is better; outcome adaptive
A proper sequence of procedures using opaque concealed envelopes is shown in Figure