This document discusses how to design for an unpredictable future. It notes that the future is uncertain but some trends are clear, such as growing inequality, the rise of the sharing economy, and that we will need to adapt to new digital technologies. It advocates using futures thinking techniques like scenarios and emerging trends analysis to explore possible futures and improve decision making. The document provides an example of how creating future scenarios inspired new technology concepts to help people live more sustainably by 2025. It closes by thanking the audience.

1. HOW DO YOU
DESIGN FOR AN
UNPREDICTABLE
FUTURE?
Rodrigo Bautista - @Rodgox
Senior Sustainability Advisor Innovation | London Design Jam | November 2013

2. Forum for the Future is a sustainability non-profit that works
globally with business, government and others to solve sustainability
challenges.
UK
USA
INDIA
SINGAPORE

5. A chair?
Really?

6. A collection of
designs from KR
Really?

7. That finish here,
anyway

8. "Our failure to address environmental
issues is not a failure of information but
a failure of imagination."
Professor John Robinson

9. SOME THINGS ARE PRETTY CERTAIN…
the future

10. 1.We’ll feel
the pinch
• Slow wage growth
• Lower spending on leisure
• 68% people say cost is main
barrier to sustainable living.

11. 2. Aspiring
markets
will exist
• ’Aspirationals’ look for brands to provide solutions to improve their lives and
serve society and are the largest customer segment in India and China
• They trust consumer reviews and the advice of friends and family when deciding
what to buy…
• They’re very active on social media, and are the most likely group to believe we
need to “consume a lot less to improve the environment for future generations”
(73%)

13. 3. We’ll need
to ride the
digital wave
• In November 2011 the United
Nations declared broadband to be a
human right.
• Over 70% of the world’s population
has a mobile phone

14. 4. Inequality
will get
worse
•
Over a quarter (26%) say they have skipped
meals in the past year.
•
One in five parents in poverty says they
cannot afford to replace their children's wornout shoes, while 80% of parents in poverty
say they have had to borrow money to pay for
food and clothes over the past 12 months.

16. 5. The shared
economy will
rise
‘The currency of the new
economy is trust.’
Rachel Botsman

17. BUT SOME THINGS COULD
GO EITHER WAY…

18. "I think there is a world market for maybe five
computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM,
1943.
"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" -- H. M.
Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
"It will be years -- not in my time -- before a
woman will become Prime Minister." -- Margaret
Thatcher, 1974

19. FUTURES
How do we help others to design for an unpredictable
future?

21. long-term trends
visions
emerging trends
scenarios
futures is…
a structured exploration of the future to
improve decision making today

22. why use futures?
1
….new perspectives
2
3
….better ideas
….joining up & building consensus
4
….creativity & innovation

23. “What’s the role of technology
in helping people lead more
sustainable lives in 2025?”

24. We created future scenarios to provide inspiration….

25. …. for generating
technology
concepts for 2025
+
+

26. ….these were our
top ideas, you can
see short
summary film of
them here

27. "Our failure to address environmental
issues is not a failure of information but
a failure of imagination."
Professor John Robinson

28. THANKS
Rodrigo Bautista –
@Rodgox
Senior Sustainability Advisor
Innovation | University of Brighton |
November 2013