Premium Bangalore Call Girls Jigani Dail 6378878445 Escort Service For Hot Ma...
Gerenciando a água sob Incerteza e Riscos
1. Planning for an uncertain future, p 2
Natural Sciences
A World of
Quarterly Newsletter
Vol. 10, No. 2
April–June 2012
IN THIS ISSUE EDITORIAL
IN FOCUS
2 Planning for an uncertain future Water too has a tipping point
NEWS In 2009, Rockström et al. proposed the concept of ‘planetary boundaries’, beyond which
lay the point of no return, or tipping point. They estimate that humanity has already
transgressed three out of nine boundaries, those for climate change (greenhouse gas levels), the
10 Venice will succumb to sea-level rate of biodiversity loss and the global nitrogen cycle. Humanity may even have transgressed a
rise, the question is when fourth boundary, they suspect, the limit for freshwater use, or may be close to doing so. Current
11 Mexican wins Kalinga Prize consumption is estimated at 2 600 km3 per year – and rising.
12 Laureates find new ways of looking This study is cited in the Fourth World Water Development Report, Managing Water under
at old problems Uncertainty and Risk, launched by UNESCO on 12 March on behalf of the 28 agencies
comprising UN-Water. Rockström et al. suggest that the social cost of transgressing the
13 ICTP takes seismology course to
planetary boundaries will depend upon how resilient and green our societies are. Going green
epicentre of Haitian tragedy will not alone ensure more water-friendly policies, however, as exemplified by the controversies
13 A graduate diploma in nanoscience over biofuels and large-scale foreign acquisitions of arable land. Above all, the report observes,
for Arab universities we need to acknowledge the cross-cutting nature of water across the entire development spec-
14 Mission accomplished for Lady trum. Food and energy production, industry, human and environmental health are all dependent
on water, all essential for socio-economic development and all increasingly interdependent.
Amber
Forgetting that water flows over sectoral boundaries can be a costly mistake. The
Mississippi Delta in the USA has been radically modified to supply agriculture and hydro-
INTERVIEW power. By reducing risks to agriculture upstream, the scheme has amplified risks down-
stream, exacerbating the impact of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans in 2005. Where is the
15 Madiodio Niasse on the risks link? The dam constructed on the river interrupts sediment transfer. Without the constant
associated with large-scale foreign deposition of sediment, tidal and wave action is gradually eroding the delta on which New
land acquisitions Orleans is built, causing the city to sink and thus to flood more easily. The pumping of
groundwater, oil and natural gas in the delta has caused further subsidence.
This example illustrates a wider problem. The lack of interaction between sectors, as well
as between users, decision-makers and managers, has allowed water resources to become
HORIZONS
seriously degraded around the world, threatening all the sectors that depend on water and
17 Sandwatchers find a market thus compromising development. With climate change likely to make water resources less
abundant in future, even as demand for water grows, humanity finds itself on an unsustain-
for a weed
able development path.
20 Striving for a better tomorrow At a time when humanity is facing an uncertain and perilous future, Managing Water under
in Mujib Uncertainty and Risk drives home the point that a ‘business-as-usual’ approach to water
management is not an option. We must adapt our development planning and management to
reflect the bigger picture. And we don’t have much time. Herein lies the key message of the
report, extracts from which you will find overleaf. The Earth Summit in Rio in June should
IN BRIEF
offer an ideal occasion to drive this message home.
24 Agenda
Gretchen Kalonji
24 New Releases Assistant Director-General for Natural Sciences
7. Top 10 groundwater-abstracting countries, 2010
Groundwater depletion is so intensive in some A villager in Shanxi, an area in China
arid and semi-arid zones that the aquifer is unable to
14 suffering from water shortages,
recovers water from a well.
replenish the water. Examples are the Highland Plains
14
and Central Valley aquifers in the USA, the north-west
23
India plains aquifers, the North China Plain aquifer and
the Australian Great Artesian Basin. Meanwhile, the
11. IN FOCUS NEWS
The way forward
Venice will succumb to sea-
Water and land have become vitally strategic resources,
more interlinked than ever before. Confronted with level rise, the question is when
competing demands, policy-makers are faced with a
dilemma: how can they ensure food security without The newly published report of a workshop run by UNESCO’s
penalizing energy security, or satisfy both industrial and Venice Office on 22–23 November 2010 has concluded that
agricultural demands for water? ‘the planned mobile barriers (MOSE) might be able to avoid
The key to rational management will be to consider flooding [of the World Heritage site of Venice and its Lagoon]
different uses of water alongside each other, including for the next few decades but the sea will eventually rise to
domestic use, land management, agriculture, mining and a level where even continuous closures will not be able to
energy production. The best way to do this is to create a protect the city from flooding. The question is not if this will
structure within which competing interest groups – such as happen, but only when it will happen.’
water utilities, farmers, industry and mining, communities
and environmentalists – can hammer out coherent strate- In order to avoid flooding, the Italian authorities have author-
gies for meeting future challenges and uncertainties. To be ized the construction of an underwater barrier system, referred
fully inclusive, a broad group of stakeholders should also be to as the MOSE Project, which should be operational by 2014.
involved in the rule-setting process for the management of During the project planning phase, three scenarios for sea-level
both domestic and transboundary water resources. Combine rise by 2100 were considered: 16.4 cm, 22.0 cm – the scenario
these twin elements and you have what is called integrated recommended for the MOSE project – and a pessimistic scenario
water resource management. of 31.4 cm. Today, even the pessimistic scenario is considered
Water management has always been underpinned by overoptimistic.
uncertainty but global trends in demography, consumption The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007)
patterns, industrial development, migration and climate forecast global sea-level rise of 18–59 cm to 2100 but excluded
change are driving the level of uncertainty to unprecedented ice melt from its calculations, as this parameter could not be
levels, exacerbating risk. Integrated water resource manage- modelled. Observed global sea-level rise actually exceeded the
ment offers stakeholders the flexibility they need to be able model projections for the period 1961–2003 by 50% and for
to adapt strategies for water management when the future 1990–2008 by 80%.
doesn’t go according to plan. Other uncertainties stem from the insufficiently understood
This will be the challenge for water authorities: to move dynamics of heat uptake by the oceans, which causes oceans
from planning for one defined future to the use of plans to swell and thus sea level to rise, as well as from the variety of
that are responsive to a range of possible future scenarios, possible scenarios for future carbon emissions and the conse-
all uncertain but presenting varying degrees of probability. quential heating of the atmosphere.
In this new paradigm, technical specialists will need to Some recently published papers give higher estimates of global
interact with government decision-makers and society more sea-level rise: Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) give a range of
broadly, on the basis of reliable, objective information and 75–190 cm, Horton et al. (2008) a potential lower limit of 54–
data about the state of water resources and how they are 89 cm and Jevrejeva et al. (2010) a range of 60–160 cm. Looking
used and managed. farther ahead, the Delta Committee (2008) gives a range of
As part of preparations for the Rio+20 conference this June, 1.5–3.5 m for the year 2200, while the German Advisory Council
the UN Commission on Sustainable Development invited on Global Change (2006) estimates sea-level rise of 2.5–5.1 m
UN-Water to conduct a global survey last year to determine by 2300. ‘This means that sea-level rise will be governed in the
the extent of progress towards sustainable management of coming centuries by a delayed response to 21st century anthropo-
water resources using integrated approaches. Preliminary genic (human-induced) warming.’
findings from over 125 countries show that 64% of respon- As for sea level in the Mediterranean, it has shown strong vari-
dants have developed plans for the implementation of ability over the past century, rising by approximately 1.2 mm/
integrated water resource management, as recommended year, which is ‘significantly lower than the global average.’ Based
in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (2002), and on measurements from tide gauges, it even dropped a few centi-
that 34% are at an advanced stage of implementation. metres between 1960 and 1993 before rising 4–5 cm between
The only cloud on the horizon is that progress appears to 1993 and 2000, after which there was no change.
have slowed in countries with a low and medium Human One factor affecting regional sea level is atmospheric pres-
Development Index since an earlier survey in 2008. sure: a drop in pressure of 1 millibar (mbar) is equal to about a
1 cm rise in sea level. A rise in atmospheric pressure linked to
This article has been compiled by the editor from Managing the North Atlantic Oscillation was responsible for the drop in
Water under Uncertainty and Risk, the Fourth World Water sea level in the Mediterranean between 1960 and 1993. Climate
Development Report, with grateful thanks to the report team. models indicate that atmospheric pressure could rise in future in
the Mediterranean, causing a drop of 2 cm by 2100, or -0.2 mm/
To read or purchase the full report, see page 24 year on average.
10 A World of SCIENCE, Vol. 10, No. 2, April–June 2012
12. Visitors to Venice in September 2009
watch a young boy taking a dip in
flooded St Mark’s Square.
The workshop was organized by UNESCO
in partnership with Georg Umgiesser from
the Italian Institute of Marine Sciences of the
National Research Council, lead author on the
report. UNESCO has since organized three
Photo: Wikipedia Commons
other workshops to evaluate environmental,
cultural and socio-economic challenges faced
by Venice and its Lagoon in relation to global
change.
To read the report, see page 24
Another factor controlling sea-level change is the steric effect,
by which higher temperatures raise sea level, whereas higher
salinity lowers it. Scientists conclude from this that, although
there has been a rise in both temperature and salinity, the latter Mexican wins Kalinga Prize
could dominate in the Mediterranean.
As the Mediterranean Sea is linked to the Atlantic Ocean On 4 January, Mexican scientist René Raúl Drucker
through the Strait of Gibraltar, one crucial uncertainty concerns Colín was awarded the 2011 UNESCO Kalinga Prize
how exchanges through the strait will influence sea level in for the Popularization of Science, at a ceremony in
the Mediterranean. The latest findings indicate that the differ- Bhubaneswar (India).
ence between both basins should not be greater than 10 cm,
with an adjustment process that should not take longer than a A specialist in physiology and
few months. ‘Sea-level rise in the Mediterranean will thus be neurobiology, René Raúl Drucker
dominated by the global trend, even if some local differences Colín holds a degree in psychology
might continue to exist,’ states the report. ‘The fact that the from the National Autonomous
steric change in the level of the Mediterranean Sea could be University of Mexico and a doctorate
much less (or even negative) simply indicates that the contribu- in medicine from the University
tion of the Mediterranean to global sea-level rise will be much of Saskatchewan (Canada). He is
smaller than that of the other oceans. However, in the long run, renowned for his work in identifying
the Mediterranean will follow the global ocean.’ the role played by neurotransmitters
As the exchanges between the Adriatic and Mediterranean during sleep.
Seas are not restricted by a narrow strait, it is ‘conceivable that Prof. Drucker Colín is also an ardent promoter of science. His
the Adriatic Sea should follow very closely the trends in the work is published regularly in La Jornada, a leading Mexican
Mediterranean.’ daily, and he has participated over the past 12 years in the
Mean sea level is basically identical between the Adriatic science programmes of Televisa, a national broadcaster.
Sea and the Venice lagoon, despite the strong hydraulic control Prof. Drucker Colín was selected by UNESCO Director-
exerted by the inlets. The city begins to flood when the water General Irina Bokova on the recommendation of an inter-
level reaches 110 cm. Over the past century, the lagoon has been national jury.
gradually sinking, owing to natural subsidence and sea-level rise, The prize consists of US$20,000, together with a silver
combined with industrial extraction of groundwater. In the 1980s UNESCO Albert Einstein medal and certificate. It also includes
and 1990s, the average water level was about 23 cm above the the Kalinga Chair established by the Indian Department of
zero datum. This level is now closer to 30 cm above the datum. Science and Technology, comprising a two-week visit to India by
This means that sea-level rise of 80 cm would bring the mean the laureate to meet with scientists and science communicators.
water level to the critical threshold of 110 cm. In this case, Venice The UNESCO Kalinga Prize was created by UNESCO in
would experience regular flooding twice a day at high tide. 1951 and is awarded every two years. Financed jointly by the
Over the past three years, mean sea level in the lagoon has Kalinga Foundation in India, the Government of the State of
risen by about 10 cm during the summer months and by as much Orissa and the Government of India, the prize rewards the efforts
as 20 cm during the winter months. This rise correlates with a of writers, editors, lecturers, radio/television programme direc-
drop in atmospheric pressure from 2020 mbar to 2013 mbar in tors or film producers who have made a significant contribution
the past three years. It is doubtful that these trends will continue to presenting science and technology to the general public.
but mean sea level in the Adriatic Sea and close to the Venice
lagoon will likely be extremely variable. For details: (Delhi) a.fahmi@unesco.org; (Paris) y.nur@unesco.org
A World of SCIENCE, Vol. 10, No. 2, April–June 2012 11
13. NEWS
epilepsy, a brain disorder characterized by seizures
Laureates find new ways and other symptoms that can be extremely disruptive
Prof. Jill Farrant to the lives of the 50 million sufferers. She has also
of looking at old problems (South Africa)
described several new forms of epilepsy. She and
her colleagues were the first to show that sodium
In a ceremony at UNESCO headquarters in Paris channel genes caused febrile seizures, for instance,
on 29 March, five laureates will receive the L’Oréal- leading to a Belgian discovery that mutations to
UNESCO Award for Women in Science, which these genes caused Dravet Syndrome, a severe form
comes with prize-money of US$100,000. They will of epilepsy. Her findings have already improved
be joined by this year’s 16 fellows in life sciences Prof. Ingrid Scheffer diagnosis and treatment for many patients and may
(see map). The focus of the laureates' research is on (Australia) lead to new therapies.
medicine and on ‘resurrection plants.’ As Günter Prof. Frances Ashcroft is the laureate for Europe.
Blobel, President of the jury and Nobel laureate A Fellow of Trinity College at the University
in Medicine (1999), put it, ‘they have all uncovered of Oxford (UK), she has been recompensed for
new ways of looking at old problems.’ advancing our understanding of insulin secretion
and neonatal diabetes. In 1984, she discovered a
Prof. Jill Farrant is the laureate for Africa and protein that acted as the link between blood−glucose
Prof. Frances Ashcroft
the Arab States. She holds the Research Chair in (United Kingdom) levels and insulin secretion. As a result, people with
Plant Molecular Physiology at the University of a rare inherited form of diabetes can now simply take
Cape Town (South Africa) and has been recom- an existing drug in pill form, rather than enduring
pensed for discovering how plants survive under daily insulin injections. The drug has improved their
dry conditions. Prof. Farrant is the world’s leading blood glucose control and thereby reduced the risk
expert on resurrection plants, which ‘come back to of diabetic complications such as blindness and
life’ from a desiccated, seemingly dead state when Prof. Susana López
kidney disease; she is now studying why 25% of
given water. Her team’s ultimate goal is to develop (Mexico) these patients also have neurological problems. Prof.
drought-tolerant crops to nourish populations in Ashcroft is also exploring what goes wrong with
arid, drought-prone climates, notably in Africa. Her insulin secretion in adult-onset (type 2) diabetes,
research may also have medicinal applications. which affects 336 million people worldwide.
Prof. Ingrid Scheffer is the laureate for Asia− Prof. Susana López is the laureate for Latin
Pacific. A paediatric neurologist at the University of America. Based at the National University of
Melbourne (Australia), she has been recompensed Prof. Bonnie Bassler
Mexico, she has been recompensed for her studies
for identifying genes involved in certain forms of (USA) on rotaviruses, which cause gastroentiritis and
The 15 International Fellows
Elza van Deel and Special Fellow
(Netherlands)
Vita Majce
(Slovenia)
Mounira
Hmani-
Aifa
(Tunisia)
Special Naama Geva-
Fellow Zatorsky
(Israel)
Emna Harigua
(Tunisia) Dana Bazzoun
(Lebanon)
Dora Medina Patricia Miang
Aziza Kamel Lon Ng
(Mexico) (Singapore)
Peggoty Mutai (Egypt)
(Kenya)
Giomar Helena
Borrero Pérez Gladys Kahaka
(Colombia) (Namibia)
Kathrin Barboza Sidrotun Naim
Marquez (Indonesia)
(Bolivia)
Johannie Spaan Zoë Hilton
Photos for the L'Oréal Foundation (Laureates) Julian Dufort; (South Africa) (New Zealand)
(fellows) Melanie Frey/CAPA Pictures
12 A World of SCIENCE, Vol. 10, No. 2, April–June 2012
14. affect nearly every child on Earth under the age of five.
Every year, 600 000 children in developing countries die
from the resulting diarrhoea. The rotavirus was discovered
in 1973 but there is still no antiviral drug to control the
infection, antivirals being available so far only to prevent
the replication of such viruses as HIV herpes and influenza
,
A and B. With her colleagues, Prof. López has developed
new diagnostic tests, isolated several new rotavirus strains
Photo K.Aoudia/ICTP
and contributed to efforts to find a vaccine.
Prof. Bonnie Bassler is the laureate for North America.
A Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator and Squibb
Professor at Princeton University (USA), she has been
recompensed for showing that bacteria ‘talk’ to one another
using chemicals as their words. About 1 250 g of bacteria live Makeshift classrooms at the Université d'État du Haiti
in the gut and on the skin of every human body. Although
bacteria live as single cells, Prof. Bassler was convinced that
bacteria were ineffective on their own and had to work as ‘science can play an important part in Haiti’s long-term
co-ordinated ‘armies’ to keep us healthy (such as by digesting sustainable development.’
food) or make us sick (by causing disease). To act in unison, ‘The situation for science in Haiti is bad,’ says Aoudia, a seismo-
groups of bacteria had to communicate with one other. Her logist with the ICTP’s Earth System Physics group. ‘There is no
startling discoveries may someday lead to new antibiotics that money to support it, no local expertise and few incentives to keep
interfere with bacterial conversations as well as many other professors in the country. What few professors they do have will
applications, such as infection-resistant surgical implants. be retiring in the next few years, presenting an urgent need to train
For details: www.forwomeninscience.com; s.bahri@unesco.org their replacements.’ Perhaps most surprisingly – for a country
straddling the intersection of the North American and Caribbean
tectonic plates –, there are no seismologists in Haiti.
Aoudia hopes to change that. ‘The long-term issue will be to
ICTP takes seismology course build basic science capacity,’ he says, noting that currently there
is no possibility to earn a science degree in Haiti. Two years
to epicentre of Haitian tragedy after a 7.0-magnitude earthquake claimed the lives of a stag-
gering 316 000 people and left almost another million homeless,
From 15 to 28 January, the Science Faculty of the Université efforts are still focusing on rebuilding education infrastructure.
d’État du Haiti (UEH) in Port-au-Prince played host to a seis- At UEH, classes meet in hangar-type structures open to the
mology school run by Karim Aoudia from UNESCO’s Abdus elements (see photo). There are no walls between classrooms
Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP). and a bustling market in front of the campus adds to the back-
ground noise competing for the students’ attention.
The intensive two-week course covered the full spectrum of
earthquake sciences, from physics to risk reduction, with the For details: aoudia@ictp.it
support of the university’s rector, Jean Vernet Henry.
Aoudia was able to secure 20 computers with a steady power
supply for the workshop, with the help of UEH staff. Originating A graduate diploma in nano-
mostly from UEH’s engineering programme, participants learned
earthquake theory and how to read and analyse datasets on the science for Arab universities
minor earthquakes that shook Haiti during the workshop. They
also learned how to save lives in the event of an earthquake. When the new academic year gets under way in October,
‘The students told me that one of the first things they would do four universities in Egypt and Sudan will be offering a
after the workshop would be to visit all of the schools in Port- new graduate diploma in nanoscience. The curriculum has
au-Prince to instruct young Haitians on what to do if there is an been developed by UNESCO’s Network for the Expansion
earthquake,’ Aoudia explains. of Converging Technologies in the Arab Region (NECTAR)
In addition to sponsoring the Port-au-Prince workshop, ICTP and will first be proposed by the Egyptian–Japanese
has donated 150 science books to UEH’s new library and is University for Science and Technology, Helwan University
actively recruiting Haitian students for its Postgraduate Diploma (Egypt), Khartoum University and the Future University
Programme. (Sudan), before being replicated in other Arab countries.
But much more is needed. Although the 2010 earthquake
may have focused the world’s attention and much-needed UNESCO’s Regional Bureau for Science in the Arab States
funding on the Caribbean island, ‘momentum from that has been collaborating with renowned scientists for the
wave of goodwill is slowing,’ worries Aoudia. Even though past year to develop the curricula for the graduate diploma.
A World of SCIENCE, Vol. 10, No. 2, April–June 2012 13