1. ASBO MD & DC Annual Spring Conference
May 23, 2011
Rick Gay, CPPO, RSBO
Purchasing Manager
Baltimore County Public Schools
ISO 9001/2008 Certified
NIGP Outstanding Agency Accreditation Achievement Award – OA4
2011 Candidate for 2012 ASBO International Board of Directors

2. Decision making is a key role for any manager or
leader. Surprisingly many people struggle when
it comes to making decisions. This might be due
to:
 Fear of failure
 Lack of a structured approach
 Procrastinating
 Lack of clarity
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3.  Sometimes shooting from the hip, good leaders
can make decisions quickly -- often with
incomplete data.
As Theodore Roosevelt said, "In any moment of
decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing,
the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst
thing you can do is nothing."
 Rarely is a leader able to get 100 percent of the
information needed for a decision. Typically it
is "60 percent and go" or "80 percent and go."
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4.  “We’ve never done it that way”
 “We’re not ready for that yet”
 “Were doing all right without it”
 ”We tried it once and it didn’t work”
 “It costs too much”
 “That’s not our responsibility”
 “It won’t work”
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5.  Every decision is made to achieve some kind of
goal or objective.
 So, the next step would involve charting down the
goals that you want your decision to achieve.
 At this stage, it is also necessary to make a note of
the consequences that are not desirable once the
decision is made.
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6.  Constituents perspective: To achieve our vision,
how should we appear to constituents?
 Financial perspective: To succeed financially, how
should we appear to our stakeholders?
 Internal business process: To satisfy stakeholders
and constituents, what business processes must we
excel at?
 Learning and growth perspective: To achieve our
vision, how will we sustain our ability to change and
improve?
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7.  Defining the Problem
 Develop Alternatives
 Evaluate the Alternatives
 Assess the implications
 Explore different perspectives
 Get clear on your ideal outcome
 Weigh up pros and cons
 Make the Decision and Act
 Implement the Solution
 Monitor your Solution
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9.  The first step involved in a decision making process is
to understand the importance of making the decision.
 Define the problem precisely.
 State the underlying problem that has to be solved.
 You also have to clearly state the outcome or goal that
you desire after you have made the decision.
 Know specifically who said, ordered, or demanded
what.
 Don’t settle for secondhand information.
 Get Details.
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10.  Stating your goals would help you in clarifying
your thoughts. You would have to make a list of
some important factors like:
 Time required to make the decision
 Result of making a good and a bad decision
 People who would help you
 Who will face the consequences of the decision?
 Affect of the decision on you and the people
around you
 What will happen if the decision is not made?
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11.  A tool that identifies the Strengths, Weaknesses,
Opportunities and Threats of an organization.
 SWOT assesses what an organization can and
cannot do as well as its potential opportunities and
threats.
 The method of SWOT analysis is to take the
information from an environmental analysis and
separate it into internal (strengths and weaknesses)
and external issues (opportunities and threats).
 SWOT analysis determines what may assist the
agency in accomplishing its objectives, and what
obstacles must be overcome or minimized to
achieve desired results.
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12.  When using SWOT analysis, be realistic about the
strengths and weaknesses of your organization.
 Distinguish between where your organization is
today, and where it could be in the future.
 Also remember to be specific by avoiding gray
areas and always analyze in relation to the
competition (i.e., are you better or worse than the
competition?).
 Finally, keep your SWOT analysis short and
simple, and avoid complexity and over-analysis
since much of the information is subjective.
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13.  Be realistic about the strengths and weaknesses
of your organization.
 The Analysis should distinguish between
where your organization is today, and where it
could be in the future.
 Be specific. Avoid gray areas.
 Always analyze in relation to your
competition, i.e., better than or worse than your
competition .
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14.  Keep your SWOT short and simple - but only
as short and simple as the application or
situation demands - it is about 'fitness for
purpose’.
 Avoid unnecessary complexity and over
analysis.
 There is no point listing an opportunity (O) if
the same opportunity is available to
competitors.
 It is pointless to say you have strengths (S) if
your competitors have the same.
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15.  An unclear goal
 Maintaining too narrow of a focus
 Neglecting input from others
 Performing an analysis only once
 Reliance on SWOT as a holistic diagnostic
strategy
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16. POSITIVE/ HELPFUL NEGATIVE/ HARMFUL
to achieving the goal to achieving the goal
Strengths
Weaknesses
INTERNAL Origin Things that are good
Things that are bad
facts/ factors of the now, maintain them,
now, remedy, change or
organization build on them and use
stop them.
as leverage
Opportunities
Threats
EXTERNAL Origin Things that are good for
Things that are bad for
facts/ factors of the the future, prioritize
the future, put in plans
environment in which the them, capture them,
to manage them or
organization operates build on them and
counter them
optimize
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17.  Your specialist marketing expertise.
 A new, innovative product or service.
 Location of your business.
 Quality processes and procedures.
 Any other aspect of your business that adds value
to your product or service.
 Positive tangible and intangible attributes, internal
to an organization.
 They are within the organization’s control.
 What do you do well? Is there anything you do
better than most? Better than anyone else?
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18.  Lack of marketing expertise.
 Undifferentiated products or services (i.e. in relation to
your competitors).
 Location of your business.
 Poor quality goods or services.
 Damaged reputation.
 Factors that are within an organization’s control that
detract from its ability to attain the desired goal.
 Which areas might the organization improve?
 What should be improved? What do you do poorly?
What should you avoid, based on mistakes in the past?
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19.  A developing market such as the Internet.
 Mergers, joint ventures or strategic alliances.
 Moving into new market segments that offer
improved opportunity to change.
 External attractive factors that represent the
reason for an organization to exist and develop.
 A New legislative mandate or federal program
 Cost containment measures
 What opportunities exist in the environment,
which will propel the organization?
Identify them by their “time frames”
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20.  A new competitor in your home market.
 A competitor has a new, innovative product or service.
 Competitors have superior access to channels of
distribution.
 Taxation is introduced or increased on your product or
service.
 External factors, beyond an organization’s control,
which could place the organization mission or
operation at risk.
 The organization may benefit by having contingency
plans to address them if they should occur.
 Classify them by their “seriousness” and “probability
of occurrence”.
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22.  The situation of making a decision arises because there
are many alternatives available for it.
 Hence, the next step after defining the main problem would
be to state the alternatives available for that particular
situation.
 You do not have to restrict yourself to thinking about the
very obvious options, rather you can use your creative skills
and come out with alternatives that may look a little
irrelevant.
 This is important because sometimes solutions can come out
from these out-of-the-box ideas.
 You would also have to do adequate research to come up
with the necessary facts that would aid in solving the
problem.
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23.  For a person to make a decision, he or she has to be
confronted with two or more options.
 So, this requires you to make a draft stating the options that
are available to you.
 One can also create some options that do not exist in reality.
Doing this may help you find some solution to your problem
and make the decision process a little easier.
 Once you have listed the available options, you
have to examine each option and make a section
for options that seem to be very promising and
those that seem not so relevant.
 However, you have to be careful not to remove any option
from your list before it is analyzed in detail.
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24.  Brainstorming is a process for developing creative solutions to
problems. Brainstorming works by focusing on a problem, and
then deliberately coming up with as many solutions as possible
and by pushing the ideas as far as possible.
 One of the reasons it is so effective is that the participants not only
come up with new ideas in a session, but also spark off from
associations with other people's ideas by developing and refining
them.
 conference technique of solving specific problems, amassing
information, stimulating creative thinking, developing new ideas,
etc., by unrestrained and spontaneous participation in discussion.
 A method of shared problem solving in which all members of a
group spontaneously contribute ideas.
 A similar process undertaken by a person to solve a problem by
rapidly generating a variety of possible solutions.
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25.  Collect as many ideas as possible from all participants with no criticisms
or judgments made while ideas are being generated.
 All ideas are welcome no matter how silly or far out they seem. Be
creative. The more ideas the better because at this point you don't know
what might work.
 Absolutely no discussion takes place during the brainstorming activity.
Talking about the ideas will take place after brainstorming is complete.
 Do not criticize or judge. Don't even groan, frown, or laugh. All ideas are
equally valid at this point.
 Do build on others' ideas.
 Do write all ideas on a flipchart or board so the whole group can easily
see them.
 Set a time limit (e.g., 30 minutes) for the brainstorming.
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26.  One team member should review the topic of the
brainstorm using "why", "how", or "what" questions.
 Everyone should think about the question silently for a
few moments. Each person might want to jot down
his/her ideas on a sheet of paper.
 Everyone suggests ideas by calling them out. Another
way is to go around the room and have each person
read an idea from his/her list until all ideas have been
written on the board or flipchart. (Note: The team
member in charge of the brainstorming session should
be enforcing the rules.)
 One team member writes down all ideas on board or
flipchart.
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27.  Reverse brain-storming is a good technique for
creative problem solving, and can lead to robust
solutions.
 Be sure to follow the basic rules of brainstorming
to explore possible solutions to the full.
 Reverse brainstorming helps you solve problems
by combining brainstorming and reversal
techniques.
 To use this technique, you start with one of two
"reverse" questions:
 Instead of asking, "How do I solve or prevent this problem?"
ask, "How could I possibly cause the problem?"
 Instead of asking "How do I achieve these results?" ask,"How
could I possibly achieve the opposite effect?"
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28.  Clearly identify the problem or challenge, and write it
down.
 Reverse the problem or challenge by asking:
"How could I possibly cause the problem?", or
"How could I possibly achieve the opposite effect?"
 Brainstorm the reverse problem to generate reverse
solution ideas. Allow the brainstorm ideas to flow
freely. Do not reject anything at this stage.
 Once you have brainstormed all the ideas to solve the
reverse problem, now reverse these into solution ideas
for
the original problem or challenge.
 Evaluate these solution ideas.
Can you see a potential solution?
Can you see attributes of a potential solution?
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30.  Lay out possible courses of action.
 Consider courses of action in view of your
organizations values.
 Consider the consequences of your decision.
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31. At this step, you have to develop some criteria,
according to which you have to compare the
various options available to you. These criteria
are conditions that would help you in evaluating
the different options and would aid you in
Making the decision.
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32. Once you have decided on the criteria, it is time
for analysis of each option according to the set
conditions. Make a table, where the criteria
appears in columns and options appear in rows.
Rate each option with a numerical digit, as to
how it would be beneficial for each criteria.
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33. This can be said to be the one of the most important
stages of the decision making process. This is the stage
where you have to analyze each alternative you have
come up with. You have to find out the advantages and
disadvantages of each option. This can be done based on
the research you have done on that particular alternative.
at this stage, you can also filter out the options that you
think are impossible or do not serve your purpose. Rating
each option with a numerical digit would also help in the
filtration process.
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34. After rating the available options according to
criteria, try to combine different options that are
available to you and see whether you can come
up with a better solution, instead of just choosing
one option. You also have to summarize the
results you got for each option to make the final
decision.
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35. Step 4 is where you have to analyze the different
options in detail. Your analysis would be on the basis of
what would be the result of each option available to you.
You can take the help of different people at this stage,
asking them to give their opinion on each option. Here,
you would be able to recognize certain options that
require more research or contemplation. This stage is a
filtration process where the options that seem to be
irrelevant should be taken out of the list and only the best
possible ones retained.
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36.  Groupthink is a phenomenon that occurs when the
desire for group consensus overrides people's
common sense desire to present alternatives,
critique a position, or express an unpopular
opinion.
 The desire for group cohesion effectively drives
out good decision-making and problem solving.
 Two well-known examples of Groupthink in action
are the
 Challenger Space Shuttle disaster
 The Bay of Pigs invasion
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37. The term "Groupthink" was coined by Irving Janis in
1972 when he was researching why a team reaches an
excellent decision one time, and a disastrous one the
next. What he found was that a lack of conflict or
opposing viewpoints led to poor decisions,
because alternatives were not fully analyzed, and
because groups did not gather enough information to
make an informed decision.
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38.  A strong, persuasive group leader.
 A high level of group cohesion.
 Intense pressure from the outside to make a good decision.
 Groupthink-like behavior is found in many situations and
across many types of groups and team settings.
 Groupthink can severely undermine the value of a group's
work and, at its worst, it can cost people their lives.
 On a lesser scale, it can stifle teamwork, and leave all but the
most vocal team members disillusioned and dissatisfied.
 Teams are capable of being much more effective than
individuals but, when Groupthink sets in, the opposite can
be true.
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40. This is the stage where the hard work you have
put in analyzing would lead you to. The
Evaluation process would help you in looking at
the available options clearly and you have to pick
which you think is the most applicable. You can
also combine some of the alternatives to come out
with a better solution instead of just picking out
one of them.
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41.  When all the ideas have been recorded, combine them
as much as possible, but only when the original
contributors agree.
 Number all of the ideas.
 Each member votes on the ideas by making a list of the
numbers of the ideas he/she thinks are important or
should be discussed further. This list should contain no
more than one-third of the total number of ideas.
 After counting the votes, cross out ideas with only one
or two votes. Then vote again until only a few ideas
remain(i.e., 3 or 4). If there is no clear-cut winner, then
vote again or discuss the remaining ideas and
determine which idea best answers the original
question.
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42.  This is the final stage, where you have to make the
ultimate decision.
 Before you do this it is important to go through all the
steps and recheck all the information. This
would be beneficial for delaying the time of taking the
final decision, if you find any missing information.
 One very important thing that you have to keep in
mind is that every decision you take would have some
level of risk.
 Knowing the potential risk involved in the decision one
makes would aid in preparing for the problem that
arises with the decision.
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44. The next obvious step after choosing an option
would be implementing the solution. Just making
the decision would not give the result one wants.
Rather, you have to carry out on the decision you
have made. This is a very crucial step because all
the people involved in the implementation of a
solution should know about the implications of
making the decision. This is very essential for the
decision to yield successful results.
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46. Making the decision and implementing it is
not the end of the decision making process; it is
very important to monitor your decision on a
Regular basis. At this stage, you have to keep a
close eye on the progress of the solution taken
and also whether it has led to the results you
expected.
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47.  Improving practical thinking
 Applying guidelines
 Moving thinking upstream
 Finding hidden assumptions
 Keeping track of unexpected events
 Thinking from varied perspectives
 Applying practical reasoning
 Adapting to the situation
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48.  Practical thinking captures the strengths of how we think for
everyday problems, calling on experience more than formal
models.
 Practical thinking includes creative and critical elements.
 Creative thinking techniques help to generate new information.
 Critical thinking brings out differences that would normally
not be obvious. Both types of thinking help to fill in gaps in
knowledge and resolve uncertainty.
 Signs of a practical thinker include a willingness to try
alternate approaches to thinking, being open to others’
positions, being prepared to think about issues instead of
ignoring or dismissing them, and asking insightful questions.
 The qualities of a critical thinker include seeking the truth, an
open mindedness, analytical, systematic, self –confident,
inquisitive, and mature.
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49.  There is no perfect set of guidelines for success.
 Improvement requires self-reflection and hard
work to adopt new habits.
 Making one’s thinking habits more deliberate
will prompt self-reflection and through practice
eventually make the improved thinking less
effortful.
 Improved thinking strategies will create greater
self-confidence, making it more likely that
challenges will be addressed rather than
ignored.
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50.  Thinking ahead and predicting potential ways
that a situation assessment may be wrong or
that a course of action could depart from
what’s anticipated will make one better
prepared to handle the unknown.
 Having identified and thought about various
contingencies will better prepare you for
various future events.
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51. Coming up with reasons against a
preferred conclusion or option instead of in
favor of that conclusion or option will
improve thoroughness of reasoning and
give you a basis for contingencies that may
occur.
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52.  A natural tendency is to discount information
when it does not fit into our expectations.
 Over time, accumulated unexpected
information can cause a shift in your
understanding of a situation.
 The first step in this direction is to pay special
attention to information that does not fit into
expectations.
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53.  Looking at problems from different perspectives can
improve one’s understanding of a situation, solution goals,
and available options.
 Taking multiple perspectives helps to understand situations,
find new or creative solutions, and reasons about solutions.
 Any shortcoming or restriction in one’s perspective is a
possible source of problems in reasoning.
 Problem solvers can adopt different perspectives by taking
on the role of another, using new/different frames of
reference, shifting attention or importance about various
problem elements, reversing the goal, etc.
 These require an openness of mind to be willing to apply a
different perspective and practice in flexibility at shifting
perspectives.
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54.  There are different ways to improve reasoning ability.
 One way is to have a standard set of questions to ask
yourself when faced with uncertainty, when there is an
over-willingness to accept what is heard, or when there is a
lack of critical thinking. One set of such questions is the
following:
 What if? (e.g., what if this assessment were not the case?)
 What else? (e.g., what else could be happening?)
 So what? (e.g., is there a practical difference?)
 What specifics? (e.g., can claims be confirmed with specific
information?)
 Is there a weak link? (e.g., are there any inconsistencies or
confusions?)
 What is unexpected? (e.g., is there incomplete or poor reasoning?)
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55.  By increasing the awareness of your own thinking, mental
capabilities can be allocated to the problems at hand.
 One needs to learn how you think, the patterns and strategies that
are used and that have developed naturally throughout your life.
 Being better in touch with these can give you what is needed to
increase the chances for successful problem resolution.
 To guide thinking we should think deliberately about how to
solve problems and decide.
 This process is similar to decision triage. Use the GO-FITE-WIN
questions to remind how to plan your thinking:
 What are Goals and Obstacles of thinking?
 How Familiar is the situation?
 How Important is it?
 How much Time is available?
 How much Effort is required for an acceptable level of effort?
 What's Important Now?
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