Twitter Inc. emerged as a leader in real-time data distribution. With a great product, Twitter has a powerful brand image. However, the company has a weak financial status. In addition to $2.26 Billion in debt, Twitter Inc has low margins, stagnated growth and is heading to a financial decline.
In this report, we aim to provide a detailed analysis of the financial health of Twitter Inc. and the financial characterization of the business.
Financial Analysis and characterization of Twitter
1. FSM Task 2 Part 2 - Financial Analysis and Characterization of Twitter Inc.
Team Hoptimus Prime (Riah Sathe, Allen Chen, Lan Liu, Weizhi Zhang)
Overview
Twitter Inc. emerged as a leader in real-time data distribution. With a great product, Twitter has a
powerful brand image. However, the company has a weak financial status. In addition to $2.26 Billion in
debt, Twitter Inc has low margins, stagnated growth and is heading to a financial decline.
In this report, we aim to provide a detailed analysis of the financial health of Twitter Inc. and the financial
characterization of the business.
Background
Twitter was created in March 2006 by Jack Dorsey, Noah Glass, Biz Stone, and Evan Williams and
launched in July of that year. Twitter is a service for friends, family, and coworkers to communicate and
stay connected through the exchange of quick, frequent messages[1]. Twitter Inc. is an Internet company
headquartered in San Francisco, CA with over 25 offices worldwide.
In terms of value proposition, Twitter Inc. offers stakeholders several benefits including: [2]
- User Benefits : Users share content & also receive real-time relevant content.
- Advertiser Benefits : Advertisers can have real-time connect with the audience.
- Data Partner Benefits : Data can be analyzed to generate insights to monetize.
Twitter’s revenue model is based on advertising and data reselling. In comparison to other internet
businesses with an advertising revenue model, Twitter lacks concrete demographic information. Due to
lack of information like gender & age, Twitter Inc. cannot sell highly targeted ads at a higher rate like its
competitor, Facebook can.[3]
In order to bolster their capabilities and improve its market position, Twitter Inc. has acquired 54
companies in total. Despite this, Twitter has strayed very little from its value proposition prior to its Initial
Public Offering (IPO) which was on Nov 7, 2013.
Analysis of Twitter’s Current Financial Situation
On analyzing Twitter Inc.’s annual reports (Table 1), the company assets in 2016 were $6.87 Billion and
debt were reported at $2.26 Billion. The assets were higher than that in 2015 which were reported at $6.64
Billion. However, so were the total liabilities, which increased from $1.95 Billion.
With a total equity at $4.6 Billion, Twitter’s debt-to-equity ratio, calculated as 49.2% at the end of 2016,
is ranked lower than 62% of the 199 companies in the Global Internet Content & Information industry
(Industry Median: 0.26 vs. TWTR: 0.37) [5]. A high debt-to-equity ratio generally means that a company
has been aggressive in financing its growth with debt. This can result in volatile earnings as a result of the
additional interest expense. Debt may not necessarily be bad, but it inevitably plays a role in future
revenue growth[5].
Twitter Inc. has a current ratio of 11.8 at the end of 2016. It indicates the company may not be efficiently
using its current assets or its short-term financing facilities. This may also indicate problems in working
capital management.
2. Consolidated Balance Sheet
December 31, December 31,
2016 2015
Assets
Total current assets 4,652,196 4,381,792
Total assets $ 6,870,365 $ 6,442,439
Liabilities and stockholders' equity
Total current liabilities 584,021 506,039
Total liabilities 2,265,430 2,074,392
Total stockholders' equity 4,604,935 4,368,047
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity
$ 6,870,365 $ 6,442,439
Debt Asset Ratio
32.97% 32.2%
Debt Equity Ratio
49.2% 47.49%
Current Ratio
11.8 12.7
Table 1: 2016 Consolidated Balance Sheet [4, pp. 66]
To comprehensively look at Twitter’s financial health, we have to look at several metrics as well. Two
major ones are ROIC, an indicator of how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it
has invested in its business, and ROE, an indicator shows how well a company uses investment funds to
generate earnings growth. For Twitter 2016, both indicators are negative, with -15.5% in ROIC and
-10.8% in ROE respectively. These numbers show that Twitter is bleeding a lot of money, meaning that
Twitter’s earnings returns that can’t match up to its cost would be detrimental to this value as it grows.
Fiscal year is January-December. All
values USD millions. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net Operating Cash Flow (27.94M) 1.4M 81.8M 383.07M 763.06M
Net Operating Cash Flow Growth - 105.00% 5750.93% 368.32% 99.20%
Net Operating Cash Flow / Sales -8.81% 0.21% 5.83% 17.27% 30.16
Net Investing Cash Flow 49.44M (1.31B) (1.1B) (902.42M) (598.01M)
Net Investing Cash Flow Growth - -2741.56% 15.99% 17.76% 33.73%
Net Investing Cash Flow / Sales 15.60% -196.43% -78.21% -40.69% -23.64%
Net Financing Cash Flow (37.12M) 1.94B 1.69B (63M) (83.98M)
Net Financing Cash Flow Growth - 5331.59% -12.90% -103.72% -33.30%
Net Financing Cash Flow / Sales -11.71% 292.10% 120.58% -2.84% -3.32%
Free Cash Flow (78.53M) (74.35M) (119.83M) 35.79M 544.4M
Free Cash Flow Growth - 5.33% -61.18% 129.86% 1421.26%
Free Cash Flow Yield - - - - 4.76%
Table 2: Cash Flow Sheet
From 2012 to 2016, Twitter’s Net Cash provided by Operating Activities was positive, Net Cash provided
by Investing Activities was negative, and Net Cash provided by Financing Activities was negative (Table
2). This data reveals that they tried to occupy more market with an increasing sale and tried to achieve
3. more investment. Their Net Financing Cash Flow is gradually decreasing, which reveals their drop in
capital stock.
Twitter made several investments in these years, especially on Purchase/Sale of Investments and Capital
Expenditures. Twitter’s Capital Expenditures came at peak of $347.28 Million in 2015, and their Free
Cash Flow (FCF) was growing up to $544.4 Million in 2016, which may indicate a positive financial
performance, and it could be a sign that the company was making large investments.
Twitter Inc’s revenue (Total Asset) has been climbing much more slowly than their cost (Total Liability
& Equity) (Chart 2), which reveals that Twitter expanded very quickly but failed to establish a successful
business model.
Twitter’s Financial Stagnation and Inevitable Decline
Despite the largely positive talk surrounding the 73 per cent surge in stock that Twitter Inc. witnessed in
its public debut, the Twitter IPO was actually a failure from the company perspective. Twitter underpriced
its shares at 26$ instead of the 45$ it could have priced it at, losing out on $1.5 Billion[14].
In 2016, Twitter’s total revenue was $2.53 Billion, up 7% from $2.2 Billion in 2015 (Table 3). During the
past 12 months, the average Revenue Growth Rate of Twitter Inc was -7.90% per year. During the past 3
years, the average revenue per share Growth Rate was 0.90% per year [5]. It is in decline over the past 12
months. This is a clear sign that Twitter now is enduring a worrisome stagnation period.
Consolidated Statement of Operations Data
(In thousands, except per share data)
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Revenue $ 2,529,619 $ 2,218,032 $ 1,403,002 $ 664,890 $ 316,933
Costs and expenses
Cost of revenue 932,240 729,256 446,309 266,718 128,768
Research and development 713,482 806,648 691,543 593,992 119,004
Sales and marketing 957,829 871,491 614,110 316,216 86,551
General and administrative 293,276 260,673 189,906 123,795 59,693
Total costs and expenses 2,896,827 2,668,068 1,941,868 1,300,721 394,016
Loss from operations (367,208) (450,036) (538,866) (635,831) (77,083)
Interest expense (99,968) (98,178) (35,918) (7,576) (3,255)
Other income (expense), net 26,342 14,909 (3,567) (3,739) 1,168
Loss before income taxes (440,834) (533,305) (578,351 (647,146) (79,170)
Provision (benefit) for income taxes 16,039 (12,274) (531) (1,823) 229
Net loss $ (456,873) $ (521,031) $ (577,820) $ (645,323) $ (79,399)
Other Financial Information:
Adjusted EBITDA $ 751,493 $ 557,807 $ 300,896 $ 75,430 $ 21,164
Non-GAAP net income (loss) $ 405,996 $ 276,629 $ 101,071 $ (34,330) $ (35,191)
Table 3: Consolidated Statement of Operations Data[4,p.40]
Subtracting its cost of revenue results in a Gross Profit of $1.59 Billion. Twitter Inc's Gross Margin for
the fiscal year that ended in Dec. 2016 is calculated as 63.15%, which is considered as having “durable
4. competitive advantage”[5] . The 5-Year average Growth Rate of Gross Margin for Twitter Inc was 7.60%
per year[5]. However, this is not enough. The gross profit needs to be big enough to also cover related
labor, equipment, rental, marketing/advertising, research and development and a lot of other costs in
selling the products. Unfortunately, Twitter. Inc spent a large chunk of money on all kinds of expenses,
which lead to a result of negative net income.
Twitter Inc's Net Income for the fiscal year that ended in Dec. 2016 is calculated as -457 million, with the
net margin of -18.5%, is ranked lower than 83% of the 369 Companies in the Global industry[5]. The net
margin of Twitter, compared with its strong gross margin, indicates this company is likely to be in a
highly competitive business. These margin metrics are particularly bad for Twitter because it is hinting at
an industry that it cannot keep pace with.
Percentage of Revenue
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Revenue
Advertising Services 89% 90% 90% 89% 85%
Data Licensing and other 11 10 10 11 15
Total Revenue 100 100 100 100 100
Costs and expenses
Cost of revenue 37 33 32 40 41
Research and development 28 36 49 89 38
Sales and marketing 38 39 44 48 27
General and administrative 12 12 14 19 19
Total costs and expenses 115 120 138 196 124
Loss from operations (15) (20) (38) (96) (24)
Interest expense (4) (4) (3) (1) (1)
Other income (expense), net 1 1 0 1 0
Loss before income taxes (17) (24) (41) (97) (250)
Provision (benefit) for income taxes 1 1 0 0 0
Net loss % (18) % (23) % (41) % (97) % (25)
Table 4: Percentage of Revenue Data [4,p.49][6.p.55]
Twitter’s revenue percentages (Table 4), reveal that Sales & Marketing played a major role in Twitter’s
Net Loss with a percentage of 38%.Twitter's SGA for 2016 is 1.25 Billion (Table 3). The percentage of
Twitter’s SGA relative to total revenue is 78.32%, which indicates a low efficiency of operations. An
efficient operation can always keeps SGA costs low and thus has higher profit margin. Research &
Development of Twitter, at 28% in 2016, show a declining trend compared to the former years.
Twitter Inc.’s operating margin for 2016 is 6.68%. Its operating margin has been in 5-year decline. The
average rate of decline per year is -29%. This means Twitter might face problem in future trend because
of competitors.
Assessment of financial strength, investment attractiveness
The company’s financial outlook looks gloomy from the annual sheets, it hasn’t been profitable ever since
its IPO and the growth was disappointing especially compared to its major competitor Facebook.
5. However, its most recent Q3 earning which is after the trading hours of Oct 25 had demonstrate a major
mitigation in its losses,indicating that the company will likely turn profitable under GAAP standard[9],
which is fundamentally deterministic to its investment potentials.
In its letter for shareholders for Q3 earnings[9], several positive signs appear. Engagement and audience
are growing, albeit a slow rate. DAU increment(+14% YoY) has far outpaced MAU(+4% YoY), which
indicates a substantial improvement of engagement among existing users. The growth was driven by a
combination of organic growth, marketing, and product, including the ongoing benefits of improved
relevance in email, push notifications, and the timeline. We also saw increased usage due to the Twitter
redesign and enhanced personalization in the Explore tab. It has continued to achieve greater operating
efficiency with a GAAP net margin of (4%), and record adjusted EBITDA margins of 35%. What’s
especially important is its cost per engagement (CPE) has decreased 54% year-over-year, which has led to
a substantial decrease in the net loss even under GAAP standard of $21 million, which resulting in GAAP
net margin of (4%) and it’s now almost close to breakeven. GAAP operating income in the quarter was $7
million, compared to an operating loss of $78 million in the prior year. This marks its first quarter with
positive operating income on a GAAP basis. The downtrend of cost has give investor confidence that it
will soon be profitable despite relative stagnant revenue growth. Most of revenue has continued to grow at
a steady pace, which also add to its financial strength.
The letter claims that there has been improved sales execution which drove Q3 revenue. New product line
is a decisive factor for revenue growth under existing user base and we could see significant attempt on
live streaming which is proven to be extremely profitable in the global market. There should be a lot to
expect for these new business in the next two or three quarters.
The decisive part of the earning conference call is the prospect of Q4. For Q4, the company expect:
• Adjusted EBITDA to be between $220 million and $240 million
• Adjusted EBITDA margin to be between 35% and 36%
• Capital expenditures to be no more than $110 million
• Stock-based compensation expense to be in the range of $90 million to $100 million
They also expect that at the high end of our adjusted EBITDA range, they will likely be GAAP profitable,
which is the first time ever since its IPO. If it succeed in attaining this goal and the trend continues, the
valuation of $TWTR will be fundamentally revised by the market.
In the recent years shares of $TWTR has dropped significantly. It’s now less than one third from its all
time high, even after the smashing positive earning surprise. Its incompetence in both pricing of ads and
the growth of users compared to Facebook is not a secret. As $FB soared again and again, $TWTR
remains in the bear market for a long time. However, what is behind the sheets and losses is that Twitter
is actually an intrinsically highly profitable business. It has a gross margin of 64.38% and has not
significantly changed overtime[10]. While it is not as high as its major competitor $FB’s 86%+ and its
Chinese counterpart $WB’s 80%+, it is still an impressive rate that is higher than $SNAP’s 16.25%.
Although its profitability is far from its competitors as a well-established online social network with 330
million MAU, $TWTR has its wide moat. There could hardly emerge a new social network that is at this
magnitude.
Additionally, Twitter has two indicators which make it attractive for buyout : A large number of daily
active users which is increasing consistently (chart 1) and a large amount of revenue. Buyout speculation
appears to driving the stock higher, making it attractive to potential investors[11]. Last year, the company
was reported to be in talks with Disney for a potential acquisition[12].
6. It is interesting to note that prior to IPO in 2013, Twitter had stated in its S-1 filings that future
acquisitions could be detrimental to its financial results[8]. At the time, the company had revenue of
$253.6 million and 215 million monthly active users, a number which has since increased by over 50 per
cent. The company had experienced rapid growth from 2011 to 2012 with a 198% increase in revenue in
the pre-IPO stages. In the 6 months leading up to the IPO, revenue had increased by 107 % and adjusted
EBITDA increased by $20.7 million.
Conclusion
Twitter Inc has a financially weak position in comparison to its major competitor Facebook. The company
is ranked at the lower end of the spectrum in terms of net margin [5] but still generates large revenue. In
terms of its revenue model, Twitter cannot be as successful in its targeted advertising revenue model due
to lack of solid demographic data, compared to Facebook[3]. However, as a leader in real-time data
distribution, the company has a unique advantage due to its larger daily active user base. Though Twitter
is currently stagnant in its financial growth, it has always remained attractive to investors with its stock
surging 73 per cent above its initial offering price after IPO on the day of its public debut[13]. Ultimately,
the company may have a successful buyout despite being its weak financial status and impending decline.
Charts
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Chart 1 : Number of monthly active Twitter users worldwide from 1st quarter 2010 to 3rd quarter 2017 (in millions)
Chart 2 : Revenue v.s Total Cost with Trend(in millions) / Net Loss as a Percentage of Revenue with Trend