1. Proposal Outline
The Influence of Weather and Climate Events
on
Dust, Smoke and Sulfate Events
R. Husar, PI
Response to
EPA STAR RFA
Extreme Event Impacts on Air Quality and Water Quality with a Changing Global Climate
http://epa.gov/ncer/rfa/2011/2011_star_extremeevent.html
Apr 10, 2011

2. General Framework
Atmospheric Effects on Air Quality:
• Emissions (Anthropogenic and Natural)
• Dispersion (Horizontal and Vertical)
• Kinetics (Chem. Reactions & Removal)
• All the above depends on climate
Emissions
• Anthropogenic
• El. Utility (Temp)
• Transportation
• Industrial
Events: • Natural
• Dust (T,Prec,Wind)
• Smoke (T,Prec,Wind)
1. Continental/Hemispherical • Biogenic (T)
Source-Receptor
2. Regional • Dispersion (Vertical and Horizontal)
• HiP stagnations (Circ.)
• LoP Blockage (Circ)
• Loc disp (Wind, MiixH)
• Transformations

3. Continental/Hemispherical Scale Events
• Continental/Hemispherical Scale Events
• Influenced by global emissions, circulation,
precipitation
• AQ – Climate analysis method fro global..????
• AQ and Climate Relevance:
• Demonstrate role global climate
• Tipping points for Regulations
• Mex Smoke >>> Exceptional Event Rule
• Gobi Dust >> Hemispheric Transport Protocol

4. Continental/Hemispheric Dust Events over the US
Gobi dust in spring
Sahara in summer
US-scale fine dust
events are mainly Fine Dust Events, 1992-2003
ug/m3
from
intercontinental
transport

5. Continental/Hemispheric Smoke Events over the US
Stuff-Stuff-Stuff-Stuff-
• Scenario:
Smoke form Mexico causes record PM over the Eastern US.
• Goal:
Detect smoke emission and predict PM and ozone concentration
Support air quality management and transportation safety
• Impacts:
PM and ozone air quality episodes, AQ standard exceedance
Transportation safety risks due to reduced visibility
• Timeline: Record Smoke Impact on PM Concentrations
Routine satellite monitoring of fire and smoke
The smoke event triggers intensified sensing and analysis
The event is documented for science and management use
• Science/Air Quality Information Needs:
Quantitative real-time fire & smoke emission monitoring
PM, ozone forecast (3-5 days) based on smoke emissions data
• Information Technology Needs: Smoke Event
Real-time access to routine and ad-hoc data and models
Analysis tools: browsing, fusion, data/model integration
Delivery of science-based event summary/forecast to air quality and
aviation safety managers and to the public
rhusar@me.wustl.edu, stefan@me.wustl.edu

7. Tools for Continental AQ-Climate Analysis
NAAPS-NAAPS-NAAPS-NAAPS-NAAPS
NOGAPS-NOGAPS-NOGAPS-NOGAPS-

8. REGIONAL
• Regional-Scale Events
• Influenced by regional emissions, circulation,
precipitation
• AQ – Climate analysis method for regional…??
• AQ and Climate Relevance:
• Demonstrate role regional emissions, climate,
precipitation

11. Tools/Methods for for Regional AQ – Climate Analysis

12. Tools/Methods for Regional AQ-Climate Analysis
Possible Drought Effect on PM Coarse in South Texas
• The two dust peeks at Big
Bend have different Al/Si
ratios
• During the year, Al/Si = 0.4
• In July, Al/Si reaches 0.55,
closer to the Al/Si of the
Sahara dust (0.65-0.7)
• The spring peak is
identified as as ‘Local Dust’,
while the July peak is
dominated by Sahara dust.

13. Datasets, Info Sharing, Collaboration..
• Other … tangibles and intangibles

15. Satellite Aerosol Optical Thickness Climatology
SeaWiFS Satellite, Summer 2000 - 2003
60 Percentile
99 Percentile
• Space-Time-Parameter coverage
• GISS datasets

16. What’s in it for AQ Management and Policy