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# The behaviour of interest rates

The Behaviour of Interest Rates in monetary economics

The Behaviour of Interest Rates in monetary economics

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### The behaviour of interest rates

1. 1. Chapter 4: The Behaviour of Interest Rates Prepared by: Mohammad Radzie Osman Muhammad Syazmi Adli Zainal Abidin Nickhlos Ak Jalang Cynthia Bunya
2. 2. Concepts of interest rate and rate of return
3. 3. Interest Rate  Interest is a return on capital. It also refers to the price of money.  For the borrower, interest is a payment for obtaining credit (loan) or the cost of borrowing.  For the lender, it is the amount of funds, valued in terms of money that they receive when they extend credit. It is a reward for delaying their current consumption.
4. 4. Rate of Return (ROR)  Rates of returns are basically returns on investments or rewards of taking risks.  For any security, the ROR is defined as the payments to the owner plus the change in its value, expressed as a fraction of its purchase price.  the return on a bond will not necessarily equal the interest rate (YTM) on that bond.  Rates of returns also can be defined as rewards for giving up current use of funds.  Returns vary according to the investment vehicles being undertaken. For example, the rates of returns on stocks, bonds, savings, etc.
5. 5. Concept of nominal and real interest rates
6. 6. Nominal Interest Rates  Nominal interest rate is the rate of interest that is accrued at some time in the future.  It is the rate of exchange between RM now and RM in the future.  For example, if the nominal interest rate is 10% per annum, then a sum of RM10 borrowed this year, is payable for a sum of RM11 next year.  Nominal interest rate makes no allowance for inflation, that is, it ignores the effects of inflation.
7. 7. Real Interest Rate  Real interest rate is the rate of interest at some time in future after discounting the rate of inflation. The interest rate is adjusted for expected changes in the price level so that it more accurately reflects the true cost of borrowing.  The real interest rate is more accurately defined by the Fisher equation, named for Irving Fisher. The equation states that the nominal interest rate (i) equals the real interest rate is plus the expected rate of inflation. For example, if the nominal interest rate is 10% per annum and the inflation rate is 3%, the real interest rate is really 7%.  Rewriting the equation, we get: i.Real = Nominal – Expected Inflation. ii.Nominal = Real + Expected Inflation.
8. 8. Determination of the market interest rate Determinants of Asset Demand.  Wealth: the total resources owned by the individual, including all assets  Expected Return: the return expected over the next period on one asset relative to alternative assets  Risk: the degree of uncertainty associated with the return on one asset relative to alternative assets  Liquidity: the ease and speed with which an asset can be turned into cash relative to alternative assets
9. 9. Theory of Asset Demand Holding all other factors constant: 1. The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to wealth 2. The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to its expected return relative to alternative assets 3. The quantity demanded of an asset is negatively related to the risk of its returns relative to alternative assets 4. The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to its liquidity relative to alternative assets
10. 10. Loanable Fund Theory- Fisherian Real Interest Rate  In this theory ,Real interest rate is determined by the equilibrium of demand for loanable funds(Investment) and supply of loanable funds(savings).  The theory emphasis on the flow of credit (loanable funds) rather than money stock.  Loanable funds = Savings = Surplus fund ready to lent out. CLASSICAL THEORY
11. 11. Supplier of loanable funds are(Slf) Demand for loanable funds are(Dlf) House hold = Saving Firm = Undistributed profits Federal + state government = budget surplus Increase in money stock Decrease in demand for money House hold= Consumption Firm= Investment Federal + state government = budget Deficit Decreased in money stock Increase in demand for money. Aggregate saving Schedule = Supply schedule for loanable fund Real interest rate = Price of loanable Funds Aggregate Investment Schedule = Demand schedule for loanable funds Real In rate= Price of loanable Funds(Credit) Conclusion :
12. 12. • In diagram 3, IR is determined by the interaction of the agg investment and Aggregate S A. • If IR r1 increase above the equilibrium level 5,There will be an excess supply of loanable and saving exceed desired investment.SA will offer lower interest rate to include deficit units to borrow their excess loanable fund. • The supply of loanable funds comes from people who have extra income they want to save and lend out. • The demand for loanable funds comes from households and firms that wish to borrow to make investments.
13. 13. The Interest Rate Effect A rising price level pushes up interest rates, which in turn lower the consumption of certain goods and services and also lower investment in new plant and equipment:  A rising price level pushes up interest rates and lowers both consumption and investment  A declining price level pushes down interest rates and encourages both consumption and investment
14. 14. Table 1 Response of the Quantity of an Asset Demanded to Changes in Wealth, Expected Returns, Risk, and Liquidity
15. 15. Supply and Demand in the Bond Market • At lower prices (higher interest rates), ceteris paribus, the quantity demanded of bonds is higher: an inverse relationship • At lower prices (higher interest rates), ceteris paribus, the quantity supplied of bonds is lower: a positive relationship
16. 16. Market Equilibrium • Occurs when the amount that people are willing to buy (demand) equals the amount that people are willing to sell (supply) at a given price • Bd = Bs defines the equilibrium (or market clearing) price and interest rate. • When Bd > Bs , there is excess demand, price will rise and interest rate will fall • When Bd < Bs , there is excess supply, price will fall and interest rate will rise
17. 17. Figure 1 Supply and Demand for Bonds
18. 18. Changes in Equilibrium Interest Rates Shifts in the demand for bonds: • Wealth: in an expansion with growing wealth, the demand curve for bonds shifts to the right • Expected Returns: higher expected interest rates in the future lower the expected return for long-term bonds, shifting the demand curve to the left • Expected Inflation: an increase in the expected rate of inflations lowers the expected return for bonds, causing the demand curve to shift to the left • Risk: an increase in the riskiness of bonds causes the demand curve to shift to the left • Liquidity: increased liquidity of bonds results in the demand curve shifting right
19. 19. Figure 2 Shift in the Demand Curve for Bonds
20. 20. Table 2: Factors That Shift the Demand Curve for Bonds
21. 21. Table 3: Factors That Shift the Supply of Bonds
22. 22. Figure 3 Shift in the Supply Curve for Bonds
23. 23. Figure 4 Response to a Change in Expected Inflation
24. 24. Figure 5 Response to a Business Cycle Expansion
25. 25. KEYNESIAN MODEL  Introduced by John Maynard Keynes  Refers to the demand for money, considered as liquidity  Keynes defines the rate of interest as the reward for parting with liquidity for a specified period of time.  According to him, the rate of interest is determined by the demand for and supply of MONEY  Has abandoned the classical view  Money velocity was constant and emphasized the important of interest rate.
26. 26. Transactions Motive  The transactions motive relates to the demand for money or the need of CASH for the current transactions of individual and BUSINESS exchanges.  Individuals hold cash in order to bridge the gap between the receipt of income and its expenditure. (income motive)  The businessmen also need to hold ready cash in order to meet their current needs like payments for raw materials, transport, wages etc. (business motive) Precautionary motive:  Precautionary motive for holding money refers to the desire to hold cash balances for unforeseen contingencies. Individuals hold some cash to provide for illness, accidents, unemployment and other unforeseen contingencies. Similarly, businessmen keep cash in reserve to tide over unfavorable conditions or to gain from unexpected deals.  Keynes holds that the transaction and precautionary motives are relatively interest inelastic, but are highly income elastic. The amount of money held under these two motives (M1) is a function (L1) of the level of income (Y) and is expressed as M1 = L1 (Y)
27. 27. Interest rate Money Demand L1 FIGURE 6
28. 28. Speculative Motive  Refers to people holding money as a store of wealth  Divide the assets that can be used to store wealth into 2 categories:  money  bonds  Interest rate has important role n influencing how much money to hold as a store of wealth  According to Keynes, the higher the rate of interest, the lower the speculative demand for MONEY, and lower the rate of interest, the higher the speculative demand for
29. 29. Determination of the Rate of Interest FIGURE 7
30. 30. Supply and Demand in the Market for Money: The Liquidity Preference Framework Keynesian model that determines the equilibrium interest rate in terms of the supply of and demand for money. There are two main categories of assets that people use to store their wealth: money and bo s s d d s d s d s d s d nds. Total wealth in the economy = B M = B + M Rearranging: B - B = M - M If the market for money is in equilibrium (M = M ), then the bond market is also in equilibrium (B = B ). 
31. 31. Figure 8 Equilibrium in the Market for Money
32. 32. Demand for Money in the Liquidity Preference Framework • As the interest rate increases: – The opportunity cost of holding money increases… – The relative expected return of money decreases… • therefore the quantity demanded of money decreases.
33. 33. Changes in Equilibrium Interest Rates in the Liquidity Preference Framework Shifts in the demand for money: • Income Effect: a higher level of income causes the demand for money at each interest rate to increase and the demand curve to shift to the right • Price-Level Effect: a rise in the price level causes the demand for money at each interest rate to increase and the demand curve to shift to the right Shifts in the demand for money: • Income Effect: a higher level of income causes the demand for money at each interest rate to increase and the demand curve to shift to the right • Price-Level Effect: a rise in the price level causes the demand for money at each interest rate to increase and the demand curve to shift to the right
34. 34. Table 4 Factors That Shift the Demand for and Supply of Money
35. 35. Figure 9 Response to a Change in Income or the Price Level
36. 36. Figure 10 Response to a Change in the Money Supply
37. 37. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
38. 38. Q & A