Amitabh Kundu, Research and Information System for Developing Countries, New Delhi Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia conference “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future Opportunities”. An international conference jointly organized by ReSAKSS-Asia, IFPRI, TDRI, and TVSEP project of Leibniz Universit Hannover with support from USAID and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) at the Dusit Thani Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand December 12–14, 2017.

1. Rural-Urban Migration and Integration of
Labor Market in India
Amitabh Kundu
Research and Information System for Developing
Countries, New Delhi
at
ReSAKSS-Asia Conference: Agriculture and Rural
Transformation in Asia
Dec 12-15, 2017 , Bangkok

2. Percentage share of Different Sectors in Gross Value Added
in India

3. Growth in agriculture sector in India

4. Annual growth in Agriculture Sector

5. Consumption of Different Types of Fertilizer in India in
1,00,000 Tonnes

6. Total Net Inter-State Migration for India
(Economic Survey 2017)

7. Cohort based Inter-State Migration by Log of Per
Capita Income
(Economic Survey 2017)

8. States represented by their cohort level inter state
migration during 1991-2001 and 2001-2011
(Economic Survey 2017)

9. Percentage Distribution
1991-01
2001- 2011
Total increase (in millions) 67.7 90.2
(a) Natural increase on base year
pop and on inter-censal migrants
59.4
48.4
(b) Population of new towns less
declassified towns
6.2
31.8
(c) Net RU migration 21.1 15.5
(d) Increase due to expansion in U
Area and merging of towns
13.0 4.3
Table 1: Decomposition of Total Incremental Urban
Population into Components

10. Table 2: Net Rural Urban Migrants
Net Migrants = Migrants to urban areas from rural areas – Migrants to
rural areas form urban areas
Census
years
Net migrants to urban areas from rural areas during previous
10 years
Migrants for all reasons Mig for employment reasons
Persons Males Females Persons Males Females
1991 10681310 5648861 5032449 2889204 2596430 292774
2001 14328728 7726493 6602235 4905941 4524863 381078
2011 20702215 10322400 10379815 6441381 5742309 699072
Percentage change over previous census
2001 34.15 36.78 31.19 69.80 74.27 30.16
2011 44.48 33.60 57.22 31.30 26.91 83.45

11. Round (year) Rural Urban
Male Female Male Female
64 (2007–2008) 5.4 (6.5) 47.7 (68.6) 25.9 (31.4) 45.6(57.9
55 (July99–Jun 2000)6.9 (9.0) 42.6 (64.5) 25.7 (32.0) 41.8(55.4
49 (Jan–June 1993) 6.5 40.1 23.9 38.2
43 (July87–Ju 1988) 7.4 39.8 26.8 39.6
38(January–Dec’83) 7.2 35.1 27.0 36.6
Migrants (%) in Rural and Urban Areas as per NSS
Census Years
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Total 29.1 30.3 26.9 30.1 37.5
Male 17.5 17.2 14.7 17.0 22.6
Female 41.7 44.3 40.8 44.1 53.2
Table 3a Migrants (%) by Gender in population as per Census

12. Indicator Description Year Mean CV (%)
x1 Percentage of Rural Migrants 1991 26.2 34.0
x2 Percentage of Urban Migrants 1991 35.3 32.6
x3 Percentage of Rural Migrants 2001 29.5 31.9
x4 Percentage of Urban Migrants 2001 39.8 28.1
x5 Percentage of Rural Migrants 2011 35.3 32.3
x6 Percentage of Urban Migrants 2011 49.7 22.2
x7 Percentage of Rural Migrants 1999-00 20.3 55.2
x8 Percentage of Urban Migrants 1999-00 28.6 56.0
x9 Percentage of Rural Migrants 2007-08 22.4 46.9
x10 Percentage of Urban Migrants 2007-08 31.9 43.6
x11 Migrants (%) for Work among Rural Migrants 2011 6.9 69.8
x12 Migrants (%) for Work among Urban Migrants 2011 18.3 33.2
x13 Migrants (%) for Business among Rural Migrants 2011 0.6 79.2
x14 Migrants (%) for Business among Urban Migrants 2011 2.3 77.7
x15 Interstate migrants (%) to total population 1991 6.1 127.8
x16 Net migrants (%) to total population 1991 1.6 430.4
x17 Interstate migrants (%) to total population 2001 6.9 125.6
x18 Net migrants (%) to total population 2001 2.7 288.1
x19 Interstate migrants (%) to total pop NSS 1999-00 4.0 130.4
Table 3(a): Indicators of Migration at State Level 1991-2011

13. Indic. Description Year Mean CV (%)
x21 Gross Irrig Area to Gross Sown Area 2010-11 38.8 63.5
x22 Gross Irrig Area to Gross Sown Area 2013-14 41.1 61.3
x23 Per Hectare Fertilizer Consumption 2010-11 136.8 121.0
x24 Per Hectare Fertilizer Consumption 2014-15 115.4 68.1
x25 Per Hectare Yield of Total Food Grains 2010-11 2030.5 36.8
x26 Per Hectare Yield of Total Food Grains 2014-15 2204.3 32.7
x27 Credit Rs’000 of Com Banks/NSA hec. 2013 303.6 432.1
x28 Credit Dep Ratio of Rural Banks 2015 62.6 43.7
x29 Length of Road in Km per sq. km Area 2014-15 2.4 157.5
x30 Percentage of Poor in Rural Area 2011-12 22.1 52.6
Table 3(b): Indicators of Agricultural Dev at State Level 1991-2015

14. Indicators Description Year Mean CV (%)
x31 Net State Domestic Prod at 2011-12 Prices 2011-12 80176.2 60.2
x32 NSDP at 2011-12 Prices 2014-15 89140.6 51.7
x33 Gross Value Added in Ind per Worker 2010-11 999567.9 96.9
x34 Gross Value Added in Ind per Worker 2014-15 1159966.7 75.5
x35 Gross Capital Format in Ind per Worker 2010-11 459443.5 74.9
x36 Gross Capital Format in Ind per Worker 2014-15 281261.7 83.1
x37 Medium & SSI Prod per Worker 2006-07 160015.8 77.1
x38 Per Capita availability of Power (KWH) 2014-15 935.2 64.5
x39 Credit Deposit Ratio of Com Banks 2015 59.3 46.2
x40 Credit to Ind Worker (Rs) by Com Banks 2014 3336412.7 328.8
x41 Percentage of Poor in Urban Area 2011-12 13.4 61.2
x42 Percentage of Urban Population 1991 27.0 61.5
x43 Percentage of Urban Population 2001 29.4 59.2
x44 Percentage of Urban Population 2011 34.2 52.9
x45 Percentage of Urban Population NSS 1999-00 27.3 57.5
x46 Percentage of Urban Population NSS 2007-08 30.0 59.0
Table 3(c): Ind. of Econ and Ind Dev at State Level 1991-2015

15. The AD curve represents a
rectangular Hyperbola wherein
the areas at all points (height X
base) work out as same

16. x21 x22 x23 x24 x25 x26 x27 x28 x29 x30
x1 .276 .277 .199 .201 .261 .353 .404* .412* .442* -.419*
x2 -.079 -.090 -.068 -.101 .013 .102 .055 -.232 .026 -.328
x3 .258 .252 .359 .265 .277 .332 .410* .394* .481** -.303
x4 -.129 -.154 .036 -.064 .051 .109 .060 -.326 .088 -.195
x5 .133 .114 .334 .175 .296 .358* .191 .662** .336 -.429*
x6 -.025 -.069 .103 .048 .135 .171 -.050 -.018 -.009 -.259
x7 .287 .233 .420* .415* .058 .035 -.304 .496* -.230 -.424*
x8 .200 .142 .294 .310 .031 -.004 -.307 .200 -.260 -.440*
x9 .375* .360 .261 .421* .209 .214 .233 .516** .235 -.434*
x10 .165 .148 .166 .343 .072 .099 .160 .265 .169 -.395*
x11 -.119 -.117 -.206 -.260 .100 .129 .530** -.407* .439* -.142
x12 -.126 -.104 -.194 -.107 -.130 -.068 .277 -.338 .095 -.012
x13 -.451* -.465** -.268 -.424* -.179 -.168 -.142 -.538** -.130 .178
x14 -.466** -.473** -.291 -.338 -.242 -.235 -.185 -.491** -.157 .250
x15 .320 .357 .289 .093 .379 .473* .786** .090 .771** -.262
x16 .260 .310 .086 -.054 .339 .433* .854** -.072 .834** -.062
x17 .304 .338 .286 .097 .381* .461* .741** .061 .735** -.254
x18 .195 .233 .165 .006 .307 .393* .780** .049 .756** -.180
x19 .358 .343 .751** .445* .232 .283 .013 .292 .115 -.378*
Table 4(a) : Correlations of the Indicators of Migration & Agril Devment

17. x31 x32 x33 x34 x35 x36 x37 x38 x39 x40 x41 x42 x43 x44 x45 x46
x1 .646** .662** .227 .483* .142 .409* .459* .683** .346 .410* -.430* .381* .420* .425* .354 .457*
x2 .450* .468* .609** .726** .316 .154 .282 .356 -.119 .067 -.364 -.198 -.133 -.115 -.183 -.093
x3 .786** .778** .235 .489** .017 .257 .577** .759** .282 .382* -.373* .578** .613** .624** .597** .639**
x4 .542** .553** .491** .637** .105 .124 .379* .401* -.159 .065 -.361* .005 .068 .101 .065 .082
x5 .827** .764** .175 .422* -.084 .107 .617** .750** .195 .146 -.452* .456** .505** .588** .513** .513**
x6 .635** .618** .437* .643** .113 .145 .447* .547** -.014 -.054 -.379* .016 .106 .158 .096 .130
x7 .223 .232 .141 .346 .162 .335 .515** .512** .391* -.380 -.358 -.059 -.046 -.002 .029 -.044
x8 .170 .190 .274 .386 .139 .147 .418* .366 .258 -.377 -.311 -.211 -.208 -.144 -.077 -.188
x9 .327 .432* .263 .399* .247 .414* .291 .498** .581** .256 -.390* .235 .219 .235 .235 .226
x10 .396* .468* .566** .632** .252 .264 .214 .380* .318 .173 -.354 .057 .044 .096 .118 .093
x11 .440* .537** .378* .322 -.167 -.182 .001 .115 -.001 .610** -.244 .322 .350 .395* .327 .379*
x12 .234 .341 .484** .473** .359 .245 -.068 .132 .138 .349 -.188 .065 .101 .049 .094 .147
x13 -.036 -.074 .108 -.023 -.230 -.295 -.216 -.323 -.444* -.135 .036 -.160 -.135 -.084 -.164 -.182
x14 -.152 -.179 .124 .006 -.024 -.078 -.314 -.366* -.399* -.163 .140 -.340 -.326 -.301 -.358 -.396*
x15 .676** .724** .148 .244 -.063 .063 .483* .576** .223 .751** -.249 .757** .772** .745** .733** .756**
x16 .468* .506** -.193 -.051 -.093 .178 .294 .423* .270 .866** -.064 .772** .777** .719** .739** .784**
x17 .722** .760** .193 .308 -.036 .084 .498** .606** .190 .707** -.256 .737** .758** .738** .725** .746**
x18 .697** .740** .232 .321 .026 .156 .306 .509** .193 .791** -.240 .731** .755** .734** .680** .740**
x19 .538** .513** .164 .322 -.041 .039 .876** .711** .144 -.097 -.381* .401* .421* .427* .487** .373
x20 .726** .794** .168 .267 -.051 .096 .490** .662** .375* .771** -.331 .821** .817** .815** .822** .799**
Table 4(b) : Correlations of the Indic of Migration and Eco & Indt. Dev

18. Conclusions ana Policy Perspectives
• Indicators of migration correlates positively with those
reflecting agricultural, infrastructural (including road,
electricity and credit) development
• The correlations of migration with industrialisation and
urban development are weak. This can be attributed to
capital intensive industrial development and exclusionary
urbanisation
• Rural transformation, given the low rate of urbanisation and
sluggish sectoral shift towards industries and services, will
be challenging. The possibility of absorbing migrant labour
within and outside agriculture in agriculturally developed
regions must therefore not be dismissed.