Strategic Analysis to inform Agricultural Policy ReSAKSS ECA stakeholder workshop, 11th June, 2012

1. Synthesis Report on Climate Change, Agriculture and food
Security in the Comesa Region: Links between research and
policy
Presented at the
ReSAKSS Stakeholder Workshop on
Strategic Analysis to inform Agricultural Policy
11th June, 2012
WILFRED NYANGENA

2. Presentation Outline
 Background
 Study objectives
 State of climate change knowledge within COMESA
 Responding to climate change for food and livelihood
security: Success Stories
 Summary, conclusion and policy implications

3. Background (1)
 Climate change poses a serious risk to agricultural
production and food security in Africa.
 In SSA, negative impacts are expected from projected
warming and rainfall deficits. These effects are likely to
be more serious due to:
 Heavy dependence of the region on agriculture & natural
resources
 Over-reliance on rain-fed agriculture
 Weak capacity to adapt to climate change
 The poor and marginalized groups are likely to suffer
more.

4. Background (2)
 Predicted the negative impacts of climate change:
 Decline in crop yields leading to food insecurity by as much as
50% due to reduced growing seasons and increased temperatures
(IPCC)
 Increase in crop and livestock pests and diseases
 Increase in vector borne diseases such as Rift Valley fever, and
declining levels of fresh water bodies
 This could jeopardize achievement developmental of
targets
 Many policies, programmes & projects are being
implemented to respond to anticipated CC effects.
Whether they are supported by scientific evidence
remains unclear

5. Study Objectives
 Review literature on scientific research on climate change in the
COMESA region
 Review policies, programmes & projects being implemented and
evaluate how far they are informed by scientific evidence
 Draft a synthesis Report to inform researchers, policy makers, RECs
and other stakeholders. Special focus is paid to:
 Climate science evidence, its accuracy and suitability for the
region.
 Likely impacts of CC on food production systems and food
security.
 Suggestions on appropriate adaptation practices based on existing
evidence.

6. Research Method(s)
 In developing this synthesis we did a literature search of
several peer reviewed articles, books, case studies on
food security and climate change in the region.
 A summary of the area of coverage, issues, context,
theme is provided in the appendix of the main report.
 The case studies enabled us to focus on a specific
project and its context.
 The whole approach produced a richer understanding of
issues and dynamics around food security and climate
change.

7. State of CC knowledge in the COMESA
region
 Climate Science and Trends:
 GHGs emissions approaching upper limit of the IPCC projected
range
 Increased frequency of weather extremes
 About 600 million people in the region could face hunger and
additional agricultural crop losses of an estimated $ 26 billion by
2060 (IPCC 2007).
 But too little is understood about the African climate, its drivers
and their links to global warming
 Obvious implication is that we cannot be too confident about the
major climate trends for the continent and even individual
countries.

8. State of CC knowledge in the COMESA
region
 The challenges with using regional models as PRECIS & GCM:
 Only in few locations is the local data available in sufficient
quality and quantity
 lack of regular, detailed information on the African weather
 Vast areas remain unmonitored which makes it very difficult
to predict with any degree of accuracy

9. State of CC knowledge in the COMESA
region
Social, Economic and Environmental Disruption:
 Agriculture and food security will be greatly affected by climate
change in SSA
 African countries may lose up to 47% of their agricultural revenue
because of global warming
 Hydrological systems & water resources will also be negatively
impacted
 But all studies reviewed have some glaring weaknesses or omissions:
 Most analyze climate change impacts on African agriculture in isolation .
They disregard how changes in the global demand and supply patterns
will affect the production and profitability of agricultural systems.
 There’s little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural
impacts would affect economic livelihoods.
 Thus policy makers are not able to determine gainers &
losers, and the magnitudes of gains or lose

10. Adaptation to climate change in the COMESA region
 Many initiatives have attempted:
 Livelihood diversification
 Migration from affected areas
 Development & adoption of appropriate technologies/innovations
 Investment in infrastructure & public welfare
 Use of indigenous knowledge
 Climate Smart Agriculture→which has its serious limitations
 Adaptation to climate change has been hampered by:
 Lack of awareness, induced by endemic poverty levels
 Limited and/or lacking policy which inhibit innovative adaptation
of climate change technologies.
 Lack of pool of resources on which farmers can rely in
determining the right adaptation strategies
 Lack of financial capital among already impoverished farmers
 The region, thus, needs innovative and proactive adaptation
strategies to empower the communities

11. Regional CC Adaptation Initiatives
 Within EAC→ Kenya has NCCRS; the rest have NAPAS/NAMAS
 EAC has formulated CC Policy
 COMESA has CC initiative that seeks to address CC & to build
economic & social resilience
 There is little coordination of the regional initiatives to avoid
overlaps
 Also, it is not clear to what extent these initiatives are informed by
science
 In 2011,EAC-COMESA-SADC Tripartite launched a five-year
climate change strategy to harmonize climate change programs by
the three regional blocs for successful adaptation and mitigation
actions

12. CC Mitigation in the COMESA region
 A number of mitigation options have been identified:
 Carbon trading platforms→ unfortunately SSA is marginalized in carbon
markets
 CDM projects which have mainly targeted the energy sector, overlooking
agriculture
 The mitigation potential of the agricultural sector cannot be fully
exploited under the CDM because:
 Uncertainties in measurement of carbon sequestration potential and
reduction of GHG emissions has made it difficult for agricultural projects
to be included under CDM
 WB and FAO have been at the forefront in promoting carbon
trading initiatives in the agriculture sector

13. CC Mitigation in the COMESA region…..
 WB/FAO have encouraged farmers to utilize agricultural practices
that maximize carbon stored in their fields
 The logic is that this carbon can then be measured, valued and traded on the
market
 Creation of soil carbon credit markets is believed would increase
small-farm productivity and mobilize private sector involvement in
the sector
 However, participating in the carbon markets poses huge challenges
to smallholder farmers:
 Huge costs involved in measurement and verification of the change in carbon
emissions
 Most farmers have < 1 ha farmlands hence the amount of money they would
receive from the carbon sequestered/year is likely to be very minute
 Technologies that increase soil carbon storage is quite costly
 Agricultural carbon sequestration from soil requires long term commitment
and involve binding farmers to certain types of agricultural practices and land
use patterns
 Smallholders could lack requisite information

14. Climate financing in the COMESA region
 Climate adaptation and mitigation are expensive activities to
finance
 CDM has been one of the major sources of carbon financing but
many countries in the region have been unable to take full
advantage of it due to:
 Complex and stringent procedure to safeguard the integrity of the emission
reduction credits
 The fact that Africa is a relatively small global player in terms of emission
reduction
 Besides CDM, voluntary markets are evolving rather rapidly but
quantitative data is lacking
 Basically, climate change adaptation or mitigation financing in the
region remains low, and in some cases biased towards specific
projects, mainly in the energy sector

15. Responding to CC for food and livelihood security: Case Studies
Woodlot management in Makete District, Tanzania
 Before the project there was unsustainable land use which led to
ecological degradation and limited farm productivity.
 Tanzania government and local communities, supported by
development partners introduced woodlot management to improve
smallholder livelihoods.
 User groups were assisted to develop their own woodlot operational
plans and rules, in setting rates and prices for products and in
determining how surplus income would be shared or spent.
 Results:
 Increased area under trees as well as the density of cover.
 Those working in woodland management and marketing of wood products
benefited from research, gaining knowledge in species selection, land
preparation, field planting and spacing, woodlot management, and marketing
channels for wood products.
 Increased community income
 Makete District government achieved a 64% increase in council revenue
through timber sales royalties

16. Case Studies…..
Feed-in tariffs in Kenya
 Both biomass and petroleum are unsustainable owing to
exhaustibility of biomass sources and high and unstable oil
prices.
 The Kenyan government realized the potential of renewable
energy
 In 2008 the government introduced feed-in tariffs
 Feed-in tariff is a policy instrument that compels the national
grid operator to purchase electricity from renewable energy
sources at a pre-determined price which is attractive enough
for new investments in the renewable energy sector
 It is expected that it will enhance production of renewable
energy; create employment and enhance poverty alleviation in
rural areas; and increase income opportunities for business
development.

17. Summary and Conclusion (1)
 Climate change is real and its effects are predicted to worsen, with
serious implications on food security, incomes and livelihood
systems.
 Most analyses have been done on large scales and this is likely to hide
the actual micro-level implications.
 It’s also evident that there are very few peer reviewed papers by
African scientists on practically all aspects of climate change
 Involvement of more foreign experts in analysis is perhaps an
indication that either local capacity is lacking or there are no
research funds or interest from local institutions.
 There is need to build a broad consensus now through credible
climate change science covering various regions of Africa in better
detail.

18. Summary and Conclusion (2)
 Governments have reacted by formulating policies and strategies to
deal with climate change, both at national and regional levels. Main
challenge lies in:
 Implementation of the identified priorities, a step that remains largely unfulfilled
due to financial, technical and human capacity constraints
 Priority identification which may not be well embedded on science given the
paucity of precise information on climate change at local scales.
 Despite its importance, little effort has been made to incorporate local
knowledge into formal climate change adaptation and mitigation
strategies
 No technological “silver bullet” that will quickly and painlessly
transform contemporary SSA
 Long term targets for emissions reduction are essential if society is desirous to
reduce the risk of dangerous climate change to acceptable levels

19. Policy issues
 Need for long-term investment towards building local capacity
 Rather than propose CSA, we should handle the well-known
traditional barriers to existing agricultural practices (e.g. greater
investment in critical infrastructure such as water, fertilizer use)
for ensuring food security
 Need to improve the national and regional meteorological
services to provide better weather forecasts that reach
smallholder farmers
 Enhance early warning systems
 Need for a healthy relationship between scientific knowledge
and traditional indigenous knowledge especially in SSA where
technology for prediction and modeling is least developed.

20. The End
Thank You !
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